There's a Clear Standout Among Closer Targets for the Twins in Free Agency

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins headed into the 2026 season with gaping hole at the back end of their bullpen. Trading away Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland and Griffin Jax left them deprived of proven options for the late innings. In the early going, it hurt them.

Though the course of the year, the Twins did establish some solid options to handle high leverage for 2027. Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez thrived in the setup and closer role for much of the year before nosediving down the stretch. Jeff Hoffman looked brilliant after being acquired at the deadline, but ended the year sidelined by a forearm injury.

There's much more to work with now than there was a year ago, but that's not necessarily saying much. If the Twins want to invest boldly and aggressively this offseason, as Tom Pohlad insisted in a year-ending press conference on Tuesday, one of the most obvious places to do so is by spending on a late-inning arm, and perhaps even a closer who can push everyone else down the pecking order.

There are a number of options in this year's free agent class who fit that billing, including Bryan Abreu, whom the Twins nearly acquired at the deadline. But there's another name that really stands out as a fit, in part because of his connection to Minnesota's manager.

David Bednar emerged as an All-Star closer under Derek Shelton's watch in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.01 ERA with 146 saves over four-and-a-half seasons with the Pirates. Bednar was traded to the Yankees at last year's deadline, and played out his final year of team control in New York this year, notching 35 saves with a 2.47 ERA as closer. 

Dating back to his breakout season in 2021, Bednar ranks fourth among MLB relievers in fWAR, trailing only Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader and Duran — three of the best closers in this generation. He's got the fifth-most saves, and his record of success was interrupted only by a random down year in 2024, from which he's bounced back fully. 

 

At 32, Bednar will be one of the top relievers on the market. There will be plenty of teams vying for his services, including the Yankees who've experienced his excellence first-hand. Outbidding the field will require the Twins to pony up, and in that regard, would be a strong follow-through on Pohlad's big talk.

It would surely make Shelton a happy camper. Not many things went right during his time in Pittsburgh, but Bednar played a big role in any success they had, ranking behind only Paul Skenes and Bryan Reynolds in Win Probability Added over Shelton's managerial tenure. He was not shy about his 

"When you have stability at the end of the game when you have the opportunity to win, it's something that you lean on," Shelton said in 2022. "We've leaned on David … But that stability at the end of a game is extremely important for a young club.”

Last year, when Bednar was traded from Pittsburgh to New York, Shelton gave a scouting report to C.J. Nitowski of MLB Network Radio and praised the right-hander's elite makeup and overpowering arsenal. 

 

I don't know how much Shelton's history with Bednar should really factor into the equation of targeting him as a free agent, but the reality is that he stands out as an ideal pickup even with that aside. He checks every box in the Twins should be looking for with a big bullpen splash:

Proven track record of success and durability? Check. Plenty of closing experience, including in the postseason? Check. A big enough name to satisfy the standard of ambition and aggressiveness that Pohlad promised? Check.

Bednar won't come cheaply, and that's kind of the point. If the Twins are serious about wanting to invest, this is the caliber of free agent they should be pursuing: established, durable, dominant and capable of immediately upgrading a clear area of need.

The Shelton connection only makes the fit cleaner. He already knows what it feels like to hand Bednar a late lead and trust that the game is going to end there. Bringing that certainty to Minnesota would strengthen the bullpen, clarify everyone's role and give Pohlad a meaningful early opportunity to put some substance behind his promise of a different kind of offseason

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[PuckettPond]

Bednar is for a World Series contender not a rebuilding small market team. His price tag would handcuff the Twins roster. Remember Arod in Texas. Twins need to build their bull pen from within via trades , draft & free agent castoffs. Twins need players who have not reached their peak not over priced players who have their peaks in the rear view mirror. We need future All Stars not ex All Stars. Twins FO  need to be better Stewards of payroll for future success.   

[mike8791]

Agree totally Nick.  If we go into 2027 expecting Gomez and Morris to be 2 of our top 3 relievers again, we're just kidding ourselves again.  Signing Bednar(or equivalent) might cost $15-20MM/year, but that figure could be somewhat offset by not resigning Mintner and not resigning guys like Taylor.  No team pushing to be among the league's elite can be successful without a true closer.  If the Twins were to add Jeffers(or trade/sign an established catcher), trade/sign for a cleanup hitter at IB, and sign Bednar, that would make for a very successful offseason.

[DJL44]

Adding Bednar might get them to the 80 win threshold next season. They have 99 problems and a closer is only one of them.

[bjorks]

15 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Bednar is for a World Series contender not a rebuilding small market team. His price tag would handcuff the Twins roster. Remember Arod in Texas. Twins need to build their bull pen from within via trades , draft & free agent castoffs. Twins need players who have not reached their peak not over priced players who have their peaks in the rear view mirror. We need future All Stars not ex All Stars. Twins FO  need to be better Stewards of payroll for future success.   

