Twins Gamble on Replacing Luis Arraez Is Proving Destructive

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You don't have a point. 

That's the point. 

Last year's record is irrelevant to whether or not Luis Arraez would help the 2023 team. 

 

 

Who pitches instead of Lopez? And does that make the team better or worse? If he's not good, they need the bullpen even more....

[MABB1959]

Besides all the numbers (win/loss, strikeouts, etc.), there is little to no one that leads this team by example or mentoring  some of the players coming up.  You can find fault with all of the below players but you cannot replace the players below

Rosario, Escobar, Arraez, Cruz, Astudillo and Berrios who played with such enthusiasm and love of the game.  

Great memories with no players to replace these

Sano:  It was awesome with RISP and have him come to the plate and knock one out

Buxton:  Watching him when he got on base when he could run from 1st to home in seconds was so amazing AND fun!

Buxton: Making the highlight plays in CF

Cruz:  Watching him mentoring others, especially Buxton.  Many players beelined right to Cruz after an at-bat for advice or feedback

IMO we have let players go that were FUN to watch,  When the fans are excited I think it rubs off and effects the game.  The Atlanta team is a true example of this and the domino effect it creates.  Seems we have 9 position players and not a one of them brings excitement for the fans.  Instead having the 1-5 players getting on base and getting RBI's all we can is hope they don't strikeout.  

We have a glimmer of hope with Lewis now,  

 

[USAFChief]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who pitches instead of Lopez? And does that make the team better or worse? If he's not good, they need the bullpen even more....

Again, not the point. 

But since you asked, Lopez is 3-5. Mid 4s ERA. Team is 8-8 in his starts.

Lopez hasn't been any kind of real asset to date, and finding a similar starter last winter that didn't require trading the league batting champ wouldn't have been tough. He has provided innings, at least by 2023 standards, I'll give him that. 

It's ok to have been in favor of the trade and still recognize that to date, it looks awful. And he better get better, because the team invested a lot of money, and he's not only getting the money but he's going to be in the rotation because of it for a long time.

Do you think anyone in Miami regrets this deal?

[David Maro]

Bases loaded how many times with no results. Correa,Buxton and who ever at bat with strike outs. Arraez would put the ball in play. The game is called baseball,this team thinks it is called homerun. Maybe its time for the SP to corner Correa and company. People keep talking about the playoffs,sorry not happening this year. Time to start over with new FO and manager.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who pitches instead of Lopez? 

Honestly Mike, it could have been extend Berrios and keep Arraez. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Again, not the point. 

But since you asked, Lopez is 3-5. Mid 4s ERA. Team is 8-8 in his starts.

Lopez hasn't been any kind of real asset to date, and finding a similar starter last winter that didn't require trading the league batting champ wouldn't have been tough. He has provided innings, at least by 2023 standards, I'll give him that. 

It's ok to have been in favor of the trade and still recognize that to date, it looks awful. And he better get better, because the team invested a lot of money, and he's not only getting the money but he's going to be in the rotation because of it for a long time.

Do you think anyone in Miami regrets this deal?

It's also ok to like the trade. Me? I'm unsure....but here was the calculus....

Arraez and ? OR

Lopez and Polanco and/or Gordon and/or Julien (depending on if Arraez is 2B or DH, as I assume AK is 1B). Plus two minor league players.

I get it.....it would be great to have Arraez given that every supposed veteran on this team is hurt or bad.....but they would likely not have any more wins with him here rather than Lopez. Which as my point about the record the last two years....they had him and bad pitching, and didn't win. It is a team game, and the FO bet on the second option above .... and might be wrong. But this idea that trading Arraez DOOMED the season, and the trade was awful, well, I think the trade was fair. YMMV of course.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Honestly Mike, it could have been extend Berrios and keep Arraez. 

Not last year, Because Berrios wasn't on the team. 

[Ryan Tamte]

6 hours ago, pierre75275 said:

If the Twins had Arraez instead of Pablo Lopez, who takes the starts that Lopez currently has gotten?

