Buxton's Season So Far

[stringer bell]

The Twins 2023 season is 50 games in, close to a third of the schedule has been played. Byron Buxton has started at DH in 44 of the 50 games and appeared as a pinch hitter in one other game. In at least one respect, the plan is working. Buxton has appeared in 90% of the Twins games. In his career, he has played in more than 80% of Twins games just once (2017) and that is the only year where he appeared in more than 92 games (roughly 60% of the schedule).

In looking at Buxton's career, he became a dangerous hitter in 2019. Prior to that season, he had never had an OPS+ of more than 93 and since 2019, his lowest OPS+ is 115. This has been fueled by an increase in power, not so much getting on base. This year, Buxton is walking at the highest rate of his career (13%) which has increased his on-base percentage to .344 (second best only to his number in the COVID year). Buck has 10 homers, which would project above 30 for the season. 

In the past month, Buxton has begun to steal bases (6) and use his still-astonishing speed to take extra bases. He is graded out at three runs above average in BBRef and that would project to about ten runs above average for the full year. Last year, in 92 games, Byron was rated as one run above average while playing injured. 

I noticed that Buxton's average with runners in scoring position was low (.156 I believe), but that he had produced four homers and fifteen RBI. There is certainly room for improvement there and it is needed if the Twins want to win games in October. 

I have questioned the decision to limit Byron Buxton to the DH role, but if it allows him to play in more games than he ever has, it might be worth it. If he can remain a force at the plate and on the bases for as much as 150 games, questioning the decision gets much more difficult.. I would love to see Byron in the field and free-wheeling there and on the bases, but I doubt that will ever happen. His adjustment to being a full-time DH hasn't been seamless, but seems to be working, on balance. 

[GNess]

Yes,  it seems to be working at keeping Buxton in the lineup, which is a good thing. However, do we know if Buxton was in CF this season he would be missing games? We really can only speculate.

As much offense as he provides his offensive numbers aren't elite, while his defense is elite. Limiting him to full time DH also reduces options for the lineup, which likely has a negative impact.

There is a lot of gray area here, but the Twins record is but a few games above .500 - it is reasonable to speculate if Buxton were playing 2-3x a week in CF as well as playing DH the Twins would have a few more wins.

[Azviking101]

Every Twins player in recent history seems to fall apart in scoring situations and Buxton has always been among the worst for the Twins. 1.2 WAR through 31% of the season. It's honeslty not good enought for me. I think he's tied for 90th in WAR. 

However, he's been hurting lately and that's with him running a less than a football field length on average in a given game so it just appears like he'll never truly be healthy. I don't know what to do, but I know that watching him DH every game is not enjoyable for fans and not what any of us had in mind when he signed his extension. 

[Parfigliano]

19 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Every Twins player in recent history seems to fall apart in scoring situations and Buxton has always been among the worst for the Twins. 1.2 WAR through 31% of the season. It's honeslty not good enought for me. I think he's tied for 90th in WAR. 

However, he's been hurting lately and that's with him running a less than a football field length on average in a given game so it just appears like he'll never truly be healthy. I don't know what to do, but I know that watching him DH every game is not enjoyable for fans and not what any of us had in mind when he signed his extension. 

Pretty sure its what the FO had in mind with the extension.

[ashbury]

I was skeptical about DHing him.  His bat is good, but that's always been in the context of being a good center fielder.  To be a difference maker at DH requires a very high level of production.

... is what I thought.  Across the majors this year, DH has an OPS of .746, versus a league-wide .728 at the moment.  Past years have been similar.  Teams use the DH for a variety of purposes, not always to just have a masher in the lineup.

Buxton has an OPS of .832.  Assuming he keeps this up, we have an advantage over the opposition at the DH slot, more days than not.

I'd still rather see him in CF if he's able, of course - who wouldn't.  And installing him at DH has other roster ramifications.  But DHing him isn't the bad idea I thought it was.

