Article: Believe in Byron Buxton

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think we can all agree that any discussion of "floor" goes out the window when you're talking about seasons utterly demolished by injuries. I recognize that Buxton's style of play makes him more injury-prone than others but I don't expect to see him play 28 MLB games in a season often.

 

 

 

Consider his play before the injuries was poor, I'm not so certain you can simply blame it on them. I think Twins fans shouldn't give up on the guy, but I think there's very real reason for concern. He's shown in 3 years that he cannot hit MLB pitching with any kind of consistency minus a 2 month window in 2017. I know we all want to see the 2nd half of 2017 Byron. That would be huge for this team.

 

But committing 50M? I'm not so certain.

Planning on him for 2019? I'm even less certain. 

[Riverbrian]

I agree with the dissenting opinions. His floor? We are looking at it right now. It can't get any lower and I see absolutely no reason to extend him right now.

 

I have no way of knowing without his medical charts or a medical degree but in my naive way... I believe that his issues are not medical, they are pitch recognition, plate discipline and trying to hit home runs related. 

 

However... the talent is undeniable and those issues that I believe he has are also light switch type issues. If he stops swinging at crap, puts more balls in play, I believe he can become a superstar in seconds. 

 

There is no way I'm trading or giving up on him and I believe that Aaron Hicks is an apt example of why you don't trade him. Buxton will either live with us or die with us but the ball is in his court. If he wants the big pay day in the 3 years... he will get that pay day because of his performance with the Minnesota Twins and if he has to fix his issues to earn the big pay day, that's going to be up to him coupled with every ounce of support the organization can provide through their systems. 

 

Help him find that light switch.I'm not trading him, I'm not cutting him and I'm not paying him yet either. The same goes for Sano. 

 

 

[adorduan]

 

I think we can all agree that any discussion of "floor" goes out the window when you're talking about seasons utterly demolished by injuries. I recognize that Buxton's style of play makes him more injury-prone than others but I don't expect to see him play 28 MLB games in a season often.

 

 

I laid out a vision in the blueprint linked in the article. Basically it calls for aggressive early raises, while the Twins have financial flexibility, and then reasonable salaries on the back end. 

I guess I'd be OK with that.  Twins wasted close to that much on Ricky Nolasco, without the potential upside.

 

This is off subject a little bit, but I wonder with technology as it is today, if there could be a way to test/improve pitch recognition.  Say with high speed cameras and some sort of device held in the hand,  have the player stand in the batters box, no bat or anything, and just try to recognize the pitch. That way they are not worrying about any swing mechanics or anything like that, just pitch recognition. Have multiple buttons for FB CB CH SL  and have the device synched to the cameras to see how quickly and accurately the player distinguishes the pitch.  Maybe it could pick up that one particular pitch gives them problems or all non FB pitches, or whatever. Just thinking out loud, probably not workable or maybe they have some variation of this already. probably just a another dumb idea by me.

[KGB]

 

Buxton's 2018 performance would be career ending for 95% of baseball players.  We have to keep that in perspective.

 

I still believe he can be a good player, but another year like this one and he's done. Another below average year and it's time to adjust our expectations.

I believe he still has another option year, so you can still leave him in AAA this year if he doesn't show anything this spring.  Even if he is a .150 to .200 hitter after this year, his defense and speed would still be valuable as a 4th outfielder and would buy you time to see if he develops.  So I would hate to see the Twins just lose him because I don't see any way you would get him through waivers.

 

But I would rather risk having him turn into a star and you had to pay him an additional $50 million, than giving him $50 million now and hoping he turns into a star.

[AceWrigley]

Byron Buxton: Bunting for doubles. Heck, he probable reaches first before anybody even touches the ball. I don't recall seeing anybody as fast as Byron; maybe Rickey Henderson.

[TheLeviathan]

I haven't given up, I'm also not ready to invest long-term.

 

I need to see if this Brittle Buxton continues.  And people are right to point out that his floor is not a major league player.  We've seen almost 1000 ABs at this point and he hasn't been a major leaguer for all but a hundred or two of them.

 

I get being optimistic and wanting to buy low, but I don't get spinning the downside.   It's been dire and injuries are only part of that.