While I'm not a huge Bednar fan (mostly from a few blow up years) Nick makes a good point about pushing everyone down. What if Gomez/Sands/Morris are pitching the 7th instead of the 8th? What if Hoffman is pitching the 8th and not the 9th? 

To be serious you have to have the back locked down and while Bednar is probably chasing a ring at this point, he's better than any other option we have. He made $9 this year and could he cost $13-$14, maybe but I'd rather have it settled with Bednar/Hoffman combo at the backend than going in with Sands/Rogers/Topa/Orze/et al. 

 

[PuckettPond]

The White Sox have the Pope who does the Twins have or need? If the White Sox make the World Series this fall then Twins fans need fish sticks Fridays.

[LastOnePicked]

Good find. Good fit. If the Twins truly have a desire to win in 2027, this is the kind of signing that would communicate that to the fans.

It's also a good reminder to the organization that half-measures are very costly. A rebuilding team didn't need a Varland or a Bednar, but now that they want to push their chips in again, they'll have to pay market rates to recoup lost talent.

Just be sure to kick the tires and read medical reports carefully this time.

(Note: this has been fun, but I would bet almost anything the Twins won't sign him.)

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

$9,000, 000 won't sign Bednar for 2027. I just think the amount of money needed to sign Bednar, whether 1 year or several years, could be better spent elsewhere. There is a reason that right-handed reliever is the lowest paid position in baseball. They are also the most easily replaced. I am an advocate for throwing a bunch of potential relievers, emphasizing young, flame throwers, against the wall and seeing what sticks. 

[Whammy]

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

Bednar is for a World Series contender not a rebuilding small market team. His price tag would handcuff the Twins roster. Remember Arod in Texas. Twins need to build their bull pen from within via trades , draft & free agent castoffs. Twins need players who have not reached their peak not over priced players who have their peaks in the rear view mirror. We need future All Stars not ex All Stars. Twins FO  need to be better Stewards of payroll for future success.   

I disagree with your sentiment here, but rather than just give it a thumbs down, I'll ask....

So, if you had a $150M payroll for the Twins, what would you do this offseason? I could try to read between the lines of your post, but I won't assume.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

So the Twins are going to sign him to a contract of 2 to 3 years between 30 - 50 million at the minimum and people think this is a good way for the Twins to spend money? 

At 15 million a year he becomes the 5th highest paid closer in the game (the 4 above play for the Houston, Dodgers, Mets and Braves, I ask again is this a good way for the Twins to spend money? 

Seems like the type of player you sign when you haven't missed the playoffs the last three years, and Jenkins, Culpepper and others have proven something, not still trying to prove themselves. 

Also seems like a player people will be pissed he is making so much for a .500 club and demanding him to be traded for prospects.

[MeleMouth]

Spending a lot of money on a pitching staff is a good way for an 80 win team to have a $50 million IL, especially a team whose key position player is the oft-injured Byron Buxton.

Bednar could require at least $16 million/year for four year, his ages 32-35.

Despite what Pohlad says, we have to let go of the idea that there is a quick fix for what is wrong with this team. Every quick fix just sets back sustainable winning.

[shimrod]

13 minutes ago, Whammy said:

So, if you had a $150M payroll for the Twins, what would you do this offseason? I could try to read between the lines of your post, but I won't assume.

I'll answer this one.

No accomplished FA will choose the Twins absent a massive overpay. The players the Twins need to upgrade the roster will be attractive to better teams as well. 

If the Twins are actually increasing payroll almost 50% (which I doubt happens) they should target trades for established players teams may be willing to move, either because they're getting expensive (for small market teams) or there's a high profile youngster inhouse and ready to fill that position. I don't pay enough attention to the league to know which players make sense. I do know another off-season of paying for Caratinis, Bells, and Frances will not move the needle. Players a tier above that bunch are not coming to Minnesota by choice. 

 

[GNess]

While I don't agree that a culture of scarcity will likely remain dominant for the Twins as many seem to insist to be the case expecting the Twins to outbid the Yankees for Bednar seems even from an optimistic viewpoint a bridge too far.

[NYCTK]

20 minutes ago, shimrod said:

I'll answer this one.

No accomplished FA will choose the Twins absent a massive overpay. The players the Twins need to upgrade the roster will be attractive to better teams as well. 

If the Twins are actually increasing payroll almost 50% (which I doubt happens) they should target trades for established players teams may be willing to move, either because they're getting expensive (for small market teams) or there's a high profile youngster inhouse and ready to fill that position. I don't pay enough attention to the league to know which players make sense. I do know another off-season of paying for Caratinis, Bells, and Frances will not move the needle. Players a tier above that bunch are not coming to Minnesota by choice. 

