MadBaum to the D-Backs

[Otto von Ballpark]

That quote raises several questions, at least for me.

 

The comment $85,000,000 guaranteed was enough to get it done, although $15,000,000 of the money was deferred. I take that to mean $15,000,000 of the $85,000,000 was deferred. Yet, could that be in addition to the $85,000,000? Doesn't seem like it, but?

 

The next word that caught my eye was 'guaranteed.' So the $85,000,000 is guaranteed, thus, the base. Are there incentives other than the norm? If so how much? He later commented that it wasn't quite the $100,000,000 five year deal his camp was hoping for, maybe with makeable incentives it is a lot closer than it seems on the face of it. Guess we will never know.

Deferred is included in the $85 mil. So he'll get $70 mil during the contract term, and $15 mil after.

 

"Guaranteed" is standard contract parlance and doesn't imply anything about incentives. Usually if there are major incentives (and I'd call $15 mil major in this deal, especially if they are attainable like starts/innings), they would be noted in the reporting by now.

 

Cot's Contracts gets a lot of detail and I suspect we'll see more there eventually.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So Wheeler signed to be close to his future in-laws, and Bumgarner signed to be close to his horses... there's a joke to be made in there somewhere!

[h2oface]

 

Why couldn't the report of the Twins going after him hard only involve 2-4 years?  The Twins could have very much been in play but didn't think the cost and risk was worth 5 years.  It doesn't mean they were lying, it simply means they had a max on dollars per year, years on the contract or both.

 

On your second point, I very much think that the FO cares what they are paying in year 4 and 5 of that contract.  It really seems they are trying to create a long term winning plan, not a let's try and blow it and go for it in a 2 year run.  They have a young core, a core of guys who if managed right could have sustained winning run in them.  

 

I would take a one and done championship, myself. Just one. I'm not greedy. And 2 years in a row? Absolutely. Hell, they are prone to blowing it even when they are trying. But to go for a sustained winning run, when you haven't won a single playoff game - to the tune of 16 games in a row over a 16 year span including the last three with this core and pitching (the same pitching that we basically still have with no improvments from last year) - planning on an extended run, especially in these fickle free agent times, is just foolish in my opinion. Bank on one, and then go from there. 

[h2oface]

 

Kimbrel should be a good example why.  Everyone predicted his control to bounce back and the velocity drop wasn't a big deal.  Yes, he didn't pitch a full season but his control got worse and his velocity dipped once again.  The Cubs are not only paying him $16M this season, but for the next one as well.  The Twins didn't want to go a guaranteed 3rd year for that price and of right now it's looking pretty smart...and it seems like Cubs might think so as well as they have been reportedly strung out on money.  I'm sure they would like to have that $16M to add to that team instead of having Kimbrel on the their roster right now.

 

Kimbrel just had a case of Lance Lynn disease. He should be just fine this year.

[Riverbrian]

 

So Wheeler signed to be close to his future in-laws, and Bumgarner signed to be close to his horses... there's a joke to be made in there somewhere!

 

I'll try

 

Madison Bumgarner's horse is nearing the end of a long journey across the Arizona.desert and is near death when Zach Wheeler's future mother-in-law sees the horse and immediately recognizes the dire condition. She quickly leads the horse to a large bucket full of water and the horse says... "You expect me to drink this ****"? 

 

or if you shake off your parameters you can go with the obvious. 

 

You can lead a horse to Minnesota but you can't make him sign a contract. 

 

Thank You... Thank You Very much. 

 

Copyright: Riverbrian

[bird]

 

Always? No. A vast majority of the time? Yes.

 

How often are players turning down significantly more lucrative contract offers, especially in baseball where they aren't hitting FA until they're nearly 30? 

 

 

Agreed, a majority of the time, as surveys and agents tell us, players tend to follow the money.

 

We have two cases here, in Wheeler and now in Bumgarner, where we see that other important factors entered into their decisions. We do not know how prominently. Therefore, it is not possible to argue with any credibility that the player could or could not be enticed to change their mind on the basis of more money.

 

So let's just dispense with blanket statements. Let's stop opining arrogantly that we know the answer to this question. Let's stop with the blaming when we don't know the truth. Let's not offer up excuses when we don't know the truth.