Edited November 9, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Tomj14]

 

He tied for the 10th best WAR among AL hitters this year, and led a team that won 100 games. 

Not on Baseball Reference, but going on that, Isn't Buxton a superstar?

According to Baseball Reference Buxton's 2017 is higher than Hicks 2018.

 

[DocBauer]

OW!!

 

That was the salt being rubbed again in the wound that was giving up on Hicks too soon.

 

Big believer in Buxton and believe we will see a different player this season. Couldn't possibly repeat the same injury history could he?

 

Now, whether he breaks out to star status in 2019 I cant say. But enough contact to just hit .250, and not create air conditioning with his bat, with his speed and natural strength makes him very dangerous.

 

I understand the idea of an extension. Just not sure I can pull the trigger on the idea until I see something in 2019.

[mlhouse]

 

He went to the Yanks in 2016 and was terrible, in 2017 he played all of 88 games, last year he managed to play 137 and was really, really good. But I am not ready to call him a super star.

And lets be honest most wanted him gone in 2015 and if he would have played the same for the Twins 2016 as he did the Yanks, we would have been screaming for him to be gone.

 

The other question is would Hicks have developed into anything close to a decent player in Minnesota?

 

I know people that are friends with Ron Gardenhire and he actually has (or had) a place that is pretty close to my house on Fort Myers Beach, and perhaps in some ways he was an ok manager.  

But for the Minnesota Twins of 2011- 2014, he was the worst possible manager for the team to have.  A crabby guy who did not put up with any mistakes young players made who wuld rather play an old mediocrity that work with phenomenal athletes with upside like Aaron Hicks.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

They sent him down to get an extra year of service time, not for arbitration reasons.

That says they do believe in his potential. Otherwise, why would they want that extra year?

Buxton is super 2, not arb 1, I get it. The point is that extra year came at the cost of trust. Money doesn’t fix trust.

[Major League Ready]

 

You're ignoring that players are no longer doing this.......they just aren't. You can project how you'd feel all you want, but just look at the last three or four years. 

 

30/31 and older is now prime? On a site where people say all the time NOT to sign guys into their mid-30s, now it is a good idea? I'm confused by that sentence. In a league that is getting younger and younger? I don't see that.

 

I would normally agree, Mike. However, most of the players receiving extension offers are players with a higher probability of success. Buxton is a bit of a unique case. I think most of us believe he can still be a superstar but there is a also a pretty significant chance he is a 4th outfielder. It's an unusually uncertain case with a wide differential between floor and ceiling. Turning down $40 or 50M would be quite gutsy as of today. It would be an extremely aggressive play on the Twins part.

[Mr. Brooks]

Buxton is super 2, not arb 1, I get it. The point is that extra year came at the cost of trust. Money doesn’t fix trust.

Maybe, maybe not.

It was a business decision.

Plenty of people are capable of understanding business decisions are not personal. Others take it personally and never get over it.

I don't think either one of us knows Buxton enough to know which one he is.

[Nine of twelve]

Regarding Buxton and injuries: Paul Molitor was injured frequently early in his career. Once he got past those years and played regularly he flourished. I can see the same happening with Buxton. I'm not saying extend him now, but I am saying the time will come to extend him, and soon.

[BJames]

"I thought that was fast until I saw how quickly a large contingent of Twins fans somehow turned on the franchise's most vital asset."  Stop drinking the CoolAid!!!  No one has given up on Buxton, Buxton has been terrible.  Kepler has been disappointing as well.  Buxton has a .230 AVG and OPS of .672 and bats 9th in the order.  Kepler, just as disappointing with .233 AVG and OPS .733.  In the same time Rosario has .280 AVG and OPS of 784.  These are the number that they have put up.  One more thing, I was a Vargas fan too, not that Vargas was great, but his numbers are better than Buxton or Kepler's.  Plus the F.O. went out and signed Morrison, over Vargas, how did that turn out.  Why some guys get a pass while others get passed up???  At the end of the day Cave had better numbers then Buxton or Kepler.  At some point the talent has to show up and the time is passing quickly.  Also, trade Sano ASAP!!!!  For pitching. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I am not sure the twins exactly gave up on Hicks. They traded him for a guy they thought was a starting catcher. That's very different than giving up on a guy.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I am not sure the twins exactly gave up on Hicks. They traded him for a guy they thought was a starting catcher. That's very different than giving up on a guy.

