MadBaum to the D-Backs

[Otto von Ballpark]

As to "Bumgarner didn't want to come here" -- I understand up to a point, but at the same time, part of the job of the front office is to attract talent. There are limitations to that, of course, but in an elite entertainment industry, it's not an unrealistic expectation.

[lukeduke1980]

Homer Bailey is still available right? 

[Danchat]

I'm a bit torn on this one, since 5/$85M is something I would pull the trigger on. $100M+ would be too much for me, so I'm surprised he didn't end up getting more than that.

 

On one hand, I find it reasonable that Wheeler & Bumgarner wanted to stay in the NL and play for their [reportedly] preferred teams. The White Sox have been linked to everyone too, and outside of landing Grandal, they have had trouble inking guys, despite offering Wheeler more.

 

On the other hand, I'm pretty frustrated that they haven't been able to increase their offers. If we're going to take a Tampa/Oakland/Cleveland-type approach of focusing on prospects and trades over free agency, I don't see why they're bothering to contact these guys in the first place. And I would prefer to see some trades happening too. 

 

As one who is usually on the defensive side for Falvey/Levine, I'm disappointed so far. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Zero reason we couldn't top that. Inexcusable. 

Maybe the Twins did top that.

[Patrick Wozniak]

"As The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly recently noted, Bumgarner has horses in the Phoenix area and loves it there." We never had a chance!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On the other hand, I'm pretty frustrated that they haven't been able to increase their offers. If we're going to take a Tampa/Oakland/Cleveland-type approach of focusing on prospects and trades over free agency, I don't see why they're bothering to contact these guys in the first place.

This is a fair take. Remember, most of this angst isn't because fans were wishing for guys that the front office was never really interested in -- the FO has publicly signaled their interest in these guys, and have had talks/negotiations with them too. Darvish two years ago, then Wheeler and Bumgarner this offseason. I'm probably missing a few (trade targets too?). And each time, our final offer seems a little unsatisfying if we actually wanted the player. It feels more like we just wanted a bargain.

 

Not that the front office is doing a bad job overall or anything, but I would like to finally see evidence of them actually *wanting* a premium player, and demonstrating a capability of doing what it takes to land him (within reason, of course!). Be it by FA or by trade, for a SP or some other position, offseason or trade deadline (although offseason is obviously preferred right now ). And there's certainly time for them to do that yet this offseason, but I'm a little anxious about it.

[Crackedfungo]

For every Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke FA contract that works out well in a few of the years, you have the David Price's, Yu Darvish's, John Lester's, and Mike Hampton's that might have a couple solid years (or even one good one) but are then surrounded by years of overpay, under-performance, and injury.  In effect, you are paying for past performance in almost all cases.   Thus, the key herein, is to be CERTAIN or LUCKY that you signed the right guy, for the right money, at the right time (when your core players peak simultaneously with no slumps or injuries), and at the right term. 

 

As far as the pitchers that were out there, Cole might be the best of the bunch, but he will never perform up to a 9 year deal at $300+, and Strauss will likely perform for the better part of his shorter deal, then drop down for 3-4 years).  The Astros, Nats, and Yankees will have an Ace to fall back on if they don't work out (due to $ or existing player).  Greinke had a deal with AZ that they couldn't wait to get rid of.  So, for those that say you must find the Scherzer - that is a TALL order, and tens or hundreds of millions can be sunk before finding him.  Even Kershaw is starting to lose luster at this point (and I know he wasn't a FA).  I am not saying that you don't roll the dice, but I am saying the returns are pretty mixed to poor.  At this point, I think there is little left in FA that I might bother with (don't need more retreads blocking a trial #5 spot), and I think more than 4 years for MadBum and more than 3 for Ryu is crazy given their situation and history.  We will need to make a trade for an option and it won't be cheap. Pitching deep teams like Atlanta would be my targets (I like Wright or Anderson, or perhaps move Newcomb back to starter), or teams that have no window open, and a 25-27 year old that has great stuff.  I think the track records with the Verlander's and others had in trade would rival or even exceed the FA signings - I would love to see a deep 20 year analysis of Trades versus FA with Ace SP, as I am going off memory only.  

 

However, none of the above changes the fact that the Twins simply must protect their highest pitching prospects in the minors, as we will need 1-3 of them to be average to above average to ace in the next 3-5 years.  So, I would move some from the glut of OF and 1B/DH (certain names might be painful, but you only really need one to two of them dependent upon Buxton/Rosario situations) to get one 25-27 YO with the 'stuff' that Falvine are optimistic about (and throw in some other high prospect regulars as sweeteners that will challenge our 40 man within 1-2 years).  We aren't getting an Ace to MN in FA without a tie of some sort - I simply don't believe we have the draw (someone mentioned above that $ alone does not decide things for mega multi-millionaire's with young families with no according draw/tie to the midwest).  If you don't believe this, you are in DENIAL.  Look across ALL sports, and you will find this to be true.......We need a Ryu for 3 years (which I still put at <25%), or a well-scouted trade, coupled with serious development focus for our top 7 minor league pitching prospects.  These SPs will matter much more to our prospects for 3-5 years than any trade or FA (in my opinion).