 

In my opinion, if you have a strong opinion about why Wheeler or Bumgarner signed elsewhere, you're maybe a little too keen on your own "understanding" of the situation.

[SwainZag]

 

I would take a one and done championship, myself. Just one. I'm not greedy. And 2 years in a row? Absolutely. Hell, they are prone to blowing it even when they are trying. But to go for a sustained winning run, when you haven't won a single playoff game - to the tune of 16 games in a row over a 16 year span including the last three with this core and pitching (the same pitching that we basically still have with no improvments from last year) - planning on an extended run, especially in these fickle free agent times, is just foolish in my opinion. Bank on one, and then go from there. 

 

I didn't meant certainly winning, just going balls to the wall going for it.  I'm sure everyone here would trade 1 guaranteed championship over a sustained winning run, the problem is...you can't guarantee that. How many teams load up for one season, win it all, then don't compete?

 

I think a lot of fans here would want to see them throw $285M at Dolandson, Wheeler and Madbum this offseason and take a shot.  Could it work?  Sure.  Could they still get swept out of the first round?  Sure.  And in 2-3 season when players like Berrios, Buxton, Sano are not retained becuase your aging free agent signings take up 70% of the payroll....what then?  Well we went for it in 2020, so this is OK?  

 

In terms of the long playoff losing streak, fans need to see past that.  None of the players, coaches, front office personnel were here for any of it other than the last 4 games.  What happened to the Twins in 2004 has absolutely zero barring on Derek Falvey and Jose Berrios.  

[SwainZag]

 

Kimbrel just had a case of Lance Lynn disease. He should be just fine this year.

 

That's a pure speculation guess.  And what is just fine?  If you paid $16M as a reliever you better be among the best in baseball.  There is a chance he rebounds, but it's not a certainty.  

[drivlikejehu]

 

If you're talking about matching 5/85 or nominally beating it (5/85 with nothing deferred, or 5/90?), then I agree, it probably wouldn't have made much difference. But I think significantly beating it (5/100?) would probably give most players pause, even after considering the non-monetary factors above, and would give you fair odds to either land the player or force the other team to counter-offer. The examples of players turning down significantly more money are few and far between.

 

The simple fact of the matter is that the Twins will not be successful by making horrific deals. If the most any team thinks Bumgarner is actually worth is $85 million, then paying way more than that is a losing strategy. 

 

There is just no way that the Twins can take advantage of free agency by paying significantly more per marginal win than the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. The math doesn't work. The big market clubs have too much money for them to be overcome in that manner. 

 

The Twins can *only* win by paying less per win than the big market teams. It's a straightforward, unalterable reality that will never, ever change. There's no point in rooting for the Twins if you can't accept it.

 

The Twins certainly can afford to pay market rates for some free agents, so long as the homegrown/traded for part of the roster is sufficiently cheap. But even then, the free agents need to provide a solid return on investment, or it's a losing move. Handing out $100 million to decent 3rd starters is just not a worthwhile decision, under any serious analysis. It only makes sense as mediocre message board chatter, not in the real world.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The simple fact of the matter is that the Twins will not be successful by making horrific deals. If the most any team thinks Bumgarner is actually worth is $85 million, then paying way more than that is a losing strategy. 

 

There is just no way that the Twins can take advantage of free agency by paying significantly more per marginal win than the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. The math doesn't work. The big market clubs have too much money for them to be overcome in that manner. 

 

The Twins can *only* win by paying less per win than the big market teams. It's a straightforward, unalterable reality that will never, ever change. There's no point in rooting for the Twins if you can't accept it.

 

The Twins certainly can afford to pay market rates for some free agents, so long as the homegrown/traded for part of the roster is sufficiently cheap. But even then, the free agents need to provide a solid return on investment, or it's a losing move. Handing out $100 million to decent 3rd starters is just not a worthwhile decision, under any serious analysis. It only makes sense as mediocre message board chatter, not in the real world.

 

My post didn't say anything about what the Twins *should* have offered, or what Bumgarner is worth. It was about what it would have hypothetically taken to beat a 5/85 offer.

 

You shouldn't belittle any posts as "mediocre message board" chatter at all, much less when they're not even talking about the same subject as you.

