Let Us Continue to Marvel at the Greatness of Jhoan Duran

[Nick Nelson]

In a first half that's been filled with frustrating lapses and unmet expectations, one man has risen above, cementing his place among the game's truly elite in one of baseball's most pivotal individual roles.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

During the season, much of my writing here at Twins Daily is concentrated in the "Week in Review" columns, published each Sunday evening to provide a timely snapshot of the team's situation and outlook. (You can find the latest edition here!)

Each week, I make a point of highlighting standout players, both good and bad, to track leaders and laggards over the course of the season. One thing I noticed recently is that I have rarely found myself mentioning Jhoan Duran in the "Highlights" section, despite the fact that he's undeniably been one of the team's best performers and biggest bright spots.

I wondered, why is that? But the answer isn't too hard to figure out, in the context of the fan experience. 

First, Duran's greatness has become essentially routine. Not that throwing 104 MPH and blowing away the best hitters in the world should ever be viewed as such, but the big right-hander is so consistent, so reliable, and so casual in his otherworldly excellence that – as a fan – you almost have to will yourself not to take it for granted.

Twins fans, in general, can't be blamed for their conditioning to greatness at closer. Between Eddie Guardado, Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers, Minnesota closers have combined for 10 All-Star appearances in the past 20 years, and I'd argue that Nathan specifically is one of the 10 greatest to ever specialize in the closer role.

Yet, Duran is on a trajectory to surpass them all as a difference-maker. 

The other reason his greatness might get overlooked is because the team surrounding Duran has been so bland and mediocre in spite of him. When writing about the latest week's events, I'm usually too busy lamenting the offensive shortcomings that led to multiple frustrating losses as opposed to reflecting on Duran's role in salvaging the close wins. I know I'm not alone.

But that's not right. If not for Duran, this team would be in markedly worse shape, and this bullpen would be a liability rather than a strength. While relief pitchers are less impactful than starters and hitters in a broad context, Duran's usage pushes his impact to the max. 

He's facing the opposing team's best hitters, in high leverage, with games on the line, almost without exception. And he just keeps on getting it done, in dazzling fashion. 

On Sunday, Duran cruised through one of his more comfortable appearances of the year, closing out a three-run win with a perfect 10th against Detroit to pick up his 11th save. Through 31 innings, he's posted a 1.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while averaging 12.2 strikeouts per nine. Since the start of last year he ranks second among all MLB relievers in Win Probability Added, trailing only Cincinnati's Alexis Diaz.

 

The 25-year-old hasn't been perfect this year, with a pair of blown saves and two losses to his record, but they've always resulted from ultra-slim margins for error. (Thanks, offense!) Duran hasn't given up more than one run in an appearance all year. In fact, he's gone 55 consecutive appearances without being charged with multiple runs. Unreal.

Meanwhile, he's been a workhorse, throwing multiple innings in five of his 28 appearances this season while regularly handling pitch counts in the 20s or even 30s without requiring much downtime. His velocity and stuff are on point in pretty much every outing. I can't remember a time where he complained of soreness or even fatigue during the past two years.

It needs to be underscored how remarkable that is. Coming into last season, Duran was one of the most glaring injury risks in the organization. He'd missed nearly all of the 2021 season with an elbow strain, and was coming back as a max-effort reliever unleashing triple-digit heat. The upside was tantalizing but the risk level was substantial, and we all know how that tends to go in this organization. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: he's a miracle. 

 

Closer is one of those positions that we don't talk about very much unless the current occupant is struggling and costing the team wins. Baseball fans have been urged via sabermetrics to devalue the save statistic (rightfully so!) but there is no denying that high-caliber, high-leverage relief pitching is vital to winning games – especially in October.

That's why Twins fans should be talking more about Duran as we assess the team's viability as a contender. For all their flaws and weaknesses, having a relief weapon of this magnitude provides a massive single-game advantage. Being able to back him with a pair of supporting studs like Griffin Jax (who actually leads the bullpen in in fWAR) and Brock Stewart is a luxury few other teams can boast. 

