MadBaum to the D-Backs

[SwainZag]

 

Pretty sure his point was that those saying Bumgarner isn't good begs the question why the Twins were pursuing him then....

 

The other poster said he was not good.  Obviously he is good and obviously the Twins wanted him...but there are limits to how much you can want someone.  Being heavy on a guy doesn't mean they will do whatever it takes....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I didn’t really want Bumgarner but seeing another pitcher go off the market (and for that price, to boot) is a real kick in the junk.

[howeda7]

 

And you know this...how?

No one can truly "know" anything in this regard, but I'd be very surprised if he turned down an extra $15 million. We'll never know because we wouldn't even match the Arizona offer much less beat it.

[howeda7]

 

And it kinda looks like the white sox are striving to get there again, soon.

To the people saying "why would we want to be like the White Sox or Tigers?" they've both been to a World Series this century. The Tigers are in the mess their in because they went for it hard 2011-2013. But if I were a Tigers fan, I'd still be glad they did. They've managed the after-math poorly though.

[howeda7]

 

Then why IN on him? Why try? Why worry about it?

 

Shouldn't have even said they wanted him if he's that bad. 

 

So, going 4 was A OK, but going out to 5 is a disaster? If he is declining and our FO and analytics team feel as though he isn't worth having around, then there shouldn't be any reports that the Twins want him. That we are "IN" on him. That we are one of a handful of top suitors. Just say you are "OUT" and that you will look to other avenues to fill your pitching staff. 

Exactly. This FO always seems to draw the line on the extra year. They want MadBaum and have been talking about him for months but that 5th year is just an absolute deal breaker. They were so IN on Craig Kimbrel, but that extra year was a deal breaker. Why must we forever hamstring the current team worrying about 2024?

[howeda7]

 

Do you think a high end pitcher is willing to take a discount deal to stay with a team that isn't willing to go all in and surround him with what it takes to be a champion?

 

Berrios once he gets to free agency if he continues the path he is on will far eclipse the kind of money Bumgarner just got paid here. 

He's not going to take a discount. You over-pay him for his arbitration years (since we have $40 million we're apparently not going to spend) to get him to give you a year or two of FA for a discount. You could probably get him for 5/$60 million right now which would buy out 3 years of arbitration. He gets ~$8 million more this year and takes less in 2024 which is apparently the year we care most about.

[SwainZag]

 

Exactly. This FO always seems to draw the line on the extra year. They want MadBaum and have been talking about him for months but that 5th year is just an absolute deal breaker. They were so IN on Craig Kimbrel, but that extra year was a deal breaker. Why must we forever hamstring the current team worrying about 2024?

 

Kimbrel should be a good example why.  Everyone predicted his control to bounce back and the velocity drop wasn't a big deal.  Yes, he didn't pitch a full season but his control got worse and his velocity dipped once again.  The Cubs are not only paying him $16M this season, but for the next one as well.  The Twins didn't want to go a guaranteed 3rd year for that price and of right now it's looking pretty smart...and it seems like Cubs might think so as well as they have been reportedly strung out on money.  I'm sure they would like to have that $16M to add to that team instead of having Kimbrel on the their roster right now.

[howeda7]

 

Kimbrel should be a good example why.  Everyone predicted his control to bounce back and the velocity drop wasn't a big deal.  Yes, he didn't pitch a full season but his control got worse and his velocity dipped once again.  The Cubs are not only paying him $16M this season, but for the next one as well.  The Twins didn't want to go a guaranteed 3rd year for that price and of right now it's looking pretty smart...and it seems like Cubs might think so as well as they have been reportedly strung out on money.  I'm sure they would like to have that $16M to add to that team instead of having Kimbrel on the their roster right now.

I wasn't big on them getting Kimbrel, I would have preferred Keuchel. But I still think the point stands that if you want a guy that bad, walking away over an extra year is odd and something they have to get over.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kimbrel should be a good example why.  Everyone predicted his control to bounce back and the velocity drop wasn't a big deal.  Yes, he didn't pitch a full season but his control got worse and his velocity dipped once again.  The Cubs are not only paying him $16M this season, but for the next one as well.  The Twins didn't want to go a guaranteed 3rd year for that price and of right now it's looking pretty smart...and it seems like Cubs might think so as well as they have been reportedly strung out on money.  I'm sure they would like to have that $16M to add to that team instead of having Kimbrel on the their roster right now.

