Article: Ode To Byron Buxton

[Nick Nelson]

The opening moments of Monday night's MLB Draft played out quite similarly to the one that took place five years prior.

 

The Minnesota Twins, holding the first overall pick, went against the grain by selecting prep shortstop Royce Lewis, whom few regarded as the best available player. Meanwhile, the consensus top talent, Hunter Greene, fell to a grateful Cincinnati Reds organization at two.

 

In 2012, it was the Twins who were beneficiaries in a similar slot-allocation play at No. 1, when Houston's surprising selection of Carlos Correa dropped top-ranked Byron Buxton to Minny.

 

Obviously the Astros are feeling good about their decision, and we'll all be thrilled if Lewis even approaches Correa's brilliance, but today I wanted to recognize the player who landed here.

 

Buxton may not be matching Correa's ridiculous pace, and has certainly had his troubles, but he is an absolute treat to watch and – I will argue – already a star at age 23 in spite of a cringeworthy .200/.271/.291 hitting line.Clearly, the bat hasn't yet come around for Buxton. He has taken a step backward following last year's late surge, and sits with the fifth-worst OPS in the majors as we approach the halfway point. Nevertheless, he is maintaining a positive WAR (0.8 according to BR, 0.5 according to FG).

 

He is managing to make himself an essential everyday player, by chipping in defensively in ways that are extraordinary – though difficult to fully appraise.

 

Fielding metrics love him. FanGraphs has the center fielder tied with Colorado's DJ LeMahieu for fifth in the majors in defensive runs saved (DRS), at nine. The site also has Buck in the Top 10 for Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). According to StatCast, he leads the league in four-star plays (26-50% probability) and is 12-for-12 on such opportunities.

 

Some of these statistics try to quantify the tangible value of Buxton's defensive contributions, and do so generously. But can they truly encompass the extent of his impact? Sure, a calculation can spit out a "runs saved" number by comparing plays against baseline probabilities and running them through scoring matrixes (as DRS does), but Buxton helps the Twins in ways that go beyond measurement.

 

Consider this scenario. A shaky pitcher is struggling with his command in the early innings. He's got a runner on first with one out. He hangs one over the plate, and the batter drives it deep into a gap.

 

After a great read, Buxton makes a catch at full speed that virtually any other center fielder fails to make. Most don't come close.

 

The baserunner, already rounding second, slams the brakes and scurries back. The pitcher, pounding his mitt in celebration, now has a runner on first with two outs rather than a run in, a man on second or third, and one out. (In other words, a rally.)

 

He gets a grounder and escapes the inning. Buxton has not only saved runs, but also further physical and mental taxation for his teammate on the mound.

 

This isn't a hypothetical situation. It has played out, in some form, time and time again. I don't feel like I'm stretching it to say that Buxton's consistent presence in center has been THE biggest difference-maker for Twins pitching this year.

 

Although the team ERA has improved, from 5.08 to 4.87, the FIP (Fielding Independent) mark has inflated substantially from 4.57 to 5.05. You can make a good case the staff has actually pitched worse, just with much better support.

 

Other players are doing nice things defensively, and Jason Castro deserves his share of credit, but no one has changed games like Buxton. He deserves way more credit for this team's position five games above .500 than he is generally receiving.

 

And that's without providing much of anything with his bat. We will have to keep waiting on that, and cases like Aaron Hicks remind us these things can take time, but I continue to believe Buxton is far too talented and eminently capable to not figure things out at the plate rather soon.

 

Once he does, his rise to elite stardom will be as direct as his path to silencing a screaming liner.

 

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[Bill Brown69]

If he can keep from killing himself and play 10 more years he will be in the Ozzie Smith category of undeniably the best ever defensively at his position.

[EddieMatthews]

Buxton takes a lot of pressure off the pitching staff.  They know they can make a mistake and still get the out.  He also expands the coverage in left and right, allowing them to shade a couple of steps closer to the foul lines.  I like him.

 

Offensively, he is so fast to first, and can stretch any hit another base.  He will continue to make better contact and raise his hitting stats.  

[Monkeypaws]

Hear hear Nick. I do think the bat will come around, as well as the Gold Gloves. His range is just nuts, and he almost always reels in what he chases after. Just fearless out there: Bill Brown69 sums up my fears for his health quite well .

[amjgt]

I saw a couple days ago he was something like 0-8 on 5-star plays. That made me wonder.... is there a video compilation of all of the 5-star plays in the OF this year? Those must be some pretty damn incredible plays if Buxton has ZERO of them.

[sploorp]

I've never had a doubt about Buxton ever.  The Twins have had some amazing center fielders over the years, but I don't recall anybody so consistently making the plays he does.

