Article: The More Things Change, The More Things Change

[Seth Stohs]

On Tuesday, Eddie Rosario was optioned to Rochester with newly-acquired Robbie Grossman filling his roster spot. There have been a ton of transactions in the minor leagues so far this year, but it all starts up top.

 

Opening Day was just over six weeks ago. Generally speaking, teams like to make minimal transactions for at least the first sixty games of the season. The Twins will play their 40th game of the 2016 on Thursday, looking for their 11th win. They have filled the transactions lists. They have had several players placed on the DL.

 

Most of the promotions and demotions have been on the roster's edges which makes sense for several reasons. Teams aren't looking to trade in early May so the players that teams might have interest in during June and particularly July won't bring back much at this time.

 

A quick look at the wins Opening Day roster (again, just over six weeks ago) and comparing it to today shows just how much change over there has been.Let's break this out into positions. Let's start with the Hitters:

 

OPENING DAY ROSTER

 

C - Kurt Suzuki

1B - Joe Mauer

2B - Brian Dozier

3B - Trevor Plouffe

SS - Eduardo Escobar

LF - Eddie Rosario

CF - Byron Buxton

RF - Miguel Sano

DH - Byung Ho Park

 

Bench: John Ryan Murphy, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Eduardo Nunez

 

MAY 19 ROSTER

 

C - Kurt Suzuki

1B - Joe Mauer

2B - Brian Dozier

3B - Trevor Plouffe

SS - Eduardo Nunez

LF - Oswaldo Arcia

CF - Danny Santana

RF - Miguel Sano

DH - Byung Ho Park

 

Bench: Juan Centeno, Jorge Polanco, Robbie Grossman, Darin Mastroianni

 

HITTER SUMMARY

 

There was so much optimism for this offense when spring training camp broke and they went to DC to play a couple of games against the Nationals. The offense has struggled at the things it did so well a year ago, especially in that 20-8 May. They aren't bunching hits together or hitting as well with Runners In Scoring Position. The strikeouts are high (though not as alarmingly so as they were early in the season.

 

This list really doesn't look like as much change as one would think. The change is on the fringes. The veterans are still in there. Byung Ho Park has exceeded early-season expectations and has been good. Joe Mauer had a great April and is back to the 2014 and 2015 version so far in May. Brian Dozier's struggles since last year's All Star break continue. Eduardo Escobar in on the Disabled List. Trevor Plouffe has been just fine, but he missed time on the Disabled List too.

 

We saw Max Kepler come up to the Twins just four games into the season. He sat on the bench most of the time. Jorge Polanco has already been up three times and aside from a few starts has been on the bench most of the time.

 

Byron Buxton struck out in 49.0% of his plate appearances and had to be optioned. Eddie Rosario was given over 100 plate appearances to make some adjustments. It just wasn't happening. Oswaldo Arcia started taking some playing time from him. For awhile, he was very good, but he has slumped of late as well.

 

John Ryan Murphy couldn't buy a hit, so he was finally optioned to Rochester after about a month. Juan Centeno, one of the better stories from spring training, was promoted.

 

Eduardo Nunez has certainly been a success story. He was place in the lineup early in the year after some injuries and he has continued to hit all year. He's certainly earned his playing time, though it was injuries that gave it to him at first. He took advantage. Polanco and Mastroianni sit on the bench most days. It is perfectly fine for a veteran such as Mastroianni to sit on the bench, maybe making a start a week and playing defense in a couple more, but Polacno needs to play every day and should do so in Rochester until a move is made to clear some playing time for him.

 

As I wrote earlier this week, the best thing for Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Murphy and other young players is to play a lot. To get repetitions on defense and get a lot of plate appearances. In fact, I wrote about that during the second week of the season when Polanco and Kepler were both sitting on the bench most every day. However, at some point, the organization needs to turn things over to the next group and hope that their talent takes over and they find success in conjunction with some of the veterans.

 

 

Now let's take a look at the pitcher comparisons, starting with the starters. .

 

OPENING DAY ROTATION

 

SP - Ervin Santana

SP - Phil Hughes

SP - Tommy Milone

SP - Kyle Gibson

SP - Ricky Nolasco

 

MAY 19 ROTATION

 

SP - Ervin Santana

SP - Phil Hughes

SP - Ricky Nolasco

SP - Tyler Duffey

SP - Pat Dean

 

STARTER SUMMARY

 

By just looking at the list, it doesn't look dramatically different, but there are a few things to note. First, who had Pat Dean in the starting rotation six weeks into the season?