[Dave Overlund]

 

I didn't say "no one wants to play here" I said Bumgarner and Wheeler didn't want to play here. Are you trying to be the Brewers and the White Sox? I mean they aren't exactly the toast of the league. The idea that they're "flushing" 2020 because they aren't throwing out bad contracts doesn't make any sense to me. If they gave MadBum 5 years and 100 mil how do you think the next 5 years go? What percent chance do you give them for getting past the Yanks this year. You know, the team that swept them and now signed the best pitcher on the planet. Does MadBum really get us passed them now? I say no. So now the Twins would still not win the WS in 2020, but since they paid him that money they also can't keep the core of the team into the future and are rebuilding again in 2024. So you would prefer they "go for it this year" by throwing out what the league clearly feels is a bad contract in order to feel like they're really trying, but then send us back into the unwatchable years we just got out of?

Yes, I would like to be the Brewers, actually. Trade for Sabathia in 2008... Trade for Yelich. Sign Lorenzo Cain. Sign Grandal. Make some moves to try to actually win the World Series. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, I would like to be the Brewers, actually. Trade for Sabathia in 2008... Trade for Yelich. Sign Lorenzo Cain. Sign Grandal. Make some moves to try to actually win the World Series. 

The Brewers signing Grandal was just a one-year deal -- I'd say it's comparable to a few deals the Twins have made the past few years. They've been a bit bolder so far at the "higher end" of FA with Cain, but for the most part, they've played in the same conservative FA waters as the Twins.

 

The Brewers have definitely been bolder in trades, though.

[Dave Overlund]

 

The Brewers signing Grandal was just a one-year deal -- I'd say it's comparable to a few deals the Twins have made the past few years. They've been a bit bolder so far at the "higher end" of FA with Cain, but for the most part, they've played in the same conservative FA waters as the Twins.

 

The Brewers have definitely been bolder in trades, though.

I'd be fine with the Twins never spending a cent in FA and making bold trades. My problem at the moment is that we have seen neither. I would really, really, love to be proven wrong this offseason. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd be fine with the Twins never spending a cent in FA and making bold trades. My problem at the moment is that we have seen neither. I would really, really, love to be proven wrong this offseason. 

I'm right there with you, and the Brewers aren't a bad example for that.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Signing one starter does not "blow up future budgets". Yes you do have to pick your windows and go for it. The Rays are a fun franchise. So are the A's. They've also won zero World Series in the last 25 years.

 

Umm, not for nothing, but your last sentence is also true of the Dodgers.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Agreed, a majority of the time, as surveys and agents tell us, players tend to follow the money.

 

We have two cases here, in Wheeler and now in Bumgarner, where we see that other important factors entered into their decisions. We do not know how prominently. Therefore, it is not possible to argue with any credibility that the player could or could not be enticed to change their mind on the basis of more money.

 

So let's just dispense with blanket statements. Let's stop opining arrogantly that we know the answer to this question. Let's stop with the blaming when we don't know the truth. Let's not offer up excuses when we don't know the truth.

 

In my opinion, if you have a strong opinion about why Wheeler or Bumgarner signed elsewhere, you're maybe a little too keen on your own "understanding" of the situation.

Eh, I think there is enough evidence on the side of history to suggest that either could've been had for the right price. If we're setting the bar so high to where we need to know details down to the minutiae involving transactions then TD might as well fold now. We know what numbers FAs accept, and we hear reported offers other teams in contention make. If players were turning down less lucrative deals with any sort of frequency I'd also guess that union reps would be making waves. 

 

As for how this relates to the Twins, I said it in another thread, but show me the FA contract this team has tendered, which beats all other offers by a significant amount, and the FA that turns it down, and then we can have a discussion about geography. Up to this point it's been the Twins underbidding, yet we're force fed the "players don't want to come here," mantra and if you push back against it you're a "moron," according to local media, or "narrow-minded," according to writers on this site. 

[chpettit19]

 

Yes, I would like to be the Brewers, actually. Trade for Sabathia in 2008... Trade for Yelich. Sign Lorenzo Cain. Sign Grandal. Make some moves to try to actually win the World Series. 