 

His average has been slowly creeping upwards too.  He still chasing the outside stuff a bit too much, but not nearly as badly as he used to.  They've moved him up a little bit a few times in the line up as well.  I wouldn't mind seeing him lead off on days Dozier is sitting.  I would be curious to find out how he hits when he doesn't have to spend the first half hour of the game thinking about his first at bat.

[Rosterman]

I just hope he doesn't wear out his pre-arbitration years with no hitting and then starts to slowly develop, so the team doesn't know if it should take an expensive flyer on him longterm or not. Hopefully doesn't follow such notables as Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Ben Revere and Aaaron Hicks to excellent play...in other lands.

 

But, then again, will Lewis be a shortstop (Nick Gordon) or centerfielder (pushing last year's top pick to left or right). We may not have to worry about Buxton is five years.

[akmanak]

Are you kidding me? Why so many puff pieces on this guy? He cant bat. Havent we squeezed enough out of this turnip? Trade him.

[HitInAPinch]

Is his defense enough to cover-up his offensive failings?  IMHO:  no.  His offense has not been trending up.  Ave.  is hovering around the Mendoza-line.

 

Molitor has been benching Buxton an awful lot lately.  I don't know what it will take to get Buxton rolling offensively.  I hope someone can figure it out.  Or maybe the old baseball adage "As the summer warms up, so will the bats" will kick in for Buxton. 

[wabene]

"Hopefully doesn't follow such notables as Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Ben Revere and Aaaron Hicks to excellent play in other lands."

 

Span and Revere were already what they are before we traded them. Excellent play? I wouldn't go that far.

[Mr. Brooks]

Are you kidding me? Why so many puff pieces on this guy? He cant bat. Havent we squeezed enough out of this turnip? Trade him.

Perhaps because a run prevented carries just as much weight as a run scored?

Buxton is an elite defensive player. He wins games with his glove. And, we get to freeroll his bat coming around, which I still believe will.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I just hope he doesn't wear out his pre-arbitration years with no hitting and then starts to slowly develop, so the team doesn't know if it should take an expensive flyer on him longterm or not. Hopefully doesn't follow such notables as Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Ben Revere and Aaaron Hicks to excellent play...in other lands.

 

But, then again, will Lewis be a shortstop (Nick Gordon) or centerfielder (pushing last year's top pick to left or right). We may not have to worry about Buxton is five years.

 

Or the Twins could extend him on the cheap, because defense is undervalued, and then have an inexpensive all-star if he even becomes semi-decent at the plate.

Edited June 14, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[diehardtwinsfan]

I get the defensive value, but that bat isn't ready yet...  at what point does it make sense to let him get a tune up in AAA?

[drivlikejehu]

Buxton is already able to hit AAA pitching, pointless and counterproductive exercise to send him there.

[Blackjack]

I'll be amazed if he can stay healthy.  One major injury -- can you say Jason Kubel -- and his major strength - defense - could be gone.

 

I hope in five years I'm eating crow and he's an all-star.

[adorduan]

Already a star?  Are you kidding me?  As someone else said, why the puff piece?  He is what he is at this point, a great defensive player, and a big offensive liability. "Stars" don't have negative OWAR, they just don't.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Buxton is already able to hit AAA pitching, pointless and counterproductive exercise to send him there.

I don't agree with that at all.  Buxton is NOT hitting major league pitching, and at one point, working on some things where he cement good behaviors is far more important than letting him continue to flail away at pitches he has no business even swinging at. 

 

AAA is not just about proving you've mastered the level.  That's scouting stat lines. I'm glad that his average has crept up from under a hundred to around the medoza line, but he's swinging at way too many pitches out of the zone and setting himself up to fail.  He's got to correct that, and at one point, a minor league stint to do that makes sense.

[drivlikejehu]

Buxton can't learn how to hit MLB pitching in AAA. We've already seen this exact thing before with him and others (cough*Hicks*cough).

 

All those AAA adjustments immediately go out the window when MLB pitchers continue attacking the weaknesses that AAA pitchers can't. Then it's back to square one, player goes up and down, different coaches, loss of confidence . . . Absolutely horrible idea for a player comfortably above replacement level.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I'm hoping Buxton doesn't turn into the next "Mauer contract" as the most divisive issue amongst fans. Judging by the posts above, though, he's on his way there.

 

Of course, if he hits at all, the point is mute. But I tend to agree with the posts above wondering about the point of writing this article. The tie in with the draft I get (though it's a little weak to think it deserved a whole article). His defense is amazing, but do we need a whole article basically calling him a "star" despite being the 5th worst qualified hitter in the majors.