 

It is a good example, though I'm pretty sure most of what I read said he was a bad bet.....

 

that said, if you won't ever go the extra year, you may as well give up on FA as a strategy to get pitching that is for more than 1-2 years....in which case you need to be right year after year in your acquisitions. Which is fine, but then you need to do it year after year (even in years when there aren't clearly good pitchers available).

[SwainZag]

 

It is a good example, though I'm pretty sure most of what I read said he was a bad bet.....

 

that said, if you won't ever go the extra year, you may as well give up on FA as a strategy to get pitching that is for more than 1-2 years....in which case you need to be right year after year in your acquisitions. Which is fine, but then you need to do it year after year (even in years when there aren't clearly good pitchers available).

 

I see no evidence they will never go the extra year, but it's becoming evident it needs to the right guy.  Bumgarner has started 17, 21 and 34 games in the past 3 years after 6 straight seasons of 200+ IP. His arm obviously has a lot of mileage, even for only coming into his 31 year old season. His xFIP has been above 4.00 in all 3 of those years.  There has also been little mention of his outrageous home/away splits.  He is simply a different pitcher away from the friendly confines of Oracle. There are a lot of signs on to why the front office wasn't willing to go 5 years.  Hell, for all we know, they might not have been willing to go over 3 years.  I think each player needs to be placed in their own vaccum before just declaring "they are never willing to go the extra year."  Just the way I see it.

 

They weren't willing to go an extra year on Darvish, Kimbrel and now Bumgarner.   Am I missing anyone?  I think the jury is out on all 3 to see if they will be worth it.   

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I see no evidence they will never go the extra year.

 

Better look again. Every FA they've been rumored to be after for the last 3 years has been this. They also haven't signed anyone to a deal longer than 2 years since Falvine took over. I'd say there's plenty of evidence. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see no evidence they will never go the extra year, but it's becoming evident it needs to the right guy.  Bumgarner has started 17, 21 and 34 games in the past 3 years after 6 straight seasons of 200+ IP. His arm obviously has a lot of mileage, even for only coming into his 31 year old season. His xFIP has been above 4.00 in all 3 of those years.  There has also been little mention of his outrageous home/away splits.  He is simply a different pitcher away from the friendly confines of Oracle. There are a lot of signs on to why the front office wasn't willing to go 5 years.  Hell, for all we know, they might not have been willing to go over 3 years.  I think each player needs to be placed in their own vaccum before just declaring "they are never willing to go the extra year."  Just the way I see it.

 

They weren't willing to go an extra year on Darvish, Kimbrel and now Bumgarner.   Am I missing anyone?  I think the jury is out on all 3 to see if they will be worth it.   

 

Given this FO has not signed a FA to more than 3 (and that is only 1 FA, and an inexpensive player) years, I'd call that evidence. Admittedly, the sample size is small.......and that could change.

[wabene]

yeah, i have, for the frickin money to be exact. sometimes in life you got to do crappy things you don't want to.

Lance Lynn

[rdehring]

 

1. He still get to winter wherever he wants, regardless of where he signs. Arizona does have the benefit of being his spring training site though too, so that's an extra ~40 days, albeit working days. Otherwise, the difference is usually more like ~90 days, mostly working days, spread over the 6 month regular season (mostly summer, non-school months, where children are a consideration).

 

3. I doubt taxes are ever much of a consideration with these deals. If the decision isn't made on raw dollars, then it's the factors in #1 or which team is better / provides the better opportunity.

 

If you're talking about matching 5/85 or nominally beating it (5/85 with nothing deferred, or 5/90?), then I agree, it probably wouldn't have made much difference. But I think significantly beating it (5/100?) would probably give most players pause, even after considering the non-monetary factors above, and would give you fair odds to either land the player or force the other team to counter-offer. The examples of players turning down significantly more money are few and far between.

No need to debate this subject spycake.  Was just pointing out three reasons I could see him, and any advisor, recommending his taking that offer.  

 

And with him already wintering there, if he in fact does, this would mean he wouldn't have to move and wouldn't have to arrange for a second home/residence during the season.  Also means that he would be around his kids, assuming he has kids, for the entire year rather than being away while they were at Home A or B during the school year.  That could be a huge reason, both irritation wise and dollars.  

