It Would Be Silly For the Twins to Trade Away a Starting Pitcher

[Matthew Taylor]

The trade deadline is approaching quickly and rumors are swirling. The latest rumor is that the Twins are receiving calls on Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Trading either of them, or any starting pitcher, would be a big mistake.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Because of the depth of starting pitching that the Minnesota Twins have this season, a common take from Twins fans this summer has been that the team could afford to trade away some of that starting pitching depth in exchange for hitting or relief pitching.

That take has only garnered more supporters after the latest piece of news from Dan Hayes that the Twins have been receiving calls from rival teams on both Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. While the principle of the idea sounds rational, trading from a position of strength to acquire positions of need, it would be extremely unwise to make such a move.

The first reason why it would be unwise to trade away a starting pitcher is because of how much the Twins have invested to get the starting rotation that they have. For years and years, the Twins have struggled with both high-end starting pitching as well as starting pitching depth. After multiple trades over the past two seasons, the Twins have finally built a starting rotation with both top-end talent and depth, and now there is clamoring to trade that away. Starting rotation is the hardest thing to acquire in baseball, and the Twins gave away some key assets to get what they have. They should not trade that away now.

The second reason why it would be unwise to trade away a starting pitcher is because of the lack of return they would get from those starting pitchers. The two starters that would make the most sense to trade away would be their two impending free agents, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. However, because both of them are impending free agents, the return for either of them would not be something so great that it would be worth trading away one of your top-end starters (Gray) or your key depth pieces (Maeda). 

Third, the Twins shouldn’t trade away any of their starting pitchers because of how quickly things can flip when it comes to major-league pitching. The moment that you think you are flush with starting pitching depth is the moment that two pitchers get injured and you’re scrambling to fill their spots with AAA players.  Go back to 2019 when the Minnesota Twins had what appeared to be a solid playoff pitching rotation before Michael Pineda got suspended and the Twins found themselves with Randy Dobnak on the mound in Yankee Stadium.

Finally, while the Twins have their best starting rotation in years, the group that was once elite isn’t looking quite as elite as they looked a month ago. Since June 1, the Minnesota Twins have the ninth ranked rotation in the American League with an ERA of 4.44. We should no longer look at the starting pitching as a huge strength from which we can afford to trade away. The Twins will need every piece of their rotation down the stretch to eke out the American League Central and put forward the best possible playoff rotation.

Do you think the Twins should consider trading away a starting pitcher? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[jorgenswest]

11 minutes ago, Matthew Taylor said:

The second reason why it would be unwise to trade away a starting pitcher is because of the lack of return they would get from those starting pitchers.

Consider? Absolutely yes.

If you are correct in your assessment about the return the Twins listen and say no. If Verlander is only willing to go to the Astros then the Orioles and Dodgers and maybe others will be competing for a small supply of starting pitchers. That demand may drive the return higher than your assessment. 

[TwinkieFan4life]

Article starts: We can't trade away starting pitchers because we worked so hard to acquire them.

Contradictory statement:  We shouldn't trade our starters because the return won't be good because they will be gone at the end of the season.

THIS IS NOT HARD

Team is not good. Trade players on expiring deals if the return is attractive.  Don't just give them away.  I have zero hope for this team making a postseason run.  I think their odds of winning a WS are about the same with or without these two starters (under 2 percent).

[matt]

Trade Sonny back to the Reds for one of their too many infielders or outfielders or both.

[Karbo]

I agree with Twinkiefan. Listen to all offers. If they can pick up a couple of good players at positions of weakness, that can help beyond this season, maybe do a deal. But I would be against giving away a good prospect for a rental as this team is more than a player or two away from being a legitimate WS contender.

[Blyleven2011]

It wouldn't be silly at all to trade 1 of the 2 pitcher's  ( gray or maeda ) ...

What we traded away last deadline  and got nothing in return  ( j. Lopez and mahle  )  ...

2 expiring contracts it would be okay to try and recapture some talent by trading one or the other  ....

Twins could still likely win the division but have no chance of winning the world series ...

[jishfish]

I guarantee if we trade away either Gray or Maeda, at least one of our current rotation members will be injured by the end of this STL series. I don't make the rules, but I've been a MN sports fan for way too long to know that that's just how it will happen. 

Get another RP, maybe get a RHH bat and just ride this out with the rotation as it is. Give Sonny the QO at the end of the year and he either comes back or we get a comp. pick. I really think trading out of the one area of our team that's actually been good this year is such a galaxy brain move with so much potential to backfire.

[Aggies7]

Teams overpay for starting pitching at the deadline. See: twins last year 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Trading one of them should be considered. They will probably only try to keep one of them for 24 so try to get something for the one they are going to let walk. If I was the GM it would Gray (thank god I'm not) as Maeda has looked good after coming back and has his tommy john out of the way, and Gray is probably due for one. I think the return could be better than expected due to demand.

[Jocko87]

Agreed, unless someone blows them away. Nobody is untouchable. That said, no such thing as too much pitching and it's really the only chance for a inside straight draw in the playoffs.

There will be several different ways to use them all, 6 man rotation, someone or multiple someones to the bullpen or unfortunate injuries. I think Kuechel will get some starts to see if he can get major league hitters out and eat some innings. Varland in the pen is very interesting to me but I'd hold off on Maeda as long as possible.

Call me crazy but there is still an outside chance of a qualifying offer on Kenta but he has to start and pitch well for the rest of the way to get there. Gray QO is obvious two way value to keep.

[USAFChief]

Concur.

More cowardly than silly though, if you ask me.

 

[jorgenswest]

37 minutes ago, jishfish said:

 

I guarantee if we trade away either Gray or Maeda, at least one of our current rotation members will be injured by the end of this STL series

 

That is a real risk. However there is also the real risk that Gray or Maeda will come up with an injury giving them very little iver the Twins remaining control.

[nicksaviking]

Gray's not looking so hot lately, and he won't be here next year. Maybe you could trade Gray to recoup much of the prospect loss the team would give up for another controllable starter like Eduardo Rodriguez.

Still, I think the front office has been told they aren't allowed to make any more major moves.

[MangLitch]

I think this is fairly simple.

Gray - If you can get more value than a Comp Round pick in next year's draft + the remaining two months of starts... you do it. Everyone saying that the QO is a given hasn't followed the Twins long enough. Injury is always a risk. 

Maeda - I would have to be blown away here. Not that he is that valuable, but that he is a stabilizer in the rotation and I wouldn't just give him away because he could leave this offseason. He has a lot of upside for the rest of the year. 

I wouldn't get attached here. The Twins are getting bounced in the first round if they don't implode before then (like last year). Make solid moves now and hope some of your depth is ready. Would be refreshing to have our cake and eat it too for once. Then maybe this offseason our front office actually tries to address some KNOWN weaknesses in the bullpen and the lineup

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

There is a couple things at play.  The first being it appears the Twins want to make a spot for Keuchel.  I don't know if this is smart or not,  he has looked good in AAA so far.   

The second is what is the return.  In regards to Sonny Gray there are moving parts that greatly affect is worth.   The first is his performance has been diminishing throughout the season.  Second Twins could offer qualifying offer and get a 1st or second round pick if he signs elsewhere.  If he were to retire would get nothing.  Most likely unless blown away with an offer you keep Sonny for the remainder of the season.  

Maeda,  may have some value especially the way he has pitched since the all star break.   We will see what the outcome is today.  

[Unwinder]

I think I personally believe in the Kuechelaissance enough that I won't be utterly furious if they trade Maeda to fill holes, though my preferred outcome, as always, would be for the Twins to get everything they need easily without giving up anyone I like.

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I think I personally believe in the Kuechelaissance enough that I won't be utterly furious if they trade Maeda to fill holes, though my preferred outcome, as always, would be for the Twins to get everything they need easily without giving up anyone I like.

I personally believe that I won't be utterly furious.

[Unwinder]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

I personally believe that I won't be utterly furious.

trade deadline is a time for bold statements

[tony&rodney]

Trade Gray and keep Maeda.

However, that is assuming that any teams are actually interested in Gray. The Twins would need fair value for Sonny.

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

Ladies and Gentlemen - THIS IS NOT A PLAYOFF TEAM!!!  Sorry, but if your only ambition as a Twins fan is to just get into the playoffs by default and then get swept out by the Rangers or Astros and consider that a great season then you should probably stop reading now,

If Gray were going to sign an extension with the Twins he would have done it by now.  He WILL NOT continue to play for Rocco.  That bridge has long since been burned.  He 100% needs to be traded today as he could easily command either two better prospects and/or a bullpen arm with some years of control.

Maeda is 35 years old and, again, if there were an extension in his future it would have been done by now.  The Twins do not have any intention to bring him back.  There is no realistic room for him in the rotation next year and he wouldn't come back here just to be the long man out of the bullpen.  His return won't be great, but it would be something and again, maybe the Twins can secure a RP with some years of control.  If not, take a lottery ticket prospect.

This team will be so much better next year - addition by subtraction.  Kepler, Polanco, and Gallo are gone and replaced with Wallner, Larnach, and Lewis.  To give up more prospects for moves like they made last year at the deadline is criminal considering how much better this team will be in 2024 without bringing anybody new in today.

