Re-Grading the Twins’ 2026 Trade Deadline Moves

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

Leading up to the 2026 trade deadline, there was plenty of speculation about what the Twins would do. Ultimately, they wound up being buyers, adding four arms to the pitching staff in an effort to make a playoff push. Unfortunately, the Twins fell short and were eliminated over the weekend. But that’s not necessarily because of the moves they made at the deadline. Most of the players they acquired have actually performed pretty well since arriving in Minnesota, and several of them will remain with the team beyond this season. So now that we’re reaching the end of the season, let’s go back and re-grade each of the Twins’ deadline moves, to see how they look with the benefit of hindsight.

Twins receive: RHP Tommy Nance
Blue Jays receive: C Ryan Sprock
Trade Grade: B

Nance was the first addition the Twins made at the deadline, and for a while, this was looking like a complete steal. After arriving from Toronto, Nance put together an excellent month of August. He finished the month with a 1.74 ERA over 10 1/3 innings, striking out 14 batters while walking just two. 

That looked like exactly what the Twins needed from a bullpen addition. Minnesota had struggled mightily in the first half of the season, but the bullpen turned things around in a major way, and Nance quickly looked like another reliable option. But then September rolled around.

He currently owns an 8.64 ERA over 8 1/3 innings this month, and his sudden collapse has felt pretty fitting with the rest of the team. After looking like one of the better relievers in the bullpen, he's struggled to sustain those results down the stretch. Still, I’m going to give this move a B. Nance has multiple years of team control remaining, and if his August numbers are any indication, he’s capable of helping this team. One bad month shouldn’t completely erase what he showed earlier in the season.

The Twins also have plenty of catching talent in the minor leagues. While Sprock could certainly turn into something down the road, I’ll take the proven arm with multiple years of control (even if the volatility of relievers of his quality and his age make it unlikely that he sticks around for long).

Twins receive: LHP A.J. Minter
Mets receive: INF Billy Amick and INF Bruin Agbayani
Trade Grade: C

The A.J. Minter trade is the one that looks the worst with the benefit of hindsight. Minter was acquired from the Mets in exchange for Billy Amick and Bruin Agbayani, and while I liked the thought process behind the move at the time, it was a deal focused on a goal the team didn't even approximate.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but Minter is a free agent after this season. Maybe the Twins bring him back; maybe they don’t. But they traded two infielders with some upside for an aging bullpen arm, while still falling short of the postseason.

To be fair, Minter hasn’t been bad. He currently owns a 2.70 ERA with the Twins, giving Minnesota exactly what it hoped to get from him when the trade was made. He's been a reliable left-handed option in the bullpen and addressed an obvious need at the time. The problem is what happens next. If the Twins want Minter back in 2027, they’re going to have to pay him. If they don’t bring him back, Minnesota will have traded two prospects for (essentially) two months of a middle reliever.

Amick and Agbayani both have plenty to prove, but they also have upside. That makes it tougher to look at this deal favorably now than it was when the Twins were still fighting for a playoff spot.

Twins receive: RHP Dean Kremer
Orioles receive: OF Jhomnardo Reyes
Trade Grade: A-

Kremer had really struggled in Baltimore this year, posting a 6.50 ERA before the trade. Since joining the Twins, however, that number has dropped to 3.80, and he has a 3.82 FIP to go along with it. One of the biggest differences has been his ability to limit hard contact. Kremer has significantly cut back on the amount of hard contact he allows, and the results have followed.

The other major factor here is his contract situation. Unlike Minter, Kremer isn’t a rental. He’s under team control for next season as well, meaning (assuming that they tender him a contract and pay him the $7-8 million he's in line to earn) the Twins will have a legitimate starting pitcher who can stabilize the back end of the rotation beyond 2026. That could be especially valuable for a team that has dealt with so many pitching injuries in recent years.

The Twins gave up outfield prospect Jhomnardo Reyes in exchange for Kremer. He’s only 18 years old, so it’s far too early to know what he’ll become. There’s definitely a chance Reyes turns into something for Baltimore. But when comparing what an 18-year-old prospect could become to what Kremer has already shown he can provide at the major-league level, I’ll take the back-end starter in this deal.

Twins receive: RHP Jeff Hoffman
Blue Jays receive: LHP Dasan Hill, RHP John Klein and INF Dameury Pena
Trade Grade: B+

The Jeff Hoffman trade was the final move the Twins made at the deadline, and it was also the most expensive deal they made. But Hoffman has been excellent. He currently owns a 2.12 ERA and a 1.98 FIP across 17 innings as a Twin, along with a staggering 26 strikeouts and 10 walks. He has quickly established himself as one of Minnesota’s most reliable late-inning options. He's also under contract beyond this season. The Twins didn’t just acquire a reliever who could help them for two months. They added someone who should continue to be part of their bullpen in 2027.

I don’t love giving up Dasan Hill. It’s rare to find left-handed starters with his ability, and there’s certainly a chance he turns into a valuable major-league pitcher. There are also some kinks Toronto will have to work out with him, particularly when it comes to his command. The same thing goes for John Klein and Dameury Pena, the other two prospects the Twins gave up in the deal. All three have some level of upside, and it’s always difficult to know how those prospects will develop once they leave the organization.

But I’ll take the proven, controllable late-inning reliever with filthy stuff over what could be with the three prospects. Hoffman has already shown exactly what he can do in Minnesota, and the Twins still get him beyond this season.

The Twins ultimately fell short of the postseason, but that doesn’t mean every trade they made at the deadline was a mistake. Three of the four players they acquired are likely to be back next season, and all four have shown something that could make them useful pieces moving forward. That the team fell short is not the fault of the new arrivals, and realistically, there was little more the front office could have done at the deadline to position themselves for success.