 

As for the taxes, not certain but Arizona has either a tiny tax or no state income tax.  If that is correct, say 8% on over $40,000,000 works out to be more than $3,000,000.  May not be the first thing he thought of, but I can guarantee that his agent and financial advisors have it high on the list of things he should consider.  If they didn't, they should be replaced.

 

 

[rdehring]

 

Pretty sure his point was that those saying Bumgarner isn't good begs the question why the Twins were pursuing him then....

I'll also take a shot at this, Mike.  Although you do ask a good question.

 

As for me, you may have noticed I haven't been high on any of the three remaining...as of yesterday.  Understood we had no chance/interest from the big two.  Thought Wheeler made a lot of sense and understand why that didn't work.  As for MadRyuKo, remain hopeful we don't sign any of them.  And if we get either of the two remaining, hopefully it will be for two years, three max.

[Vanimal46]

Probably a good thing the Twins didn’t sign him. If the title indicates anything, fans can’t spell MadBum anyways. Or Baumgartner, Bumgardener, Bumgarter....

 

Though it would have been cool to have our own version of Henry Rowengarter from Rookie of the Year and just mispronounce his name for the next 5 years!

[ewen21]

Then why IN on him? Why try? Why worry about it?

 

Shouldn't have even said they wanted him if he's that bad.

 

So, going 4 was A OK, but going out to 5 is a disaster? If he is declining and our FO and analytics team feel as though he isn't worth having around, then there shouldn't be any reports that the Twins want him. That we are "IN" on him. That we are one of a handful of top suitors. Just say you are "OUT" and that you will look to other avenues to fill your pitching staff.

I gave my opinion, not what I thought they would do. You’re conflating the two. I am not answering for our GMs nor am I defending them. Please don’t ask me to do that. To be honest with you, however, I would have told them not to bother Bumgarner.

 

I’ve already run through the reasons why I would pass on this guy so I won’t repeat it. If he turns around and does the improbable then I’ll have egg on my face for all the preaching I’ve done. And I’m not saying he CAN’T rekindle his career and be that guy again for a few years. I’m just saying I’m willing to put a significant amount of money against it because his decline already started.

 

BYTO, I respect you and enjoy your posts. This last paragraph is not for you.

 

I’d also like to respond to those who mention Verlander, Clemens and Randy Johnson. You have to go back thirty years to find three guys who got better after a big deal in their 30s. And in the interest of accuracy Verlander was acquired in a trade. For every one of these guys there are literally hundreds of pitchers who hit 32 and experience a precipitous fall.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And with him already wintering there, if he in fact does, this would mean he wouldn't have to move and wouldn't have to arrange for a second home/residence during the season.  Also means that he would be around his kids, assuming he has kids, for the entire year rather than being away while they were at Home A or B during the school year.  That could be a huge reason, both irritation wise and dollars.  

A couple things:

 

1. It appears that Madison Bumgarner does not have any children (although he's been married for 9 years so he could be closer to starting a family than, say, Zack Wheeler, who isn't even married yet).

 

2. I don't think Bumgarner actually winters in Arizona, at least not exclusively. Looking more closely, I don't think I've seen any mention of a home in Arizona -- I've only read that he has horses there. "Horses" does look like "houses". I've read that he and his wife have a large farm/ranch in their native North Carolina where they live in the offseason -- they are both from North Carolina.

 

It doesn't seem that Arizona or Florida do particularly well with free agents, so I'm guessing spring training home may not be a big factor either. Bumgarner would have some familiarity with Arizona though, which is an advantage, but likely not insurmountable.

 

(As for taxes, I'm sure his agent knows and he must have a financial adviser type too, but frankly I just can't imagine it being any kind of factor for these guys, at this level, relative to a million other factors. Heck, I might prioritize horses before relative state tax burdens, and I've never ridden a horse in my life!)

[SF Twins Fan]

 

I'm so happy to see MadBum off the table. He may have possibly 2 good years left if they are lucky.

A lot of people were saying that about Verlander when he was traded as well.... He was much older than Madbum and has pitched quite well for Houston.

[rdehring]

 

A couple things:

 

1. It appears that Madison Bumgarner does not have any children (although he's been married for 9 years so he could be closer to starting a family than, say, Zack Wheeler, who isn't even married yet).