 

[Teflon]

Seeing as Gray and Maeda are both free agents to-be and the Twins are contenders only because they're the Eddie the Eagle of MLB this season, at least one of those pitchers should be traded for a player with some estimated future value. If it's Maeda that's traded, the Twins can make Gray a qualifying offer for next season to ensure they get a compensatory draft pick when he invariable signs with another team. That seems like the best case scenario.

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

Teams overpay for starting pitching at the deadline. See: twins last year 

Sadly, this FO doesn't have the luxury of finding another trade partner as foolish as they were last year.

[gunnarthor]

I disagree with pretty much everything in this article. But I do think the Twins will end up hanging onto both Maeda and Gray so it'll be a moot point. 

[IaBeanCounter]

48 minutes ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Ladies and Gentlemen - THIS IS NOT A PLAYOFF TEAM!!!  Sorry, but if your only ambition as a Twins fan is to just get into the playoffs by default and then get swept out by the Rangers or Astros and consider that a great season then you should probably stop reading now.

If Gray were going to sign an extension with the Twins he would have done it by now.  He WILL NOT continue to play for Rocco.  That bridge has long since been burned.  He 100% needs to be traded today as he could easily command either two better prospects and/or a bullpen arm with some years of control.

Maeda is 35 years old and, again, if there were an extension in his future it would have been done by now.  The Twins do not have any intention to bring him back.  There is no realistic room for him in the rotation next year and he wouldn't come back here just to be the long man out of the bullpen.  His return won't be great, but it would be something and again, maybe the Twins can secure a RP with some years of control.  If not, take a lottery ticket prospect.

This team will be so much better next year - addition by subtraction.  Kepler, Polanco, and Gallo are gone and replaced with Wallner, Larnach, and Lewis.  To give up more prospects for moves like they made last year at the deadline is criminal considering how much better this team will be in 2024 without bringing anybody new in today.

 

I think a playoff team is any team that qualifies, either by winning their division or a wild card spot.  I'm old enough to remember the '87 Twins who I am sure were long odds to win the World Series over Detroit and St. Louis.  But they did.  It only takes a team getting hot at the right time.

I concur that Gray won't be here next year, but I'm not sure the Twins would get back more the what they would get if the made a QO.  It wouldn't surprise me if Maeda came back next year, or if he keeps pitching like he has since coming off the IL he could receive a QO.

Cleveland just traded a starter, but they seem to be much better than the Twins at drafting and developing good starters.  I don't think the Twins have that luxury.  I would like to see them call Keuchel up to allow SP to skip a start rather the a 6 man rotation.

Getting back to the playoffs, if Lewis, Krilloff and Buxton can be heathy I believe a line up of Correa SS, Polanco 2B, Jullien DH, Krilloff 1B, Lewis 3B, Kepler RF, Buxton CF, Wallner or RH trade LF, Jeffer C would match up well against any other playoff team.  Maeda, Gray, Lopez, and the hot hand of Ryan, Ober or Keuchel as starters.  Duran, Jax, Thilbar, LH trade, Stewart, and Pagan as relivers.  

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Falvey agrees, or he was told to sleep all day, because the Twins have not completed any trades. Well, at least if the deadline is the deadline. Times up, the Twins did not make a trade, and will go with the players they have on their roster. The Twins have some decent baseball players and the last two months will be a bit of a referendum on the current front office. I do not expect that they will be replaced in any event.

[specialiststeve]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Falvey agrees, or he was told to sleep all day, because the Twins have not completed any trades. Well, at least if the deadline is the deadline. Times up, the Twins did not make a trade, and will go with the players they have on their roster. The Twins have some decent baseball players and the last two months will be a bit of a referendum on the current front office. I do not expect that they will be replaced in any event.

Completely ridiculous that this team sat on its hands! 

I have defended this front office but this one is a head scratcher. 

Disagree with the writer... biggest mistake is NOT moving the starters ... now we get NOTHING. Oh a chance we get a draft pick IF Sonny signs a big contract.. or he could retire like he says he might and we get nothing... 

No right handed bat ... keeping the left handed log jam... Not DFA'ing Gallo... Dumbness is rampant! 

[TwinkieFan4life]

It would be silly to neither buy or sell.  I could defend upgrading the roster and holding on to starting pitching to make a run.  I personally preferred to sell starting pitching and close out the year with Varland and Kuechal.  Nope, we are going to move forward doing nothing.  Maybe another players only reset lol.

I just hope enough of the roster gets healthy at the same time and Wallner hits enough to force leadership to dfa Gallo.  I really hate watching him play.