Predicting the Twins Top Three Stars of the Second Half

[Ted Schwerzler]

Entering the All-Star Break the Minnesota Twins own a two-game lead in the AL Central Division and currently have a 47.3% playoff probability per Fangraphs. They’ve been carried by the likes of Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, and Jhoan Duran thus far. Who are the players that can help them capture another division title the rest of the way?

 

Both Byron Buxton and Luis Arraez were named first-time All-Stars for the Minnesota Twins this season. At 2.9 and 2.3 fWAR respectively, they currently pace the club and are certainly deserving. As Buxton angles himself towards MVP votes and looks to reign in his production as a whole, while Arraez tries to capture a batting title, both players should remain important cogs in the second half. For a team that took on water during the final week against Chicago, and clearly needs some help, that pairing has to have players within the clubhouse step up.

Right now Max Kepler is the only other teammate to hit the 2.0 fWAR mark, while Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Dylan Bundy have each accumulated at least 1.0 fWAR on the mound. That puts the foursome into a territory of usefulness to this point, but Rocco Baldelli will need second-half surges from somewhere. Here are three names that could become incredibly impactful down the stretch.

3. Bailey Ober
Having spent separate stints on the injured list this season due to a groin issue, Ober has made just seven starts and hasn’t appeared for Minnesota since June 1. He will need to take multiple turns prior to getting back on the bump, but the hope would be that he can provide a stabilizing rotation presence by August.

While Josh Winder and Devin Smeltzer have taken turns, and Cole Sands has been sprinkled in, Ober’s presence is clearly missed. His 4.01 ERA this season is backed by a 2.79 FIP. The strikeout numbers are slightly down, but he has been stingy with home runs to this point. Ober looked the part of a solid mid-rotation piece last season, and there’s no denying that Minnesota could use that right now. It’s not about Ober coming back and throwing like an ace, but if he can spell the bullpen usage and give consistent turns, that’d be a massive boost to a unit that needs a lift.

2. Alex Kirilloff
The former top prospect was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul when the wrist issues clearly weren’t working out. 10 games into the season Kirilloff owned a .398 OPS and his process at the plate was broken. Fast forward to where we are now and Kirilloff owns an .808 OPS across his last 28 games. He has 10 extra-base hits and while just three of them are homers, it’s clear he can once again drive the ball.

Kirilloff isn’t likely a massive power hitter in the vein of 40 home run potential, but he should run into plenty of extra-base hits utilizing the gaps at Target Field. He’s also a solid defender at first base and isn’t out of his element in the outfield. This is a pure hitter, and when the swing is going right, it’s as pretty as it gets. A stretch of an OPS around .900 isn’t inconceivable, and that’d be a massive boost to a lineup that has gone dormant far too often this season.

1. Carlos Correa
The guy you spent the money to bring a splash should show up biggest when the stage is the brightest. Correa hasn’t been bad by any means this season. His 1.7 fWAR is 5th among Twins hitters. To date, Correa owns an .803 OPS which equates to the same 131 OPS+ when he posted an .850 OPS one season ago. This is a guy with game-changing offensive potential, however, and more can be expected from that type of leader.

Through the first month, Correa posted just a .633 OPS. In 51 games since he owns an .867 OPS with 20 extra-base hits, 10 of which have left the yard. Correa has looked the part of a superstar in the field, and he’s flashed that at the plate, but it’s time for another level to be reached. It seems all but certain he’ll opt out of his deal with the Twins, and whether he re-signs with Minnesota or not, there’s an opportunity to make himself a few extra bucks the rest of the way.

Who are you hoping breaks through with a big performance down the stretch? Any sleeper candidates?

 

View full article

[Dave The Dastardly]

Miranda

[Karbo]

If the Twins can land a frontline starter I'd put Ober in the pen for the rest of the year, if he can get healthy. There is also Larnach coming back. But what we really need is for Rocco to be a bit more flexible with his starters IMO. I know I've been told I'm told "old school" about it but there have been many times that I felt the starter may have been able to deeper into a game and he gets yanked due to the "spread sheet" of our manager. An extra few outs here or there would take that much of a load off an over worked (and IMO under talented) bullpen.

[chinmusic]

I have nothing against Bailey Ober whatsoever, but it seems as if his perceived value has increased in his absence. To me, he's been like a Michael Pineda in his time with the Twins; steady but hardly a stopper.

I think a healthy Polanco would be a great asset in the second half. Miranda, Kirilloff, Correa, Sanchez, Kepler, et al. The more, the merrier. We shall see.

On a side note, noticed Ryan is starting tomorrow against the Tigers, and Duran (!) on Sunday. as an opener? followed by Gray? The plot thickens.

[nicksaviking]

I will predict another big 2nd half from Polanco, that seems to be his MO. I think Jose Miranda takes off and cements himself as a top offensive player going forward. And this team needs a veteran bulldog on the mound, so I'll say Sonny Gray.

