Week in Review: A Tale of Two Series

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins offense went from zero to 100 real quick, emerging from its worst run-scoring slump of the season and a Tampa no-show with a series win against the Blue Jays.

Naturally, Minnesota stopped short of a fully reaffirming sweep in Toronto, thanks to a late letdown full of familiar ingredients. 

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/5 through Sun, 6/11
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 33-33)
Run Differential Last Week: -5 (Overall: +40)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 61 | TB 7, MIN 0: Mighty Rays Exert Dominance Over Twins
Game 62 | TB 2, MIN 1: Lineup Wastes Pablo's Brilliant Outing
Game 63 | TB 4, MIN 2: Offense Sleepwalks to Fifth Straight Loss
Game 64 | MIN 3, TOR 2: Bats Muster Just Enough to End Skid
Game 65 | MIN 9, TOR 4: Correa's Grand Slam Keys Comeback
Game 66 | TOR 7, MIN 6: Twins Kill Momentum by Blowing Early Lead

NEWS & NOTES

Stop me if you've heard it before: Twins players simply cannot shake off their injuries. The past weekend saw both Caleb Thielbar (oblique) and Jorge Polanco (hamstring) return to the injured list with the very same issues that had previously landed them there. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton's first annual trip to the IL owes to a new ailment – a chest contusion suffered on an HBP.

Joining the roster in place of these three key players: Edouard Julien and Josh Winder, recalled from Triple-A, and Trevor Larnach who was activated from the IL. Joey Gallo is rehabbing in St. Paul, where he launched homers on Saturday and Sunday. He seems likely to the rejoin the Twins at Target Field this week.

HIGHLIGHTS

The eighth inning of Saturday night's game in Toronto felt, in many ways, like the massive breakthrough we've all been awaiting with growing impatience. Several toxic trends were suddenly reversed in a dramatic explosion of offense that secured the Twins their second consecutive victory in the wake of a five-game losing streak.

During said streak, Minnesota had scored six total runs, having eked out a 1-0 victory in the game prior. This offense was in absolute shambles before busting out for seven runs in a single frame, and the two hitters who authored this outburst were none other than the two biggest targets for (justified) criticism in the lineup.

Carlos Correa has clearly been the most conspicuous culprit in the team's shortcomings over the first half, with his poor overall production made worse by brutal clutch hitting statistics. All of Correa's first seven home runs were solo shots, and the Twins as a team had a .337 (!) OPS with the bases loaded as C4 stepped in against Adam Cimber on Saturday.

Three on and one out, down by two: the moment had all the makings of another predictable letdown.

Instead, Correa delivered arguably the biggest hit of the entire season: a game-breaking grand slam that flipped a 3-1 deficit into a 5-3 lead, a loss into a win. With one swing, Correa turned the tides on a tsunami of cascading offensive despair for which he was figurehead. It had to feel amazing.

Later in the same inning, Max Kepler followed with a clinching three-run blast that must've felt equally relieving. Having batted .118 with zero extra-base hits in his first 11 games back, openly drawing the ire of his manager with his lackadaisical play on the base paths, Kepler found himself in the crosshairs. 

At long last, he got a hold of one, clobbering a 95 MPH fastball over the fence in right.

Neither development should have been THAT surprising really, right? Baseball is a game of ebbs and flows, which tend to even out over time. At some point, these inexplicably extreme trends – the bases-loaded woes, Correa's lack of clutchness, Kepler's lack of anything – were going to turn. Maybe in a big way, if history is any guide. 

The Twins channeled their Saturday surge into the beginning of Sunday's game, where they put up four runs in the first inning against Kevin Gausman. Correa came up big again in this contest, with two doubles and a walk. The weekend served as a hopeful sign that finally some of these team-hindering laggards are finally ready to put the immense run of collective struggles behind them.

If so, the Twins have a strong base to get on a sustained run and pull away in the division. There are solid pieces mixed into this uneven offensive mix. Julien looks like a real spark-plug at the plate (albeit a massive liability in the field), and he figures to get an extended look in Polanco's absence. Michael A. Taylor is proving to be a dynamic asset with his speed and power. Royce Lewis shook out of a slump to notch hits in seven straight plate appearances over the weekend, raising his average from .182 to .317 in a span of two days. Alex Kirilloff continues to look like That Dude, slashing .293/.417/.455 on the season after another strong week.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff remains excellent, with the past week's notable highlights including a stellar performance from Pablo López against Tampa Bay (7 IP, 1 ER), more brilliance from Brock Stewart out of the bullpen (3 IP, 5 K, 0 BB, 1 H), and a run of six consecutive strikeouts against the Rays by an electric Bailey Ober.

LOWLIGHTS

The lineup's mini-breakout served to slightly quell mounting frustration around this offense, but a couple days of improvement were not going to erase memory of all the putrid performances we'd just witnessed from this offense.

Minnesota's lineup had already earned plenty of ire before sinking to its lowest point of the season: a five-game losing streak in which they scored six total runs, slashed .166/.229/.280, and struck out 52 times. 

