Rumor: MLBTR Twins Rumor Roundup

[TwinsDr2021]

40 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

To me there are two evaluative facts that really help determine what the Twins should do. First, it's becoming more and more obvious that this team is not a WS contending team in 2023 and they are not one or two decent vets away from being a contender. Second, they have some interesting/exciting younger players that need MLB time and ABs to improve our chances of being a contender in 2024 and beyond. 

If you start there, the approach should be pretty obvious. Sell vets that don't factor in next year, both those that have value and those that are blocking guys you think really can help in 2024 and beyond. Do - Sell Gallo immediately. Trade Gray if you think the return is better than pick 35-40 in next years draft. Sell Maeda if you aren't planning on a new contract or don't think you can re-sign him. Trade for prospects preferably high minors pitching.  Don't - trade prospects for vets on expiring contracts or trade prospects like Wallner, Larnach, etc. Don't give up much for a veteran middle reliever. 

Last weekend showed that this team just doesn't have the chops to be much of a contender. Live or die with the guys that will help you next year - Wallner, Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach, Williams, Castro, Balazovic, Varland (if you trade a starter). To me, that's how you get out of this .500ish cycle and create a potential winner, not by trading for another Floro, promoting Kuechel, giving Gallo and Solano time at 1B while Kirilloff is out, keeping Larnach in AAA so MAT can get ABs, etc.....

 

If they weren't good enough last year and aren't good enough this year, how the heck do you expect basically the same group plus younger guys to be next year or the year after that? 

With that said, they should be doing some selling and some buying this year.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I'd get Tommy Pham. Has always hit well in the post-season and if the Twins get there, they need to have some guys that aren't afraid of the moment.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

58 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

To me there are two evaluative facts that really help determine what the Twins should do. First, it's becoming more and more obvious that this team is not a WS contending team in 2023 and they are not one or two decent vets away from being a contender. Second, they have some interesting/exciting younger players that need MLB time and ABs to improve our chances of being a contender in 2024 and beyond. 

If you start there, the approach should be pretty obvious. Sell vets that don't factor in next year, both those that have value and those that are blocking guys you think really can help in 2024 and beyond. Do - Sell Gallo immediately. Trade Gray if you think the return is better than pick 35-40 in next years draft. Sell Maeda if you aren't planning on a new contract or don't think you can re-sign him. Trade for prospects preferably high minors pitching.  Don't - trade prospects for vets on expiring contracts or trade prospects like Wallner, Larnach, etc. Don't give up much for a veteran middle reliever. 

Last weekend showed that this team just doesn't have the chops to be much of a contender. Live or die with the guys that will help you next year - Wallner, Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach, Williams, Castro, Balazovic, Varland (if you trade a starter). To me, that's how you get out of this .500ish cycle and create a potential winner, not by trading for another Floro, promoting Kuechel, giving Gallo and Solano time at 1B while Kirilloff is out, keeping Larnach in AAA so MAT can get ABs, etc.....

 

I'm not sure on Larnach, or even Wallner. The sample size on Larnach is growing and its approaching the realm of, he is who he is. And for Wallner, he seems like he's a player out of the 1980s. Doesn't have elite athleticism and can hit the ball a mile and also strike out 200 times in a season. I don't see either guy being a player that will help the Twins win in 2023 or 2024. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Not to spam this thread with another post - but the question I have - how much autonomy does the FO have right now? If they basically have carte blanche to make moves, then I think they'll be somewhat aggressive because failing to win the division in 2023 might be a ticket out of town. If the Pohlad's are gun shy after last year's debacle at the deadline, then I think we marginal tweaks with a bullpen arm - not necessarily high leverage - and a RH bat.

[LA Vikes Fan]

25 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I'm not sure on Larnach, or even Wallner. The sample size on Larnach is growing and its approaching the realm of, he is who he is. And for Wallner, he seems like he's a player out of the 1980s. Doesn't have elite athleticism and can hit the ball a mile and also strike out 200 times in a season. I don't see either guy being a player that will help the Twins win in 2023 or 2024. 