 

Ervin Santana missed 15 days with some back issues. Kyle Gibson has been on the DL with a shoulder strain. Phil Hughes let it be known after his most recent start that he has been experiencing what they're calling "shoulder fatigue." While it isn't an injury, anyone who has played is aware of what is often called "Dead Arm." It can strike at any time and is a phase, often short-term, where a pitcher just isn't feeling right and able to air things out in the same way as "normal." Hughes has been continuing to pitch while working with the training staff. Those were supposed to be the three givens at the top of the rotation.

 

Tommy Milone pitched well in spring training and entered the season as the #4 starter. He struggled to be able to eat many innings early in the season and was eventually moved into the bullpen. After just an appearance out of the bullpen, he was place on waivers. He was able to clear waivers and is now in the Rochester rotation and off of the 40-man roster.

 

Ricky Nolasco beat out Tyler Duffey for the fifth spot in the rotation and looked good his first few starts. He's struggled since then.

 

It wasn't long before Duffey was back in the big leagues. Right now, he's clearly the Twins top starting pitcher again, as he was over his final nine starts in 2015.

 

Jose Berrios reached the big leagues and made four starts. He struggled in the first, and despite continued control problems, he pitched well in his second and third starts. However, on Monday in Detroit, he recorded just two outs and gave up seven runs. Most alarming, he walked four batters. Following the game, he was sent back to Rochester.

 

Pat Dean is set to make his first MLB start on Saturday. He came into the game to replace Berrios and pitched into the 7th inning. The southpaw should get a couple of starts before Kyle Gibson returns from the Disabled List.

 

The starters began the season by pitching well for the first time or two through the rotation, but since then injury and inconsistency has taken over.

 

THE BULLPEN

 

OPENING DAY ROSTER

 

CL - Glen Perkins

RP - Kevin Jepsen

RP - Trevor May

RP - Ryan Pressly

RP - Casey Fien

RP - Fernando Abad

RP - Michael Tonkin

 

MAY 19 ROSTER

 

CL - Kevin Jepsen

RP - Trevor May

RP - Ryan Pressly

RP - Michael Tonkin

RP - Fernando Abad

RP - Brandon Kintzler

RP - Taylor Rogers

 

BULLPEN SUMMARY

 

Less than a week into the season, Glen Perkins went on the DL with a shoulder strain and hasn't been able return yet. There still is no timeline for his return. Since then, everyone has moved up one spot. It hasn't gone well. Kevin Jepsen has been unreliable in the close role. Trevor May has been a strikeout machine in the bullpen, but he has struggled his last couple of outings. Ryan Pressly was good the first few weeks but has struggled the last month. Michael Tonkin has certainly had ups and downs all season. Fernando Abad has been very good most of his times out all season.

 

Casey Fien was also placed on waivers at the same time as Tommy Milone. Fien was claimed by the Dodgers who then placed him on waivers and when he cleared they sent him to AAA.

 

JR Graham got one appearance before being DFAd and traded to the Yankees. Ryan O'Rourke was DFAd at the same time. He cleared waivers and is pitching well again at Rochester. He actually continued to pitch well against left-handers, as he has his entire career.

 

Brandon Kintzler was brought in on a minor league contract. He came up when Graham and Fien were let go. Taylor Rogers is already up for the second time. The first time was when Perkins was DLd. He pitched just once and was sent back down. With Dean moving into the rotation, the Twins needed a long reliever and Rogers got the call again.

 

ROSTER SUMMARY

 

The Twins have averaged one player sent to the Disabled List each week so far this season including two players in the Opening Day lineup and two in their Opening Day starting rotation. Their closer has been on the Disabled List almost all season.

 

Three of the four bench players on Opening Day are now starting due to injury or poor play. Fien and Milone were already placed on waivers. Two other bullpen guys have been DFAd.

 

To this point, the changes have been on the fringes. Changes made (non-DL moves) have been at the back end of the rotation and the bullpen and with the young hitters that have struggled.

 

The veterans (who are healthy) remain on the roster. Of course, that is subject to change in the coming months as the Twins are clearly "Sellers" at this point in the season and fans look to 2017 and beyond. In my most recent article, I wrote that the Twins should turn over the roster to the future August 1st. That was an arbitrary date. There's no reason at this point to wait to make deals until the July 31st deadline if any present themselves sooner

 

Until then, we will watch Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana and Miguel Sano in the Twins outfield while an outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. That is the group that will be fun to watch and think about going forward, especially should Miguel Sano move back to third base.

 

There have been a lot of transactions and the season is just six weeks old. However, the Twins have ten wins and have been swept eight times already. It is likely there will be a lot more transactions before this season is over. Will there be many more wins?