One can reasonably argue that this relief corps will need help at the deadline, but the Twins are lucky to be set at the top with one of the best arms in baseball – not just that, but one of the most unique and awesome specimens to ever take the major-league mound. 

He deserves recognition as an All-Star. But more importantly, Duran deserves continual recognition in the eyes of fans like myself who might be inclined to take for granted the amazing things he's bringing to this team and to the game-viewing experience.

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[weitz41]

Definitely deserves a spot on the all-star team. This is one of the better relief cores I've seen. Add in Thielbar (if he ever gets healthy) and it gets even deeper.

[Doctor Wu]

During the off-season I was still sitting on the fence in regards to Duran. Keep him as reliever or let him try starting again? But at this point, it's clear the bullpen is his role, and man is he a monster in that role. Great to have him. Definitely deserving of an All-Star spot as weitz41 suggested. 

[terrydactyls]

If this article doesn't place a jinx on Duran, I don't know what will.

[Doctor Gast]

I'll second & third what was said. Duran should be a shoe in for the all-star team. We have been fortunate to have Duran so talented, smart & healthy

[jmlease1]

He's seriously dominant, but makes it look easy. I think the Twins are generally using him very well, and I appreciate the fact that he's willing to be a fireman, rather than just a closer. He's easily the Twins best reliever (which isn't a dis on the rest of the bullpen, since he's also easily one of the best in all of baseball) and I want him facing the other team's best hitters and locking them down, regardless of whether it's the 9th inning.

Relievers that can throw 100+mph gas can dominate. Reliever with a nasty curve can dominate. Relievers who have 3 pitches they can throw for strikes and miss bats can dominate. Duran has all three. Hitters can't touch any of his stuff!

[Fatbat]

Like all twins fans, I’ve waited patiently for Duran to establish himself as the best in the game.  Now that he has and has a large body of work to prove it, it is time to recognize that he is in fact, a unicorn. Just imagine if we are lucky enough to watch him for a whole decade of this amazing talent. 

[Craig Arko]

The clear choice to represent the Twins at the ASG.

[roger]

Great read, Nick.

As great as Duran and the other two are, the bullpen remains a bit shaky beyond this trio.  If the Twins want to make a run in the playoffs, they need one of the injured trio of Lopez, Thielbar and Alcala to get healthy and pitching like they can when at their best.  It would also be great if they found one more young gun from the minors to move up and become someone they can depend on.  Could be Winder, Balazovic, Moran or someone else?  Would love it to be Reggie Grace, but there is no way he can get to the Twins before next summer at the earliest.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If this article doesn't place a jinx on Duran, I don't know what will.

Please, please do not put Duran on the cover of Sports Illustrated. That is a guaranteed jinx. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Really a great article Nick. Duran is a uniquely talented pitcher. He is a joy to watch pitch for the Twins. I also enjoy the occasional views of the opposing batters shaking their heads in disbelief after a Duran pitch. 

[joefish]

Dilly! Dilly Duran!

[Brandon]

Duran doesn’t have the gaudy save totals which is a large part of the reason he doesn’t get as noticed as past closers.   Nick you left out Reardon and Aguilera in talking about past great closers for the Twins.  Since 1987 we have had a great closer.  I guess what I’m saying here is Ron Davis so scarred Management with his closing ability that we continue to enjoy a prioritized great closer on a consistent basis.  Let us recognize the goodness that came from Ron’s example of a career of why good relief pitching is important.

[HokieRif]

5 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Definitely deserves a spot on the all-star team. This is one of the better relief cores I've seen. Add in Thielbar (if he ever gets healthy) and it gets even deeper.

He deserves it.  What's surprising is that he's right around the total IP that most of the other saves leaders are at (low-30's) and he's got less than half the # of saves as the league leader (Romano @ 23).  With the way the all-star game is managed I think he may need to be our selected representative if we dont get anyone else voted in.  We sure as hell wont get a position player voted on to the roster.