You may be right. My point is we need to find that out now, not next year or the year after. Open up space by trading/DFAing Gallo. Put Wallner and Larnach in the lineup 4-5 days a week, including against LH pitching, and see how they perform. With Kirilloff out, play Kepler and Larnach at RF and 1B or bring up Williams - don't waste those ABs on a combo of Gallo and a 35 year old Solano. If they blossom, great. If not, you know they aren't part of the future and you move on.  Playing a guy like Gallo or Solano (or even Kepler) that we know isn't part of the future does us little good now and absolutely no good going forward. 

On the other hand if the FO is convinced that Larnach isn't part of the future he should be actively shopped now.  Put him in a package with Gray or Maeda, or even Farmer, to improve the return. 

My basic point is that adding at the margins this year does nothing but leave us as a marginal maybe playoff team at best. I think the only path to improvement is in our younger guys; we won't be trading for a guy who really improves the current team and we don't spend that kind of money in free agency.  I just don't like being in the slightly above mediocre middle and I  don't see another way out. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You may be right. My point is we need to find that out now, not next year or the year after. Open up space by trading/DFAing Gallo. Put Wallner and Larnach in the lineup 4-5 days a week, including against LH pitching, and see how they perform. With Kirilloff out, play Kepler and Larnach at RF and 1B or bring up Williams - don't waste those ABs on a combo of Gallo and a 35 year old Solano. If they blossom, great. If not, you know they aren't part of the future and you move on.  Playing a guy like Gallo or Solano (or even Kepler) that we know isn't part of the future does us little good now and absolutely no good going forward. 

On the other hand if the FO is convinced that Larnach isn't part of the future he should be actively shopped now.  Put him in a package with Gray or Maeda, or even Farmer, to improve the return. 

My basic point is that adding at the margins this year does nothing but leave us as a marginal maybe playoff team at best. I think the only path to improvement is in our younger guys; we won't be trading for a guy who really improves the current team and we don't spend that kind of money in free agency.  I just don't like being in the slightly above mediocre middle and I  don't see another way out. 

Fair and I can't really argue with anything you said. I'm firmly in the camp though that neither Larnach nor Wallner will be players you can win with and they should be shopped while it is still reasonable to call them 'prospects'.

[Johnny Ringo]

The team is hamstrung by two things. The FO's disastrous tradeline decisions in 2022 which left the prospect cupboard bare and the fact that the team just isn't that good. They don't have the capital to do mega trades if they wanted to and the team is not viable enough to warrant it if they did.  

I would trade Maeda for a LH reliever and/or a RH bat and a prospect or two. You can then call up Keuchel. I think the impact to the starting  rotation is marginal and you improve the team next year and beyond. I would also DFA Gallo. His ongoing presence can only be attributed to the FO's ego. It's a headscratcher. 

I don't think the team can or should do much more.  

[PKMNTWINS]

Personally, I'd like to see us sell more than buy. While you could argue that the team has underperformed and hopefully pick up the pace in the 2nd half, I'm just not sure how confident I feel about this team in the postseason. I wouldn't mind seeing Gray or Maeda traded for prospects or younger players and bolster our farm system. I am all for DFA'ing Gallo if mo trade partner is found and not against trading Kepler and going all in on Wallner and Larnach and seeing how they do. I just don't see them being worse than Kepler and Gallo and they are younger. This might be a hot take but I wouldn't mind testing the market on Polanco too with Julien hitting well and Royce Lewis expected back soon. If you also factor in Brooks Lee. I see Polanco being an odd man out. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If they weren't good enough last year and aren't good enough this year, how the heck do you expect basically the same group plus younger guys to be next year or the year after that? 

With that said, they should be doing some selling and some buying this year.

Isn't that what Baltimore has done?

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I'd be totally fine with trading Sonny Gray. Everyone moves up a spot in the rotation and the 5th spot goes to either Keuchel or Varland. I don't think there's much of a drop-off.

That's a pretty bold statement considering Keuchel was atrocious the last few years and pitched himself out of MLB. Did we forget how much Varland struggled earlier in the year as well? Don't look now, but his AAA numbers since being demoted are eerily similar to what he posted during his stint in MN. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That's a pretty bold statement considering Keuchel was atrocious the last few years and pitched himself out of MLB. Did we forget how much Varland struggled earlier in the year as well? Don't look now, but his AAA numbers since being demoted are eerily similar to what he posted during his stint in MN. 