 

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[David HK]

It's just downright embarrassing.  They are St. Louis Browns kinda bad.  I'm good with leaving Buck, Kepler, and now Rosario in Rochester long term for now.  And I agree that Polanco would be better served there, too.  But I want want 'em all up in August-September, and playing every day the rest of the way.  

 

Pitching-wise, there's more leeway to have guys in the bigs here and there, but the way Molly has used the guys who've come up so far has been incredibly counter-productive, bordering on disgraceful, IMO.  There just seems to be even less of a plan on the pitching side than there is in the field.  

 

This is gonna be one long dang year.  

[gbg]

I'm going back to bed, and pulling the covers up way over my eyes.

[wsnydes]

 

It's just downright embarrassing.  They are St. Louis Browns kinda bad.  I'm good with leaving Buck, Kepler, and now Rosario in Rochester long term for now.  And I agree that Polanco would be better served there, too.  But I want want 'em all up in August-September, and playing every day the rest of the way.  

 

Pitching-wise, there's more leeway to have guys in the bigs here and there, but the way Molly has used the guys who've come up so far has been incredibly counter-productive, bordering on disgraceful, IMO.  There just seems to be even less of a plan on the pitching side than there is in the field.  

 

This is gonna be one long dang year.  

The only thing I'd change with this would be that I'd like to see all of those guys up in July.  At this point however, a full fledged youth movement would be welcome.  That would at least be a display of some sort of plan.

[mikelink45]

I have always wondered what a replacement level team would be - that is everyone at 0 war, the proverbial replacement player that everyone is judged against.  I believe Mastrianni and Grossman would qualify here. Fan graphs has the entire team with a collective 4.9 war.  That is spread over 9 players (Tommy Milone is one) and nine with a 0 war.  18 players divided in to 4.9 war = .272 war per player - pretty close to replacement level.  Then I continue down the list and there are 7 players with negative war for a total of -2.2.  The total for the team - 25 players currently on the roster is 2.3 war batting and 1.7 war pitching when I checked the team totals (also fangraphs).  Is this the closest thing to a replacement level team that can be found?  Does this mean that we are actually over performing with 10 wins instead of 4?

[DaveW]

A "replacement level" team would get you approx 48 wins in a 162 game season, the Twins are actually behind that pace.

[Vanimal46]

As I look out of the window in my office and see thunderstorms roll in, reading this piece is very fitting this morning. There's going to be a lot of stormy days with this franchise until the young players step up their game.

[REPETE]

My question is, has Molitor said why he's got the young kids up here sitting on the bench?  I'm sure TR made the decision to bring them up, but obviously, Moli has no faith in them to play every day (or more than once a week).  I always liked TK's approach;  "we didn't bring them up to sit on the bench."  

 

With a full fledged youth movement, ie, trading some veterans at some point, will he start playing them, or will we be watching Rex Grossman & Mastroianni play everyday, with Molitor becoming a player/coach, and Bruno becoming our RF?   

[dgwills]

This is really not the roster you want to have in what should be year 5 of the rebuild. Molitor doesn't seem to realize what kind of team he is managing. Normally I'd never expect the Twins to fire a manager mid-season, but they may not have a choice. Unless the front office is on board with his decisions. That would be even more concerning.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Polanco down; free Beresford......seriously, what's that guy got to do to get a cup of coffee this year?

[071063]

Molitor needs to be accountable for not playing some of the kids when they come up.  It makes no sense o bring them up and let the rot on the bench.

[Blake]

I'm going back to what I said a while ago. I do not think Molitor is very good at managing and working with players.

[USAFChief]

There's a couple things that haven't changed, starting at a level above the dugout.

 

So I would say a more accurate thread title would be, the more things stay the same, the less things change.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Polanco down; free Beresford......seriously, what's that guy got to do to get a cup of coffee this year?

Mr. Ryan, 

 

For the cost of a cup of coffee a day, you could help a desperate Australian boy manifest his dreams of playing major league baseball. 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Mr. Ryan, 

 

For the cost of a cup of coffee a day, you could help a desperate Australian boy manifest his dreams of playing major league baseball. 

 

* Cue up Sarah McLachlan's "I Will Remember You" and pictures of sad, lonely animals *

[birddog]

Apathy is running rampant. I like the "going back to bed" approach as it seems there will be nothing exciting until the trade deadline.

[nokomismod]

What kind of return could Buxton generate now? A long term outfield of Rosario, Santana, and Kepler sounds good for 2017. I have more faith in all three of these players being complete players than I do in Buxton, but maybe something is going to click soon.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What kind of return could Buxton generate now? A long term outfield of Rosario, Santana, and Kepler sounds good for 2017. I have more faith in all three of these players being complete players than I do in Buxton, but maybe something is going to click soon.