[Doctor Wu]

Personally, I'm very disappointed in Buxton this year. Hey, I get the idea of having him DH and keeping his bat in the lineup, but other than a few timely home runs, how much has his batting contributed to wins this year? If he's healthy, I say put him back in center field ASAP and show us how great a player he can be. I'm just tired of all the strikeouts and leaving runners on base. I really had high hopes for Buxton this year, but I'm honestly having my doubts at this point. 

[FlyingFinn]

On 5/25/2023 at 10:14 AM, stringer bell said:

I have questioned the decision to limit Byron Buxton to the DH role, but if it allows him to play in more games than he ever has, it might be worth it.

I believe he would hit better if he was playing CF. Also, with both Taylor and Buxton both in the OF late in games, the Twins would be even better in the OF late in games. It opens up the DH for a hitter and that in turn allows for better defense at another position, say when Polanco returns, someone like Julien could DH. Buxton needs to lead this team more (along with Correa) and it's hard to do as a DH, especially when he has a bad night like last night. Make some rule that he can't touch the fence or dive if we really have to be that careful. If he can run and steal like he has been, he can play CF. 

[MI2]

I like the availability, but we didn’t give him the extension to be an above average DH. I’d want to see some reps in CF, even if it’s light at the beginning. I think this becomes much more of a question once Larnach/Kep/Polo are all back along with Royce. Would love to see something like:

C: Vazquez 
1B/OF: Kirilloff 
2B: Polanco 
3B: Lewis
SS: Correa 
OF/1B: Gallo 
CF: Buxton 
OF: Larnach/Kepler 

Bench: Farmer, Jeffers, Solano, MAT

Optioned: Garlick, Wallner, Julien, Castro

Use the DH spot to give everyone more rest days, especially those coming off of IL stints like Polo, Kep, Correa etc. 

[Benchwarmerjim]

The plan to slow roll Buxton back out to the field is working out because the Twins went out and got a pretty good CF replacement in Michael A Taylor. I think if they started season rolling out Nick Gordon on an everyday basis, Buxton would already have 20 games in CF under his belt.

[twins_89]

I think the Twins need to start experimenting with Buxton in CF. Have him play 1 game a week in the outfield and see how things go. If that is successful, gradually up his CF time until they find a CF/DH balance that works. I'm not sure that anybody is expecting Byron to be a full time CF, but being a full time DH doesn't seem like a great idea either.

[tony&rodney]

Hopefully, we do see Buxton in centerfield at some point. Taylor is a fine defender but does not provide enough offense unless the rest of the lineup is terrorizing opposing pitchers. 

I'm liking Castro more all the time and Farmer has clearly shown that he is a valuable player. Taylor will need to be kept all season for centerfield insurance, providing that Byron does play in the field.

The return of guys like Polanco, Kepler, Larnach, and Lewis (possibly) could reshape the roster. I expect the front office to choose the people they started the year with, but I'm ready for Julien to DH or play in the field versus right handed pitchers. Larnach has been our best option in left field. While I expect Kepler to be back in right field, Wallner is making his case as an impactful fellow. The lineup in the field largely depends though on Byron Buxton. 

Ideal: Julien-DH, Buxton-CF, Kirilloff-1B, Polanco-2B, Correa-SS, Larnach-LF, Lewis-3B, Wallner/Kepler-RF (undecided), Vasquez-C.

Sure hope Buck can have the health to play centerfield by mid June, but I'm thinking the Twins are too afraid of an injury still.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 5/25/2023 at 10:27 AM, Azviking101 said:

Every Twins player in recent history seems to fall apart in scoring situations and Buxton has always been among the worst for the Twins.

Good lord this couldn't be less true.

Over the past three seasons, Buxton has a WPA of almost 5. He's literally the most clutch player you could ask for in the moment.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 5/25/2023 at 2:39 PM, ashbury said:

I was skeptical about DHing him.  His bat is good, but that's always been in the context of being a good center fielder.  To be a difference maker at DH requires a very high level of production.

... is what I thought.  Across the majors this year, DH has an OPS of .746, versus a league-wide .728 at the moment.  Past years have been similar.  Teams use the DH for a variety of purposes, not always to just have a masher in the lineup.