I am not a big Sonny Gray fan and he's been regressing since April. If the Twins can get value, I'd roll the dice with Keuchel.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Isn't that what Baltimore has done?

Is it? seems like their young guys came in last year and were good (Baltimore was better than MN last year) and good their second year, not saying they are vastly different, but Miranda not good second year, Lewis hurt again, Larnach hurt and not good. If they go with the young and the guys continue to be not great, pushing it back even further correct?

[KirbyDome89]

49 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I am not a big Sonny Gray fan and he's been regressing since April. If the Twins can get value, I'd roll the dice with Keuchel.

But that roll of the dice isn't a small gamble. This isn't replacing Joey Gallo with Trevor Larnach. The step down from Gray to Keuchel is massive. 

[AceWrigley]

Here's a fun idea: if Duran gets injured, our bullpen is toast. Who closes then, Floro? Jax? Willi Castro? And it's not like we have great choices of hot performing minor league relievers. I'm not sure how we're going to deal with the trade deadline this year, but either way we are NOT in a position for success this year or in the direct future.

[Muppet]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

But that roll of the dice isn't a small gamble. This isn't replacing Joey Gallo with Trevor Larnach. The step down from Gray to Keuchel is massive. 

MIght be massive., but might not be either. I think typically if someone is dominating AAA, they aren't terrible when they come up to the majors. Besides, Gray will lose 100% of 1-0 games when the Twins fail to score any runs. They need hitting both now and next year. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

56 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Here's a fun idea: if Duran gets injured, our bullpen is toast. Who closes then, Floro? Jax? Willi Castro? And it's not like we have great choices of hot performing minor league relievers. I'm not sure how we're going to deal with the trade deadline this year, but either way we are NOT in a position for success this year or in the direct future.

Sadly, you're right. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is it? seems like their young guys came in last year and were good (Baltimore was better than MN last year) and good their second year, not saying they are vastly different, but Miranda not good second year, Lewis hurt again, Larnach hurt and not good. If they go with the young and the guys continue to be not great, pushing it back even further correct?

I am not sure where you are coming from.  Trading Gray or Maeda or Solano / MAT / Gallo has no impact on next year.  How could trading them push anything back?  Kepler has an option but let's not forget he has been mediocre since 2019.  Their top 5 offensive players are "young guys" and #6 is someone who was brought in on a one year deal so he won't be here next year.  The established guys that were supposed to carry us have underperformed and have been outperformed badly by the young guys.   The only established guys that have performed are role / bench players like Farmer and Solano.  Continuing to favor mediocre veterans is more likely to hold us back than making room for youth.  

 

Edouard Julien		156
Matt Wallner		155
Ryan Jeffers		135
Royce Lewis		131
Alex Kirilloff		124
Donovan Solano		117
Joey Gallo		103
Max Kepler		103
Kyle Farmer		101
Byron Buxton		99
Jorge Polanco		98
Willi Castro		98
Trevor Larnach		98
Carlos Correa		94
Michael A. Taylor		86
Kyle Garlick		78
Christian Vazquez		69
Jose Miranda		58
Nick Gordon		30

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I'd be totally fine with trading Sonny Gray. Everyone moves up a spot in the rotation and the 5th spot goes to either Keuchel or Varland. I don't think there's much of a drop-off.

You don’t think there’s much of a drop off between Gray and Keuchel or Varland?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Meanwhile, Cleveland is doing what Twins fans want the Twins to be doing: little bit of buying, little bit of selling 

Another interesting move: 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/guardians-trade-aaron-civale-rays-kyle-manzardo.html

[Muppet]

14 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

You don’t think there’s much of a drop off between Gray and Keuchel or Varland?

There could be a drop off, but then again, Gray seems to be losing it lately and Keuchel seems to be doing better than expected. Maybe Gray will get it together and Keuchel really is a pumpkin, but there is also a really good chance that the drop off isn't THAT large. The more important thing is Gray can't win games because he can't get run support. It is also my opinion that right now Gray isn't any better (or much better) than Madea, Ryan, Lopez, and Ober. Having a strong top 4 and a mediocre to good 5 isn't the worst thing. Losing 3 straight playoff games without generating more than a very small handful of runs is one of the worst things. 