[cmoss84]

"As The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly recently noted, Bumgarner has horses in the Phoenix area and loves it there." We never had a chance!

Told a friend this and his response was, "you shouldn't talk about his wife and girlfriend like that."

[dbminn]

 

If the Dodgers et al. weren't willing to pay him more, maybe there's a reason.

 

Income taxes. Compare California to Arizona and you get a $100M contract. 

[howeda7]

 

Maybe the Twins did top that.

According Doogie (consider source I know) they didn't. They wouldn't go 5 years at all. 

[howeda7]

 

Income taxes. Compare California to Arizona and you get a $100M contract. 

Only ~60% of his income would be earned in California and 15% still will be playing for the D-Backs. 

[dbminn]

 

Only ~60% of his income would be earned in California and 15% still will be playing for the D-Backs. 

 

True

[beckmt]

We all know the last few years of an FA pitcher contract of longer years will be probably bad.  Two things I have to make out of this

1.  They have to lock up Berrios and or sign Oderizzi to a longer term contract.

2.  Flavine had better be sure the Twins have 2 front line starter close to major league ready.  Otherwise this winter has been a waste of time.

3.  I am sure if 2020 is a bad year many of us will have the pitchforks out.

[Twodogs]

Seems a little weird that the Dbacks would sign Madbum after getting rid of Greinke??

[drivlikejehu]

 

That's not really the case, of course. Not every team is in the Twins same position, so their decision to not offer $100 mil to Bumgarner isn't remotely equivalent. Most obviously, the Yankees, Nationals, and Phillies may have thought he was worth $100 mil but they're not buying another starter. You could probably put the Mets in that group too. Then there tons of teams who aren't really in a buying position right now -- Orioles, Tigers, Marlins, Royals, etc., but even Boston, Cubs, and others.

 

Very few clubs are totally set #1-5. Even for clubs with luxury tax issues, Bumgarner's AAV turned out to be fairly low. So yeah, technically it's not 29 clubs, but it's not just a few either. 

 

I mean, obviously he is not seen as a top-of-rotation pitcher. That's inarguable. He clearly was seen as inferior to Wheeler (who himself has never been an ace). There is no particular reason that the Twins should have been looking to dramatically overpay for him.

[Mike Sixel]

Seems a little weird that the Dbacks would sign Madbum after getting rid of Greinke??

Why? They couldn't compete just year, so they traded a guy, got prospects, then replaced him. If Bumgarner it's good at all, they pay less, get prospects....

[Dman]

 

I'm a bit torn on this one, since 5/$85M is something I would pull the trigger on. $100M+ would be too much for me, so I'm surprised he didn't end up getting more than that.

 

On one hand, I find it reasonable that Wheeler & Bumgarner wanted to stay in the NL and play for their [reportedly] preferred teams. The White Sox have been linked to everyone too, and outside of landing Grandal, they have had trouble inking guys, despite offering Wheeler more.

 

On the other hand, I'm pretty frustrated that they haven't been able to increase their offers. If we're going to take a Tampa/Oakland/Cleveland-type approach of focusing on prospects and trades over free agency, I don't see why they're bothering to contact these guys in the first place. And I would prefer to see some trades happening too. 

 

As one who is usually on the defensive side for Falvey/Levine, I'm disappointed so far. 

 

I agree with you.  My first reaction was that the money wasn't as bad as i thought it was going to be and if they were in on Bumgarner couldn't they have come up with something slightly better?

 

If Bumgarner didn't really want to come to Minnesota or be a part of an AL team then why are staying in the bidding?  This whole thing seems weird to me.

 

I am not a Bumgarner believer so not THAT disappointed we didn't get him but I don't understand why the FO is in on guys they don't really seem to be in on.  Is this the same scenario for Josh Donaldson?  The FO just wants to hang out with the in crowd but isn't all that serious about stepping up to make a deal?  I honestly don't know what they are doing.  Maybe they are there hoping the price will drop, lol.  

 

At any rate I don't fault the FO on this one as it sounds like he wanted go to Arizona and spurned his own team to do it so good for him.  I think he is over rated anyway and we likely dodged a bullet.  I just hope our FO has a clue about how to sign a top guy in FA.  Given the way things have gone the past few years I have my doubts.  If their mentality is give us value or no deal then please just stop pretending to in on guys OK.

[twins_89]

I can't say I'm overly concerned about the Twins missing out on any single player, but missing out on pretty much every free agent starting pitcher that would be an upgrade over last season hurts. The Twins currently have 2 legitimate starters for the first 40 games, which is not an acceptable position to be in at this point in the off-season.

