The Twins Have a Hitting Development Problem

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins hired Derek Falvey to lead their front office into the future, the hope was that he could bring along the pitching success Minnesota fans saw from Cleveland. That has started to take shape, but it may be coming at a detriment to the organization’s ability to develop hitters.

 

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Minnesota front office, they tend to draft hitters in the first round. Their first selection was Royce Lewis at the top of the 2017 draft, and only once have they taken an arm. Chase Petty was a high school arm drafted for upside and ultimately became the centerpiece in the Sonny Gray trade with the Cincinnati Reds.

As an organization, the blueprint has often looked like college hitters with loud contact. Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, and Aaron Sabato come from that mold. When Brooks Lee fell to them at eighth overall, there was an opportunity to grab a guy with elite contact skills. Of those mentioned, the most straightforward developmental arc comes from a guy who makes consistent contact.

Looking at Lee first, we have seen him jump into the top fourth of prospect lists less than a year after being drafted. He's already playing at Double-A, and while power isn't his game, he's been well-rounded defensively while racking up doubles in droves. He should see time at Triple-A this season and could soon be on the Twins radar.

From there, it gets bleak.

Rooker was limited skill-wise in what he could ultimately bring to the table. As a power hitter in college, his defense was non-existent. That continued to be the case at the professional level, and outside of a short stint before the injury, Minnesota never got him to the point of consistent production. He did start the year hot for Oakland but is now in his fourth organization and has cooled down since.

Similarly to Rooker, Sabato came to the Twins with a narrow profile. He had great exit velocities in college, but there was plenty of swing-and-miss with no real defensive home. Playing first base, he's been less than ideal with the glove and has yet to hit at all. Sabato can drive the ball during a batting practice session, but his professional numbers are ugly, and the Twins continue to promote him despite a real reason to do so.

Larnach was taken in the second draft for this regime and was a vital contributor to a good Oregon State team. Like Sabato and Rooker, Larnach made loud contact at the collegiate level, and the hope was that it could continue. He is 26 years old and has yet to play an entire Major League season. Injuries have derailed that process, but he has also struggled mightily with offspeed pitches. He has just 18 home runs across 177 career games, and while the consistent playing time hasn't been there, the power skills were expected to be substantially higher.

Breaking their mold, the Twins drafted Keoni Cavaco with the only pick in the teens that this regime has had. A high school third baseman, Cavaco put together a solid senior season that vaulted him into the first round. His previous track record didn't suggest him going that high, and he's struggled as a pro. Moving to third base and eventually first base this year, power has never come with his development, and his inability to make contact is a serious problem. Now 22 and at High-A, his development path has been nothing short of regression.

The Twins have had few success stories outside the first round. Minnesota native Matt Wallner has transformed his game to make more contact and is every bit the player they hoped Larnach, Sabato, or Rooker could have been. Still, he is 25 years old and being blocked at Triple-A in favor of Max Kepler.

Acquired in the Jose Berrios trade, Austin Martin's stock fell considerably with Minnesota before he wound up injured. 

Ultimately the problem is two-fold, with far too many misses at the top of drafts and an inconsistent development strategy. With the Twins wanting to draft hitters, they must do a much better job bringing them along. Outside of Royce Lewis, a long development arc interrupted with injury, the other success story thus far is probably Edouard Julien. Pitching development has been heavily invested across the organization, but capitalizing on more hitters is necessary. Looking at a guy like LaMonte Wade Jr. moving on and flourishing should sting. 

As the Twins have seen this season, even the best rotation is rendered somewhat useless, with a lineup incapable of providing any thump. Having some corner outfield prospects be a better option than Kepler or Joey Gallo would have been ideal, but the Twins' front office was not convinced those prospects were not superior.

If the Twins want to take the next step forward as an organization with a self-sustaining development model, churning out more positive results from the plate is a must.

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[USAFChief]

Concur, concur, concur.

Regardless your position on the "pitching pipeline," it's painful to look at position player development under Falvine. 

They've not brought a single diference maker to the lineup from the minors outside of 2023 Arraez. Not one.

Lewis still has a chance. Maybe Kirilloff, if you squint and cross your fingers. 

But to date? 

Nada. Zip. Zilch.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

100% on this. 100%. 

I think Lewis and Lee break this pattern, but I'm not convinced on any of the other guys. And they destroyed Martin. AK might, might, break the pattern also.

It is one reason I'd fire the FO right now.