[Irishman]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

Here's a fun idea: if Duran gets injured, our bullpen is toast. Who closes then, Floro? Jax? Willi Castro? And it's not like we have great choices of hot performing minor league relievers. I'm not sure how we're going to deal with the trade deadline this year, but either way we are NOT in a position for success this year or in the direct future.

DOOM!  

[Schmoeman5]

I honestly think the Twins are going to stand pat. Cleveland deals Civale. Bieber on IL. Chicago dealt a lot. I think the Twins FO thinks this team will win the division by default. The only move I see them making is DFA Gallo upon Lewis return. I'd be surprised if they bring in anyone for help this year. Clock us ticking. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 minutes ago, Muppet said:

There could be a drop off, but then again, Gray seems to be losing it lately and Keuchel seems to be doing better than expected. Maybe Gray will get it together and Keuchel really is a pumpkin, but there is also a really good chance that the drop off isn't THAT large. The more important thing is Gray can't win games because he can't get run support. It is also my opinion that right now Gray isn't any better (or much better) than Madea, Ryan, Lopez, and Ober. Having a strong top 4 and a mediocre to good 5 isn't the worst thing. Losing 3 straight playoff games without generating more than a very small handful of runs is one of the worst things. 

Since when does Sonny Gray swing a bat?

if you’re having trouble scoring runs, isn’t it more important to suppress opponent runs?

im not saying they shouldn’t trade Gray, I just don’t get this logic.

Sonny Gray is a top 10 starting pitcher in MLB. I’m not sure how he could get it more together or earn more run support. If anything, the Twins should go to 6 starters for a while to give them a breather

[Cris E]

So much of this comes down to what we're going to get from our injured guys, and that's just not known to us (and maybe the FO as well.)  Stewart is the sort of arm we're looking for, Lewis is the kind of bat we're looking for,  Theilbar is that lefty, Buxton is that CF, and so on.

My guesses: 

Theilbar is back but I expect him to get hurt at least one more time this season but be pretty effective when he's available.

Stewert will return and stay healthy but I'm not certain if he'll stay as effective. Part of my somehow feels he was just throwing his heart out and it took him that long to realize he'd run off the edge of the cliff before falling to the DL.

Lewis will come back and stay healthy.  I hope.  A lot rides on this one, TBH.

 

In the end they'll grab a RH cOF and a reliever based on what they expect from these guys so I look for a big Mets splash with Canha or Pham and that other reliever I can;t remember or posssibly a Cards package for Carlson in CF. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The White Sox are selling off 

The Guardians traded away Civale for a minor league bat.

Do the Twins sell too? Seems like no one wants to win this pitiful division

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Meanwhile, Cleveland is doing what Twins fans want the Twins to be doing: little bit of buying, little bit of selling 

Another interesting move: 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/guardians-trade-aaron-civale-rays-kyle-manzardo.html

How is trading 2.5 years of Civale for a prospect considered buying? 

[LewFordLives]

If I'm the Twins I'd just roll with what they have. If they can't win the division with the current roster they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

If they can get a bullpen piece for cheap, then fine, but they have so many question marks that there's no point in emptying the farm of whatever prospects they have left.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

How is trading 2.5 years of Civale for a prospect considered buying? 

That's what makes this fun. Civale is pitching really well, but the guy from Tampa Bay will flat out mash and could provide a spark for them like Julien has for us. Cleveland has those six years of team control of him, in exchange for 2.5 years of Civale. We hear it all the time, but in this case it is probably true that Civale's trade value will never be higher than it is right now. 

[SwainZag]

3 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

That's what makes this fun. Civale is pitching really well, but the guy from Tampa Bay will flat out mash and could provide a spark for them like Julien has for us. Cleveland has those six years of team control of him, in exchange for 2.5 years of Civale. We hear it all the time, but in this case it is probably true that Civale's trade value will never be higher than it is right now. 

Career year with less than ideal peripherals.   They sold at exactly the right time.   Tampa absolutely needed a starter as well. 

[howeda7]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

But that roll of the dice isn't a small gamble. This isn't replacing Joey Gallo with Trevor Larnach. The step down from Gray to Keuchel is massive. 

Potentially it is. If we continue to get the Gray from July, it might be a push. I'm not a fan of trading Gray as I don't think the haul will be that massive. But I hate to lose Kuechel for nothing and see him go 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA somewhere else too.