 

Varland? Don't get me wrong, I love the watching him pitch, but he was demoted for a reason.

Woods-richerdson? Given his troubles thus far in AAA, pry not.

BH? He has been okay, so maybe...

 

I'm not so sure the Twins are better off with Arreaz vs. Lopez. I love watching Arraez play baseball but the Twins offense is so bad at this point they are unwatchable and I am not convinced Arraez hitting two singles a game (as awesome and fun as it is to watch) really moves the needle that much.

He was 1st in the national league in wRC+, OBP, BA, and he is leading all twins players in hits, doubles, RBIs, runs, SLG, and OPS. So I have some confusion on this argument that he wouldn't generate ANY efficient offense and move the needle. 

 

Also, we could have made some free agency moves or put together a different trade package that would keep Arraez and get a solid rotation guy. We didn't value him. Twins fans have some cognitive dissonance when it comes to Luis Arraez and his value.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not last year, Because Berrios wasn't on the team. 

Berrios would have been extended on a new Twins contract, negating that need to trade for Lopez. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

Again, I can't prove a negative, so all I can do is speculate, which is pointless, but fun. 🤭

It all boils down, to me at least, age vs the combination of cost and team control.  LA is in his arbitration years, with the next 2 being his last before free agency.  And they will be expensive years, as he is already at the 6 mil point and that will rise.  He is also 26, with his nagging calling card supposedly troublesome knees.  Now Miami has never been a team to explode its payroll, so the combination of all of the above may have been a slow down if we had put together the right package of players either pretty much major league ready and/or pretty close to being ready.  Cheap, more years of team control, and more players total may have moved the needle.  Age alone would not have killed a deal with a team heavy in pitching and low on bats.  Again, more speculation on my part, but I think we chose to move LA because he had the most value at that moment, and we had no place to put both him and the infielders coming up through the system.  And with the financial commitments we were making to CC and BB we might have thought the expense that was coming down the pike with LA might not be doable to keep all 3.  I still believe that cost is why we let Urshella walk away when he was still a very skilled player, and the hope that Miranda was ready to take his place; Miranda, who was much cheaper and had team control.  Keeping in mind, also, that the trade for Lopez only became worth it when we extended him.  At a cost, to be sure.  So money, years of team control, the number of players and the positions they play, all may have played a role in a variety of trade scenarios between the two clubs.  I, personally, wish we had kept LA, but the FO stopped taking my calls some time back, so they never got the message.  Oh well, their loss.  😉

I don't disagree with really anything you said, but none of that has really has much to do with what the Marlins wanted, unless you are saying it was the Twins that pushed to trade LA and not that Miami was requiring him. IMO it was the Marlins that wanted him and the Twins saying the only way we do it is give us Salas. And if the Twins FO was pushing AL over unproven mid 20's prospect, well more reason to fire them.

Because if I ran the Marlins and the Twins said to me you can have any 3 of the following 4 Larnach, Kepler, Wallner or Julien for Lopez, I would laugh at the Twins and say I am not taking your garbage for a young solid starting pitcher. Why would I (being the Marlin FO) want to clog my 40 man with these guys, I mean I would have some interest in Julien, but he would have to be added to ERod or Lee, something not on the 40 right now and to be honest the Marlins are the ones that added a top 100 prospect to get Arreaz.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Berrios would have been extended on a new Twins contract, negating that need to trade for Lopez. 

But he wasn't. It wasn't an option. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't disagree with really anything you said, but none of that has really has much to do with what the Marlins wanted, unless you are saying it was the Twins that pushed to trade LA and not that Miami was requiring him. IMO it was the Marlins that wanted him and the Twins saying the only way we do it is give us Salas. And if the Twins FO was pushing AL over unproven mid 20's prospect, well more reason to fire them.

