Week in Review: Unstoppable Starters

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/3 through Sun, 4/9
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 6-3)
Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +13)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (0.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 4 | MIN 11, MIA 1: Twins Bash Four Homers in Blowout Win
Game 5 | MIA 1, MIN 0: Silent Offense Has No Answer for Alcantara
Game 6 | MIA 5, MIN 2: Lineup Muffled by Marlins, Twins Drop Series
Game 7 | MIN 3, HOU 2: Gray Dominates, Twins Rally for Walk-Off
Game 8 | MIN 9, HOU 6: Pair of Three-Run Homers Bury Astros
Game 9 | HOU 5, MIN 1: Houston Handles Finale to Avoid Sweep

NEWS & NOTES

It didn't take long for Minnesota's abundance of lefty-hitting corner outfield depth to come into play. Max Kepler tweaked his knee running through first on Monday, and when it hadn't improved enough after several days, he was placed on the injured list. Kepler is replaced by prospect Matt Wallner, who made his Twins 2023 debut on Sunday.

Joey Gallo has also been sidelined, dealing with some seemingly mild side soreness, but he hasn't yet joined Kepler on the IL. He hopes to avoid that outcome. We'll see.

Josh Winder, slowed by a shoulder issue (again) this spring, opened up a rehab stint at Fort Myers with two scoreless innings on Friday. One day earlier, Jorge Polanco embarked on his own rehab assignment with the Class-A Mighty Mussels. More on that shortly.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins pitching staff continues to dazzle day after day. The rotation has been better than anyone could have imagined, pacing the entire league in a variety of stat categories while delivering consistently strong outings regardless of the opponent.

All is going pretty much exactly how the front office drew it up: quality starting pitchers from front to back, with no real weak point to disrupt the competitive flow and give opponents a break. 

Or, as Sonny Gray put it following his brilliant 13-strikeout performance in the home opener: "We’re not constantly waiting to get back to the top of the rotation for a good outing or a good start. We’ve got five guys that, say I go out there and s*** the bed, the next guy picks me up."

Fortunately, bed accidents haven't been much of a concern thus far, with each member of the rotation looking tremendous without exception. Joe Ryan followed Gray on Saturday with an outing far more impressive than his final line (4 ER in 6 IP) suggests; Ryan had one bad sequence in the third, culminating in a Yordan Alvarez grand slam, but otherwise shut Houston down with 10 strikeouts and one walk. 

Pablo López showed ace form in seven masterful innings Wednesday against the Marlins, continuing to stymy hitters with an upgraded arsenal that now includes a whiff-inducing sweeper. Tyler Mahle looked great in both of his starts, posting a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 innings while exhibiting no signs of shoulder trouble. What an absurd asset to have as your "fourth starter."

Even Kenta Maeda – the biggest question mark of the group coming off a long absence and rough spring – sparkled in his season debut, holding the Marlins to one run over five innings with nine strikeouts on Tuesday. 

He's the only rotation member we've seen just once. Monday's match-up against the White Sox will be telling after Maeda came out of his first start due to fatigue.

Already painting a stark contrast to last year, every starting pitcher has delivered at least five innings in every start, never letting a game get out of range on their watch. The success of the rotation has, in turn, reduced the burden on the bullpen, which has largely gotten the job done through nine games. 

Jhoan Durán has been doing his thing, posting three scoreless appearances in key spots. Saturday's save, which saw the righty slam the door on three pitches, exemplified the way his excellence has almost become casual.

Minnesota's offense was much more of a mixed bag, but one big standout deserves mention: Trevor Larnach is blossoming before our eyes. He has played a vital role, slotting into the No. 2, 3, and 4 spots in the lineup while Polanco is sidelined, and Larnach is paying off his manager's vote of confidence.

He went 6-for-23 last week with a homer, triple, and four walks, showing impressive patience at the plate and his signature all-fields pop. Larnach has reached base at least once in every game. 

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins lineup went from slugging to sluggish in Miami, scoring 11 runs on four homers Monday and then managing two total runs in the final two games to drop the series. In Friday's home opener, the bats were mostly silenced before rallying for a pair of runs in the 10th to win. They awakened with a nine-run outburst on Saturday, but then were were held to two hits on Sunday.

As Yogi would say, it's déjà vu all over again.

Cold bats in the early weeks aren't unusual, and the great Twins pitching has largely offset the run-scoring struggles. Still, fans can't be blamed for feeling apprehensive about what they're seeing, having watched the 2022 lineup short-circuit so frequently. (They were held to two or fewer runs in one-third of their games.)

Several key hitters are struggling, but for what it's worth, there aren't a ton of underlying signs here that cause alarm. Nick Gordon is batting .091 despite striking out zero times in 24 plate appearances. That won't hold up. José Miranda doesn't have an extra-base hit yet. That won't hold up. Carlos Correa has a .492 OPS. You KNOW that won't hold up.

Things are going to give. 

In addition to waiting out those inevitabilities, there are some actions at the team's disposal to give the offense a boost. One of them would be pulling Byron Buxton back from his strict DH relegation: the byproduct of his starting there exclusively is that Michael A. Taylor is occupying a daily spot in the batting order. Taylor has looked horrible at the plate, and while he's not going to hit .194 all year, he will likely continue to be an offensive liability – especially against righties.

Buxton's presence in the lineup is crucial, and he's been in it for eight of the first nine games. So, I can see why the Twins would take a "why fix it" mindset. But the lineup does need some fixing, and getting Buxton into center to free up the DH spot here and there would be a simple incremental improvement. I'm just not sure the Twins are willing to go there at this point.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Another clear path to improving the Twins lineup is getting Polanco back near the top of it. Larnach's emergence has been a huge help, but the absence of Polanco's switch-hitting stick along with Luis Arraez's departure is definitely being felt at the front of the order. (Arraez, naturally, is leading the NL with a .471 batting average.)

Although Polanco's return isn't imminent, for the first time since early spring training, it feels like we have a solid timeline taking shape.

Polanco kicked off an official rehab stint at Fort Myers, playing five innings on Thursday and seven on Saturday for the Mighty Mussels. Because the 29-year-old didn't get much of a spring training experience due to lingering knee soreness, he's going to need a full ramp-up, and it'd be no surprise if the Twins used nearly their full 20-day rehab window (or even extended it) to acclimate him.

That said, Polanco probably has the ability to accelerate his own timeline. If he's feeling and looking good on the field in the coming week, playing full games and producing, he'll be in line for a move to Triple-A and the majors soon after.

As for Alex Kirilloff, whose bat could be a pivotal difference-maker for the middle of the lineup? Doesn't sound like he's particularly close.

LOOKING AHEAD

The gauntlet is underway. Minnesota is off to a good start, having notched a series win against an Astros team that completely demolished them in every meeting last year, but their challenge is only beginning.

In a full-slate week ahead with seven games scheduled, the Twins will face arguably their two most-hated rivals, the White Sox and Yankees. Plenty of top-tier pitching is on deck, including three top-10 Cy Young finishers from 2022. 

The early-season proving ground continues. If the Twins come out of this stretch with a winning record we should all be feeling ecstatic.

MONDAY, 4/10: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Cease v. RHP Kenta Maeda
TUESDAY, 4/11: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, 4/12: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Sonny Gray
THURSDAY, 4/13: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Joe Ryan vs TBD
FRIDAY, 4/14: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Tyler Mahle v. LHP Nestor Cortes
SATURDAY, 4/15: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Domingo German
SUNDAY, 4/16: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Gerrit Cole