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  • Twins 3, Blue Jays 2: Offensive Malaise Continues, Dominant Pitching Wins Out in Extras


    Matt Braun

    A win is a win is a win is a win is a win...

    Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Sonny Gray
    : 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
    Home Run: Michael A. Taylor (9)
    Top 3 WPA: Royce Lewis (.448), Jhoan Duran (.325), Michael A. Taylor (.318)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    chart(16).png.cf2ce9f7b96ad3132f2b93c90857786c.png

    Fresh off a weak, un-intimidating effort against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins knew something had to change. A gradual increase of runs—none, to one, to two—may have been a little whimsical, but it was not effective, and the three-game sweep they endured only increased the pressure the often-criticized lineup has received.

    And so, it was only fitting that they would have to face a lefty to fix their woes—the exact type of pitcher they have not hit well since Nelson Cruz took his talents to South Beach (or thereabouts).

    The early frames played out as expected: the Twins made starter Yusei Kikuchi work, exhibiting the common styles of a pesky offense, but their work could only amount to nips and minor cuts, never inflicting serious damage as each rally died quietly. It was business as usual. 

    Sonny Gray was his normal, hyper-efficient self, though, easily breezing through the first handful of innings with only an occasional hit—and his own clumsiness on a balk—breaking his rhythm.  

    Things changed in an instant. The forces restraining Minnesota’s offensive ability ceased in the 5th, allowing Royce Lewis to bust out an infield hit to begin the inning. Christian Vázquez may have struck out staring at the wisps of a Kikuchi fastball, but Michael A. Taylor found his fortune. Kikuchi’s slider was perfect—low, precisely engineered to elicit a two-strike whiff—but Taylor sensed the pitch, predicted the strategy, and blasted it 403 feet out to left-center field, handing Minnesota a sudden 2-0 lead. 

    But things are never easy for those searching for luck. Gray immediately capitulated, walking a batter before allowing a soft pitching wedge served into left field. There was trouble; Bo Bichette was trouble. His grounder found Toronto’s trampoline infield, bounding just beyond Kyle Farmer’s glove to score the opening run for the Blue Jays. Gray increased his anxiety with a bases-loading walk, but a pair of easy outs ended the frame with the damage limited. 

    And so started the running of the bullpens. Nate Pearson earned his scoreless frame, forcing the focus to Jovani Moran. The lefty coaxed two quick outs before allowing a single to Santiago Espinal, inspiring Blue Jays manager John Schneider to call on George Springer for a little more of the clutch magic he has worked in his legendary MLB career. He came through. Brock Stewart’s first-pitch sweeper did not surprise him, and the ensuing double plated the tying run.

    The hiccup proved to be an outlier amongst the game’s relievers, as the teams exchanged slugs of strong pitching—outs never in question—while the game slithered into its critical frames. 

    The ninth inspired action, with the Blue Jays loading the bases on Jhoan Duran; he escaped unharmed anyways.

    And with some aid from the Manfred Man, the Twins could finally break free. Royce Lewis acquired his fourth hit of the game—a dinky infield hit in front of Matt Chapman—setting up Taylor with the crucial at-bat; he delivered with a sacrifice fly just deep enough to elicit an awkward-hopped throw from Whit Merrifield, making Ryan Jeffers safe at the plate. 

    Duran was back to being the man of the hour. Despite pitches oozing with stress, Rocco Baldelli trusted that his guy would win out, that his prize horse would find his gallop and lead the Twins to victory. There was a walk to Merrifield—better to leave the old nemesis on base anyways—but Duran stared down his enemies and sent them back to the dugout disappointed, ending the game with a harmless pop-up from Santiago Espinal and giving the Twins their first win in five games. 

    Notes:

    Friday was Royce Lewis' first four-hit game in his MLB career.

    Jhoan Duran's 38-pitch outing was his highest pitch count in a game since throwing 40 pitches on July 16th, 2022, against the White Sox.

    Sonny Gray has reached five innings in every start in 2023 except for his May 17th outing against the Dodgers. 

    Post-Game Interview:

     

     

    What’s Next?
    The Twins and Blue Jays will play the second match of their three-game series on Saturday; first pitch is at 2:07 PM, and Joe Ryan will face off against RHP Trevor Richards (likely a bullpen game.)

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Screenshot2023-06-09190844.png.5360b9775fba31bca3a67a3dd0127686.png

     

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    I’d go with gritty or strong pitching, not dominant…but either way, nice win.