As usual, the ineffectiveness in their latest mega-slump came together as a team effort, with plenty of supposed mainstays failing to carry weight:

• Christian Vázquez keeps sinking further and further into the depths of ineptitude. He's never been a great hitter, but at age 32 appears to have lost all ability at the plate. Last week he went 0-for-13, dropping his OPS to .561.
• Willi Castro cooled off in a big way, going 2-for-19 with a pair of singles on the week. It's always going to be a "live by the sword and die by it" kind of vibe with Castro, whose free-swinging approach will yield the occasional outburst among a sea of outs created. He's proven himself a high-caliber depth piece, but you don't want to find yourself leaning too hard on a guy like Castro, which makes it so alarming that Rocco Baldelli wrote Castro into the leadoff spot on Wednesday.
• The supposed lefty-mashing specialists that this front office assembled has been remarkably underwhelming. Kyle Farmer, who went 0-for-6 last week, has just one homer and eight singles in 35 plate appearances against LHP this year. Meh. Kyle Garlick, who's getting spoon-fed hand-picked spots against southpaws, is 3-for-21 against them on the season with 10 strikeouts and a walk. 

I think the Garlick experiment has just about run its course, and he's not the only veteran Twin whose future with the team is in peril.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Even with the home run on Saturday, there's no denying the fact that Kepler's production this season has been paltry, continuing a steady downward trend with no improvement resulting from the introduction of shift limitations or whatever adjustments he's attempted to make (if any).

Kepler's former strengths no longer carry much luster – for all his speed and athleticism, he doesn't steal bases (or even run them aggressively), and he refuses to play center field where he'd be most useful. Kepler batting .210 against right-handed pitchers. What is there to like here? 

It's getting harder and harder to stay patient when considering the broader factors at play – Kepler is in his last season of team control, and clearly outside of the team's long-term plans, while Matt Wallner is mashing in Triple-A to the tune of a .954 OPS. That's not even accounting for the impending return of Gallo, who will cut into the playing share time for either Trevor Larnach, Kirilloff, or Kepler.

Something's gotta give, and as we wade further into June, we're reaching a point where decisiveness is required. How much longer will the Twins kick the can down the road to their own detriment with a player whose goodwill has seemingly run dry both internally and externally?

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins are headed back to Target Field, and based on recent trends, you couldn't ask for much of a better slate to greet at home. These teams are down bad. The Brewers, while solid enough overall, have dropped four straight and just got swept at home by the lowly Athletics. The Tigers are in far more dire straights – they are 0-9 in the month of June, spiraling in the Central division after momentarily attempting to pose a modest threat.

It's a get-right schedule if I've ever seen one. But of course, this Twins team hasn't exactly had a penchant for capitalizing on prime opportunities.

TUESDAY, 6/13: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Corbin Burnes v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, 6/14: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Colin Rea v. RHP Bailey Ober
THURSDAY, 6/15: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Sonny Gray
FRIDAY, 6/16: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Joey Wentz v. RHP Joe Ryan
SATURDAY, 6/17: TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Louie Varland
SUNDAY, 6/18: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Reese Olson v. RHP Pablo Lopez

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[LastOnePicked]

I wanted the Twins to run away with the division. This week made it clear that's not going to happen. Then I wanted them to crash and burn and rebuild. This weekend also made it clear that's unlikely. So what do we have? A goofy loser's division midsummer bar-room brawl, one where the Twins punch themselves in the face at least as often as they get hit by their rivals. We'll see how it all plays out.

[tony&rodney]

The bulk of the picks for win totals for the year were between 82-88 victories. I thought 83-79 would win the AL Central. The Twins remain quite frustrating but also on course. They are also showing some signs of putting things together. If the team can slowly improve their hitting, the record improves. A rough series of missed chances/plays cost the Twins a sweep of the Blue Jays in front of packed houses in Toronto, so the team is working hard to compete.

It sure seems like the lineup has more life with all of Julien, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Lewis playing. Let them play. I'm not ready to see the return of these guys to AAA or to the bench. 

The next run of games should help. I'm concerned about a revival of the zero offense redux with a couple of players returning and getting put back in pen on the lineup card. I guess we shall see.

[Blyleven2011]

Prime opportunities ...

they've had alot of prime opportunities with the starting pitching keeping us in the games ...

Starters have been solid for two months plus  , the hitters have just lost their focus on situational hitting , can't make contact and strikeouts galore ,,, can't score with less than 2 outs , have a losing record  in 1 run games , etc. Etc .   ....

[mrtwinsfan]

Lots of blame to go around today,  but when has Pagan been used with a lead like today ? The man simply should never be used other than Mop up ,, Twins give away more games from the 7th inning on that i can remember, 

[LewFordLives]

Agree 100 percent on Kepler. When you have a lineup that struggles to score runs, it's hard to hide him. Decisions will have to be made.   

You can also add Pagan to "decision time". Although many of us would argue that decision should have been made at the end of last season.

[Nine of twelve]

The last two games in Toronto elicited from us a manifestation of human nature. Because we are Twins fans here, it's easy to focus on our team with the upshot being that we blame our players when things go poorly and we credit our players when things go well. But that's not fair or consistent. Compare and contrast the last two games in Toronto. If the result on Saturday was because our batters did well, then the result on Sunday was because their batters did well. If the result on Sunday was because of Pagan, then the result on Saturday was because of Cimber. Of course, neither view is completely accurate.