Because if I ran the Marlins and the Twins said to me you can have any 3 of the following 4 Larnach, Kepler, Wallner or Julien for Lopez, I would laugh at the Twins and say I am not taking your garbage for a young solid starting pitcher. Why would I (being the Marlin FO) want to clog my 40 man with these guys, I mean I would have some interest in Julien, but he would have to be added to ERod or Lee, something not on the 40 right now and to be honest the Marlins are the ones that added a top 100 prospect to get Arreaz.

garbage? Seriously? Come on.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Berrios would have been extended on a new Twins contract, negating that need to trade for Lopez. 

There were so many moves between Berrios and Arreaz that it doesn't make sense to even talk about that. Gray, Paddock, Mahle, and on and on.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Ryan Tamte said:

He was 1st in the national league in wRC+, OBP, BA, and he is leading all twins players in hits, doubles, RBIs, runs, SLG, and OPS. So I have some confusion on this argument that he wouldn't generate ANY efficient offense and move the needle. 

 

Also, we could have made some free agency moves or put together a different trade package that would keep Arraez and get a solid rotation guy. We didn't value him. Twins fans have some cognitive dissonance when it comes to Luis Arraez and his value.

Which other starting pitcher was traded that was good, or signed as a FA (how much more do we think the budget could be?)?

[Brandon]

I gotta disagree with this article.  1.  Solano has been a decent enough replacement for Arreaz.  A .370 OBP is pretty good.  He hits doubles.  And he has decent enough bat control.  
 

Pablo Lopez who we got in the trade is third in strikeouts in the AL and is a solid pitcher who signed an extension bringing some long term stability to the rotation.  
 

the offensive problems for this club stems from having very few 100+ OPS hitters in the starting lineup.  

Miranda got off to a horrendous start and was demoted.  

Kepler gets close the backtracks and gets close then backtracks.  

Correa and Buxton are slumping

Gordon slumped before getting hurt

Larnarch hasn’t quite taken off either

Valazquez hasn’t hit as well as advertised so far in his first season here.  

Taylor has been ok as a hitter in some aspects but his OBP is way too low.  
 

Now on the other side Lewis and Killeroff have made their way into the lineup and have produced.  
Wallner is trying to get here. 

Jeffers has hit in a back up role and should start getting more playing time.  
 

and we are left hoping that Buxton and Correa will break out and hit.  That will go a long way in helping posters hear more properly evaluate the Arreaz trade.  That deal has been more win/ win with Miami really winning at this point and so does our rotation.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

But he wasn't. It wasn't an option. 

I mean, it comes down to whether you have a vision for this team or not. Do you? Did you in 2021? 

[saviking]

A big part of Arraez success comes from incredible plate discipline. He knows that if you swing at balls out of the strike zone they will keep pitching you out of the strike zone. He also has supreme confidence in his contact skill with 2 strikes which gives him the confidence to take pitches.

So why should our batters take pitches even if their contact skills aren't as good? Because they already strike all the time so why not take any pitch that is on the edges and outside of your wheel house. Make the pitcher throw perfects strikes on the concerns. They will also benefit from taking pitches that look like they are going to catch the corner but are designed to get you to chase a ball off the plate.

I'm convinced that the team could raise their team average by 20 points by being disciplined. It's their fear of striking out that is causing them to strike out. 

 

[dxpavelka]

So MUCH traces back to trading away Berrios.  Tyler Mahle trade was made because we needed to plug the hole left when we traded Berrios.  Didn't work out which precipitated the Arraez trade.  Can probably factor the Sonny Gray trade in this mess too.  Have never replaced Rosario either.  I hate to keep harping on these two moves (actually, no I don't because SO much of the mess from the last two plus seasons traces back to them) but all the discussion in the world of the current state of affairs gets you nowhere if we ignore these two moves.

 

 

[Woof Bronzer]

57 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who pitches instead of Lopez? And does that make the team better or worse? If he's not good, they need the bullpen even more....

How good were the Marlins last year with Lopez?

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

How good were the Marlins last year with Lopez?

Not very.....my point stands. You don't build a team with one player.

The Twins made a calculation that one of Julien or Gordon (and a healthy Polanco) plus Lopez and two minor league players was better than Arraez and random guy.....It hasn't worked for a ton of reasons, but I think it is much more about CC and the OF and Buxton than Arraez.....

