MadBaum to the D-Backs

[Tomj14]

 

Why the HELL should the Twins go five years for this guy?  He's declined sharply.  He hardly throws that four seamer anymore and he isn't nearly the guy he was.   WHY WHY WHY do we give him five years?  Because he is "MadBum"??

 

Honestly, getting him is just paying for a name.  He isn't Madison Bumgarner anymore.

34 starts, 207 1/3 innings 203 K's in a bit of a down year.  How many of the current starters have ever done that? I will give you a hint, the same number of times you and me have done it.

[Tomj14]

 

The tax thing is over-blown.  It's never stopped the Cubs, White Sox or any CA team and they have higher taxes. 50% of your income is earned on the road.  It's hurt the Blue Jays at times, but that's a combination of VERY high taxes and exchange rates at times.

 

He wouldn't come here if our offer was equal to Arizona's. But if we'd offered 5/$100, he's probably a Twin.

How about 4 for 85 and no deferred, the Twins didn't want to go 5 years, then don't. If you are willing to pay Odo 18 million a year, why not 21 for Madbum?

[rdehring]

 

So many statements about the Twins "deciding" not to sign MadBum or trade for Kluber or Stroman or any other move people wanted to see. Do you guys realize that the Twins don't get to just say "We want Bum for 5 years 100 instead of your 5 years 85" and suddenly he's there. How many national reporters need to come out saying that he had no desire to play in MN before you guys believe it? He was never coming here unless the Twins added a 6th year and an insane amount of extra money. He's a human! He gets to pick where he signs!

 

I know this isn't the Kluber thread, but the Indians were never trading him in the division for the same return they got. It was widely reported the Jays and Mets were both asking for our top prospects. Maybe you were willing to do that, but the idea that the Twins could have just called any of those teams and said "no, we will give you Cave, an electric armed reliever, and an average middle infield prospect" and suddenly those teams had to send their pitcher here is ridiculous. The FO isn't just looking at guys online and buying what they want. Wake up and understand how this actually all works and quit the constant whining everytime things don't go the way you want.

Can I like this twice?

[terrydactyls]

For those would rather "spend that money elsewhere" where are you going to spend it? We have a current payroll of $100 million and can allegedly spend $130-140 million. There aren't many places left to spend it.

I'm willing to take some money if he only objective is to spend!!!

[Tomj14]

 

I'm willing to take some money if he only objective is to spend!!!

maybe the Twins are so smart they can continue to win the division and 100+ games with a 100 million dollar payroll and thus reduce the price of tickets.

[terrydactyls]

maybe the Twins are so smart they can continue to win the division and 100+ games with a 100 million dollar payroll and thus reduce the price of tickets.

"Reduce ticket prices". Best joke in this entire thread.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure how you're defining revenue level, but the idea that we can't compete with the White Sox and Tigers in FA is ridiculous. If what you're saying is true, why did we offer $100 to Darvish? Why did we offer $100 million to Wheeler? Can we play in FA or can't we?

 

The fact that Ervin Santana is still the biggest FA contract we've ever given is pretty pathetic.

Just to correct this point: Grandal is the biggest FA contract the White Sox have ever given out. It's a little bigger than Ervin's deal, but with inflation, the difference is negligible.

 

The White Sox have been a bit more aggressive that the Twins in the 21st century -- they've had more higher-payroll seasons, plus the big deal for Abreu coming out of Cuba, plus trades for Thome and Peavy and perhaps others. But until they actually land a Machado or Wheeler, they've generally played in the same FA territory as our club.

 

The Brewers are another one that gets mentioned -- they did sign Cain a couple years ago, and have a series of aggressive trades -- Sabathia, Greinke, and Yelich -- but they too have been pretty frugal in FA.

 

Especially in our current position, I'd like the Twins to demonstrate some targeted aggressiveness like these clubs. The most likely form of that will be via trade.

[Twodogs]

Hey, the Tigers and White Sox have played in the world series a helluva lot more recently that the Twins....

And it kinda looks like the white sox are striving to get there again, soon.

[mikelink45]

Imagine what Berrios would be worth on the open market.  Sign that extension - he improves every year and when the time comes he can choose where he wants to be like every FA this year.  If we are not going to sign the FAs, lets sign the guy that is in house.

[bird]

 

 I hear Jim needs more shoes and Bill has another crappy movie to make.

 

 

 

This is really great ammo for Phil Mackey.