 

I'll go further...

Given the payroll we saw in 2022 and 2023 we can safely assume the Pohlads can easily sustain a payroll not of $150, but of $190 Million. 

This is basically in line with what the Angels and Royals spent this season, at the 17th and 18th largest payrolls. 

So, can the Twins afford a $15-$20 million reliever on a $190m payroll? Yes, yes they can. And quite easily in fact. 

 

[MackMan]

What I am afraid of, especially this offseason with the impending lockout and the poor FA class, that the Twins are going to put their hat into to many rings. What I mean is send competitive, but not top competitive offers to the FA's their targeting. For example, it would be the same as when Yu Darvish was a FA and we made a competitive offer by being in the top 5, but still weren't near the top offer. I don't want to have that type of offseason again where we all get our hopes up because we've target top talent, but don't sit inside their top 2-3 choices. 

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, Whammy said:

So, if you had a $150M payroll for the Twins, what would you do this offseason? I could try to read between the lines of your post, but I won't assume.

1) Extensions for Keaschall, Bradley, Jenkins and Culpepper. 
2) Sign a free agent second baseman (Arraez, Chisholm or Lowe)

3) Acquire a solid defensive catcher

4) Spend the rest on the bullpen (two or three pitchers)

They would probably have $10-15M left to spend on those two or three relievers.

[SE23]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

1) Extensions for Keaschall, Bradley, Jenkins and Culpepper. 
2) Sign a free agent second baseman (Arraez, Chisholm or Lowe)

3) Acquire a solid defensive catcher

4) Spend the rest on the bullpen (two or three pitchers)

They would probably have $10-15M left to spend on those two or three relievers.

Sound wisdom for a team aiming at 85 wins and a post-season berth. Give me Arraez, Lowe or Xavier Edwards at 2B and Carson Kelly at C.

A couple of mid-tier relievers with upside and a solid starter would be icing on the cake.

[TheLeviathan]

I've been casually spit-balling an offseason plan and Bednar is also atop my list.  I think you're going to have to push closer to 20M (CBA pending) to land him, but the truth is that this is a smart move no matter how 2027 plays out.

If you're surprise contending?  Awesome, you added a really good closer to your team.

You're still in rebuild phase?  Awesome, you've got a nice asset to sell at the deadline.

This is how teams who aren't sure about themselves operate with budget room.  Invest with best case scenario in mind, but on players that will still yield value if things go south as a team.  Read: not Josh Bell.  

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Bednar is for a World Series contender not a rebuilding small market team. His price tag would handcuff the Twins roster. Remember Arod in Texas. Twins need to build their bull pen from within via trades , draft & free agent castoffs. Twins need players who have not reached their peak not over priced players who have their peaks in the rear view mirror. We need future All Stars not ex All Stars. Twins FO  need to be better Stewards of payroll for future success.   

I'm generally not a fan of overpaying for relievers but the whole point of a cheap young roster is that it gives you the luxury of doing things like this. The Twins have one player slated to make more than $15M next year, and almost nothing on the books thereafter.

If the attitude is "Twins need players who have not reached their peak not over priced players who have their peaks in the rear view mirror," then you're just saying you don't want to to spend money or significantly pursue free agency. Those players are already here; you build around them with complementary veterans.

[PuckettPond]

2 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I'm generally not a fan of overpaying for relievers but the whole point of a cheap young roster is that it gives you the luxury of doing things like this. The Twins have one player slated to make more than $15M next year, and almost nothing on the books thereafter.

If the attitude is "Twins need players who have not reached their peak not over priced players who have their peaks in the rear view mirror," then you're just saying you don't want to to spend money or significantly pursue free agency. Those players are already here; you build around them with complementary veterans.

It's too early for that as the Twins need a few more seasons to reach the point of paying for veterans pushing them into World series contention. 

[D.C Twins]

Magic 8 Ball says "The Twins will report that they were sooooooooooo close with a suuuuuper competitive offer but unfortunately it did not work out...(They tried reaaaaalllly hard though!)"

[Nick Nelson]

10 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

It's too early for that as the Twins need a few more seasons to reach the point of paying for veterans pushing them into World series contention. 

I'm not on board with this at all personally. It's the kind of kicking-the-can that just makes excuses for ownership to not spend or try. There's no reason they shouldn't be pushing while the young building blocks are here and cheap, and Buxton, Lopez and Ryan are still on the roster. 

[Whammy]

54 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I've been casually spit-balling an offseason plan and Bednar is also atop my list.  I think you're going to have to push closer to 20M (CBA pending) to land him, but the truth is that this is a smart move no matter how 2027 plays out.