[TwinsDr2021]

Wait what, no way. j/k

Jeffers would be considered a success I think, he debuted at age 23 and basically has been up since.

The 40 man is so barren of guys they have drafted or acquired as minor league players.

Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Celestino, Larnach and Wallner, That is it! 7 years and that is it,

When this FO arrived it was given and outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and infield of Polanco, Sano, and Arreaz and Garver at catcher and they turned those into a hot pile of .......

[Dman]

With OPS being king hard hit rate is supposed to solve all problems but when you can't hit the ball and strike out it doesn't matter how hard you swing it is still as easy out.  The less you put the ball in play the fewer chances you have to make a difference in a game.

It seems like the players that do best are well balanced at the plate.  Wade, Arraez, Jullien Steer, take their walks and hunt good pitches to hit.  It can be good to be a contact hitter but as Miranda and in the past Astudillo show us, if you don't make quality contact (weak contact) that doesn't work well either.  The Twins have invested pretty heavily in three outcome players but when the K rate is high and the quality of contact generally low those hard swings are negated.

Correa is horrible with two strikes.  Just throw something way outside and he will swing to protect the plate and be an automatic K.  I would pitch Buxton to the outside as well.  Poor plate discipline equals poor results.  I would focus on guys who can take walks as they are much safer bets to succeed when they get to MLB.  Having a good eye is very, very important IMO.

I don't know what the Twins can do to fix this as so many hitters are struggling.  Kepler and Gallo have helped sink this team as much as Correa and Buxton.  Three out of those four players are worse hitters than bench players Solano and Castro with Rookies Lewis and Jullien playing much better.  This team has problems.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Wait what, no way. j/k

Jeffers would be considered a success I think, he debuted at age 23 and basically has been up since.

The 40 man is so barren of guys they have drafted or acquired as minor league players.

Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Celestino, Larnach and Wallner, That is it! 7 years and that is it,

When this FO arrived it was given and outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and infield of Polanco, Sano, and Arreaz and Garver at catcher and they turned those into a hot pile of .......

I have no idea how you can blame this FO for what Buxton (hurt) Kepler (bad) Polanco (hurt), Sano (come on, no one has claimed him even) turned into. 

And, they turned Arraez into Lopez and two minor league players. It was a fair trade, even if it hasn't worked yet. So that leaves Rosario, who was DFAd by CLE at one point....

Also, we should maybe give them some credit for developing Arraez....And, you are right on Jeffers. 

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea how you can blame this FO for what Buxton (hurt) Kepler (bad) Polanco (hurt), Sano (come on, no one has claimed him even) turned into. 

And, they turned Arraez into Lopez and two minor league players. It was a fair trade, even if it hasn't worked yet. So that leaves Rosario, who was DFAd by CLE at one point....

Also, we should maybe give them some credit for developing Arraez....And, you are right on Jeffers. 

Kepler has gotten worse, Polanco has been an All Star, Sano has been an all star, Polanco has been an all star, Garver won a SS, Not really blaming them for what happened with them, but I know none have really gotten better and they haven't been able to replace them.

I will 100% give them credit for Arraez, as long as we also credit them for Gordon, Javier, Blankenorn, Diaz and all the other prospects that were generally ranked around where he was that failed or they missed had talent and went away.  It just tough to give them credit for the guys they inherited that did well but a pass on guys they inherited that didn't do well, right?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Kepler has gotten worse, Polanco has been an All Star, Sano has been an all star, Polanco has been an all star, Garver won a SS, Not really blaming them for what happened with them, but I know none have really gotten better and they haven't been able to replace them.

I will 100% give them credit for Arraez, as long as we also credit them for Gordon, Javier, Blankenorn, Diaz and all the other prospects that were generally ranked around where he was that failed or they missed had talent and went away.  It just tough to give them credit for the guys they inherited that did well but a pass on guys they inherited that didn't do well, right?

No one said that....no one.

[2wins87]

I don't really disagree but my current take on the front office is slightly different.

I don't think we can deny that they have brought the organization many years forward on player development.  The organization was already mired in a pretty bad development rut prior to them taking over.  They brought in technology and personnel that brought the organization up to speed with what had been going on in other organizations for years.

Getting the infrastructure in place is a big part of the development pipeline, but the pipeline also involves competent coaching and scouting.  As just a fan, it's impossible for me to really untangle those two, but clearly they have left a little to be desired.