 

Right and it's worth saying again - no one here wants to give up on Buxton either.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Not on Baseball Reference, but going on that, Isn't Buxton a superstar?

According to Baseball Reference Buxton's 2017 is higher than Hicks 2018.

I usually go by the WAR calculation on FanGraphs, but your mileage may vary. And with your second remark, I think you might be inadvertently making my point for me.

 

I need to see if this Brittle Buxton continues.  And people are right to point out that his floor is not a major league player.  We've seen almost 1000 ABs at this point and he hasn't been a major leaguer for all but a hundred or two of them.

And then he was one of the best players in the league. Through ups and downs, it all amounts to 4.6 WAR accrued before the age of 25 (or 6.9) if you prefer BR's version. That's a rare feat in Twins history. 

 

I don't mean to keep falling back on WAR as some sort of be-all, end-all because it has its flaws, but I feel like the immense value of Buxton's defense and base running continually gets lost in this discussion. I know it's easy to get caught up in the ugliness of his lows at the plate but Buck has been a net positive contributor, easily. And he was on a clear upward trajectory until this train wreck of a year. 

 

This is a resilient dude with all the talent in the world and a good heart. That's someone you bet on. 

[TheLeviathan]

Buxton's defense does not matter if he can't crack a .600 OPS.  So citing the WAR stat is misleading in this conversation.

 

No one will deny he's an unbelievable defender.  Bringing up WAR only matters if you'd march him out to CF with a .600 OPS (sometimes lower).  So....would you?

 

(And please.....600/650 - that's what we're talking here.  The vast majority of months Byron Buxton has been a Twin he has spent them with an OPS well below .700)

Edited November 10, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Nick Nelson]

 

Buxton's defense does not matter if he can't crack a .600 OPS.  So citing the WAR stat is misleading in this conversation.

 

No one will deny he's an unbelievable defender.  Bringing up WAR only matters if you'd march him out to CF with a .600 OPS (sometimes lower).  So....would you?

 

(And please.....600/650 - that's what we're talking here.  The vast majority of months Byron Buxton has been a Twin he has spent them with an OPS well below .700)

I don't think arbitrarily breaking his entire performance up into equally weighted "months" tells us much. I do know this much: He had an OPS above 700 four out of six months last year, including an .896 OPS over the last three. He showed continual, progressive improvement to the point where he was MVP-caliber the last stretch of the year. 

 

The evidence I'm seeing suggests that Buxton is a rhythm player who never got into a rhythm this year because he was constantly hurt. By the end in Triple-A he finally had but it was too late. 

 

The idea that we should suddenly expect Buxton to be a baseline sub-600 OPS guy seems crazy to me. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't think arbitrarily breaking his entire performance up into equally weighted "months" tells us much. I do know this much: He had an OPS above 700 four out of six months last year, including an .896 OPS over the last three. He showed continual, progressive improvement to the point where he was MVP-caliber the last stretch of the year. 

 

The evidence I'm seeing suggests that Buxton is a rhythm player who never got into a rhythm this year because he was constantly hurt. By the end in Triple-A he finally had but it was too late. 

 

The idea that we should suddenly expect Buxton to be a baseline sub-600 OPS guy seems crazy to me. 

 

I disagree that he has shown "continual" improvement.  He was terrible pretty much all of 2016 until September, then came into 2017 with much the same hype he did this year and rewarded that hype with OPS totals of .433, .701, and .524.  Then, yes, he had a great July and August before coming down a bit for September.  Then he was absolutely awful in ST and the first few weeks of this season and everyone is in a rush to put it 100% on injuries.

 

That is neither continual nor progressive.  At best it's intermittent.  

 

I'm not giving up on Buxton, I still think he can be an impact player. But he might also be incapable of being a starting caliber player because he either can't stay healthy or can't hit enough to justify regular at-bats.  Or both.  That is a very real floor and we know that because we've already seen A LOT of it first hand.