[big dog]

 

 

 

He wouldn't come here if our offer was equal to Arizona's. But if we'd offered 5/$100, he's probably a Twin.

And you know this...how?

[big dog]

 

Just to correct this point: Grandal is the biggest FA contract the White Sox have ever given out. It's a little bigger than Ervin's deal, but with inflation, the difference is negligible.

 

The White Sox have been a bit more aggressive that the Twins in the 21st century -- they've had more higher-payroll seasons, plus the big deal for Abreu coming out of Cuba, plus trades for Thome and Peavy and perhaps others. But until they actually land a Machado or Wheeler, they've generally played in the same FA territory as our club.

 

The Brewers are another one that gets mentioned -- they did sign Cain a couple years ago, and have a series of aggressive trades -- Sabathia, Greinke, and Yelich -- but they too have been pretty frugal in FA.

 

Especially in our current position, I'd like the Twins to demonstrate some targeted aggressiveness like these clubs. The most likely form of that will be via trade.

Agreed, the White Sox have been a lot more aggressive, but as you point out they don't seem to get the player they want as often as they'd like (Machado, Wheeler to name two).  When you look at their "best" signings you get names like Jermaine Dye, Albert Belle, and Carlton Fisk.  AJ was a very good pickup, but he wasn't exactly a hot commodity at that time.  They did hit gold with Abreu but when they first got him they took a chance on someone with no ML experience, so not a traditional big-time free agent.  Grandal is a huge deal for them.  Hopefully it works out as well as Adam Dunn did.

 

Does anyone think Machado or Wheeler would have come to the White Sox if they had agreed to an "overpay"?  It could be true, I guess, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Bumgarner really isn't very good. At least one reputable projection system has him on par with Lewis Thorpe.

 

There are emotional posters on here that apparently will feel better if the Twins do something dumb, because at least it's 'something.' That's not rational. Winning playoff games won't come from dumb moves, sorry to tell you.

 

If it was so "dumb" then why the reports they are going after him hard, Twins among top 2 suitors, etc? Either they LIE or you are wrong.

 

They wanted him. Don't act as if they didn't. They however wanted a DEAL like they do with everything they do. We all know Madbum would likely not be any good in year 4 and 5 of that contract. WHO CARES we are paying for year 1 and 2 a guy to pair with Berrios in a playoff matchup.

[MMMordabito]

 

Imagine what Berrios would be worth on the open market.  Sign that extension - he improves every year and when the time comes he can choose where he wants to be like every FA this year.  If we are not going to sign the FAs, lets sign the guy that is in house.

 

Yep, just start with the Nola deal and then adjust until an agreement is inked.  

 

I'd rather overpay a bit on a 25 yo that has a track record with the team anyway.

 

Name - 2020 Age - bWAR last three years

 

Berrios - 26 - 9.1

Bumgarner - 30 - 8.0

Ryu - 33 - 8.5

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Pitching is getting very expensive. A Berrios extension would be a great place to start.

Do you think a high end pitcher is willing to take a discount deal to stay with a team that isn't willing to go all in and surround him with what it takes to be a champion?

 

Berrios once he gets to free agency if he continues the path he is on will far eclipse the kind of money Bumgarner just got paid here. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Does anyone think Machado or Wheeler would have come to the White Sox if they had agreed to an "overpay"?  It could be true, I guess, but I wouldn't bet on it.

A notable "overpay" and I think they would have had fair odds. The White Sox only bid maybe ~3% more than Philly, and Philly is considered a better team. Wheeler may have preferred Philly anyway, or had a bias against Chicago, but that bid wasn't much of a test. 10% and I think Wheeler has to consider it much more, and Chicago could have had him or at least upped the bidding from Philly.

 

And the White Sox ultimately under-bid on Machado, rather significantly -- $250 mil compared to $300 mil. I think an early $300 mil offer could have gotten him.

[AceWrigley]

The Hot Stove sure heated up on this topic. MadBum wanted to pitch in Arizona. He got an offer he liked well enough and chose to pitch where he wanted to be. Maybe this opens up the opportunity a little bit more to obtain Robbie Ray in a trade from the D-Backs. I know they've been working on a possible deal with one of the Marlins' young arms. I though Josh Lindblom might have been a good target. Not a hard thrower but great spin rates; seemed like the type of pitcher the Twins might try to capitalize on but he signed with the Brewers. Hang in there, we've got more off-season to go yet.