They haven't been completely without success on the hitting development side.  I do still kind of believe that they have gotten big improvements from guys that the previous regime wouldn't have even had a clue of what to do with.  I think we have to include Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as well.  Steer may have benefited from adding a slightly different philosophy from another organization, but the Twins organization had already laid the foundation unlocking his power and elevating him from a 4th rounder to a top 100 prospect.

I do think hitting development is harder and much more dependent on the player's innate abilities.  Hitting is about reaction, and a lot of the ability to make contact on the barrel, and even the ability to make split-second swing decisions is more down to individual ability than any coaching, though getting the right mechanics for the right guy is still hugely important.

That makes me wonder how much blame to also put on the scouting and decision making.  Cavaco seems like a clear scouting mistake, and I think there are probably other more subtle ones.  But I'm also thinking beyond the amateur level.  They have had some good trades and some bad trades, some good signings and some bad signings, but I don't think we can rate their overall decision making on those as any better than mediocre.  I don't think that I really disagree with their philosophy of how they have tried to build the team, but whatever model and scouting is going into the final decisions, it doesn't seem like it's really led to particularly good results compared to the rest of the league.

I also been wondering about their advance scouting reports.  The number of times that they have made mediocre pitchers look great makes me really wonder if the pre-game info is just bad or poorly conveyed somehow.

I want to give the front office credit for bringing the organization forward, and it seems that they do now do some things, like getting the most of their pitchers, better than most other organizations.  But it still feels like overall the level of competence when it comes to signing, trading, and drafting is just pretty average.

[dxpavelka]

Moved on from Rosario with no adequate replacement ready.  And now we can't hit.  Wonder why?  Eddie would be tied for the Twins lead in Home Runs & RBI and two points of the pace in BA. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No one said that....no one.

didn't you? I am confused

Your quotes -

"I have no idea how you can blame this FO for....."

"they turned Arraez into Lopez and two minor league players. "

"Also, we should maybe give them some credit for developing Arraez."

They can't be blamed for a certain group, they get credit for trading an All Star and some credit for helping a player they inherited becoming an star. I understand you are done with this FO the same as me, I just don't get the rationale of who the front office gets to take credit for and who they don't.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dogsday]

I don't get all the negativity. The Twins are only 6-7 good players from being a really solid team.😜

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

didn't you? I am confused

Your quotes -

"I have no idea how you can blame this FO for....."

"they turned Arraez into Lopez and two minor league players. "

"Also, we should maybe give them some credit for developing Arraez."

They can't be blamed for a certain group, they get credit for trading an All Star and some credit for helping a player they inherited becoming an star. I understand you are done with this FO the same as me, I just don't get the rationale of who the front office gets to take credit for and who they don't.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You want me to list every player ever? That post was in response to a post listing who they developed, that didn't include Arraez. Context. It's about context. 

[RJA]

Well, I could say a lot about their philosophy on hitting, but let’s just consider what they haven’t done on the pitching development front. Ober has worked out. Gray was obtained in a trade. Lopez was obtained in a trade. Ryan was obtained in a trade. Maeda was obtained in a trade. Paddack was obtained in a trade.  Mahle was obtained in a trade. So, who did this expert Falvey draft and develop?  Ober and……. This myth that he knows how to develop pitching is just that, a myth. We lose CES, Steer, Petty, Povich, Hajjar, and others precisely because he has been unable to draft and develop pitching. And who is coming up at the AAA level?  Varland?  Maybe. Balazovic? Questionable at the very best. SWR?  Questionable/Maybe. Winder?  Questionable. 7 years with the Twins and he has produced one starting pitcher—Ober. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, RJA said:

Well, I could say a lot about their philosophy on hitting, but let’s just consider what they haven’t done on the pitching development front. Ober has worked out. Gray was obtained in a trade. Lopez was obtained in a trade. Ryan was obtained in a trade. Maeda was obtained in a trade. Paddack was obtained in a trade.  Mahle was obtained in a trade. So, who did this expert Falvey draft and develop?  Ober and……. This myth that he knows how to develop pitching is just that, a myth. We lose CES, Steer, Petty, Povich, Hajjar, and others precisely because he has been unable to draft and develop pitching. And who is coming up at the AAA level?  Varland?  Maybe. Balazovic? Questionable at the very best. SWR?  Questionable/Maybe. Winder?  Questionable. 7 years with the Twins and he has produced one starting pitcher—Ober. 

