Week in Review: Unstoppable Starters

[Nick Nelson]

Minnesota's rotation has been the class of the major leagues early on. Their stellar starters led the team to a series victory against the defending champs over the weekend, making a statement in front of home fans after last year's sad 0-6 showing versus the dreaded Astros. 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/3 through Sun, 4/9
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 6-3)
Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +13)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (0.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 4 | MIN 11, MIA 1: Twins Bash Four Homers in Blowout Win
Game 5 | MIA 1, MIN 0: Silent Offense Has No Answer for Alcantara
Game 6 | MIA 5, MIN 2: Lineup Muffled by Marlins, Twins Drop Series
Game 7 | MIN 3, HOU 2: Gray Dominates, Twins Rally for Walk-Off
Game 8 | MIN 9, HOU 6: Pair of Three-Run Homers Bury Astros
Game 9 | HOU 5, MIN 1: Houston Handles Finale to Avoid Sweep

NEWS & NOTES

It didn't take long for Minnesota's abundance of lefty-hitting corner outfield depth to come into play. Max Kepler tweaked his knee running through first on Monday, and when it hadn't improved enough after several days, he was placed on the injured list. Kepler is replaced by prospect Matt Wallner, who made his Twins 2023 debut on Sunday.

Joey Gallo has also been sidelined, dealing with some seemingly mild side soreness, but he hasn't yet joined Kepler on the IL. He hopes to avoid that outcome. We'll see.

Josh Winder, slowed by a shoulder issue (again) this spring, opened up a rehab stint at Fort Myers with two scoreless innings on Friday. One day earlier, Jorge Polanco embarked on his own rehab assignment with the Class-A Mighty Mussels. More on that shortly.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins pitching staff continues to dazzle day after day. The rotation has been better than anyone could have imagined, pacing the entire league in a variety of stat categories while delivering consistently strong outings regardless of the opponent.

All is going pretty much exactly how the front office drew it up: quality starting pitchers from front to back, with no real weak point to disrupt the competitive flow and give opponents a break. 

Or, as Sonny Gray put it following his brilliant 13-strikeout performance in the home opener: "We’re not constantly waiting to get back to the top of the rotation for a good outing or a good start. We’ve got five guys that, say I go out there and s*** the bed, the next guy picks me up."

Fortunately, bed accidents haven't been much of a concern thus far, with each member of the rotation looking tremendous without exception. Joe Ryan followed Gray on Saturday with an outing far more impressive than his final line (4 ER in 6 IP) suggests; Ryan had one bad sequence in the third, culminating in a Yordan Alvarez grand slam, but otherwise shut Houston down with 10 strikeouts and one walk. 

Pablo López showed ace form in seven masterful innings Wednesday against the Marlins, continuing to stymy hitters with an upgraded arsenal that now includes a whiff-inducing sweeper. Tyler Mahle looked great in both of his starts, posting a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 innings while exhibiting no signs of shoulder trouble. What an absurd asset to have as your "fourth starter."

Even Kenta Maeda – the biggest question mark of the group coming off a long absence and rough spring – sparkled in his season debut, holding the Marlins to one run over five innings with nine strikeouts on Tuesday. 

He's the only rotation member we've seen just once. Monday's match-up against the White Sox will be telling after Maeda came out of his first start due to fatigue.

Already painting a stark contrast to last year, every starting pitcher has delivered at least five innings in every start, never letting a game get out of range on their watch. The success of the rotation has, in turn, reduced the burden on the bullpen, which has largely gotten the job done through nine games. 

Jhoan Durán has been doing his thing, posting three scoreless appearances in key spots. Saturday's save, which saw the righty slam the door on three pitches, exemplified the way his excellence has almost become casual.

Minnesota's offense was much more of a mixed bag, but one big standout deserves mention: Trevor Larnach is blossoming before our eyes. He has played a vital role, slotting into the No. 2, 3, and 4 spots in the lineup while Polanco is sidelined, and Larnach is paying off his manager's vote of confidence.

He went 6-for-23 last week with a homer, triple, and four walks, showing impressive patience at the plate and his signature all-fields pop. Larnach has reached base at least once in every game. 