 

I can see the rationale behind locking him up, but it'd be nice if we toned down the lipstick on the pig.  The downside is very real.

Edited November 10, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Blackjack]

I haven't given up on Buxton but I'm not betting the farm on him either. His style of play and self induced injuries doesn't allow him to get any continuity, hes constantly trying to figure it out. 

[Jham]

4 pages and not 1 poster said they wanted to give up on Buxton. He's never been the site thing his minor league stats implied. Shops still had concerns about the setting and miss to his game and his pitch recognition. His power is natural but his swing never really has been.

 

I'm not against a reasonable extention, but if he says no, I'm not against a reasonable trade package either. More than jrm mind you.

[nclahammer]

This is one of the most positive stories I've read about any single player.  Case well-stated.

[ewen21]

 

I have not given up on Buxton;  however, until he shows some consistency, an extension will be ill-advised.

 

The two things are not mutually exclusive.   The Twins have bigger fish to fry at this point (pitching - pitching - pitching) to make them competitive, than a Buxton extension.

 

A Buxton extension will do nothing for them in 2019.  Cross that bridge when you have to, and Rosario, Berrios, Sano should be ahead of Buxton in the extension lines because of service time.

An extension at this point makes zero sense.  Why reward him at this juncture?  To show "loyalty" to him?  Inferiority complex much??

 

It also sends the wrong message to other players.  If we are going to climb out of the abysss then players need to earn their keep based on merit.  As mentioned, besides the lack of consistency, the injury factor looms large.  Add to it his propensity to run into things + the migraine issue.

 

All the potential and positive thinking in the world amounts to nothing, as #3 aptly put it

[peterb18]

He just doesn’t appear to have a feel for hitting. A guy like Robbie Grossman in no way has the athletic ability of Buxton but he has a feel for hitting. I would say no long term extension until he demonstrates the ability to hit for a respectable average.

[terrydactyls]

Buxton is super 2, not arb 1, I get it. The point is that extra year came at the cost of trust. Money doesn’t fix trust.

Nonsense. Offering lifetime financial security to a player that has only had two good months in the majors (along with a heart-to-heart discussion about the reasoning behind not calling him up last fall) could easily bring trust back into Buxton's world.

[yarnivek1972]

This is hard for me to fathom. Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution. Sano's floor is... I dunno. Chris Carter? Worse? He has nothing to fall back on if he's not an outstanding hitter. Furthermore, only one of those guys has ever given any reason to question his drive, focus and commitment.

Buxton’s floor is a 4 OPS+.

Edited November 10, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Riverbrian]

 

Buxton is super 2, not arb 1, I get it. The point is that extra year came at the cost of trust. Money doesn’t fix trust.

 

Bryce Harper spent 6 years in Washington. I haven't read any mention of him being treated unfairly. He was the king of DC and he was reportedly offered a nice extension and he turned it down. 

 

When the 6 years are up... the 6 years are up.    

[mlhouse]

 

Regarding Buxton and injuries: Paul Molitor was injured frequently early in his career. Once he got past those years and played regularly he flourished. I can see the same happening with Buxton. I'm not saying extend him now, but I am saying the time will come to extend him, and soon.

 

Molitor was injured for parts of his 4th and almost all of his 7th seasons in the league.

 

His first three seasons he had batting averages of .273, .322 and .304. and was an all-star player in his 3rd season.  IN his 5th season he hit .302 and scored 136 runs.

 

So, actually being succesful when he was healthy in the early part of his career is what separates Molitor from Buxton.

 

While I think the Twins need to figure out how to essentially rehabilitate Buxton to get him to reach the level of a slightly below average MLB hitter, a major contract extension would be a ridiculous move.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Bryce Harper spent 6 years in Washington. I haven't read any mention of him being treated unfairly. He was the king of DC and he was reportedly offered a nice extension and he turned it down.

 

When the 6 years are up... the 6 years are up.

it’s not the “if”, it’s the “how”. Harper’s service time was managed on the front side, instead of getting demoted and not brought up for September with two weeks to go.