[jud6312]

 

Better add that Texas got Kluber.  I guess we can expect Ryu to be in the rotation - he is the only one of real value left.

 

I hear he has access to a community garden in Sherman Oaks that grows the best avocados. No chance he'll give that up to come here.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Why the HELL should the Twins go five years for this guy?  He's declined sharply.  He hardly throws that four seamer anymore and he isn't nearly the guy he was.   WHY WHY WHY do we give him five years?  Because he is "MadBum"??

 

Honestly, getting him is just paying for a name.  He isn't Madison Bumgarner anymore.

Then why IN on him? Why try? Why worry about it?

 

Shouldn't have even said they wanted him if he's that bad. 

 

So, going 4 was A OK, but going out to 5 is a disaster? If he is declining and our FO and analytics team feel as though he isn't worth having around, then there shouldn't be any reports that the Twins want him. That we are "IN" on him. That we are one of a handful of top suitors. Just say you are "OUT" and that you will look to other avenues to fill your pitching staff. 

[bird]

 

"He didnt want to play here."

This is, IMO, lamest of the lame excuses we hear/read about the Twins failures.

 

 

Can we at least acknowledge that it's not always an untrue statement? That there just might be infrequent times when a player tells his preferred destination to just get the number and the years up in the right territory and I'll ignore the rest?

 

I don't think we can say for certain, but the reports are that Bumgarner's clearing price involved location and horses. Although it's curious that LA is a short dirt bike ride away.

 

It's fair game to disagree with Falvey if he set a clearing price, in dollars, years, or both. Once again, we're getting reported hints, not not definitive answers from Falvey, that he wouldn't go five years. People can disagrre with that without acting like petulant children who didn't get the pony.    Not that YOU did that, because you're really really old.

 

I agree, the blanket "he won't come here" is a banal and lame defense. Equally lame are assertions that if you throw the highest number and years up there, you always get your guy.

[big dog]

 

A notable "overpay" and I think they would have had fair odds. The White Sox only bid maybe ~3% more than Philly, and Philly is considered a better team. Wheeler may have preferred Philly anyway, or had a bias against Chicago, but that bid wasn't much of a test. 10% and I think Wheeler has to consider it much more, and Chicago could have had him or at least upped the bidding from Philly.

 

And the White Sox ultimately under-bid on Machado, rather significantly -- $250 mil compared to $300 mil. I think an early $300 mil offer could have gotten him.

You are certainly entitled to think that, and you might be right.  But I personally doubt it.  Didn't Wheeler turn down higher offers?

 

This is all maddeningly hypothetical.  We need to get a top free agent into a lab, wire him up to a brain wave reader, and start throwing possible teams/deals around so we can get some real data about where the boundaries are for various teams.  

[rdehring]

 

And they shouldn't have went 5.

 

How much extra is madbum making by playing in AZ compared to if he had signed here for the same money? Just wondering how much of an impediment our high state taxes are.

Lots of reasons for him to prefer Arizona.  First, it sounds like he winters there and wants to spend time with his horse...strike 1.  Second, he is a national league pitcher who is both good at and likes to hit...strike 2.  Third, Although only 50% of his income is taxed at the home state rate, Minnesota taxes on half of $85,000,000 is a lot of money, many millions...strike 3.  

 

Am I anxious for the Twins to get at least one more experienced starter who is above average...you betcha.  Do I believe all the bashing going on here is merited...no.

[nicksaviking]

 

Then why IN on him? Why try? Why worry about it?

 

Shouldn't have even said they wanted him if he's that bad. 

 

So, going 4 was A OK, but going out to 5 is a disaster? If he is declining and our FO and analytics team feel as though he isn't worth having around, then there shouldn't be any reports that the Twins want him. That we are "IN" on him. That we are one of a handful of top suitors. Just say you are "OUT" and that you will look to other avenues to fill your pitching staff. 

 

Are you suggesting that the number of years doesn't matter? If AZ was his preferred destination the Twins should have just offered 6 because it would have made no more difference on their end as offering 4?

[scottz]

Sounds like the Twins need to put some resources into developing the very best WAGs that love Minnesota. It'll be a good old fashioned CIA-style honey trap. Pay for their college, and send multiples after each college prospect they are interested in.

 

Obviously, high school kids are off limits, but if the Twins draft a high school kid after he is 18, send multiples from the WAGs development program to the rookie league and/or low A ball towns.

