Did the Twins Lose the Jose Berrios Trade

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, Dantes929 said:

No.  This is just anecdotal evidence.   Joe Ryan was just a prospect.   Duran was just a prospect.   Glad we didn't trade Kiriloff who was just a prospect.   Graterol was just a prospect.   I feel like we have traded a lot of prospects away that did well in exchange for established major league contributors who then flopped once they put on a Twins uniform.   It cuts every which way.     Not all prospects turn out to be stars but every star was once a prospect.   Maybe if we kept Berrios we don't get Gray, and I would rather have Gray at this point.

There are way more prospects who flop than there are established MLB regulars who flop. That's why there are hundreds of minor leaguers but only 40 guys on each MLB roster. Yep, some will pan out, but most won't. That's just the nature of baseball. Even if Chase Petty turns out to be really good, that's still a trade I'd make to get Sonny Gray 100 times out of 100. Sonny Gray has more of a track record than Chase Petty does. High school arms are especially a crapshoot. 

[SwainZag]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know that I'd be excited about the deal, but I wouldn't be crazy upset about it. 15, 17, 18, 18 before his opt out isn't bad at all for a mid-rotation guy. But if he doesn't improve I assume he'll opt in, and then I'd be pretty cranky with 24, 24 in his age 33 and 34 seasons. I think the trade made sense, I think the extension made sense, and I think right now neither side is pointing at this trade as a masterclass in winning trades.

Berrios and Ober would be my guess, but that's only because I don't think Ryan's ERA is down at 2.7 after that Atlanta performance.

At this point you would have to assume he opts in, but that's a long ways down the road.  I also think the Twins would have given him that 4 year extension...just not the rest.  I think that's the thing about trades, we always want a clear winner and loser, but trades can often times just come out eh or even in the long run.  Obviously, we won't know for awhile.

It was Berrios and Ober, which I understand is a pretty SSS, Ober has injury problems in the past and not a fantastic comparison, but I have seen his name in a couple trade proposal threads, which would be quite crazy to me.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

At this point you would have to assume he opts in, but that's a long ways down the road.  I also think the Twins would have given him that 4 year extension...just not the rest.  I think that's the thing about trades, we always want a clear winner and loser, but trades can often times just come out eh or even in the long run.  Obviously, we won't know for awhile.

It was Berrios and Ober, which I understand is a pretty SSS, Ober has injury problems in the past and not a fantastic comparison, but I have seen his name in a couple trade proposal threads, which would be quite crazy to me.

I agree that the Twins would very likely have offered that 4 year deal, but if I were Berrios at the time I'd have said "no thanks, trade me" as well. Good for him for getting paid. It's looking like Toronto may be paying more for his MN performance than his Toronto performance, but nobody expected him to struggle like he did last year. I'd guess most trades are pretty "meh" kinds of things in terms of win/lose. Which is the goal for both teams. They're both looking to pay equal value just in different currency.

People suggested trading Ober? That's a bold move. I have real questions about his ability to hold up as a starter, and am fascinated to see how they handle his innings the 2nd half, but he's a legit arm with team control through his prime. Would be really weird to trade that. Even if he breaks down this year you still have him as a pen weapon into his 30s. He's there best development story as a FO. Hard to believe they'd trade the 1 guy they can point to as having developed start to finish into a legit MLB starter.

[Riverbrian]

Trades are equal value when made. You win trades when you are able to take the players you acquire and make them better. 

Martin and Richardson were a couple of highly ranked prospects when we acquired them. If we lose this trade it will be because we failed to make them better players. 

Jury is still out. 

[Brandon]

In the Berrios trade we saved 11.4 million or so and got 2 high end prospects.  If they become a useful utility player and reliever we still win the trade or atleast break even.  I don’t think we loose the trade by much.  Though we can debate all day long about whether the Twins should extended him.  I think 7 years is too long for a pitcher.  The market for starters continues to rise so the extension looks like it has the potential to be a bargain long term.  We will know more on that in about 3 or 4 years.  

[mikelink45]

Win or lose might not be the question. More appropriate is did we get what we hoped. I say no. 

[DJL44]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Kind of early to say. They won last year, lost this year. 

This year is mostly irrelevant to evaluating the trade. In 2022 Berrios was awful for the Blue Jays. Simply dumping Berrios '2022 $10.7M salary and 72 ERA+ production was a net win for the Twins. I don't know if the Twins would have tendered a contract to Berrios in 2023 after how poorly he pitched in 2022.