Buxton has an OPS of .832.  Assuming he keeps this up, we have an advantage over the opposition at the DH slot, more days than not.

I'd still rather see him in CF if he's able, of course - who wouldn't.  And installing him at DH has other roster ramifications.  But DHing him isn't the bad idea I thought it was.

Not to mention that he's been absolutely tearing it up on the basepaths. His value as a hitter is enormous, well beyond that of OPS.

Still, it'd be really nice to see him in center on occasion.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I'm holding on to hope that the Twins intend to have him be the usual center fielder by the end of the year. The fact that he has started stealing frequently this month could point to several good signs: his health is improved or steady, the Twins value the impact of his speed more than they fear injury, and the Twins have a plan that involves restoring more of his game as he remains healthy.

[Rosterman]

Ultimately, Buxton's payroll worth to the Twins is stronger if he actually plays centerfield, which opens up the DH spot for my guys to cycle thru if need be. SImilar to the Twins want for Mauer to be a catcher rather than a third baseman.

Buxton does eek out as better than Sano during his own 50+ game season a couple of years ago, as Sano would strikout out much more. But in many other ways, he is not much better than the departed guy in everything from runs and rbi to doubles and even hits in the same amount of at bats. A few more walks gives him a better OBP, but not by much.

[wabene]

Buxton is on pace for 629 plate appearances which would trigger 5 $500,000 escalators improving his salary this year to $17.5m. If he hits that it's a bargain. Gotta think a DH role won't result in MVP votes eliminating his other escalators, which are the really big ones. I do find it strange that such high stakes are dependant on the whims of voters. 

[Nine of twelve]

I don't think anyone disagrees that Buxton's value in any given game is higher when he is playing CF than when he is DH. But what the team needs for the regular season is to get his highest cumulative value, and if DHing him does that I'm OK with it. But when the postseason rolls around he needs to be ready to play CF.

[Squirrel]

4 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't think anyone disagrees that Buxton's value in any given game is higher when he is playing CF than when he is DH. But what the team needs for the regular season is to get his highest cumulative value, and if DHing him does that I'm OK with it. But when the postseason rolls around he needs to be ready to play CF.

I’d like him out there 1-2 games a week though. It’s nearly June. It’s time, unless he can’t. 

[Dennesey55347]

Crazy how Buxton is propped up as "elite" or even great every season but 10 years from now, only maybe a handful of his faithful, local fans will reminisce in his career accomplishments.

[specialiststeve]

Not sure why the new hitting coach has not worked with Buxton on his front side flying. He is pulling off the ball on almost every swing. 

He needs to start working on hitting everything to center/right center to stay on the ball longer. Advanced scouting on other teams I am sure are seeing this and he is NOT adjusting....

[MABB1959]

16 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Good lord this couldn't be less true.

Over the past three seasons, Buxton has a WPA of almost 5. He's literally the most clutch player you could ask for in the moment.

He mustered up 1 hit in the Toronto series.   I love him but IMO he is wasting the DH role and is paid to play CF, run, steal and hit.    You can throw out all the stats you want but he is pretty bad so far this season.  Buxton and Correa are going to cost the Twins season.  

[MABB1959]

17 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Good lord this couldn't be less true.

Over the past three seasons, Buxton has a WPA of almost 5. He's literally the most clutch player you could ask for in the moment.

This was a clutch series and he got one hit, How is that clutch.  