 

2. I don't think Bumgarner actually winters in Arizona, at least not exclusively. Looking more closely, I don't think I've seen any mention of a home in Arizona -- I've only read that he has horses there. "Horses" does look like "houses". I've read that he and his wife have a large farm/ranch in their native North Carolina where they live in the offseason -- they are both from North Carolina.

 

It doesn't seem that Arizona or Florida do particularly well with free agents, so I'm guessing spring training home may not be a big factor either. Bumgarner would have some familiarity with Arizona though, which is an advantage, but likely not insurmountable.

 

(As for taxes, I'm sure his agent knows and he must have a financial adviser type too, but frankly I just can't imagine it being any kind of factor for these guys, at this level, relative to a million other factors. Heck, I might prioritize horses before relative state tax burdens, and I've never ridden a horse in my life!)

Thanks for the information about his family and lack of kids.  Will agree that AZ doesn't mean much if in fact his horses are in North Carolina.  I don't know what type of horses, riding they do.  I do know that the equestrian business is huge in the California desert and Phoenix area.  Have a friend who's daughter is a professional trainer/rider and they spend half their life at events in the two areas.  

 

I must respectfully disagree about the taxes however.  You may be correct that it isn't at the top of his list.  But when talking about what could be in excess of $3,000,000 (net to him) over a relatively short period of time, I can guarantee it is high on somebody's list...somebody who has his ear and he respects a lot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I’d also like to respond to those who mention Verlander, Clemens and Randy Johnson. You have to go back thirty years to find three guys who got better after a big deal in their 30s. And in the interest of accuracy Verlander was acquired in a trade. For every one of these guys there are literally hundreds of pitchers who hit 32 and experience a precipitous fall.

That's not 30 years, unless you're counting from the beginning of Clemens and Johnson's careers for some reason. Both were great in their 30's within the last 20 years.

 

But I don't even think you have to go back that far. Not sure quite what you mean by "after a big deal" but Max Scherzer has been great in his 30s after a big FA contract. Greinke too. Those are within the last 5 years. Have "literally" 200 pitchers, as good as Bumgarner at age 29/30, fallen off a cliff at age 32 in the past 5 years? Only 200 pitchers have started as many as 55 games total over the last 5 years.

 

It's fair to question how good Bumgarner will be specifically, but he wouldn't be some great historical outlier to be worth this contract through age 34/35. Andy Pettitte might be a good comp? Jon Lester. Cole Hamels. Although he'd also have company if he failed too, like Barry Zito!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Via MLBTR:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/details-on-madison-bumgarners-agreement-with-the-diamondbacks.html

 

 

The Diamondbacks were Bumgarner’s top choice in free agency “provided they could pay him at an appropriate level,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) hears from a source close to the left-hander.  The $85MM guarantee was enough to get it done, though $15MM of the money is deferred.  While it wasn’t quite the five-year/$100MM commitment Bumgarner and his camp were reportedly hoping to land, it could be that the D’Backs came close enough, or — as Rosenthal speculates — perhaps no team was willing to go to nine figures for Bumgarner’s services.

 

It seems like a $100 mil could have overcome horses. Or at least made the horses counter-offer.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 

 

 

.  We aren't getting an Ace to MN in FA without a tie of some sort - I simply don't believe we have the draw (someone mentioned above that $ alone does not decide things for mega multi-millionaire's with young families with no according draw/tie to the midwest).  If you don't believe this, you are in DENIAL.  Look across ALL sports, and you will find this to be true.......We need....serious development focus for our top 7 minor league pitching prospects.  These SPs will matter much more to our prospects for 3-5 years than any trade or FA (in my opinion).

This makes sense to me. 

[The Wise One]

"He didnt want to play here."

This is, IMO, lamest of the lame excuses we hear/read about the Twins failures.

A player has the right to choose where they want to play in free agency. A report on Yahoo stated that Arizona was his first choice. I guess that is pretty lame of Bumgartner. Wheeler’s wife wanted Philli. That is real lame of her. Reality is lame

[Mike Sixel]

 

A player has the right to choose where they want to play in free agency. A report on Yahoo stated that Arizona was his first choice. I guess that is pretty lame of Bumgartner. Wheeler’s wife wanted Philli. That is real lame of her. Reality is lame

 

I believe Chief's point is that it seems unlikely that every high priced FA ever didn't want to be in MN. Also, Target and UHG and other companies attract top talent. It is the job of the FO to fix the Twins so that players and coaches and scouts and others want to come to the Twins. 