The winner of the Berrios trade was Jose Berrios. He found a team willing to pay him the big bucks on a contract extension. Since the trade he's produced 1.9 WAR for $26M. That has net negative value so anything they get from the prospects is a bonus.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Win or lose might not be the question. More appropriate is did we get what we hoped. I say no. 

I think this is the best way to evaluate the trade. Did they pick the right prospect return from all the available trade packages? We can't really know that unless we know the alternatives.

[Otaknam]

Berrio’s contract can’t be ignored in this debate. His mediocre production doesn’t yet justify 7 years and $131 million. His ceiling is as a number 3+ starter.  For every ten starts he has 2 that are very good or excellent, 2 fairly good, 3 mediocre, 1 or 2 below average and 1 or 2 where he gets pummeled. Not sure that justifies his contract. I like Pablo Lopez’ upside more than Berrios’.

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Wouldn't hurt  if the front office paid for both players to go to DRIVELINE and get their confidence  and listen to other voices of opinions  , because it just might be the  plan the twins have  just might of screwed up their heads alittle ....

The Twins organization has the same knowledge as the people at Driveline. There is no special sauce there.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Brandon said:

In the Berrios trade we saved 11.4 million or so and got 2 high end prospects.  If they become a useful utility player and reliever we still win the trade or atleast break even.  I don’t think we loose the trade by much.

When you have an asset like Berrios you don't win a trade by getting a utility player and a reliever. That is a bad trade and I don't care what Berrios does, even if he blows out his arm and never pitches again, doesn't take away the value of the asset at the time of the trade.

The Reds had a lesser asset at the time in Gray and got Petty it, that is still TBD how Petty turns out. They also had another lesser asset in Mahle and got Steer and others. Steer has already surpassed what Martin has done in the less time.

This BS talk about how much money the twins saved and utility player is only running cover for at this point a terrible, terrible trade. There is still plenty of time for it to turn around Matin and SWR aren't done.

[Dantes929]

20 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Can't agree with this. The Twins could have traded away Jay, Romero, Gonzo, Stewart, Gordon and a ton of others and got somebody back and didn't, so for every prospects that was traded and turned out well, there are dozens of more that didn't get traded ended up not amounting to anything.

The Twins also could have traded Liriano, Santana, Mauer, Ryan, Morneau, Cuddyer, Perkins, Polanco, Rosario, Radke and many others at some point while they were still prospects.  .  I mean, I like the idea of only trading prospects that didn't end up amounting  to anything in exchange for stars who then also played like stars for us.  Sounds simple.    

[TwinsDr2021]

27 minutes ago, Dantes929 said:

The Twins also could have traded Liriano, Santana, Mauer, Ryan, Morneau, Cuddyer, Perkins, Polanco, Rosario, Radke and many others at some point while they were still prospects.  .  I mean, I like the idea of only trading prospects that didn't end up amounting  to anything in exchange for stars who then also played like stars for us.  Sounds simple.    

Of all the Twins prospects since 2000, who really are the ones that would have hurt? Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Berrios, Gibson, and Buxton, some might have stung a bit Baker, Polanco, Arrez, Cuddy, Ramos . The jury is still out on AK, and Lewis
Thats it, maybe there are a couple more in the stung catergory.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Of all the Twins prospects since 2000, who really are the ones that would have hurt? Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Berrios, Gibson, and Buxton, some might have stung a bit Baker, Polanco, Arrez, Cuddy, Ramos . The jury is still out on AK, and Lewis
Thats it, maybe there are a couple more in the stung catergory.

 

 

 

There isn't one team in baseball that is built w/o prospects. Seriously.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

There isn't one team in baseball that is built w/o prospects. Seriously.

Of course, but that wasn't the point I was making at all.

[Dantes929]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Of all the Twins prospects since 2000, who really are the ones that would have hurt? Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Berrios, Gibson, and Buxton, some might have stung a bit Baker, Polanco, Arrez, Cuddy, Ramos . The jury is still out on AK, and Lewis
Thats it, maybe there are a couple more in the stung catergory.