    On a hunch, I looked up how many of Taylor’s starts had him batting 3rd, 4th, or 5th….in 713 starts…

    0 batting 3rd

    2 batting 4th

    31 batting 5th

    (Last two kinda surprising…but, KC Royals)

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    5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    It’s interesting that they are using Duran for more than one inning. Will this then limit his availability or are they purposely stretching him out a little? I hope his shoulder holds up, though, considering how hard he throws.

    I don't know that they are purposely stretching him out. Because of how they've played lately, this is only his third game since Memorial Day, and on one of those (Wednesday), he only threw two pitches. He was likely well rested. 

    From the radio, it sounded like if the Twins hadn't scored in the top of the 10th, he was unlikely to pitch the bottom.  

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    Unlike others, I had every opportunity to watch the game, but opted not to for a multitude of reasons, but namely my desire to maintain positive mental health.

    Great to see losing streak end.  Saying that a couple of questions anyone wishing to answer:

    1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

    2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

    What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

    One other question---that I'd appreciate anyone answering:

    What is the number of plate appearances that Polanco needs to reach for his 2024 vesting option of $10.5m to require Twins to bring him back?

    Twins are already locked into nearly $70 million next season for 5 players---Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, P. Lopez and Paddack.

    I've been a strong Polanco fam for years, but with his continued injuries and other/cheaper alternatives he'll be brought back.

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    12 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

    Unlike others, I had every opportunity to watch the game, but opted not to for a multitude of reasons, but namely my desire to maintain positive mental health.

    Great to see losing streak end.  Saying that a couple of questions anyone wishing to answer:

    1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

    2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

    What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

    One other question---that I'd appreciate anyone answering:

    What is the number of plate appearances that Polanco needs to reach for his 2024 vesting option of $10.5m to require Twins to bring him back?

    Twins are already locked into nearly $70 million next season for 5 players---Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, P. Lopez and Paddack.

    I've been a strong Polanco fam for years, but with his continued injuries and other/cheaper alternatives he'll be brought back.

    1. Gray himself kind of answers that in the video clip in the article. I wondered, too, since I was only following on gameday and asked that question in the game thread. He threw 31 pitches in that final inning, starting off with a walk. He said he got out of it, but after the 2-run homer to come out and walk the first batter takes away the momentum. And he said it was the right call. Guess it’s hard to argue it if Gray seemed to think it was okay. And you know he’d say it if he didn’t think so

    2. Your guess is as good as anyone’s. My question is why is he still even on the active roster … a question for the FO

     

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    13 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

    1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

    Listen to the video of Gray's post-game comments, provided in the above article.  He implies it was the right decision - "kinda made sense to shut it down there."  Gray's a battler and he's pretty much never going to ask to come out of any game, but this is how he phrases it.

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    6 minutes ago, wabene said:

    A win is a win. Don't you feel like things have gone the other way, so why go there? 

    While it seems like we’ve had some unlucky losses, the play where Jeffers scores, it was a very good thing the catcher couldn’t hold onto the ball because Jeffers would have been out by a good margin, imo. So, maybe that was a bit lucky for us, for a change. I’ll take it, though. As you said, a win is a win, and I’m glad.for it! 🙂

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    Lewis 4 for 4 without hitting the ball hard. Guess things do even out. Nice to win one in this fashion after being on the other end of this scenario many times. Duran not only has crazy stuff, the man is clutch. Back to 500, let's get on a roll here. 

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    3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    While it seems like we’ve had some unlucky losses, the play where Jeffers scores, it was a very good thing the catcher couldn’t hold onto the ball because Jeffers would have been out by a good margin, imo.

    5'8" 245lbs vs 6'4" 235, something's gotta give, lol. 

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    Quote

    Friday was Royce Lewis' first four-hit game in his MLB career....

     

    Lewis raised his BA by 82 points to .270 in one game. Schooled the lineup on hustle. Beating out the infield hits a good sign; the nasty tumble the other night seems to have left no impact on his health.

    Looking at the BP usage, seems Lopez, Winder, Moran and Pagan are left to be closers, as needed. Ryan needs to go long here this afternoon.

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    Nice win. Blue Jays did what the Twins usually do and fail to drive in runs with RISP. There were a lot more opportunities to lose that game than win it so a real nice game to win and hopefully will give everyone a boost. 

    Twins aren't getting a lot of breaks with hard hit balls. That DP in Tampa was a kick in the guts and Chapman made a great catch off a Farmer line drive which seemed destined to get into the corner. 

    Duran picked his team up just when we needed him to. Not his sharpest outing but did the job. 

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    7 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

    Lucky win tonight. If they get lucky and win tomorrow, that will be two wins in a row. 