 

You can't call Buxton a "star" yet. And at this point can we really make statements like WHEN his hitting comes around rather than IF. Their is no guarantee he'll turn it around.

[mikelink45]

Great fielder - no doubt, great player - no way.  Ozzie was a great fielder and a poor batter, but he hit .26., .337, 328.  When Byron approaches those stats we can give him star status, but not yet.

[jbissell]

Excellent article. Buxton is my favorite player on the team based on what I think he'll end up becoming, and how exciting he currently is to watch despite his offensive struggles. 

 

It does appear his K rate has gone way down at least.

[ashbury]

Buxton can't learn how to hit MLB pitching in AAA. We've already seen this exact thing before with him and others (cough*Hicks*cough).

Can we option Byron to New York and then call him back "up" when he learns a few things?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Buxton can't learn how to hit MLB pitching in AAA. We've already seen this exact thing before with him and others (cough*Hicks*cough).

All those AAA adjustments immediately go out the window when MLB pitchers continue attacking the weaknesses that AAA pitchers can't. Then it's back to square one, player goes up and down, different coaches, loss of confidence . . . Absolutely horrible idea for a player comfortably above replacement level.

 

I don't agree with either of these statements.  He can certainly learn things about hitting in AAA, and what is really hard is trying to get him into good habits when he's pressing and letting MLB pitching exploit him.  His problem right now is his approach, and win now mode doesn't exactly lend itself to improving his approach.

 

AAA has values beyond the stat lines, and I have a tough time believing Buxton is above replacement level right now. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

Is the organizations best hitting coach in Minnesota or in Rochester? If it's Rochester, what in the heck are we doing as an organization. If it's Minnesota, wouldn't we want Buxton to be working with that guy?

[Teflon]

Can't argue with Buxton's contributions on defense. His range in center actually makes Kepler and Rosario/Grossman more valuable as the Twins can shade them more to the pull fields. Also a big part of the reason that the Twins opponents BABIP is .286 this year after being .320 last year. I don't know why the previous Twins front office so undervalued outfield defense - especially with the types of pitchers they employed.

[Jham]

Statistically, Buxton is a great defender. He's not an all time great in my mind. He has rather poor field awareness which leads to injuries. He takes some interesting routes and makes some bad reads, then makes up for them with blazing speed. His hands are average. Arm seems strong but not a hose. He's not going to get any faster. It won't be long before he starts slowing down. When his world class speed dips, it does not appear he'll have the instincts and route efficiency to make up for it. Maybe the metrics disagree. That's my eye test. 0-8 on 5 stars also fits my eye test. He's great diving, but awkward leaping, had trouble with timing, and doesn't always catch or catch cleanly when going back. It's nitpicking, but the comparison of Ozzie Smith requires it.

Edited June 14, 2017 by Jham

[bluechipper]

 

I get the defensive value, but that bat isn't ready yet...  at what point does it make sense to let him get a tune up in AAA?

Maybe when he stops being valuable to the Twins. Did you watch the game Buxton sat against the Giants? Those 2 doubles Berrios gave up would have been caught if Buxton were playing.

[Piranyas]

Agree that Buck needs to turn around his hitting to stay and that his defense is both difficult to measure and incredibly important to the game's flow. Need only look back to the Kepler error against Cleveland in the first inning that taxed Phil Hughes and Rosario's non-catch in center against Houston during their comeback. Buxton's not perfect nor can all fielders be expected to be perfect, but you have to appreciate the effect his catches have on the game and his pitchers. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Maybe when he stops being valuable to the Twins. Did you watch the game Buxton sat against the Giants? Those 2 doubles Berrios gave up would have been caught if Buxton were playing.

 

And he's playing less and less because he cannot hit.  He was off against Berrios and off again yesterday.  I understand the desire to see him, but it isn't necessarily best for Buxton to keep him up while his hit tool continues to border somewhere between terrible and well below average. 

[IndianaTwin]

What is this number string: 82-48-71-62-84-82-95.

 

a: Today's Powerball numbers.

b: Tonight's Bingo numbers at the local retirement home.

c: The combination to my bike padlock. (It's a big padlock.)

d: Ozzie Smith's season-by-season OPS+ numbers from the first seven years of his career, covering ages 23-29, when he finally started to put it together offensively.

 

Hint: They told me in class that if I don't have an idea on multiple choice, go with the option that is noticeably longer or shorter than the others.

 

That makes the answer d, which is correct. Star or not star, I don't care. Puff piece or not, I think we need regular reminders that he is still 23. And to paraphrase some college basketball coach talking about freshmen, "What's the best thing about a 23-year-old?" He becomes a 24-year-old.