How many World Series have those moves gotten the Brewers to let alone how many have they won? Lorenzo Cain's deal is terrible and limiting their ability to make moves. They signed Grandal to a 1 year deal which is exactly the kind of move the Twins have been trying to do and you complain about. The Yelich trade has been fantastic, but he was a 15-20 HR guy before that trade and nobody expected him to suddenly be a 40 HR guy. The Sabathia trade got them a first round playoff exit. You know, like the Twins always have. So basically you want the Twins to have the same results, but get there in a different way and raise their risk going 80-82, 77-85, 96-66, 83-79, 74-88, 82-80, 68-94, 73-89 in the next 8 seasons. The Sabathia trade was so great and got them a 3-1 first round exit followed by 1 playoff appearance in the next 8 seasons while only finishing above 3rd place in their own division that 1 time in 8 years. 

 

You just want splashy moves for guys whos names you know cuz it makes you feel like they have a better chance of winning in 1 specific season. And that's fine. But don't pretend the Brewers are anymore likely to win a World Series than the Twins. They have one of the 5 best players on the planet on a super team friendly deal and are still no better than the Twins.

[SwainZag]

 

Eh, I think there is enough evidence on the side of history to suggest that either could've been had for the right price. If we're setting the bar so high to where we need to know details down to the minutiae involving transactions then TD might as well fold now. We know what numbers FAs accept, and we hear reported offers other teams in contention make. If players were turning down less lucrative deals with any sort of frequency I'd also guess that union reps would be making waves. 

 

As for how this relates to the Twins, I said it in another thread, but show me the FA contract this team has tendered, which beats all other offers by a significant amount, and the FA that turns it down, and then we can have a discussion about geography. Up to this point it's been the Twins underbidding, yet we're force fed the "players don't want to come here," mantra and if you push back against it you're a "moron," according to local media, or "narrow-minded," according to writers on this site. 

 

 

To be perfectly honest, I think this site pushes a lot of the "players don't want to come here" agenda.....at least lately.  Wheeler stated he wanted to be on the East Coast and word came out Madbum loved Arizona, this after knowing he has been an NL pitcher his whole career and he loves to bat. There was reports that Ohtani wanted to be on one of the coasts, which makes sense as the Asian communities are a lot stronger. LaVelle posted that Ryu didn't want to come to Minnesota and was quickly corrected by a Korean beat writer that there was no truth to that.

 

How many free agents have singled out not coming to Minnesota?  Wheeler stated he wanted to be on the East Coast, and the narrative here comes out that he hates Minnesota and would never come here.  It really seems that players boycotting Minnesota for whatever reason has just turned into a big joke with not much substance.

[nicksaviking]

 

How many free agents have singled out not coming to Minnesota?  Wheeler stated he wanted to be on the East Coast, and the narrative here comes out that he hates Minnesota and would never come here.  It really seems that players boycotting Minnesota for whatever reason has just turned into a big joke with not much substance.

 

I'd guess there are some players every year who have strong preferences, but this year might just have more than normal. The Wheeler news seemed to come out of the blue but there were rumblings about preferred destinations for Bumgarner and Ryu prior to the off season.

 

In Bumgarner's case they seemed to have the right latitude, though the wrong end of the country.

 

Also, as much as I don't like it for the Twins, I have a hard time finding fault with foreign born players wanting to go to cities where communication and culture are more familiar and accessible. 

[The Wise One]

I believe Chief's point is that it seems unlikely that every high priced FA ever didn't want to be in MN. Also, Target and UHG and other companies attract top talent. It is the job of the FO to fix the Twins so that players and coaches and scouts and others want to come to the Twins. 

 

Or, maybe that wasn't his point, hard to say for sure.

Perhaps it is time to give up crying over what Terry Ryan did or did not do. As of now the Twins current front office went after 3 pitchers. Being outbid by the Cubs was not a bad thing. As their player costs escalate they are now looking for salary relief. The other two players had stated preferences. The teams met the demands. There still is a finite number for the Diamondbacks for payroll. They would not have traded Greinke for lottery ticks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Perhaps it is time to give up crying over what Terry Ryan did or did not do. As of now the Twins current front office went after 3 pitchers. Being outbid by the Cubs was not a bad thing. As their player costs escalate they are now looking for salary relief. The other two players had stated preferences. The teams met the demands. There still is a finite number for the Diamondbacks for payroll. They would not have traded Greinke for lottery ticks.

 

In fairness.....the "didn't want to come here" statement has been made for more than three years.....which is one reason it seems tired. It can't be true for every top FA, there must be other reasons also in play......

 

also, that's why I said it is the FO's job to fix this. Not that they broke it, but it is their job to fix it.