To be clear, Cleveland trades for guys, as does Tampa. I'm sorry, but they deserve a ton of credit for Ryan. No one in baseball thought he was this good . Also, are we just assuming Varland is bad now? 

[ashbury]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, are we just assuming Varland is bad now? 

He was a nice find in the 15th round but is profiling as a supplemental arm at best.  "Bad" is such an unpleasant word.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

He was a nice find in the 15th round but is profiling as a supplemental arm at best.  "Bad" is such an unpleasant word.

I don't think he's at best a number five starter....ymmv, of course. Unless you thinka number four is supplemental. 

How many pitchers, realistically, should a team develop to the majors in six years, two of which were the pandemic? I mean, no one drafted in the last two years should be expected to be in the majors....

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't think he's at best a number five starter....ymmv, of course. Unless you thinka number four is supplemental. 

How many pitchers, realistically, should a team develop to the majors in six years, two of which were the pandemic? I mean, no one drafted in the last two years should be expected to be in the majors....

On a team with post-season ambitions I see him as a spot starter, bullpen, AAA shuttle, type. Of course he could slot into Oakland's rotation and give them a steady 5-6 ERA at the moment.  Maybe at age 25 he hasn't quite peaked yet, I dunno.

[DocBauer]

Personally, I see the entire OP and discussion as very Jekyl and Hyde in approach.

Are we saying they can't develop hitting at the ML level? Are we saying they aren't doing so at the milb level? Are we saying they can't do either? Feels really hit and miss to me.

They helped Arraez. Julien, Miranda, Lewis, and Kirilloff actually look like potentially very good hitters, given Miranda has slid and needed a re-set. But I sure haven't given up on Miranda just yet.

Jeffers has shown improvement. Wallner is a question mark due to lack of opportunity, but has looked ready for more at the ML level and has destroyed milb pitching for a couple of years now. I'm uncertain about Larnach right now, but I'd also like to see him get a real run to prove what he might become. Even with his struggles, his numbers are mostly the same as veterans Gallo and Kepler. Do the Twins take the blame for the continued downfall of Gallo and Kepler? Opinion seems to suggest that, to a degree at least. And I don't think I buy that.

Do I think there needs to be a change in approach at the ML level, including probably the hitting coach(s)? Absolutely. And we can debate all day long about Rooker, Cavaco, and Sabato as bad draft selections that haven't turned out. Stinks, but it happens. But we have guys who actually have talent, show potential, and have improved, at the ML level and in the minors, including names already listed. So draft choices who don't work out are bad selections, or a failure to develop? It can't be both.

I object to Martin being ruined by the Twins. He went from college to a missed season, and then straight to AA. They tried to make adjustments for some more power...as all teams do...and it didn't work as intended. So he/they went back to more of what he used to do and he finished 2022 better and had a great AFL. He was brought to ST for a good look-see, but then got hurt. The injury setback is no more the Twins fault than it is Martin's. 

Again, I agree a general approach philosophy and coaching change is a must to happen going forward at the ML level. But even still, I have a hard time believing the coaching staff has done something to make Buxton and Correa, talented veteran star players, somehow worse. 

If we're talking "development" in regard to prospects, I see no evidence of poor coaching. If we're talking problems at the ML level, I agree. 

[RJA]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

To be clear, Cleveland trades for guys, as does Tampa. I'm sorry, but they deserve a ton of credit for Ryan. No one in baseball thought he was this good . Also, are we just assuming Varland is bad now? 

Everyone trades for gosh sakes, but are you suggesting Tampa and Cleveland haven’t developed more pitchers than the Twins?  That simply is not true. Take a look at who they have developed in the past 7 years compared to the Twins. As for Varland, he has not proven he belongs as yet, so he is still a maybe IMHO. I agree about Ryan being a great trade though his minor league numbers were very good. My point is, you simply can’t survive by trading for your nearly your whole rotation, you need to develop your own and Falvey has not done that despite his reputation as a pitching guru. 

[jkcarew]

I don’t know.

Twins developed Spencer Steer.

[Linus]

They have a player development problem. If you look realistically at what they have done it’s almost nothing in 7 years. This excludes trades. 

[Minny505]

On 6/30/2023 at 6:13 PM, RJA said:

My point is, you simply can’t survive by trading for your nearly your whole rotation, you need to develop your own and Falvey has not done that despite his reputation as a pitching guru. 

This is precisely what the Rays do. The Twins actually draft and develop more pitchers than the Rays...by a wide rate.