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins lineup went from slugging to sluggish in Miami, scoring 11 runs on four homers Monday and then managing two total runs in the final two games to drop the series. In Friday's home opener, the bats were mostly silenced before rallying for a pair of runs in the 10th to win. They awakened with a nine-run outburst on Saturday, but then were were held to two hits on Sunday.

As Yogi would say, it's déjà vu all over again.

Cold bats in the early weeks aren't unusual, and the great Twins pitching has largely offset the run-scoring struggles. Still, fans can't be blamed for feeling apprehensive about what they're seeing, having watched the 2022 lineup short-circuit so frequently. (They were held to two or fewer runs in one-third of their games.)

Several key hitters are struggling, but for what it's worth, there aren't a ton of underlying signs here that cause alarm. Nick Gordon is batting .091 despite striking out zero times in 24 plate appearances. That won't hold up. José Miranda doesn't have an extra-base hit yet. That won't hold up. Carlos Correa has a .492 OPS. You KNOW that won't hold up.

Things are going to give. 

In addition to waiting out those inevitabilities, there are some actions at the team's disposal to give the offense a boost. One of them would be pulling Byron Buxton back from his strict DH relegation: the byproduct of his starting there exclusively is that Michael A. Taylor is occupying a daily spot in the batting order. Taylor has looked horrible at the plate, and while he's not going to hit .194 all year, he will likely continue to be an offensive liability – especially against righties.

Buxton's presence in the lineup is crucial, and he's been in it for eight of the first nine games. So, I can see why the Twins would take a "why fix it" mindset. But the lineup does need some fixing, and getting Buxton into center to free up the DH spot here and there would be a simple incremental improvement. I'm just not sure the Twins are willing to go there at this point.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Another clear path to improving the Twins lineup is getting Polanco back near the top of it. Larnach's emergence has been a huge help, but the absence of Polanco's switch-hitting stick along with Luis Arraez's departure is definitely being felt at the front of the order. (Arraez, naturally, is leading the NL with a .471 batting average.)

Although Polanco's return isn't imminent, for the first time since early spring training, it feels like we have a solid timeline taking shape.

Polanco kicked off an official rehab stint at Fort Myers, playing five innings on Thursday and seven on Saturday for the Mighty Mussels. Because the 29-year-old didn't get much of a spring training experience due to lingering knee soreness, he's going to need a full ramp-up, and it'd be no surprise if the Twins used nearly their full 20-day rehab window (or even extended it) to acclimate him.

That said, Polanco probably has the ability to accelerate his own timeline. If he's feeling and looking good on the field in the coming week, playing full games and producing, he'll be in line for a move to Triple-A and the majors soon after.

As for Alex Kirilloff, whose bat could be a pivotal difference-maker for the middle of the lineup? Doesn't sound like he's particularly close.

LOOKING AHEAD

The gauntlet is underway. Minnesota is off to a good start, having notched a series win against an Astros team that completely demolished them in every meeting last year, but their challenge is only beginning.

In a full-slate week ahead with seven games scheduled, the Twins will face arguably their two most-hated rivals, the White Sox and Yankees. Plenty of top-tier pitching is on deck, including three top-10 Cy Young finishers from 2022. 

The early-season proving ground continues. If the Twins come out of this stretch with a winning record we should all be feeling ecstatic.

MONDAY, 4/10: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Cease v. RHP Kenta Maeda
TUESDAY, 4/11: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, 4/12: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Sonny Gray
THURSDAY, 4/13: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Joe Ryan vs TBD
FRIDAY, 4/14: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Tyler Mahle v. LHP Nestor Cortes
SATURDAY, 4/15: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Domingo German
SUNDAY, 4/16: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Gerrit Cole

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[D.C Twins]

 "But the lineup does need some fixing, and getting Buxton into center to free up the DH spot here and there would be a simple incremental improvement."

This!  Taylor is NOT a starting CF but his IS a great 4th outfielder. 

As I've stated numerous times... The return of a healthy Kirilloff should be considered a luxury this season and not part of any plan or strategy because chronic wrist injuries are horrible for doing one of the hardest things in sports. I wish him the absolute best, but remain very concerned for the long run. 

