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The Twins 2023 season is 50 games in, close to a third of the schedule has been played. Byron Buxton has started at DH in 44 of the 50 games and appeared as a pinch hitter in one other game. In at least one respect, the plan is working. Buxton has appeared in 90% of the Twins games. In his career, he has played in more than 80% of Twins games just once (2017) and that is the only year where he appeared in more than 92 games (roughly 60% of the schedule). In looking at Buxton's career, he became a dangerous hitter in 2019. Prior to that season, he had never had an OPS+ of more than 93 and since 2019, his lowest OPS+ is 115. This has been fueled by an increase in power, not so much getting on base. This year, Buxton is walking at the highest rate of his career (13%) which has increased his on-base percentage to .344 (second best only to his number in the COVID year). Buck has 10 homers, which would project above 30 for the season. In the past month, Buxton has begun to steal bases (6) and use his still-astonishing speed to take extra bases. He is graded out at three runs above average in BBRef and that would project to about ten runs above average for the full year. Last year, in 92 games, Byron was rated as one run above average while playing injured. I noticed that Buxton's average with runners in scoring position was low (.156 I believe), but that he had produced four homers and fifteen RBI. There is certainly room for improvement there and it is needed if the Twins want to win games in October. I have questioned the decision to limit Byron Buxton to the DH role, but if it allows him to play in more games than he ever has, it might be worth it. If he can remain a force at the plate and on the bases for as much as 150 games, questioning the decision gets much more difficult.. I would love to see Byron in the field and free-wheeling there and on the bases, but I doubt that will ever happen. His adjustment to being a full-time DH hasn't been seamless, but seems to be working, on balance.

The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well.

As I occasionally do, I checked MLB statistics today. I wanted to see how the team stacked up to the rest of Major League Baseball. Most teams have played about 10 games, so we have an idea of trends, although some things are out of whack. Baltimore has good pitching? Cleveland has the top team BA in the American League? Nah, those things won't last. What about the Twins? Well, with a 4-6 record and and -6 run differential, I figured the Twins would profile poorly on offense and middle of the road on the run prevention side, Here's what I found. Pitching. Far from a disaster, but not league average. The Twins are 20th (of 30) in team ERA and 15th in runs per game. That difference is explained by only allowing three unearned runs despite 8 errors in 10 games. They haven't played any extra inning games and unearned runs really happen there due to the "ghost runner". Other stats--23rd in walks per nine innings, 21st in strikeouts per nine innings, 15th in Opponents Batting Average and 20th in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). The starting staff has been better than expected, but the bullpen ERA is over 4.50. This looks like pretty good luck to this point--they're allowing more balls than average to be put in play, walking more than league average and still at the median for allowing base runners and runs. Hitting. The only stat where the Twins are significantly better than league average is home runs. They are sixth in the league in homers per plate appearance. Other key stats--third in strikeouts per plate appearance, 25th in team OPS, 22nd in runs per game. Hitters are more predictable and projectable that pitchers. The Twins have been projected to be a good offensive team, probably enough to make up for their pitching deficiencies and hang around .500, so far that isn't the case. To summarize, it is early. The offense has been a major disappointment, but will improve. Pitching has been better than expected, but there are some number that predict a downturn. After playing three straight 90-win teams (from 2021), the Twins will face a less daunting schedule in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully, the record and stats improve over that time.