[adorduan]

 

Are the white sox and tigers your goal for the Twins? You want to be the Tigers right now? I mean they signed some real big contracts and that's fun right? Its fun to have a future hall of famer on your team while you lose 100 games. They aren't winning world series either. The Twins can play in FA in a smart way. They can't afford to have bad contracts. They can't afford to have the last 2 or 3 years of a deal be terrible. Not if they want to compete on a regular basis. If you just want the next 2 years to be all or nothing and are then ok with them losing the majority of their homegrown talent and being really bad again ok. But my guess is you'd then be complaining that the Twins never spend to keep their homegrown guys. There's a budget that they have to stay in. It's easy to spend other people's money, but the fact of the matter is the FO has been given a budget and need to stay within it. Blowing up future budgets for a 1 or 2 year run is a real bold move.

Hey, the Tigers and White Sox have played in the world series a helluva lot more recently that the Twins....

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

According Doogie (consider source I know) they didn't. They wouldn't go 5 years at all. 

And they shouldn't have went 5.

 

How much extra is madbum making by playing in AZ compared to if he had signed here for the same money? Just wondering how much of an impediment our high state taxes are.

 

 

[adorduan]

 

"As The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly recently noted, Bumgarner has horses in the Phoenix area and loves it there." We never had a chance!

I guess we just need to find the stud FA pitcher who loves to fish!

[sftwinsfan]

Interesting that people seem to be of the opinion that Madbum is a bum, the front office knows what they're doing, etc. Then why was the front office in on him all this time if he wasn't any good anymore? Of course he's not worth 5 years, in free agency a pitcher anyone wants is almost never going to be worth what he gets, that's the nature of the beast. So far this front office seems unwilling to spend high draft picks on pitching, unwilling to sign sought after free agents, and unwilling to spend much prospect capital to acquire pitching via trade. They still have some time left to prove me wrong, but so far I'm not overly impressed. 

[howeda7]

 

And they shouldn't have went 5.

 

How much extra is madbum making by playing in AZ compared to if he had signed here for the same money? Just wondering how much of an impediment our high state taxes are.

The tax thing is over-blown.  It's never stopped the Cubs, White Sox or any CA team and they have higher taxes. 50% of your income is earned on the road.  It's hurt the Blue Jays at times, but that's a combination of VERY high taxes and exchange rates at times.

 

He wouldn't come here if our offer was equal to Arizona's. But if we'd offered 5/$100, he's probably a Twin.

[nokomismod]

Pretty "Bummed" about these dbacks swooping in. He was my biggest wishlist for the Twins to sign. He is a horse and uses his body well. I think the dbacks got some really great value in unloading Greinke and bringing in Bumgarner for a lot less cash.

I thought he was country enough where he would dig being able to fish on Lake Minnetonka and experience the outdoor scene that Minnesota has to offer. I'm not sure how much wine and dine takes place with baseball free agency but if it does happen the Twins are at a disadvantage having free agents come here in December.

[h2oface]

 

Why the HELL should the Twins go five years for this guy?  He's declined sharply.  He hardly throws that four seamer anymore and he isn't nearly the guy he was.   WHY WHY WHY do we give him five years?  Because he is "MadBum"??

 

Honestly, getting him is just paying for a name.  He isn't Madison Bumgarner anymore.

 

And Roger Clemens wasn't Roger Clemens anymore, and Justin Verlander wasn't Justin Verlander anymore, and Randy Johnson wasn't Randy Johnson anymore. Yup. It happens. No matter what Bumgarner is now, it won't be for the Twins in a playoff game.

 

I wonder if that window is still open? Did they let all the pitchers out? Just not open wide enough for them to fit through? 

 

[jud6312]

 

Homer Bailey is still available right? 

 

I'm sure we'll get a primer article about it in the coming days ... "Here's Why Homer Bailey is the Best FA fit for the Twins."

[MMMordabito]

 

I'm sure we'll get a primer article about it in the coming days ... "Here's Why Homer Bailey is the Best FA fit for the Twins."

 

It will be a Ted S article too.  All stats that show anything other than "rose-colored" will be eliminated from said article.

 

Also incoming will be a pipe dream Kris Bryant: Trade Target article.  

[Puckett34]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVA-Bx4rNc0

[mikelink45]

 

Come on now, guys.

It’s easy to spend other people’s money...
He didn’t want to play here...
His girlfriend visited Tucson once...
The Diamondbacks overpaid/the market isn’t fair...
The front office is just being patient/ they are geniuses...
Small market team, not enough money...
Don’t want to be stuck with a contract in five years
Maybe Graterol will triple his workload and be an ace
Enjoy the ride...
We won 100 games last year
Etc etc etc

Which excuse will it be this time?

EDIT: Oh a new one!!! He wanted to hit!!

Don't forget he has horses in Arizona

 

[mikelink45]

Better add that Texas got Kluber.  I guess we can expect Ryu to be in the rotation - he is the only one of real value left.