 

Or, maybe that wasn't his point, hard to say for sure.

[rdehring]

 

Via MLBTR:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/details-on-madison-bumgarners-agreement-with-the-diamondbacks.html

 

 

It seems like a $100 mil could have overcome horses. Or at least made the horses counter-offer.

That quote raises several questions, at least for me.

 

The comment $85,000,000 guaranteed was enough to get it done, although $15,000,000 of the money was deferred.  I take that to mean $15,000,000 of the $85,000,000 was deferred.  Yet, could that be in addition to the $85,000,000?  Doesn't seem like it, but?

 

The next word that caught my eye was 'guaranteed.'  So the $85,000,000 is guaranteed, thus, the base.  Are there incentives other than the norm?  If so how much?  He later commented that it wasn't quite the $100,000,000 five year deal his camp was hoping for, maybe with makeable incentives it is a lot closer than it seems on the face of it.  Guess we will never know.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Bumgarner really isn't very good. At least one reputable projection system has him on par with Lewis Thorpe.

 

There are emotional posters on here that apparently will feel better if the Twins do something dumb, because at least it's 'something.' That's not rational. Winning playoff games won't come from dumb moves, sorry to tell you.

I'd happily take the bet that Bumgarner would provide more value to this team over the next three years than Lewis Thorpe...

[nicksaviking]

 

I believe Chief's point is that it seems unlikely that every high priced FA ever didn't want to be in MN. Also, Target and UHG and other companies attract top talent. It is the job of the FO to fix the Twins so that players and coaches and scouts and others want to come to the Twins. 

 

Or, maybe that wasn't his point, hard to say for sure.

 

Location does seem to be either more of an issue with this year's crop of FA, or else this year's crop of FA are just more open about sharing that.

 

I kind of think the business analogy actually supports the reason why free agents are less receptive to coming here though. United Health, 3M, Thrivent, all of Minnesota's proud Fortune 500 companies are at the top of their industries; they're the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Phillies of their contemporaries. As far as status goes, the Twins are the TCF Bank, trying to lure top guys that the US Bank Yankees also want. That doesn't even take into account any kind of location adjustment.

[ewen21]

 

I believe Chief's point is that it seems unlikely that every high priced FA ever didn't want to be in MN. Also, Target and UHG and other companies attract top talent. It is the job of the FO to fix the Twins so that players and coaches and scouts and others want to come to the Twins. 

 

Or, maybe that wasn't his point, hard to say for sure.

No one said EVERY free agent pitcher doesn't want to pitch in Minnesota so he's writing a letter to nothing basically.  I think it has been stated and restated many times that Bumgarner didn't have an interest in Minnesota.  He clearly had his heart set on Arizona (among other places).  What are we supposed to do?  Offer him WHATEVER IT TAKES like people insisted we do with Darvish?

No man.  No.

 

The job these GMs were hired to do was use analytics to build a winning, cost-effective team.  They have done that.  Big name FA pitchers are historically not cost-effective in almost every single case.  Had we made some hay in the playoffs I think we are having a different conversation here.  This team soiled their pants in the playoffs yet again and seems content to call it a success.  That right there doesn't help a damn thing with regard to guys considering Minnesota as a destination.  We have a sad legacy of playing like chumps in the playoffs and that works against us.  It is embarrassing for me as a Twins fan and it should be.

 

(Now... do not go making that THE REASON why FAs don't favor Minnesota.  I am saying it is part of it, I am not saying THERE IS THE REASON so please pump the breaks on anything that suggests this.)

 

Not sure what the big deal is here.  This place has been analytics-friendly if ever a place was.  I thought it went a bit overboard for a while, as a matter of fact.  The irony here is I am upholding the core tenets of analytics.  Seems to me that doesn't mean a thing to you or a bunch others.  Maybe it never did with you and that is fine with me. The fact that this place has scores of people basically saying PAY THE STUPID TAX is interesting and refreshing, but at the same time it is based in emotion and futile.

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I agree, the blanket "he won't come here" is a banal and lame defense. Equally lame are assertions that if you throw the highest number and years up there, you always get your guy.

Always? No. A vast majority of the time? Yes.

 

How often are players turning down significantly more lucrative contract offers, especially in baseball where they aren't hitting FA until they're nearly 30?