Astros 5, Twins 1: Twins Come Short on Sweep of Defending World Champs

Box Score:
SP: Tyler Mahle 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (90 pitches, 61 strikes (68% strikes))
Home Runs: none
Top 3 WPA:  Donovan Solano .075, Kyle Farmer .024, Byron Buxton .021
Bottom 3 WPA: Tyler Mahle -.214, Jose Miranda -.102, Nick Gordon -.076
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

Unfortunately, most of the answers to those questions were not encouraging. Mahle had a good news/bad news outing, the Twins struggled against high-velocity rookie pitcher Hunter Brown, and they lost the last game of the series 5-1.

Mahle’s Other Big Problem
The good news is that Mahle’s velocity numbers remain high, demonstrating that the shoulder fatigue that ended his 2022 season, is being held at bay. The bad news is that was only half his problem in 2022.

While the rest of Twins Territory worried about the health of Mahle’s shoulder last year, he was worried about something else. “The big problem I had last year was not to lefties but to righties,” Mahle confided during spring training. “I didn't have a slider breaking ball. So I was, you know, it was pretty tough to get righties out. But I think what I have now, I think it's gonna be a big difference.”

His stats last year tell a similar story. Mahle, a right-handed pitcher, had “reverse splits.” Usually, pitchers struggle against opposite-handed hitters, but Mahle was great versus left-handees, holding them to a .192 batting average and a 602 OPS. But right-handers hit .268 against him with a 783 OPS. It was a similar story in 2021.

The cliché is that starting pitchers need three pitches, but a more true statement is that they need two pitches that work versus both right-handed and left-handed hitters. A fastball works against both sides, but off-speed pitches are generally more effective vs one side or the other. So a pitcher wants to have two off-speed pitches: one that works vs the same-handed batter, and one versus the opposite-handed batter.

A slider generally works against a same-handed batter. So Mahle went to DriveLine, a performance training center, to work on it early in the offseason. Things clicked fast. There was a slight change to the grip, but the big change was a mindset change: quit trying to throw it so hard. “I'm not like trying to throw a 90 mile an hour slider, you know, because what I'm good at is getting behind the ball. So if I think I'm gonna try to throw something hard, I'm gonna get behind it, which isn't good for a slider,” said Mahle.

So while we’re all interested in Mahle’s velocity readings to gauge the strength of his shoulder, it may be nearly as important to see how he’s doing versus right-handers, and particularly when throwing that slider. 

This makes the Astros a tough matchup for Mahle. They only have three left-handed hitters on their roster, and usually only two are in the lineup. Except for Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez – two excellent hitter in their own right – Mahle had to face all right-handed bats.

Sure enough, the damage that was done in third inning was done by two right-handed hitters. #9 hitter Mauricio Dubon singled on a ground ball through the middle. Then Chas McCormick belted a home run into the right field bleachers. 

And yes, both hits came on sliders.  

The story was similar in the fifth inning, when the Twins gave up two more runs. All three hits that led to runs were hit by right-handed hitters – a leadoff single by Jeremy Pena, a double down the first base line by Dubon and a two run-scoring single by McCormick again. 

The slider, it looks like, remains a work in progress. Mahle threw it 34 times, got 16 strikes on it (five swinging), three outs, but gave up four hits. "Yeah, today it was good. I thought it was better than my last start," Mahle said after the game. "It's just more consistent and the action I wanted."

His development of that pitch, and the results he gets versus right-handed hitters, will likely drive his success this season at least as much as his radar gun numbers. 

How Would You Score It?
There was a scoring change on the run that Byron Buxton scored in the fourth inning, and that led to some debate in the press box. Buxton hit a ground ball that would likely have been an infield single, but the throw also got past the first baseman, so Buxton took second base. The next two batter struck out. Then Donovan Solano hit a double into the right-field corner that scored Buxton.

Originally, his run was counted as an “earned” run. A run is earned if the scorekeeper decide that the run would’ve scored regardless of any errors made during the inning. Essentially, the scorer was saying that had there not been a throwing error and Buxton would have had to stay on first base, he still would’ve scored on that double. 

In the fifth inning, that was changed to an unearned run, saying the opposite was true: that Buxton would’ve been held up at third base (or been out had he not). Here’s the play. Judge for yourself. Let’s hear what you think in the comments.

Low Leverage Leakage
If you’re looking for something from the series to worry about (and what Minnesota sports fan isn’t?), one group that struggled in the series was the backend of the bullpen. That’s to be expected of course - the Astros have a great lineup, and Jovani Moran, Jorge Alcala, and Emilio Pagan are in the back-end of the bullpen for a reason: because they are not yet accomplished enough to be among the Twins top relievers.

But it’s doubtful this series did much to build their (or Rocco Baldelli’s) confidence. Saturday, Moran was handed a five-run lead in the ninth inning and turned it into a save opportunity for Jhoan Duran. Sunday, Alcala cruised through a seventh inning, but started the eighth with two walks that eventually turned into a run (albeit unearned). Finally, Pagan was the pitcher on the mound when that run came across the plate.

Pagan got the Twins out of the jam and had a more tempered ninth inning after giving up a lead off double in the inning. 

This is part of the learning process, and it’s how low-leverage become high-leverage relievers. But right now, it doesn’t look like any of the three are ready to leapfrog into a more critical role. 

What’s Next? 
Twins begin their second series of the homestand against the Chicago White Sox on Monday afternoon. Kenta Maeda is set to make his second start of the season against last year’s runner-up for the AL Cy Young, Dylan Cease. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. 

Postgame Interview 

Coming soon.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet