Eduardo Escobar 2019 Starting 2nd Baseman?

[Loosey]

As we have seen over the years when given opportunities to play every day Eduardo Escobar shines.  Filling in for Miguel Sano so far this year he has shown he has the bat to be 3rd baseman, posting a .993 OPS while hitting 15 doubles and 7 home runs in 2018. 

 

Over his career Escobar has primarily played the left side of infield playing 322 games at short and 196 at 3rd base.  However, he has played a handful of games at 2nd base in his career.  The opportunities have been limited in Minnesota over the last 4 or 5 years with Dozier being a fixture there. 

 

However, it has been well publicized Brian Dozier would like to test free agency this winter.  And if he finds a new home, there is suddenly a glaring hole on the right side of the infield.  Granted, Dozier isn't doing much to increase his value as of now, but Dozier is the type of hitter who can go on absolute tears and make month long slumps disappear, which would likely increase his value again to levels the Twins may not want to pay.

 

This is where Escobar comes in.  Also a free agent at the end of the season, his reputation is not that of Dozier yet.  Which means he likely will cost much less on the open market, if he gets there.  

 

In small sample sizes defensively at 2nd base Eduardo's defensive metrics compare relatively close to Dozier.  Escobar is nearly two years younger than Dozier as well. 

 

Additionally, Escobar's ability to play multiple positions gives the Twins flexibility into the future.  For example if the Twins can sign him for a 3-4 year deal this off-season he can be penciled in to be the 2nd baseman in 2019 and at least the beginning of 2020.  But if Royce Lewis comes knocking in 2020 and continues to be the Shortstop everyone hopes he becomes Jorge Polanco can then be slid over to 2nd base and Esco back to 3rd assuming Sano will be a 1st baseman/DH by that time.

 

I don't think this is outside the realm of possibilities and personally believe this is a great option for the Twins future infield.

 

 

* Disclaimer - I am a very big Eduardo Escobar fan and am long Escobar stock.

 

   

[Brandon]

Odds are he would be the full time third baseman by next year. Sano isnt holding up too well over there. Sano will likely be a DH who plays some at third and 1B after this or maybe after next season if we keep Morrison another year.

[Battle ur tail off]

I think wherever you put him the Twins need to do their best to bring this guy back. He has done nothing but produce, he's never hurt, you rarely hear anything negative about him. 

 

Worse case you bring him back and have possibly the best utility infielder in the league. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

With Dozier's impending departure, this is the guy I thought we would certainly extend in the off-season.

Didn't go that way. I seriously wonder why not.

[TheLeviathan]

I wonder what he'll cost to retain.  I don't think he's coming cheap.

[yarnivek1972]

Is there some reason why second base couldn’t be manned by Alex Gordon or Jorge Polanco in 2019?

 

Forget about those guys?

 

IMO, Polanco is a key guy moving ahead, primarily because his contact approach contrasts with the rest of the core lineup. He would easily slot into any number of lineup positions.

[jun]

 

Is there some reason why second base couldn’t be manned by Alex Gordon or Jorge Polanco in 2019?

Forget about those guys?

IMO, Polanco is a key guy moving ahead, primarily because his contact approach contrasts with the rest of the core lineup. He would easily slot into any number of lineup positions.

Which Polanco are you talking about? The one who has been suspended for 80 games or the one who made too many errors on the field? He might be a part moving forward, I am not sure he is the key guy though. Especially if the key guys are Buxton, Sano, Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves and Gordon.

[Nine of twelve]

Odds are he would be the full time third baseman by next year. Sano isnt holding up too well over there. Sano will likely be a DH who plays some at third and 1B after this or maybe after next season if we keep Morrison another year.

This post seems to imply that playing 3B is a factor in Sano's injuries. I don't believe that's the case this year and it certainly wasn't the case during the last two months of 2017. I think he'll be at 3B most days when he's healthy.

[nicksaviking]

 

Is there some reason why second base couldn’t be manned by Alex Gordon or Jorge Polanco in 2019?

Forget about those guys?

IMO, Polanco is a key guy moving ahead, primarily because his contact approach contrasts with the rest of the core lineup. He would easily slot into any number of lineup positions.

 

Those are both speculative players. I don't care if one of them wins the 2B job, but either way there's room on the 25 man for Escobar. I'd be more than happy if he played a vintage Ben Zobrist role; not knowing where he's going to play until he shows up to the stadium and not caring which position it is as long as he gets to hit.

[yarnivek1972]

Which Polanco are you talking about? The one who has been suspended for 80 games or the one who made too many errors on the field? He might be a part moving forward, I am not sure he is the key guy though. Especially if the key guys are Buxton, Sano, Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves and Gordon.

What’s the difference between making an error or having range so poor that the ball gets past the player for a hit? Because that’s the difference between Escobar and Polanco. Escobar’s range isn’t going to get better. Polanco’s error rate might. Indeed, most players have their error rates go down as they gain experience. Additionally, a large chunk of them occurred during his truly horrendous midseason stretch. I can’t give you an exact number, but I distinctly remember looking up error totals last year by going through dozens of box scores and his error rate definitely spiked for 6 weeks or so following his grandfather’s death.

[jun]

 

What’s the difference between making an error or having range so poor that the ball gets past the player for a hit? Because that’s the difference between Escobar and Polanco. Escobar’s range isn’t going to get better. Polanco’s error rate might. Indeed, most players have their error rates go down as they gain experience. Additionally, a large chunk of them occurred during his truly horrendous midseason stretch. I can’t give you an exact number, but I distinctly remember looking up error totals last year by going through dozens of box scores and his error rate definitely spiked for 6 weeks or so following his grandfather’s death.

The difference is Escobar usually does not overdo it (Escobar does not do anything he is incapable of). Please don't make excuses for making errors on the field. Polanco gets paid as a professional baseball player. He is not the only one who has to deal with family loss. Anyway they are about the same on the field with Escobar having the slight edge. Escobar certainly has a better bat with more power. Escobar should get the starting job over Polanco.

[Brandon]

This post seems to imply that playing 3B is a factor in Sano's injuries. I don't believe that's the case this year and it certainly wasn't the case during the last two months of 2017. I think he'll be at 3B most days when he's healthy.

No, i was saying if sano is going to have leg problems moving forward and gains more weight, he will likely move to DH sooner as a preventative measure to limit risks of future injuries.

[jkcarew]

Escobar's career OPS+ is up to 94.  Not sure he's going to sustain the offensive value you would want from an every-day corner infielder.  (But, never say never, I guess.)

 

But to me Escobar's best value remains as a utility infielder.  He's turning into the classic utility infielder that you'd want on a championship-caliber team.  Decent offensively and defensively...better defensively than the starting corner infielders, while not giving up a ton offensively; and probably better offensively than most guys in the middle, without giving up a ton defensively.  That's the sweet spot for a super utility infielder.  Guy's like that can be in the lineup nearly every day...somewhere.

 

Also, just because I'm reading the phrase "Escobar filling in for Sano" so frequently....

Escobar is not currently filling in for Sano.  Adrianza is filling in for Sano.

[Danchat]

I have a hard time imaging Escobar's market because there haven't been many players like him. We usually don't see infielders peak at age 28-29 and hit so much better than their past track record indicated. He has position flexibility, but he's not good at any one position. I'm not even going to throw out a projected contract because I just don't know what MLB teams are going to offer him. (that's not necessarily a positive or negative statement.)

 

I hope the Twins will try to retain Dozier and Escobar and at least offer them deals, but if they're going to earn a big deal on the free agent market, then it'd be wise to let them go. It's hard to project what the infield will look like with Polanco currently suspended and Gordon arriving sometime within the next year. I would like to see one of Dozier or Escobar back with the Twins for 2019.

[jorgenswest]

How much different is Escobar's value from Eduardo Nunez? 

[crapforks]

Crazy to think about Escobar and the qualifying offer. He’s not there yet, but he’s heading in that direction. He’s on a tear that is approaching a calendar year.

[twins_89]

I think the more likely scenario is Escobar is brought back to play 3B with Gordon at SS, Polanco at 2B, and Sano at 1B. 

 

Based on Escobar's play since the middle of last season, a more interesting question is would the Twins give Escobar a qualifying offer this off-season ($17M one year offer that gets the Twins a compensation draft pick if he leaves)?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Can Alex Gordon really play second base?

[Cap'n Piranha]

Count me in the camp of those who would rather have Escobar than Dozier even if the money was the same. Since Esco will probably be cheaper, I would be more than happy to warmly applaud Dozier whenever he returns to Target Field next year with his new team.

[howeda7]

I would trade Sano and keep both Dozier and Escobar assuming you could get it done for a combined $30 million/year or so. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I hope they keep Esco around. Real problem is I think he wants to start. He's not getting that opportunity here. I think he's great in that super utility role, and honestly, he could start somewhere in the infield with most teams.

[Doctor Wu]

 

I wonder what he'll cost to retain.  I don't think he's coming cheap.

I'm not sure either. He might have been relatively cheap to extend a few months ago, but if he keeps playing like he's been doing so far this season, his asking price is going to rise a lot.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I'm not sure either. He might have been relatively cheap to extend a few months ago, but if he keeps playing like he's been doing so far this season, his asking price is going to rise a lot.

 

A few months ago I doubt he'd have taken a cheap extension. The smart move would be to bet on your final year and go get possibly your only market-rate contract you'll ever see.

[SwainZag]

 

I would trade Sano and keep both Dozier and Escobar assuming you could get it done for a combined $30 million/year or so. 

 

Selling low on a 25 year old Miguel Sano and extending a 31 year old Brian Dozier is exactly the opposite route I hope the front office goes.

[Danchat]

 

Selling low on a 25 year old Miguel Sano and extending a 31 year old Brian Dozier is exactly the opposite route I hope the front office goes.

I'm also thinking the Twins might try to trade Sano, but they would have to wait until his stock is higher. You can't trade a player with the ceiling he has on the cheap after injuries, the assault accusation, and the subpar offense and defense. I imagine Sano finishes the 2018 season with the Twins, as I can't see them trading him before the offseason.

[Riverbrian]

I don't care if the Twins sign Donaldson for 3B and Machado for SS... plus swing a trade for Altuve to play 2B.  

 

I'm still making an offer to Escobar by the end of business today. 

[Vanimal46]

No. Let him walk and try to resign Dozier, who has a much longer track record of offensive production.

 

Escobar will cool off and won't command an 8 figure annual contract.

[twins1095]

Escobar now has 85 runs, 31 2B - 5 3B - 28 HRs - 93 RBIs while slashing .265/.319/.481/.800 over his last 159 games.  

 

Maybe the biggest surprise over that time frame among a number of surprising developments. 

[twins1095]

More cool Escobar stats.  In games in which Escobar is a starter for the Twins since he became a regular in 2014 (492g and 1680 ABs in this sample):

 

****(I filtered out some of 2016 and left out 2013 in which he played as a utility/bench player/injury fill in/spot starter which seems to affect his numbers negatively a little bit, see 2013 and 2016.  He's not as effective of a hitter thus far in his career in this role without consistent PT and role)

 

Escobar's 162 game pace/per game production numbers are as follows:

 

.270avg - .315ops - .437 slg - .752ops 

 

70 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 17 HR - 70 RBI - 36BB - 112K -6.5 BB% - 20.3 K%

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Looking at the average OPS by position in 2015-2017 Escobar's OPS (.755) over this time span would rank:

 

--10th in SS OPS

--15th in 2B OPS (Dozier's 2016/17 .886 & .856 ranked 4th for reference)

--15-18th in 3B OPS

 

Looking at the average OPS by position using Escobar's OPS (.800) in his last 159 games (seemingly his prime): 

 

--5th-8th in SS OPS

--8th-10th in 2B OPS

--10-12th in 3B OPS

 

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

Thoughts--

 

I don't think Escobar is quite as good as the second measure suggests, his .877 OPS this season is well above his previous career highs of .758 and .754.   I do think it's fair to conclude that Escobar is at least a .750-.760 OPS guy now in his prime.  Has he truly taken another step forward this year and if so how far so?  

 

Escobar's value can't be undersold, offering solid to plus defense at 3 infield positions, while offering a roughly league average bat at 3B and SS and a borderline top 10 bat at SS is hard really nice for a player that not many expected to perform at this high of a level.  

 

As an aside, it's kind of cool to see the tiers in hitting talent between 2B, SS, and 3B.  SS is clearly the weakest position for hitting, it also has the largest variance--Escobar's .800 OPS going back further past 2015 ranked anywhere from 1-12 depending on the year--since 2015 the MLB SS position has gotten a lot better with that bat and Escobar's OPS falls back to somewhere between 5th and 10th on average depending on the year.  

 

I was surpised by the amount of hitting talent at the 2B position, there are a lot of good hitters here and it's no longer really a weak hitting position like it used to be.  It seems that teams hide their weak-fielding MI prospects with bats here to some extent--which makes sense.  

 

Again, not a surprise but there are tons of good hitters at 3rd base--Escobar's .800 OPS struggled to crack the top 10 on average.  

 

________________________________________________________________________________

 

My conclusion from this analysis is that Escobar is a really good player, likely peaking as we currently watch him, who's probably a top 10 or borderline top 10 SS right now.  Impressively, Escobar's current .877 OPS ranks him 6th behind a bunch of big names--he's having a borderline top 5 season for a SS currently.  

 

His real value comes from his ability to play SS, his glove doesn't matter nearly as much at SS or 2B and his bat doesn't play quite enough to be worth it to block Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon from playing time should things go right.  I can see them bringing Escobar back, but only if Polanco falters returing from suspension, they decide to move Sano to full time DH, or Escobar continues to hit with a ops well above .800.

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon should have a shot to take over the group in 2019

 

Aside from a 16 game stretch in July of 2017 in which Polanco went 2-47, in 117 games and over 441 Polanco at age 23 put up a 162 game pace numbers of:

 

.280 avg - .333obp - .780 ops - 9.3 BB% - 15 K%

 

75 runs - 40 2B - 4 3B - 18 HR - 103 RBI - 17 SB

 

That's after putting up a 22 season with pace numbers of: 

 

.282 - .333 - .757

 

56 runs - 35 2B - 10 3B - 10 HR - 65 RBI - 10 SB

 

Escobar's production and age is not worth blocking Polanco from a chance to win the spot.  The sample is enhanced a little bit to remove a slump, doing so for any player will make their numbers look much better, however Polanco's 1st half of 2017 was associated by some of the worst luck peripherals in the MLB last year despite hitting the ball extremely hard.   It's likely that his true talent level is something close to this level if not higher.  

 

Further, Nick Gordon at 22 years of age has 158 GP at the AA level and has put up a line of: 

 

.287- .352 -.785 - 9.5 BB% - 23.8 K%

 

98 runs - 38 2B - 11 3B - 12 HR - 84 RBI - 18 SB

 

We'll see if Gordon can replicate these types of numbers at the MLB level, but the beginning of 2019 should or could be the time the Twins give him a chance to break into the majors.  Even if this move costs the Twins in the immediate short term of the 2019 season as Gordon gets settled--it should pay off in the long term.  Especially with even strong MI prospects pushing at Gordon's heels.  

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Escobar will turn 30 at the beginning of next season and while it's unlikely that he'll drop off in produciton in the next 2 or 3 years, he's currently at the peak of his production.  During his contract he's provided incredible value for the Twins and has been an extremely valuable player.   But his value comes from his above-average bat/defense combo at the SS.  Escobar's bat doesn't play nearly as well at 2B or 3B . Unfortunately neither Gordon nor Polanco possess the arm to play 3B.  Further, their bats don't play as well as they do in the MI.  

 

The most surefire scenario in which the Twins retain Escobar is asking him to take over 3B duties, meaning that Miguel Sano's days fielding that position are numbered--which they might be.  If Miguel Sano is asked to transition towards a full-time DH or a full-time 1B/DH...the Twins don't have much immediate system help at 3B and will likely retain Escobar for the near future.  However this move would likely come at the cost or expense of a player like Joe Mauer and the Twins might be reluctant to choose Escobar over Mauer.  

 

I do hope that the Twins keep Escobar, but not at the expense of Polanco or Gordon's chances.  Moving Escobar to 3B and splitting Sano between 3B, 1B, and DH along with Mauer at 1B and DH could be the best way to get all of these players in the lineup.  It will be interesting to see what choices the Twins make.