Over the course of 162 games many things happen. As tempting as it is to overemphasize isolated events and individual players I find it's not helpful to do that. Rather, I try to keep taking the long view and keep things in perspective. For example, I tell myself that going 2-4 on the road vs TB and Toronto is not horrible or unexpected. We are in first place in our division and as t&r pointed out we are performing as many or most people expected us to perform. Postseason, here we come!

[OvertheHill]

29 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

The last two games in Toronto elicited from us a manifestation of human nature. Because we are Twins fans here, it's easy to focus on our team with the upshot being that we blame our players when things go poorly and we credit our players when things go well. But that's not fair or consistent. Compare and contrast the last two games in Toronto. If the result on Saturday was because our batters did well, then the result on Sunday was because their batters did well. If the result on Sunday was because of Pagan, then the result on Saturday was because of Cimber. Of course, neither view is completely accurate.

Over the course of 162 games many things happen. As tempting as it is to overemphasize isolated events and individual players I find it's not helpful to do that. Rather, I try to keep taking the long view and keep things in perspective. For example, I tell myself that going 2-4 on the road vs TB and Toronto is not horrible or unexpected. We are in first place in our division and as t&r pointed out we are performing as many or most people expected us to perform. Postseason, here we come!

I'm on board with this take. Based on recent trends I was thinking that they'd go 1-5 on that trip; they go 2-4 so we fans should be ok if we were realistic about this being maybe an 85 win team. That said, I'm expecting them for go 4-2 this week. 5-1 would be a really good sign.

[Peter]

Very fortunate to still be in first place! Could’ve easily gone 0-6 as well 5-1. With 10 game homestand against Milwaukee/Detroit/Boston thinking we go7-3

cant afford to have losing homestand. Need to get back to winning series/pull aaay from division.

[Woof Bronzer]

I'd love someone in the media to ask Falvine (if Falvine can be found) why the injuries have not improved under the new trainer.  

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Agree 100 percent on Kepler. When you have a lineup that struggles to score runs, it's hard to hide him. Decisions will have to be made.   

You can also add Pagan to "decision time". Although many of us would argue that decision should have been made at the end of last season.

I'd argue Kepler's decision should've been made at the end of last season, but Pagan's should've been made in the middle of last season. I'd love to know what the internal conversations are like on those 2.

[ashbury]

Varland has pitched very much like a #5 in the rotation, his past two starts.  His seasonal OPS-against indicates the league finds him hittable, with the longball his bugaboo in particular.  I hope he puts up a splendid game against the weak-hitting Tigers.  Otherwise it may be that the pixie dust has worn off of this lightly-touted prospect and he needs to go to AAA for another application of the magic.  Maybe that will coincide with Maeda suddenly being ready to pitch like a rotation asset for the big club; otherwise, we're starting to look at choices like Aaron Sanchez or Brent Headrick, holding our breath each start.

Pagan rightly gets vitriol for blowing the lead, but Varland's short start led to Pagan being in the game at all.

Starting pitching has been the team's strong point this season, but the supply is not infinite.

[Fred]

14 hours ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Lots of blame to go around today,  but when has Pagan been used with a lead like today ? The man simply should never be used other than Mop up ,, Twins give away more games from the 7th inning on that i can remember, 

My Daughter said she read an article by Gleeman pointing out that Pagan's WAR has been negative FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS. I have to wonder if that gets included in his "analytics". I think he is literally last place (RP) in all of baseball. I am inclined to believe it, even though I haven't looked it up.

[mrtwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Fred said:

My Daughter said she read an article by Gleeman pointing out that Pagan's WAR has been negative FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS. I have to wonder if that gets included in his "analytics". I think he is literally last place (RP) in all of baseball. I am inclined to believe it, even though I haven't looked it up.

Good piece in the star-trib today , that answers alot of our concerns about Pagan,  Highly Recommend 

[Minny505]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

Varland has pitched very much like a #5 in the rotation, his past two starts.  His seasonal OPS-against indicates the league finds him hittable, with the longball his bugaboo in particular.  I hope he puts up a splendid game against the weak-hitting Tigers.  Otherwise it may be that the pixie dust has worn off of this lightly-touted prospect and he needs to go to AAA for another application of the magic.  Maybe that will coincide with Maeda suddenly being ready to pitch like a rotation asset for the big club; otherwise, we're starting to look at choices like Aaron Sanchez or Brent Headrick, holding our breath each start.

Pagan rightly gets vitriol for blowing the lead, but Varland's short start led to Pagan being in the game at all.

Starting pitching has been the team's strong point this season, but the supply is not infinite.

He may be an outlier who's HR/FB rate stays near 20%, but I doubt it.

Based on his minor league track record he is probably a high HR/FB rate pitcher, but that means 15%, not 22%. 

That change in batted-ball luck (the same talking-point many of us used to defend Jax in the last half of May) should have him around a 4.10-ish ERA pitcher. I'll take that from my 5 starter.