 

 

 

I think there are a few more.  Dozier, Span, Ryan and Santana come to mind.  Well, you've got those.   You've got the Ramos for Capps kind of trades where we have given up an eventual all star for a failed veteran.   What have we gotten when we HAVE given up prospects for an established player who then played well?    I know I am missing some and maybe a lot of them but Graterol for Maeda is all that really comes to mind and the jury is out on that one.   We didn't get much for Hicks.   Got so so return on Gomez, Revere and Span..   I do remember wanting to trade prospect Sano when he was top 10 prospect but I wanted to trade him for one of the shortstops that were also top 10 prospects so that doesn't count.    Very obviously not all prospects work out.   My personal preference is building from within.   I used to follow the minor leagues very closely and got a lot more excited about a guy i had been following for a couple of years making it to the Bigs than I was getting a free agent.  Just me.

 

[Rosterman]

Got the impresion that Berrios wouldn't accept any offer from the Twins, although they might've matched his Toronto windfall. Who knows. But the Twins have now gone elsewhere, investing in Lopez and Paddack.

Is Martin Rule 5 eligible? I count this as his third season in the minors. One of the joys of signing college kids.

Woods Richardson is still a youngster. But, does he have enough skillset and spunk to be a starter? Like Henriquez, the age factor alone keeps them on the 40-man roster going into the next season, unless they are involved in a trade package.

The Big Thought that makes this a win-win for the Twins, no way was Berrios going to come bcak to the Twins. He would've walked. So the Twins managed to egt something.

 

[RaoulDuke]

Trades always come with risks.  Trading a guy getting his first big contract is always scary in both possible positives and negatives, that is a major asset.  

Martin/ SWR was a good return prospect capital wise but both had question marks, Berrios was a good young arm that had showed results going into his first big contract phase but had question marks.

Our return hasn't worked out so far and looks in real jeopardy to, but at the same time I wouldn't want to be paying Berrios the contract they are.  He is a 3 at best because he fluctuates between 2 and 4 stuff.  Glad to see he is doing better this year but that first year of the Jays contract had to real disappointing for all involved.

I am not sure anyone won this trade, could still change dramatically but both sides haven't received what they were going for yet.

 

[wabene]

16 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

When you have an asset like Berrios you don't win a trade by getting a utility player and a reliever. That is a bad trade and I don't care what Berrios does, even if he blows out his arm and never pitches again, doesn't take away the value of the asset at the time of the trade.

The Reds had a lesser asset at the time in Gray and got Petty it, that is still TBD how Petty turns out. They also had another lesser asset in Mahle and got Steer and others. Steer has already surpassed what Martin has done in the less time.

This BS talk about how much money the twins saved and utility player is only running cover for at this point a terrible, terrible trade. There is still plenty of time for it to turn around Matin and SWR aren't done.

Two years of Sonny Gray is a lesser asset than 1.5 years of Berrios?

Martin is a utility player?

SWR is a reliever?

I'll answer;

If Gray keeps this up this year, he is the clear winner. 

TBD

TBD

I would say Gray will offer much more value than Berrios.  Martin and SWR, at the time of each trade, had twice the value Petty did. 

[old nurse]

Winning and losing trades is all how you want to look at it. Would have keeping Berrios prevented the Twins from drafting Lee because they may have finished higher in the standings? Would have Berrios been enough to get them into the playoffs last year and thus miss out on the high pick they got.  5 years from now Lee and whoever they get this year  could be leading the parades downtown.

The other side of the s debate. Do they make the other trades for pitchers they did and those Reds prospects currently prospering would be doing the same as a Twin. Maybe they don’t trad Rogers and thus do not get Paga and Rooker would be an all star Twin.  

The events set in motion because of a trade can make it a little more difficult to assess a trade. At this point  the best guess would be no team won the trade. Neither team has won anything. 

[Twodogs]

On 7/5/2023 at 8:45 AM, weitz41 said:

This is a tough trade to say anyone won or lost.

Berrios was terrible last season, started this one even worse than righted the ship for a bit but has been inconsistent since. The prospects the Twins got haven't been all that impressive for the most part either. Maybe the money not spent gives the Twins the edge?

Looks like a loose/loose today. Maybe leaning the Blue Jays way because they are getting MLB innings from their end. Some good ones and some bad ones. It might take another season to be settled.