[Shobae]

I mean I think a lot of people are taking Buxtons health for granted here, the fact that he, through May 30th, played in 49 games is nothing short of incredible. It's entirely possible if he was playing CF regularly he'd be a month into an IL stint as was common for him. There is also no evidence that I can see suggesting he would even be able to play 40 games in CF up until this point. To my knowledge the best predictor we have of future injury is past injury and well don't think anyone on this team has more of those than Buxton.
In terms of his performance it's certainly left a lot to be desired, while a .334 woba isn't necessarily bad it's certainly not great from a 15 million dollar DH even when we factor in that he comfortably the best base runner on the team. What's slightly concerning about this start is that his average EV, barrel% and hard hit% are all way down compared to the prior three season. That suggests that he's certainly lost a lot of power so far this season which if continued would be a very bad sign for the next 5.5 years of his contract. But I would honestly wait for a larger sample before panicking about that.
Also I agree with everyone else here that they should start working in some CF games for Buxton, especially if the long term plan is to have him play in the playoffs. I think at this point Buxton is done as a full time CF, the question is what the split between DH and CF starts will look like for the rest of his career.

[SwainZag]

On 5/28/2023 at 3:49 PM, MABB1959 said:

This was a clutch series and he got one hit, How is that clutch.  

Because you are comparing 1 series to 3 years worth of data.  Was Buck clutch in the TOR series? No.  Has he been over the last 3 years worth of data? Yes.

[jimbo92107]

To me Buxton looks like he's nursing an injury, even with just DH'ing. He's just a fragile guy trying to do super things. 

[ashbury]

On 5/25/2023 at 12:39 PM, ashbury said:

I was skeptical about DHing him.  His bat is good, but that's always been in the context of being a good center fielder.  To be a difference maker at DH requires a very high level of production.

... is what I thought.  Across the majors this year, DH has an OPS of .746, versus a league-wide .728 at the moment.  Past years have been similar.  Teams use the DH for a variety of purposes, not always to just have a masher in the lineup.

Buxton has an OPS of .832.  Assuming he keeps this up, we have an advantage over the opposition at the DH slot, more days than not.

This post did not age well. 😀

A week later his OPS is already down to .771 (early season numbers still fluctuate), and he's not among the league leaders for DH.  He's an acceptable regular at DH if the rest of the lineup is really strong at bat, but we know that's not the case.  And we all feel he is capable of so much more.  I still hope we are in a "rehab" situation for his knee or hip or whatever holds him back, and we still get the Real Byron Buxton this season, preferably sooner than later.

[jkcarew]

He’s a moderately above average DH…no better, no worse in that role than we should have expected.. 6 SB and the occasional mad dash to home, doesn’t make him more than that. It’s not a terribly valuable equation. If he does that all year, is that an overall win for the club? I’m not sure it is.

Maybe the best way to look at it is…”and then he’ll play CF in the playoffs”. Sure would be nice to have the option to play a young/hot left-handed bat at DH (against righties) and plunk Buxton in center in the playoffs. But even in the ALC central, you have to make it to the playoffs first.

[Doctor Wu]

Maybe I'm only seeing it from a very narrow perspective, but whenever I see Buxton batting, he's either striking out or hitting a home run. Okay, he's got a handful of doubles and actually he's getting more walks this year too, but if you're talking about "clutch" I don't think he's the guy you want to depend on. As jkcarew said: "Moderately average" DH is pretty much an apt description. But with Buxton's talent I expect much much better performance. 

[Azviking101]

On 5/28/2023 at 12:09 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Good lord this couldn't be less true.

Over the past three seasons, Buxton has a WPA of almost 5. He's literally the most clutch player you could ask for in the moment.

You did not read. I said scoring situations, with runner in scoring position. The last two years he’s had a batting average of .145 and .132 in those situations. His WPA is high from solo shots, home runs with runners on first and the occasional 500 foot home run with runners in scoring position in huge spots. 
Clutch players don’t hit that far below the Mendoza line with RISP. The eye test backs up his failures in those positions and he loses all patience and discipline. 
As most twins players do, he’s trying to swing too hard instead of putting the damn ball in play. 
we all remember his amazing walkoffs and game tying home runs but consistently when the twins need to add runs, he’s failing far too often. 

[D.C Twins]

Buxton's season has been sad for me, because his play used to spark joy. It is depressing to be reminded that we have an elite 5 tool player going unused when he provides average to above average ABs 4-5 times a game. 

Clogging up the DH position causing poor hitting substitutes in the outfield is the biggest problem.