[nicksaviking]

 

In fairness.....the "didn't want to come here" statement has been made for more than three years.....which is one reason it seems tired.

 

What if it's not so much "didn't want to come here" as it is "I'd really like to go there"? Which frankly, sounds more accurate from the stuff that's coming out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What if it's not so much "didn't want to come here" as it is "really wanted to go there"? Which frankly, sounds more accurate from the stuff that's coming out.

 

Again, fine, but it can't be every high priced FA ever.....that's the point. That that is not the main reason there are zero high priced FAs here since Jack Morris.

[twinsnorth49]

I'm trying to be upset about this........but I just can't. 

 

 

It's not worth getting that upset about, I mean really. 

[twinsnorth49]

Playing in Minneapolis for 15m more wasn't as important as what he and his family wanted by going to Arizona. That's not all that complicated. 

 

Whether that was the reason for every other FA not to come or not is irrelevant. It's pretty obvious it was the reason in this case. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Again, fine, but it can't be every high priced FA ever.....that's the point. That that is not the main reason there are zero high priced FAs here since Jack Morris.

 

I guess I'm not sure which players you're specifically referencing when you say high priced players. I mean (blah) Nolasco, Santana, Lynn and Cruz weren't really in a different class than the guys currently left on the market. They're pricier now because of inflation or market correction, but they were similarly ranked as free agent finds.

 

But if you're actually asking for the main reason top free agents aren't here, well obviously this team isn't going to get the Coles/Strasburgs/Harpers/Machados unless they're willing to commit to putting 25-30% of their payroll towards one player. Obviously that's going to be more of an issue when league payrolls go from the more owner-friendly collusion-happy peanuts they were paying players when Morris played to 80-220M payrolls now. I mean there shouldn't be a professional league that allows that kind of payroll stratification, but that's where the MLB is.

[Twins33]

Again, fine, but it can't be every high priced FA ever.....that's the point. That that is not the main reason there are zero high priced FAs here since Jack Morris.

I agree that it can’t be everyone, but when have the Twins gone after high priced free agents period? I can’t think of one prior to this current front office. Darvish was the first.

 

Now you can say that TR kept things close to the vest, but word NEVER got out about TR going after a top FA. Not even once that I recall. I’m guessing because he never went after them at all.

 

I don’t think this “no one wants to come here” applies to the 90s and 2000s because I don’t think the Twins even tried for those players. Matt Holliday? Nope. Cliff Lee? Nope. Adrian Beltré? Nope. John Lackey? Nope. Mark Teixeira? Nope. Sabathia? Nope. A-Rod? Nope. And on and on. The Twins were never in on anyone above a Nolasco level prior to this front office. To me, that was the issue back then...not even trying.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Playing in Minneapolis for 15m more wasn't as important as what he and his family wanted by going to Arizona. That's not all that complicated.

 

Whether that was the reason for every other FA not to come or not is irrelevant. It's pretty obvious it was the reason in this case.

How is it obvious? The Twins didn't offer $15 mil more. The Twins didn't even offer the same as Arizona.

 

As far as I know, Bumgarner took the top dollar offer, and Wheeler took an offer from the better team within 2-3% of the top offer. Neither signing offers much evidence on non-monetary, "non-baseball" factors.

[h2oface]

 

That's a pure speculation guess.  And what is just fine?  If you paid $16M as a reliever you better be among the best in baseball.  There is a chance he rebounds, but it's not a certainty.  

 

My jokes don't always hit everyone's spot. Case in point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree that it can’t be everyone, but when have the Twins gone after high priced free agents period? I can’t think of one prior to this current front office. Darvish was the first.

Now you can say that TR kept things close to the vest, but word NEVER got out about TR going after a top FA. Not even once that I recall. I’m guessing because he never went after them at all.

I don’t think this “no one wants to come here” applies to the 90s and 2000s because I don’t think the Twins even tried for those players. Matt Holliday? Nope. Cliff Lee? Nope. Adrian Beltré? Nope. John Lackey? Nope. Mark Teixeira? Nope. Sabathia? Nope. A-Rod? Nope. And on and on. The Twins were never in on anyone above a Nolasco level prior to this front office. To me, that was the issue back then...not even trying.

 

That's kind of my point......they never really tried before.