[Puckett34]

Correa, Sanchez, Miranda, Polanco for hitters

Ryan, Duran, Duffy, Traded for relievers for pitchers

[TwinsDr2021]

I am with @nicksaviking I see a big second half from Polanco. I also like AK to improve and really start his ascent to one the better players in the American League (fingers crossed).

As for Ober I don't see it, I don't think he will even be allowed to be the Ober of old until mid to late August and that Ober is no star, just a 4-5 inning pitcher. I can't imagine he can, will have the time or be allowed to even put up Chris Archer's first half stats and I don't see anybody call Archer a Twins first half star.

[Jeff D.]

My opinion only:

Studs second half - Arraez, Kirilloff, Urshela, Polanco, Miranda

Duds second half - Starting staff except Ryan, Relief staff except Dhuran

Would like to see traded for pitching: Kepler, Sano, Jeffers

Wishful thinking: Correa staying, Professor Baldelli gone

Twins geezer.... out!

[TwinsDr2021]

36 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

On a side note, noticed Ryan is starting tomorrow against the Tigers, and Duran (!) on Sunday. as an opener? followed by Gray? The plot thickens.

Interesting, So Duran goes two and Gray 7, imagine if Gray only goes 5, how f'd the bullpen will be after that game?

[chinmusic]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Interesting, So Duran goes two and Gray 7, imagine if Gray only goes 5, how f'd the bullpen will be after that game?

Worth mentioning that ESPN had Duran on Sunday, with MLB.COM "undecided".

Who knows, maybe the bullpen will be reinforced by then. I suppose you can factor in Monday being an off day, as well.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, chinmusic said:

 

On a side note, noticed Ryan is starting tomorrow against the Tigers, and Duran (!) on Sunday. as an opener? followed by Gray? The plot thickens.

That's got to be an error. Even if they wanted to use Duran as an opener, Archer pitches the next game, which means it's all hands on deck. Followed by Bundy who's been getting shelled.

If Duran was going to be an opener, why wouldn't he do it in conjunction with Archer, not Gray?

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, chinmusic said:

I have nothing against Bailey Ober whatsoever, but it seems as if his perceived value has increased in his absence. To me, he's been like a Michael Pineda in his time with the Twins; steady but hardly a stopper.

I think a healthy Polanco would be a great asset in the second half. Miranda, Kirilloff, Correa, Sanchez, Kepler, et al. The more, the merrier. We shall see.

On a side note, noticed Ryan is starting tomorrow against the Tigers, and Duran (!) on Sunday. as an opener? followed by Gray? The plot thickens.

Yes Duran as an opener is a head scratcher. He must be really wanting to get back into starting and followed by Gray. It doesn't make any sense.

I agree that Polanco, Correa, Kiriloff, Miranda and normally Sano takes off the 2nd half. Buxton, Arraez and Duran should remain steady. If long relief is incorperated the rotation will return to greatness. And Archer will continue to improve w/ each start.

[Mortimerkenny21]

Jake Cave!

[Whitey333]

I'm sure I'm in the minority but I would like to see the Twins move on from Correa.  He has been good but definitely not great.  He's supposed to be a superstar.  He definitely has not performed that way for a guy making $35 million or about 40% of the payroll.  He is probably going to walk after the season so maybe trade him for a good major league player and prospects if you can find someone with something to offer.  The pitching staff has been a mess most of the year.  The bullpen mostly disgraceful.  The starters only going 4-5 innings is destroying an overworked bullpen.  I'm not sure at this juncture what we have benefited by having Correa on the team.  What was/ is the FO strategy in having the highest paid infielder in baseball if you have basically a minor league pitching staff?

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I'm sure I'm in the minority but I would like to see the Twins move on from Correa.  He has been good but definitely not great.  He's supposed to be a superstar.  He definitely has not performed that way for a guy making $35 million or about 40% of the payroll.  He is probably going to walk after the season so maybe trade him for a good major league player and prospects if you can find someone with something to offer.

The Twins are in the bottom half of the majors in attendance, and you want to give the fans a slap in the face with a move that will be cast as "typical cheap Pohlads, hur dur, hur dur" on call-in shows?

[Twinsrtheworst]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I'm sure I'm in the minority but I would like to see the Twins move on from Correa.  He has been good but definitely not great.  He's supposed to be a superstar.  He definitely has not performed that way for a guy making $35 million or about 40% of the payroll.  He is probably going to walk after the season so maybe trade him for a good major league player and prospects if you can find someone with something to offer.  The pitching staff has been a mess most of the year.  The bullpen mostly disgraceful.  The starters only going 4-5 innings is destroying an overworked bullpen.  I'm not sure at this juncture what we have benefited by having Correa on the team.  What was/ is the FO strategy in having the highest paid infielder in baseball if you have basically a minor league pitching staff?

So to catch you up a bit.  Most were screaming on here to let the rookie pitchers take over.  Unfortunately those pushing that naritive found out what happens...and it's not great.  But they will scream the same next year again.