I L-O-V-E the starting rotation performance and moxie! (and Pagan is getting people out! ...  I just hope that does not signal the end of days :)

[Melissa]

Good to have these weekly summaries again!

The starting pitching has been great, and the bullpen pretty sturdy.

I don’t know that I would explain or discount the poor hitting due to the cold weather. This Friday, sure, but not the rest of the week.

Polanco’s relativity swift return seems important, especially with Gordon so lost at the plate. All too often, Nick seems to swing and make an out on the first pitch he sees. And Jorge would serve well as the lead off hitter.

Keeping Larnach healthy also key!

[jimbo92107]

When your least dominant starter is Tyler Mahle, your rotation is pretty good. When your offense is...getting by without your star 2B and your top hitting prospect (Kiriloff)... Get well soon, Polo! 

[mikelink45]

I do like this round ups.  Today you triggered another image in my mind.  Two years ago we all pictured Lewis and Kiriloff in the lineup and leading the way for the Twins.  Now we have seen both of them with more IL time than playing time. Royce has 40 MLB ABs total, Kiriloff has 359 in three years.  Hard not to imagine what might have been, but baseball can be a cruel game.  Now Jorge has under 400 ABs in three years and over 400 three years - and they alternate.  As he gets older can we expect him to return and give us full years again?

[mikelink45]

I have to add this note from the Journal of Henry David Thoreau as I look out at my front field with two feet of snow still covering it.

"Some fields are dried sufficiently for the games of ball with which this season is commonly ushered in. I associate this day, when I can remember it, with games of baseball played over behind the hills of Sleepy Hollow, where the snow was just melted and dried up, also with the uncertainty I always experienced whether the shops would be shut, whether we should have an ordinary dinner, and extraordinary one, or none at all, and whether there would be more than one service at the meeting-house. This last uncertainty old folks share with me. This is a windy day, drying up the fields; the first we have had for a long time."

-From Thoreau's Journal; April 10, 1856

[stringer bell]

Four straight starts of six innings or more, none less than five. In today’s baseball, that is going deep. The Twins are pitching extremely well, and a good thing because the hitting has been spotty and, so far, possible replacements in St. Paul have been less than dominating. 
 

Maeda’s first three starts this year will be against Alcantara, Cease and Cole. Welcome back Kenta. 

[Old Twins Cap]

If the pitching holds, this team will be more than fine.

Games are going by fast, so the lack of offense seems glaring, but, in the end, baseball and its endless rolling through of chance occurrences dictate that good things happen when you limit the other team's offense.

It took longer than we wanted, but the Falvine system, brought over from Cleveland, good starting pitching with lots of young horses in the minors, that system is now up and functioning.

[Peter]

After first full week we are 6-3/first place including taking 2 of 3 against Houston. Great start to season. Tough games this week against white sox and yankees. I’ll be more than happy with 4-3 record that would give us 10-6 record. Rule changes are great as game’s especially twins are must watch!!

[Joey Self]

You just HAD to include this: "(Arraez, naturally, is leading the NL with a .471 batting average.)"

AAAARRRRGGGGHHHHH.

JcS

[wabene]

10 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

SUNDAY, 4/16: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Gerrit Cole

Anybody else looking forward to this matchup?

When is the last time the Twins stacked up like this against a pitcher of this caliber? Johan? Maybe the one good year of the other Santana?

 

 

[minman1982]

Let's say this trend continues for the next four to six weeks. Dominant starting pitching that keeps the team in games, a solid bullpen, and an inconsistent offense. When do the Twins shop a guy like Varland or SWR or Dobnak to see what they can get in return? If they can get someone who can play the outfield and not be an offensive black hole like Taylor, maybe it is worth sending one of these guys somewhere else. There are plenty of other opportunities that open up if the starting five continue to be lights out given that the Twins have two or three young guys sitting in St. Paul that might be good MLB starters.

[jmlease1]

I hope these weekly summaries will help smooth out some of the instant reaction/overreaction to each individual game. Inning. AB. Baseball is a long season.

I hope Polanco is able to get back sooner rather than later. He's a really important part of this club and a really really good player. I would certainly like to see Buxton getting at least some run in CF, because we need more offense than Michael A. Taylor can provide. Bummer that Kirilloff is still much further away, but Larnach's start makes that much more manageable. I'm a fan of Larnach, and I'm not really surprised to see him hitting well.

Very pleased to see what the rotation is doing so far. They're really generating Ks and with the exception of Mahle have done a terrific job in limited hits. And it's not like Mahle is getting knocked around; I think I counted 4 "seeing-eye" singles against him yesterday, and those will even out. Looking forward to seeing how they stack up against the ChiSox.

Did not realize Nick Gordon hadn't struck out at all so far this season. That does put his struggles at the plate in a little different context, but at the same time: he's not making very good contact either. Zero barrels and a dreadful hard-hit % aren't going to get you anywhere. Hopefully he's just a little bit off and can get on track against a division foe.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Fun week of ball! This starting staff should keep most games competitive, which is all I ask for until playoff time!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I have to add this note from the Journal of Henry David Thoreau as I look out at my front field with two feet of snow still covering it.

"Some fields are dried sufficiently for the games of ball with which this season is commonly ushered in. I associate this day, when I can remember it, with games of baseball played over behind the hills of Sleepy Hollow, where the snow was just melted and dried up, also with the uncertainty I always experienced whether the shops would be shut, whether we should have an ordinary dinner, and extraordinary one, or none at all, and whether there would be more than one service at the meeting-house. This last uncertainty old folks share with me. This is a windy day, drying up the fields; the first we have had for a long time."

-From Thoreau's Journal; April 10, 1856

Thanks Mike for this beautiful Thoreau quote. Just really wonderful. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, minman1982 said:

Let's say this trend continues for the next four to six weeks. Dominant starting pitching that keeps the team in games, a solid bullpen, and an inconsistent offense. When do the Twins shop a guy like Varland or SWR or Dobnak to see what they can get in return? If they can get someone who can play the outfield and not be an offensive black hole like Taylor, maybe it is worth sending one of these guys somewhere else. There are plenty of other opportunities that open up if the starting five continue to be lights out given that the Twins have two or three young guys sitting in St. Paul that might be good MLB starters.

Instead of trading a AAA pitcher, for a hitter, simply promote Julien from AAA for now. Now what position can he play? Let's see, today Wili Castro is a 2B. I believe I would rather see Julien at 2B today. The Twins are too loaded at 2B to be playing Wili Castro there. Polanco (injured, but soon to return), Farmer, who has been hitting well and is a good infielder, and Julien are 3 who could play 2B, as can Lewis when he returns in June or July. No need to trade a AAA pitcher for another hitter. Be patient and use what is, or will soon be, available.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, minman1982 said:

Let's say this trend continues for the next four to six weeks. Dominant starting pitching that keeps the team in games, a solid bullpen, and an inconsistent offense. When do the Twins shop a guy like Varland or SWR or Dobnak to see what they can get in return? If they can get someone who can play the outfield and not be an offensive black hole like Taylor, maybe it is worth sending one of these guys somewhere else. There are plenty of other opportunities that open up if the starting five continue to be lights out given that the Twins have two or three young guys sitting in St. Paul that might be good MLB starters.

When was the last time there was a significant trade in May or even June? It's not happening. 

They need to commit to Gallo in the OF, and Julien or Wallner or someone who can hit learning first. Or Wallner in the OF in place of Kepler, who is 3+ years into a hitting slump.....I don't know if Wallner can hit or not, but I'm pretty sure we know about Kepler at this point.

Heck, if Lee hits well for a month, I'd call him up. Other teams seem ok with having young players out there w/o much/any AAA experience.

They need Polanco to come back hitting.

[stringer bell]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

They need to commit to Gallo in the OF, and Julien or Wallner or someone who can hit learning first. 

In another thread I opined that Wallner will probably never be a major league regular. I think the Twins are going with Gallo at first because he’s pretty capable there. Their two long-term first basemen would be Kirilloff and Miranda, especially since both Lee and Lewis are on the horizon as possible third basemen. Perhaps they will try to move Julien to first, and if they do it would indicate that the future isn’t very bright for Kirilloff. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

In another thread I opined that Wallner will probably never be a major league regular. I think the Twins are going with Gallo at first because he’s pretty capable there. Their two long-term first basemen would be Kirilloff and Miranda, especially since both Lee and Lewis are on the horizon as possible third basemen. Perhaps they will try to move Julien to first, and if they do it would indicate that the future isn’t very bright for Kirilloff. 