If you're surprise contending?  Awesome, you added a really good closer to your team.

You're still in rebuild phase?  Awesome, you've got a nice asset to sell at the deadline.

This is how teams who aren't sure about themselves operate with budget room.  Invest with best case scenario in mind, but on players that will still yield value if things go south as a team.  Read: not Josh Bell.  

I wonder if there's a data-driven sweet spot for this type of "playing both sides of the fence" (for lack of a better word).

Here's what I mean...

Josh Bell - Perfectly fine player. Extremely movable at the deadline, but always on a 1 year deal and isn't going to excite another GM enough to give you anything all that interesting in return.

-- Other end of the Spectrum --

Carlos Correa (a couple years ago) - Could be a very impactful FA signing, but the moment he signs that contract he gets very tough to move. Not only does the AAV scare away some teams, but the contract length does as well. And in the end, if you feel like you need to move him, you may end up eating some money, which is obviously not ideal

The sweet spot is probably different for the different player groups

Position player - 2 years/14M AAV. Usually going to be a good (not GREAT) player that can help any team looking to add at the deadline. The remaining amount in year 1 isn't too bad and if you're worried about that 14M in year 2, you can probably convince yourself that you can move him in the offseason

Starting Pitcher - 3 years/18M AAV. Probably slotted in as a #3 starter for an average team. Nothing wrong with that. Maybe he outperforms that a little bit and you can trade him for a really strong package if needed, or maybe he just performs OK and you are able to move off of him for a marginal prospect, but importantly, not have eat any money. The new team can probably convince themselves they can get him back to that 3/54M form. If you need to hang onto him for another year, now you're got a SP at 2/36 that can either be moved in the offseason or flipped next deadline when he will probably still be viewed as a valuable asset. That third year for a SP is probably viewed as a positive as opposed to a position player or a RP

Relief Pitcher - 2 years/8M AAV. Can be traded to any team at that price. And every team can use more relief pitching if they feel like they are contending. Relief pitchers are so volatile that maybe he has a awesome first half and isn't view as some teams closer, but can be plugged in at 2nd or 3rd in their hierarchy. Teams will give up an OK prospect for that. Jeff Hoffman is a little more expensive than this, but we gave up pretty decent stuff for him. Not just some marginal lottery ticket

[PuckettPond]

22 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I'm not on board with this at all personally. It's the kind of kicking-the-can that just makes excuses for ownership to not spend or try. There's no reason they shouldn't be pushing while the young building blocks are here and cheap, and Buxton, Lopez and Ryan are still on the roster. 

Those 3 will not be on the team in 2029,  trade the 2 pitchers for talent for the 2029 push and wait out Buxton's contract. Fans understand when a small market team is building for the future they get upset when they see worthless half measures. 1985, 1986 brought fans 1987.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Adding Bednar might get them to the 80 win threshold next season. They have 99 problems and a closer is only one of them.

Good thing they aren’t limited to only one offseason transaction then

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Good thing they aren’t limited to only one offseason transaction then

They will be if they blow the whole budget on Bednar.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They will be if they blow the whole budget on Bednar.

I can’t imagine Bednar will take up even 10% of a teams budget. If they are signing him, they are making other moves. And you have to spend in free agency no?

Or even if it is 10%, or even if he gets paid per year more than Buxton does, how would that cripple other moves they make? It’s certainly not money the Pohlads don’t have available. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can’t imagine Bednar will take up even 10% of a teams budget. If they are signing him, they are making other moves. And you have to spend in free agency no?

Spend in free agency on the areas where the value is highest and the downside risk is lowest. That’s a position player, not a closer. The Twins need to be developing relievers, not buying them at retail prices.

The top reliever contracts are nearly all disasters: Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Tyler Rogers, Jordan Hicks, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Pete Fairbanks, Carlos Estevez.

Small budget teams shouldn’t pay $15M for 50 innings of baseball.

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Spend in free agency on the areas where the value is highest and the downside risk is lowest. That’s a position player, not a closer. The Twins need to be developing relievers, not buying them at retail prices.

The top reliever contracts are nearly all disasters: Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Tyler Rogers, Jordan Hicks, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Pete Fairbanks, Carlos Estevez.

Small budget teams shouldn’t pay $15M for 50 innings of baseball.

I agree with you in theory. But they can and should make other moves to help the team also. 
Year to year relievers generally are fickle though in terms of production. I agree with that.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Yes. Been saying David Bednar across this site for a while now. He is the absolute best fit for this team and helps raise the ceiling considerably. The BP becomes much deeper with him. Hoffman can take the 8th inning and we have a bunch of guys to fill out the rest of the pen. 

Gotta make it happen.