    Reminds me of a Lee Trevino quote when told he was a lucky golfer, he responded "Funny, the more I practice the luckier I get".

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    Huge huge huge much needed win!!! Got nervous in bottom of 9th-but a win is a win!!! Let’s build on this and start another winning streak!

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    26 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

     

    hqdefault (3).jpg

     

    If we win today, it's called "two in a row." And if we win again tomorrow, it's called "a winning streak."

    I wish Lou Brown was managing the twins  ...

    It was just a movie but he could do better than the current  Manager ...

    Rejoice  that Rocco finally showed he was hungry for a win and left Duran  in for the tenth ...

     

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    8 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    Unlike others, I had every opportunity to watch the game, but opted not to for a multitude of reasons, but namely my desire to maintain positive mental health.

    Great to see losing streak end.  Saying that a couple of questions anyone wishing to answer:

    1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

    2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

    What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

    The Gray question has already been answered, but as has happened to him repeatedly in his recent starts, his command completely fell apart in the 5th.

    I think the question on Garlick/Lewis is not so much why is Garlick 3rd but why is Lewis 7th. As someone who is supposed to mash lefties, we've seen him starting in the 3 or 4 hole against them quite a bit over the last two years. He hasn't done what he's supposed to do this year, but 19 ABs isn't a sample you can draw any conclusions from.  You can certainly question whether they really needed one more RH bat over this stretch just for a couple of lefty starters. I have that question too.

    On Lewis, he's getting it done but he has been swinging at everything. Not sure if any of his hits last night were on strikes and only one was hit hard (on a pitch that was definitely not a strike). Now Castro basically does the same thing and he's recently been in the 1 and 2 spot, so it's not a full explanation. But Lewis definitely has some significant adjusting still to do if he's going to keep being productive going forward.

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    8 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

    What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

    It's not really that complicated: Garlick has crushed lefties his whole career. That's literally his reason for being in the majors. It makes perfect sense to slot him in there against a tough lefty and then when the bullpen starts rolling out you can slot one of your better lefties into the middle of the order as a pinch hitter. Lewis isn't going to come out, so this opens up opportunities to make moves later in the game. Garlick's numbers aren't good so far this season against lefties, but that's only like 20 ABs.

    It didn't end up working out last night (neither Garlick nor Larnach got a hit) but the logic and strategy is sound. 

    Would Wallner make sense to call up on this roster? Sure, but the problem is his lefty bat doesn't probably help you that much against Kikuchi and you're still probably not going to start him over Garlick (if he's still on the roster) against the lefty. 

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    ... call on George Springer for a little more of the clutch magic he has worked in his legendary MLB career.

    Springer is a good player, but to call his career "legendary" is laying it on a bit too thick! By that standard, Michael A. Taylor is legendary. A good player, and happy to have him, but not yet a legend. 

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    9 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    One other question---that I'd appreciate anyone answering:

    What is the number of plate appearances that Polanco needs to reach for his 2024 vesting option of $10.5m to require Twins to bring him back?

    Twins are already locked into nearly $70 million next season for 5 players---Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, P. Lopez and Paddack.

    I've been a strong Polanco fam for years, but with his continued injuries and other/cheaper alternatives he'll be brought back.

    No chance his option vests but it's still pretty likely the team picks it up.

    He's been their best position player after Buxton over the last few years and they have another option for 2025 too. If they can get his legs healthy (which does seem to be a pretty huge if at this point) it shouldn't be hard for him to be worth $10 million. There's no reason they couldn't still trade him after picking up the option if they have another plan at 2B.  

    His legs have taken a significant hit to his value but there is still value in his 2 years of control, so there's no way any front office would just throw away both options.

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    Man, Vazquez looks awful at the plate right now. Can't catch up to fastballs, toothless when he makes contact. It's getting a little concerning. I don't expect him to be a major offensive force or anything, but he's been brutal at the plate this season.

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    I was not too confident going into the 10th with Jeffers on second and realizing they had no bench move to make.  His base running ended up getting it done though.

    A faster base runner makes it look easy, but getting to 3rd on Lewis's dribbler was really key. Given his speed he had to get a good break on it from second, which he did. And he was just fast enough to make the catcher hurry fielding the hop on a pretty good throw on the sac fly.

    Who would have expected Jeffers to have so many pivotal moments on the base paths?

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    Garlick situation is laughable.  You are counting on Kiriloff for the future but replace him with a guy that should not be on the roster.  Garlick is an automatic  out.  His strike out rate is nearing 39%.  If

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