A month or more of Taylor "hitting" isn't going to help this team ..... we know that. What we don't know is if Julien or Wallner can hit or not. We also know Gallo is a very good CF......

Heck, put Farmer at third and Miranda at first, but let's stop pretending Taylor is going to hit enough for this offense. I understand not wanting to commit to a long term 1B option, if you think AK can come back.....but teaching one of those two to play first isn't going to set them back (it might slow Julien, but does anyone thing he's a long term 2B with Lee, Lewis, Salas, et. al. in the minor?).

[Major League Ready]

Buxton playing center would be a huge boost.  We have a few guys that could DH and that would be a big upgrade from Taylor's 477 OPS.  Add Polanco back and lineup is much better/deeper.   Also agree with Mike that Julien should be getting some reps at 1B.  He is not an immediate solution, but it would be nice to have him play some 1B if Kirilloff's wrist continues to be a problem.

Correa and Gordon have been the biggest black holes in the lineup.  Correa is going to come out of it.  Replace the DH, get Polanco back and Correa on track and this will be a good offensive team.   Trading away pitching prospects/depth when we already need to make room for Julien / Lewis and perhaps Wallner seems like a very bad idea.

[Vanimal46]

Big barometer test coming up this week. I am thrilled to see the starting staff pitch so well. Rocco, it turns out, does know how to manage a staff when he has talent to work with. 

Correa has a long enough track record to not be concerned about the slow start. However, I am concerned about potential sophomore slumps with Gordon and Miranda.  

Can we please start easing Buxton into CF again? Even with the hot start, he’s only the 8th ranked DH for fWAR and wrc+. It’s a shame we’re only seeing a fraction of the value he can provide for the team. 

[Doctor Gast]

Twins has out hit their opponets 73 to 57. Which shows more the superiority of our pitching than our offensive prowess that also lacks of clutch hitting. But with the absence of Polanco & Kiriloff, a 6-3 record isn't too shabby, also fortunate facing a down HOU team helps.

Hoping for a great series against CWS to go into NY pumped up. 

Julien hasn't been playing a good 2B, Farmer has played very well at 2B with hitting RHPs as well as LHPs and Gallo & Solano has been playing pretty well at 1B. So I'd keep Julien at AAA & have him play more 1B so if Gallo stay out longer or if they want to sub Julien at 1B instead of Gallo & keep Gallo in cOF position, Julien can step in & take over 1B & lead off.

IMO Gordon plays better in the OF both defensively & offensively. Although Gordon hasn't been hitting well I'd still like to see Gordon in CF against LHPs & remove him from 2B, to see if his bat takes off.

[PatPfund]

It is super early for too many snap judgements (I like a lot of what @Doctor Gastsays, but Julien only has one error at 2B, and Solano's brutal boot at 1B the other day on a slow roller was far from pretty well). Miranda has looked pretty bad at 3B, but it is also early, and he didn't even get to play the position much in Spring Training. Maybe they have to move him eventually, or maybe he evens out at third; time will tell.

Upside is that if the pitching stays healthy and/or good the team has a great foundation for winning through the ups and downs of hitting cycles. And hitting is easier to fix than pitching whether it be internally (like Julien, Wallner, or later, Lee/Lewis), or externally through a trade in June/July.

I don't really care about Buxton DHing right now (given the injured bats), because there aren't a lot of big bat alternatives on the pine (Solano and Farmer against lefties, sure, but both are historically not as good against RHs). But when Polanco comes back, he and Byron may need to split the DH as Designated Sore Knee Off Days.

(Seriously) Hope I'm wrong, but my (admittedly medically ignorant) opinion is that Kirilloff shouldn't be counted on at all. Ever. Until he can actually play for a month. Which may be never. 

I also think the team is at least one good reliever short still, though hopefully Winder can help fix that soon. Love the Weekly Nelsons!