Take a look at their roster resource page.

Only 4 of their 22 pitchers on thethe Rays 40 man/IL were drafted or signed as international prospects. 

The Twins drafted 8 of their 25 pitchers on their 40 man/IL. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

On 7/1/2023 at 6:03 AM, Linus said:

They have a player development problem. If you look realistically at what they have done it’s almost nothing in 7 years. This excludes trades. 

Trading is part of development, if you trade guys in your farm for legit assets. Tampa and Cleveland do this often, two teams everyone here compares them to. 

[Nine of twelve]

There are too many words in the OP and the thread for me to read all of it.

2twins87 has the gist of the situation. Scouting and player development are two separate functions and both are instrumental in the success of the organization. It's possible that we have developed our hitters extremely well, but that they simply aren't talented enough to do better, which means the scouting system didn't succeed. It's also possible that our hitters are extremely talented but player development didn't succeed in maximizing their skills. I don't know enough about either matter to know where our organization stands.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

There are too many words in the OP and the thread for me to read all of it.

2twins87 has the gist of the situation. Scouting and player development are two separate functions and both are instrumental in the success of the organization. It's possible that we have developed our hitters extremely well, but that they simply aren't talented enough to do better, which means the scouting system didn't succeed. It's also possible that our hitters are extremely talented but player development didn't succeed in maximizing their skills. I don't know enough about either matter to know where our organization stands.

Sabato and Cavaco help answer that for sure....... And Rooker. But you're right, we don't know

[teufellove]

Development? Maybe. The overall decision making is suspect at the top. People wring their hands over the Arraez swap, which is ludicrous, given that there is value on both sides. The 2022 deadline swap that sent two bats that would bat in the middle of the current Twins lineup was either a gross miscalculation of the hitting talent in the Twins farm system, or, if the talent was properly assessed, horse trading Bill Smith-style. With the surplus of AAA 1.5 tool bats, the Twins chose two that would have saved the Twins from the debacle of batting, say, Kyle Farmer in the 4 hole.

But I do get the development angle. The AAA Louisville manager talked at length about how they have coached Christian Encarnacion-Strand to improve his selectivity. Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson fans 11 Twins like they're a crummy AAA lineup. I get the organizational philosophy, but they gave away what will, in all likelihood, be two above average major league bats for a pedestrian pitcher.

[Twins33]

On 6/30/2023 at 8:13 PM, RJA said:

Everyone trades for gosh sakes, but are you suggesting Tampa and Cleveland haven’t developed more pitchers than the Twins?  That simply is not true. Take a look at who they have developed in the past 7 years compared to the Twins. 

Pitchers drafted & signed with 1.5 bWAR or more (2017-now)

Guardians- Karinchak, Sandlin

Rays-McClanahan, Joe Ryan

Twins-Ober

People can choose to put Ryan with the Rays or the Twins, since the Rays drafted him and he spent the majority of the minors there, that’s where I put him. 
 

So the Rays and Guardians have each developed exactly 1 pitcher each more than the Twins in the same time frame….with the Rays hitting a huge HR with McClanahan. The Twins don’t seem that far behind to me (as much as we all still want them to be better)!

Pretty sure @Mike Sixel did some research in the off-season  and I think he found that 90% of all teams have been bad at drafting pitching since 2017 so I don’t know why people keep thinking that the Twins are so far behind everyone else when they aren’t (again, this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t want them to be better than they have been). 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Twins33 said:

Pitchers drafted & signed with 1.5 bWAR or more (2017-now)

Guardians- Karinchak, Sandlin

Rays-McClanahan, Joe Ryan

Twins-Ober

People can choose to put Ryan with the Rays or the Twins, since the Rays drafted him and he spent the majority of the minors there, that’s where I put him. 
 

So the Rays and Guardians have each developed exactly 1 pitcher each more than the Twins in the same time frame….with the Rays hitting a huge HR with McClanahan. The Twins don’t seem that far behind to me (as much as we all still want them to be better)!

Pretty sure @Mike Sixel did some research in the off-season  and I think he found that 90% of all teams have been bad at drafting pitching since 2017 so I don’t know why people keep thinking that the Twins are so far behind everyone else when they aren’t (again, this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t want them to be better than they have been). 

I think that was MLR, but I did some also, so maybe me? Either way, your point stands. Those other two teams aren't any better than the Twins at drafting and developing pitchers since this FO came on board.