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Since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Minnesota front office, they tend to draft hitters in the first round. Their first selection was Royce Lewis at the top of the 2017 draft, and only once have they taken an arm. Chase Petty was a high school arm drafted for upside and ultimately became the centerpiece in the Sonny Gray trade with the Cincinnati Reds.
As an organization, the blueprint has often looked like college hitters with loud contact. Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, and Aaron Sabato come from that mold. When Brooks Lee fell to them at eighth overall, there was an opportunity to grab a guy with elite contact skills. Of those mentioned, the most straightforward developmental arc comes from a guy who makes consistent contact.
Looking at Lee first, we have seen him jump into the top fourth of prospect lists less than a year after being drafted. He's already playing at Double-A, and while power isn't his game, he's been well-rounded defensively while racking up doubles in droves. He should see time at Triple-A this season and could soon be on the Twins radar.
From there, it gets bleak.
Rooker was limited skill-wise in what he could ultimately bring to the table. As a power hitter in college, his defense was non-existent. That continued to be the case at the professional level, and outside of a short stint before the injury, Minnesota never got him to the point of consistent production. He did start the year hot for Oakland but is now in his fourth organization and has cooled down since.
Similarly to Rooker, Sabato came to the Twins with a narrow profile. He had great exit velocities in college, but there was plenty of swing-and-miss with no real defensive home. Playing first base, he's been less than ideal with the glove and has yet to hit at all. Sabato can drive the ball during a batting practice session, but his professional numbers are ugly, and the Twins continue to promote him despite a real reason to do so.
Larnach was taken in the second draft for this regime and was a vital contributor to a good Oregon State team. Like Sabato and Rooker, Larnach made loud contact at the collegiate level, and the hope was that it could continue. He is 26 years old and has yet to play an entire Major League season. Injuries have derailed that process, but he has also struggled mightily with offspeed pitches. He has just 18 home runs across 177 career games, and while the consistent playing time hasn't been there, the power skills were expected to be substantially higher.
Breaking their mold, the Twins drafted Keoni Cavaco with the only pick in the teens that this regime has had. A high school third baseman, Cavaco put together a solid senior season that vaulted him into the first round. His previous track record didn't suggest him going that high, and he's struggled as a pro. Moving to third base and eventually first base this year, power has never come with his development, and his inability to make contact is a serious problem. Now 22 and at High-A, his development path has been nothing short of regression.
The Twins have had few success stories outside the first round. Minnesota native Matt Wallner has transformed his game to make more contact and is every bit the player they hoped Larnach, Sabato, or Rooker could have been. Still, he is 25 years old and being blocked at Triple-A in favor of Max Kepler.
Acquired in the Jose Berrios trade, Austin Martin's stock fell considerably with Minnesota before he wound up injured.
Ultimately the problem is two-fold, with far too many misses at the top of drafts and an inconsistent development strategy. With the Twins wanting to draft hitters, they must do a much better job bringing them along. Outside of Royce Lewis, a long development arc interrupted with injury, the other success story thus far is probably Edouard Julien. Pitching development has been heavily invested across the organization, but capitalizing on more hitters is necessary. Looking at a guy like LaMonte Wade Jr. moving on and flourishing should sting.
As the Twins have seen this season, even the best rotation is rendered somewhat useless, with a lineup incapable of providing any thump. Having some corner outfield prospects be a better option than Kepler or Joey Gallo would have been ideal, but the Twins' front office was not convinced those prospects were not superior.
If the Twins want to take the next step forward as an organization with a self-sustaining development model, churning out more positive results from the plate is a must.
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- DannySD, Oldgoat_MN, Clare and 3 others
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