 

Ya, I think you need to re-think this post. Santana is one of the 5 worst players in all of baseball. Buxton is an immense talent, that needs to work on pitch recognition. Even if he never hits much better, he's about 4 x better than Santana will ever be.

 

I have no idea why you have faith in Rosario.....given his track record. And Kepler? I love him as a prospect, but he's had a handful of MLB ABs. I have no idea why you'd believe in him over Buxton right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First, who had Pat Dean in the starting rotation six weeks into the season?

I figured Dean would get a starting shot before Meyer and May, which he basically did (Meyer's one-off start excepted).  Notice how everyone is already assuming Dean will get multiple starts, until Gibson returns?  Why didn't that happen with Meyer when we called him up?  Oh right, we had to get Tommy Milone one last start before waiving him, then we had to get JR Graham up for a day, and let Phil Hughes average 60-some pitches per start.  Priorities!

 

Berrios did get a shot ahead of Dean which I did not predict, although perhaps only due to the retirement of David Murphy...

[DocBauer]

First...same as everyone else, why aren't the kids playing when up? What...we're going to win something???

 

Second, I'm still wondering why Berrios didn't just stay up for another 2 starts before Gibson comes back. (theoretically)

[savvyspy]

Robbie Grossman........

 

Did the team announce that on the deck of the USS Missouri?

 

I fully expect the white flag to be flying over Target Field tonight against the Jays.

[nokomismod]

 

Ya, I think you need to re-think this post. Santana is one of the 5 worst players in all of baseball. Buxton is an immense talent, that needs to work on pitch recognition. Even if he never hits much better, he's about 4 x better than Santana will ever be.

 

I have no idea why you have faith in Rosario.....given his track record. And Kepler? I love him as a prospect, but he's had a handful of MLB ABs. I have no idea why you'd believe in him over Buxton right now.

Time will tell with all of these guys but at least with Santana and Rosario we have seen flashes of both offensive and defensive goodness. I really have no clue whether Kepler will pan out but he seems to have the tools.

I want to see Buxton succeed, but I am no longer confident that he will be a star. If the Twins are able to get a good return, I think they should consider it.

[alarp33]

 

What kind of return could Buxton generate now? A long term outfield of Rosario, Santana, and Kepler sounds good for 2017. I have more faith in all three of these players being complete players than I do in Buxton, but maybe something is going to click soon.

 

Is this real or meant to be a joke?

[gocgo]

Just throwing poop at the wall and hoping it sticks.  That's pretty much been the approach as far as I can see.  Never mind actually trying to coach and improve players.  Just put them on the field and if they screw up, send them back down and repeat the process.

[alarp33]

 

Time will tell with all of these guys but at least with Santana and Rosario we have seen flashes of both offensive and defensive goodness. I really have no clue whether Kepler will pan out but he seems to have the tools.

I want to see Buxton succeed, but I am no longer confident that he will be a star. If the Twins are able to get a good return, I think they should consider it.

 

Byron Buxton (who was rushed to the majors and clearly looked not ready) has a higher Major League OPS than Danny Santana since the start of 2015.  

 

You think Danny Santana is better defensively in CF than Buxton?  We must be watching different games... 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Our record is 2-9 since Ryan "shook up" the roster with all those moves back on May 6.

[Homer Hanky]

I would really like to see all the top prospects moved to Double A ball to work with Dougie baseball... and then promote them all with the coach after Molitor is fired. 

[Rosterman]

We want seasoning down on the farm.

 

We want the young guys to play together in the major leagues.

 

Torn between the joys of an outfield of Sano, Santana and Grossman rather than the struggles of Buxton Kepler Arcia (with Sano at third and Rosario as the 4th outfielder).

 

Let Centeno start and have Garver or Turner be back up, or let Murphy struggle up here to see if he belongs.

 

Polanco and Santana are the bench infielders perhaps, or rotation at SS with Escobar being the chief backup?

 

We can wait on the rotation shakeup until the trade deadline passes.

 

The bullpen needs a house cleaning as soon as some arms get some AAA time. See if Reed or Burdi or Bard can handle the higher level. They have troubles at AA...but it might jsut be AA.

 

 

[Comrade Bork]

How about a 10 person trade with a couple other bad teams. Give this roster a 4-5 player shake up wake up.

[djvang]

The youngsters need to play every day. The question is should it be in AAA or the majors? Is flailing away in the majors better than doing well in AAA? Personally I think TR gave in to fan pressure and rushed everyone up before they were ready.