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Duran doesn’t have the gaudy save totals which is a large part of the reason he doesn’t get as noticed as past closers.   Nick you left out Reardon and Aguilera in talking about past great closers for the Twins.  Since 1987 we have had a great closer.  I guess what I’m saying here is Ron Davis so scarred Management with his closing ability that we continue to enjoy a prioritized great closer on a consistent basis.  Let us recognize the goodness that came from Ron’s example of a career of why good relief pitching is important.

And before that, Mike Marshall and Ron Perranoski..

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, HokieRif said:

He deserves it.  What's surprising is that he's right around the total IP that most of the other saves leaders are at (low-30's) and he's got less than half the # of saves as the league leader (Romano @ 23).  With the way the all-star game is managed I think he may need to be our selected representative if we dont get anyone else voted in.  We sure as hell wont get a position player voted on to the roster.

I'd be pretty shocked at this point if Mr. Ryan isn't invited to Seattle for the game to join Duran.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

And before that, Mike Marshall and Ron Perranoski..

I would have added them but we had Ron Davis after them and he was awful.  In fact so bad the the Twins have always prioritized having a strong closer for the end of the game.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, SwainZag said:

I'd be pretty shocked at this point if Mr. Ryan isn't invited to Seattle for the game to join Duran.

I would say Ryan and Gray are the players most deserving of being Allstars from the Twins with Duran as a distant 3rd.

Elite SPs are far more valuable than elite RPs. As such, only 2-3 RPs typically get an Allstar nod. Look at the leaderboard for RPs, sorted however you want, and Duran doesn't stand out in any way. The two obvious guys are both in Oriole orange.

Duran's production does not make him more deserving than other RP options. but I would give him the nod as the 3rd RP on the team if I were MLB, because he is a freak show and the baseball world will be gushing about his raw talent when they see him throw.

[Shaitan]

lol at blaming the offense for blown saves.

Duran is great, no argument here.

I'd also like him in the ASG. Not because I care about the ASG, but I want him getting experience in high profile situations against the league's best in advance of the postseason.

[jimbo92107]

Contrary to some opinions, Duran's stuff is not untouchable. However, in order to make contact with one of his offerings, a batter is forced to guess which one is coming. That's why Duran should keep throwing plenty of his fastballs. You have to be ready to get the bat around on a 100 + heater, while at the same time be ready to hold back your wrists if he snaps off a curve, or swing at the dirt if he throws his spork. 

The results can look pretty awkward, as hitters flail at his high heat, reach for a curve a foot beyond the end of their bat, or scuff the dirt trying to get down to his fork. The only thing more cruel would be if Duran developed a 70 mph sweeper, which would make RH hitters jump out of the box. Or if he developed a 90mph knuckle ball. What would that even look like?

[RaoulDuke]

9 hours ago, Brandon said:

Duran doesn’t have the gaudy save totals which is a large part of the reason he doesn’t get as noticed as past closers.   Nick you left out Reardon and Aguilera in talking about past great closers for the Twins.  Since 1987 we have had a great closer.  I guess what I’m saying here is Ron Davis so scarred Management with his closing ability that we continue to enjoy a prioritized great closer on a consistent basis.  Let us recognize the goodness that came from Ron’s example of a career of why good relief pitching is important.

I think the Twins have just been good (and lucky) at putting struggling, middling, or injured starters into the pen, Nathan/ Perkins/ Rogers/ Duran all took off once switched to the pen and come with 5-6 years of service time. 

I am amazed they let Liam Hendriks get away before trying it again, seeing as how dominate he turned out.  Normally they seem to recognize guys that have the potential to really excel once the starters workload is off them and they can trim down the pitch mix and let it fly

It hasn't been all roses since 87, when they have targeted "proven" closers from outside the organization it has pretty routinely blown up in their face.  Capps/ Rodney/ Coloume/ Reed/ Lopez.  I see why they are always reluctant to sign vet relievers.

[RaoulDuke]

Duran is a straight up monster and a delight to watch. 

Even when he gives up hard contact most of the time it seems to be because he threw the splinker and the hitter was geared up for 103 so he was able to get around on 99-100.

If he ever learns a change up that isn't 100 he might not be hittable.