I'm not weighing in on who won whatever trade.  However I think credit needs to be given where credit is due.  I know most people are not necessarily fond of Berrios any longer, kind of like an ex girlfriend or something.  We all kind of knew he probably wasn't going to return to the Twins anyway so I can understand where the fan base can be a little disgruntled about him.  However, when considering his putrid first 3 games or so, he has been very consistent.  I mean his over all numbers are very similar to Joe Ryan's numbers and Berrios pitches in the AL East.  There is no worse place to have to pitch on a daily basis than the AL East.  Last year he definitely struggled.  Had a winning record but he pitched for a superior team last season that kept him in games that wouldn't have happened in Minnesota.  But this year, he has looked good, and again when you consider how poorly he started that means he's even done better than his current numbers show because he was coming from such poor numbers in the first place.  I hope SWR wins 20 games for the Twins next year.  I hope Martin becomes the next Luis Arraez.  So by no means am I saying the Twins lost this trade, I'm just saying give some credit where credit is due.  Berrios has looked sharp this season after that terrible start.

[Brandon]

On 7/6/2023 at 7:59 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

When you have an asset like Berrios you don't win a trade by getting a utility player and a reliever. That is a bad trade and I don't care what Berrios does, even if he blows out his arm and never pitches again, doesn't take away the value of the asset at the time of the trade.

The Reds had a lesser asset at the time in Gray and got Petty it, that is still TBD how Petty turns out. They also had another lesser asset in Mahle and got Steer and others. Steer has already surpassed what Martin has done in the less time.

This BS talk about how much money the twins saved and utility player is only running cover for at this point a terrible, terrible trade. There is still plenty of time for it to turn around Matin and SWR aren't done.

In evaluating the trade Berrios was not that great last year with an ERA over 5.00.  Saving 11 million which went used on payroll last year, and getting a reliever and a utility player for several years is even value in my book.  The extension Berrios signed goes independent of the trade since he wouldn’t sign with us as far as we knew.  But if we were getting several years of Berrios if we kept him then yes this is a bad trade.  

[TwinsDr2021]

On 7/7/2023 at 2:46 AM, wabene said:

Two years of Sonny Gray is a lesser asset than 1.5 years of Berrios?

Martin is a utility player?

SWR is a reliever?

I'll answer;

If Gray keeps this up this year, he is the clear winner. 

TBD

TBD

I would say Gray will offer much more value than Berrios.  Martin and SWR, at the time of each trade, had twice the value Petty did. 

You might have missed the whole thread, I didn't call Martin or SWR names, the other comment did and I wasn't comparing how well Berrios or Gray did or are doing. You can't have an asset like Berrios and claim it was a good trade because of Salary relief or you get utility guy or relief pitcher, You just can't and claim some sort of win. Like I said there is still time for SWR and somewhat Martin.

And Yes 100% Gray was less and asset than Berrios at the time of those trades, if you don't think that you are wrong, the Twins got two top 100 prospects and the Reds got none, so....

 

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

In evaluating the trade Berrios was not that great last year with an ERA over 5.00.  Saving 11 million which went used on payroll last year, and getting a reliever and a utility player for several years is even value in my book.  The extension Berrios signed goes independent of the trade since he wouldn’t sign with us as far as we knew.  But if we were getting several years of Berrios if we kept him then yes this is a bad trade.  

IMO, you are wrong, like I said Berrios was a huge asset and to claim payroll relief is ridiculous. I don't care how Berrios did last year in evaluating a trade from our side, the other side can.

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, you are wrong, like I said Berrios was a huge asset and to claim payroll relief is ridiculous. I don't care how Berrios did last year in evaluating a trade from our side, the other side can.

If you don’t care how Berrios did when evaluating a trade why would it matter if we get a reliever and utility player?  
 

That’s like the Reds saying I don’t care how Mahle does in 2023 we gave up a top of the rotation arm for prospects.

[dxpavelka]

They haven't won it yet and if you haven't won, you've lost.

 

[dxpavelka]

Trading Berrios precipitated the need for the Mahle trade, which precipitated the need for the Pablo Lopez trade. 

[Nine of twelve]

On 7/7/2023 at 11:05 AM, Twodogs said:

 Berrios pitches in the AL East. 

This has very little bearing. Each team plays only about 32% of its games against teams from its own division. 

[Linus]

At this point the most valuable aspect of the trade was not giving Berrios $130 million. Another option was to hang onto Berrios and take the comp pick after he walked. 

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, Linus said:

At this point the most valuable aspect of the trade was not giving Berrios $130 million. Another option was to hang onto Berrios and take the comp pick after he walked. 

Maybe.  Just like the prospects it will take time to tell.  We know these deals for SPs very rarely work out and I am glad they did not give him a 7 year deal but we should recognize only time will tell.