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lool, those are two different points.......I wouldn't deal Lopez for that either....but that doesn't make all four of those guys garbage, which is what you called them.

Ok, so we aren't talking about Contreras, Lamarre and Stevenson, but I wasn't the one (and neither were you) that said Kepler and Larnach or Wallner could have gotten Lopez.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

Ok, so we aren't talking about Contreras, Lamarre and Stevenson, but I wasn't the one (and neither were you) that said Kepler and Larnach or Wallner could have gotten Lopez.

Ya, that was ridiculous. 

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who pitches instead of Lopez? And does that make the team better or worse? If he's not good, they need the bullpen even more....

Knowing this team, it probably would have been Johnny Cueto (since there was reported interest in signing him). Or some other bad veteran on a one year deal, else it'd be Sanchez or Headrick starting games. 

[mikelink45]

4 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Knowing this team, it probably would have been Johnny Cueto (since there was reported interest in signing him). Or some other bad veteran on a one year deal, else it'd be Sanchez or Headrick starting games. 

Questions like this only make people speculate and move from the basic story - the question could be asked - who will bat for Arraez if he is not here.  We have the answer and it is not good.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

Questions like this only make people speculate and move from the basic story - the question could be asked - who will bat for Arraez if he is not here.  We have the answer and it is not good.

Julien isn't good? He's not Arraez.....

And, yes, this is the question. They traded Arraez for a pitcher.......Arraez and ? or Lopez and Julien...that was the calculation. It hasn't worked, but it largely hasn't because every OF sucks and CC sucks and Buxton isn't good.....

[hitterscount]

Up and down this lineup there are way too many under performing players. It starts with Correa, Buxton and Polanco constantly injured. I was and still am alright with the trade. The one factor I am unsure of is how valuable Arraez was in the clubhouse. He seems like a leader that had the ability to maintain a positive attitude which appears to be lacking on this team. Maybe Correa is that guy if he is hitting… but the body language in the Atlanta series tells me this team, if hasn’t already, is close to done. Also Rocco allowing the plate approach of HR or bust should have changed a month ago… we have the SP and BP to contend. It’s time to dump Kepler, get Jeffers more AB’s, limit Gallos AB’s and start trying to play some small ball early in games to manufacture runs and try and play with a lead. Taylor is not an everyday player… but it seems like he’s the only option at this point. I’m getting tired of talk on this trade… we are horrible offensively and mediocre on defense…. Time to shake things up because what they are doing isn’t working.

[Woof Bronzer]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think it is much more about CC and the OF and Buxton than Arraez.....

Agree, which is why I don't quite get why it's so hard to say the trade is looking poor right now and Arraez would undoubtedly be helping the 23 Twins, but the problems go much deeper than that.  

[pierre75275]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

Bases loaded how many times with no results. Correa,Buxton and who ever at bat with strike outs. Arraez would put the ball in play. The game is called baseball,this team thinks it is called homerun. Maybe its time for the SP to corner Correa and company. People keep talking about the playoffs,sorry not happening this year. Time to start over with new FO and manager.

That's true. However, with this team, if the bases were loaded, and we had Arraez, he would most likely be one of the guys on base!

[nicksaviking]

I'm not writing this trade off yet. Even if it turns into a 'win' for the Marlins, Lopez and his extension also provides a historical need for this team in rotation stability.

But even if the Twins had kept Arraez, they might have a couple more wins, but I can guarantee the level of frustration with this club would actually be even higher, than it is now. Arraez ONLY hits singles, and he'd be batting at the top of the order. This team continues to demonstrate a historically inept inability to drive runners in to score. Even if he was hitting in the high .300's, he doesn't get extra base hits or steal bases; the Twins would just be stranding more baserunners, which is what drives everyone crazy. The extra runs the team would score with Arraez would likely be the few RBI he gets hitting at the top of the order, which wouldn't be many considering Michael Taylor's .258 OBP.

[Halsey Hall]

Just as I thought, a terrible trade.  Front office needs to go.  Rocco needs to resign.