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, chinmusic said:

I have nothing against Bailey Ober whatsoever, but it seems as if his perceived value has increased in his absence. To me, he's been like a Michael Pineda in his time with the Twins; steady but hardly a stopper.

Backup QB syndrome. What's funny is that his most glaring issue, an inability to stay on the field, doesn't seem to ding that perceived value much. Pitching starved fanbase yada yada, but Pineda looks like an iron man in comparison. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, se7799 said:

So to catch you up a bit.  Most were screaming on here to let the rookie pitchers take over.  Unfortunately those pushing that naritive found out what happens...and it's not great.  But they will scream the same next year again.

Uh what? Ryan, Ober, Winder, Jax and Duran have been the problem?

Here this whole time I was thinking the problem was Archer can only go four innings, Bundy couldn’t sneak a fastball past his grandma and the recycled bullpen pieces have been as expected.

[DocBauer]

So making an easy assumption that wasn't stated outright in the OP, we're going to dismiss Buxton, Polanco, Duran, etc, etc, who have performed well. We're looking for 3 MORE to step up, is how I take it.

3] Ober is a great choice. He had a great rookie 2021 and was off to a great 2nd season before his groin injury. The only problem Ober has, in some fans minds, IMO, is not being a top prospect and thus a potential top of the rotation piece. He was magic in the minors, despite missing time with injuries, really good as a rookie brought along slowly to improve, adapt, and monitor IP, and again, was off to a good start in 2022. Except for a couple speed bumps before and after his covid, Bundy has actually been pretty solid. But a healthy Ober is the better pitcher with actual potential. I think k the Twins have really missed him. A couple healthy months could go a long way. 

2] Kirilloff is now healthy and just tapping in to his potential. He's an OK OF and great 1B. He's going NOWHERE unless a trade offer is just too damn good to pass up. He's a big part of today and tomorrow. Eventually, if not now, he's going to push the solid Kepler down in the order and be part of the heart of the Twins order for years to come.

3] You're wrong on Correa. While he hasn't necessarily had a "defining" moment, past his slow start, he's been not only productive and great in the field, he's been a leader as well.

A true #3...as of today and not speculating on a trade addition or 2...would be a tie of Miranda and Gray. The break gives Gray time for a re-set to be his normal self and the guy who began the season. Miranda just needs to keep doing what he's doing. So #3 is a tie.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I will predict another big 2nd half from Polanco, that seems to be his MO. I think Jose Miranda takes off and cements himself as a top offensive player going forward. And this team needs a veteran bulldog on the mound, so I'll say Sonny Gray.

I agree.

[RpR]

Garlick, Celestino, Sano

[MTV]

The Twins should use Ober in a long-relief role. He’s been consistently solid through 2 years but never goes more than 4-5 Innings. Considering how long we throw Archer, Bundy, and even Ryan recently, the Twins should set up someone in this role. Winder works in this role too, if he gets another likely call up.

[Rosterman]

Bailey Ober. Jovani Moran. Miguel Sano.

[joefish]

On 7/22/2022 at 5:42 AM, Karbo said:

If the Twins can land a frontline starter I'd put Ober in the pen for the rest of the year, if he can get healthy. There is also Larnach coming back. But what we really need is for Rocco to be a bit more flexible with his starters IMO. I know I've been told I'm told "old school" about it but there have been many times that I felt the starter may have been able to deeper into a game and he gets yanked due to the "spread sheet" of our manager. An extra few outs here or there would take that much of a load off an over worked (and IMO under talented) bullpen.

LOUD AND PROUD OLD SCHOOLER HERE!

[KirbyDome89]

On 7/22/2022 at 7:46 PM, DocBauer said:

3] Ober is a great choice. He had a great rookie 2021 and was off to a great 2nd season before his groin injury. The only problem Ober has, in some fans minds, IMO, is not being a top prospect and thus a potential top of the rotation piece. He was magic in the minors, despite missing time with injuries, really good as a rookie brought along slowly to improve, adapt, and monitor IP, and again, was off to a good start in 2022. Except for a couple speed bumps before and after his covid, Bundy has actually been pretty solid. But a healthy Ober is the better pitcher with actual potential. I think k the Twins have really missed him. A couple healthy months could go a long way. 

I think people are just being realistic about what Ober is, a back end rotation guy when healthy. That's ok, and you're right, if the Twins find that out of nowhere (not a prospect on the radar) that's a W, but his inability to stay on the field from his time in college to now severely limits that upside. Right now last season's 100 inning mark looks like the exception, or at least the max, and even then it goes unmentioned he was hurt to finish the year too. Ober doesn't get the same benefit of the doubt as uber prospects (think Buxton) because his ceiling isn't something the Twins are incapable of acquiring outside of the organization. 

[ashbury]

On 7/23/2022 at 8:31 AM, Rosterman said:

Bailey Ober. Jovani Moran. Miguel Sano.

On a phone screen it's difficult to remember whether the topic is MVP candidates, or trade chips for an ace.