 

Go Twins WAGs! Help us resolve our biggest problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You are certainly entitled to think that, and you might be right.  But I personally doubt it.  Didn't Wheeler turn down higher offers?

Yes, like I said, the White Sox bid more for Wheeler. But only about 3% more (they said "more than $120 mil", compared to Philly's $118 mil). That was the only higher offer. Make that 10% more (like $130 mil) and I think Chicago has a real shot, either to land the player or force Philly to counter.

 

Not to pick on Wheeler, but he has no kids, and from what I can tell, his fiancé is 5 years younger than him, and she's a part-time makeup artist who takes a lot of tropical beach trips. I can see him taking $3-4 mil less to go to a better team, but it's not at all clear to me that "staying near her family in New Jersey" would have been worth $12+ mil to them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sounds like the Twins need to put some resources into developing the very best WAGs that love Minnesota. It'll be a good old fashioned CIA-style honey trap. Pay for their college, and send multiples after each college prospect they are interested in.

 

Obviously, high school kids are off limits, but if the Twins draft a high school kid after he is 18, send multiples from the WAGs development program to the rookie league and/or low A ball towns.

 

Go Twins WAGs! Help us resolve our biggest problem.

How are the Twins supposed to compete for potential WAGs against teams from California, Florida, New York?

[scottz]

 

How are the Twins supposed to compete for potential WAGs against teams from California, Florida, New York?

Clearly, the Twins will need to put the most resources into this program, and certainly more than the resources put into WAG programs set up by other teams. It's the only way to produce a reliably strong baseball team that wants to play here.

[SwainZag]

 

If it was so "dumb" then why the reports they are going after him hard, Twins among top 2 suitors, etc? Either they LIE or you are wrong.

 

They wanted him. Don't act as if they didn't. They however wanted a DEAL like they do with everything they do. We all know Madbum would likely not be any good in year 4 and 5 of that contract. WHO CARES we are paying for year 1 and 2 a guy to pair with Berrios in a playoff matchup.

 

Why couldn't the report of the Twins going after him hard only involve 2-4 years?  The Twins could have very much been in play but didn't think the cost and risk was worth 5 years.  It doesn't mean they were lying, it simply means they had a max on dollars per year, years on the contract or both.

 

On your second point, I very much think that the FO cares what they are paying in year 4 and 5 of that contract.  It really seems they are trying to create a long term winning plan, not a let's try and blow it and go for it in a 2 year run.  They have a young core, a core of guys who if managed right could have sustained winning run in them.  

[Mike Sixel]

Why couldn't the report of the Twins going after him hard only involve 2-4 years? The Twins could have very much been in play but didn't think the cost and risk was worth 5 years. It doesn't mean they were lying, it simply means they had a max on dollars per year, years on the contract or both.

 

On your second point, I very much think that the FO cares what they are paying in year 4 and 5 of that contract. It really seems they are trying to create a long term winning plan, not a let's try and blow it and go for it in a 2 year run. They have a young core, a core of guys who if managed right could have sustained winning run in them.

Pretty sure his point was that those saying Bumgarner isn't good begs the question why the Twins were pursuing him then....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Lots of reasons for him to prefer Arizona.  First, it sounds like he winters there and wants to spend time with his horse...strike 1.  Second, he is a national league pitcher who is both good at and likes to hit...strike 2.  Third, Although only 50% of his income is taxed at the home state rate, Minnesota taxes on half of $85,000,000 is a lot of money, many millions...strike 3.  

1. He still get to winter wherever he wants, regardless of where he signs. Arizona does have the benefit of being his spring training site though too, so that's an extra ~40 days, albeit working days. Otherwise, the difference is usually more like ~90 days, mostly working days, spread over the 6 month regular season (mostly summer, non-school months, where children are a consideration).

 

3. I doubt taxes are ever much of a consideration with these deals. If the decision isn't made on raw dollars, then it's the factors in #1 or which team is better / provides the better opportunity.

 

If you're talking about matching 5/85 or nominally beating it (5/85 with nothing deferred, or 5/90?), then I agree, it probably wouldn't have made much difference. But I think significantly beating it (5/100?) would probably give most players pause, even after considering the non-monetary factors above, and would give you fair odds to either land the player or force the other team to counter-offer. The examples of players turning down significantly more money are few and far between.