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[LastOnePicked]

Here's one question I have: if the the MLB work stoppage lasts as long as some suspect, will that impact players in their thirties? Hoffman is 33 now. It's possible he won't pitch again for the Twins until he's 35. Does body age matter for ballplayers, or will a year free from big league wear-and-tear leave them pretty refreshed and in much the same place that they left off?

[bean5302]

Can't grade the individual components without the objective. At the time I was convinced the Twins needed to acquire a playoff caliber rotation arm, and probably needed a RH bat.

Got neither. It was a half effort and the Twins didn't make the playoffs. Is what it is. An F. Either go all in or don't waste resources.

Tom Pohlad said he's a decisive owner. Zoll's changes were not decisive, they were fairly leveraged.

[bjorks]

It impacts everyone, but baseball more so than maybe any other sport carries a one-for-all, all-for-one motto. Guys will gladly give up a (potential) year or partial year if it's for the betterment of the players. Injuries are just accepted and I think the stoppage does more damage to guys on the 40-man who haven't established themselves quite yet, which feels like 1/3 of our team. 

[MeleMouth]

The whole thing was an "F." Any other grade misses the forest for the trees.

[nicksaviking]

Kremer has pitched better than expected, but I think his extra year is actually a bad thing as far as the Twins trying to put together a better team next year. 

If they want to be serious about a post season run, isn't the best rotation, Ryan, Lopez, Bradley plus a bone fide front line starter as good or better than these guys? Then fill the back of the rotation with one of the numerous higher upside internal arms like Preilipp, Rojas or Abel? 

With Kremer now locked in, now the front office will once again be tempted to give Kremer the spot while the higher upside talent is sitting in St. Paul, OR they'll say, 'Eh, we have enough starters, lets trade Ryan or Lopez' which would then make the rotation worse.

Just about all of these trades were just another example of this team constantly looking to improve the bottom of the roster instead of looking to improve the top. The in-house options are supposed to fill in the bottom of the roster and take the jobs of the below average players already on it, trades and free agents need to fill in the top. 

[terrydactyls]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Can't grade the individual components without the objective. At the time I was convinced the Twins needed to acquire a playoff caliber rotation arm, and probably needed a RH bat.

Got neither. It was a half effort and the Twins didn't make the playoffs. Is what it is. An F. Either go all in or don't waste resources.

Tom Pohlad said he's a decisive owner. Zoll's changes were not decisive, they were fairly leveraged.

I think you may be confusing the value of each trade with the stupidity of thinking that the Twins were a playoff-bound team.  Looking at each trade as a standalone entity, they aren't that bad (as Sam pointed out).  The value lost by not trading Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, and Bell (if anyone wanted them) is the what makes the trades look bad.

[Chad93]

When the Twins traded away half the roster last trade deadline you signaled a rebuild and now this year you buy at the deadline when you aren't even at .500 just show's how lost this organization is 

[strumdatjag]

I’m in agreement.   Now rate the moves the Twins did NOT make (Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach).   That won’t look as good.  

[PuckettPond]

Selling would have been better for everyone. What is the Twins 3 year plan, do they have one? Besides players what do the Twins need to be better? Baseball is losing fans, Twins are not on major streaming services "out of sight out of mind" they shorten the draft to 20 rounds now talk of going to 12 rounds. Actions of a failing business. Gym class soccer has more fans in the stands.

[jmlease1]

I liked the Minter trade at the time and I still like it; neither prospect projects all that well. While I was rooting for Amick, he's got serious contact issues. (a good couple of weeks in AA for the Mets got the hype train moving for their fanbase...with the promotion to AAA is back to missing a lot and hoping to run into a homer. To be fair, he does keep hitting them, but is he a serious candidate to play 1B for them next season? No. Maybe he can keep making adjustments but he's still not profiling to do more than get a cup of coffee in MLB)

Re-signing Minter would be great for the Twins, and hopefully his price is reasonable enough. Seems unlikely that he's getting another multi-year deal at his age and with his injury history, but he can still get guys out so we'll see what the market looks like. Would happily take him on a $6-8M deal, but who knows what the market will look like for him.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I don't think its fair to call the Twins FO "lost". They started a rebuild at the 2025 trade deadline and have really continued that this year. They were basically a .500 team at the time they made the last three of the four trades, tied the last wild card spot, and 4 games out of the AL Central lead. They'd also just finished a very strong July. I don't think the FO expected to contend much in 2026 and then saw an opportunity so they made the trades for a backend starter and bullpen pieces, three of whom were controllable in 2027 when I think they hope to contend.  In other words, they saw an opening and decided to go for. In retrospect, it was the wrong decision the way things played out with the offense and starting pitching collapsing but it was a perfectly defensible decision at the time. They have continued to play young players, called up some who they expect to be on the team in 2027, and are in the process of basically turning over two thirds of the roster. This is a classic rebuild.

The Twins FO isn't "lost" in the sense of their fumbling around without a plan. We can debate whether it's a good plan or the right plan, but it's pretty clear they have a plan to rebuild the team by turning over 60 – 75% of the roster. I expect that to continue in the off-season. I think Ryan will be traded, Bell will go somewhere else, and Larnach will either be traded or non-tendered. I think they will give Jeffers the QO and try to re-sign him (and fail), and I think there is a very good chance that Lopez gets an extension that keeps him here at least two or three more years after 2027. If you look at the roster, they will start next year with new players who have been with the team less than three years at SS, 3B, LF, RF, DH, and 2B. I think there is at least a 50-50 shot that they trade Lewis, which would add 1B to the list. If you look at their starting lineup opening day 2025 compared to what we expect 2027, they have different starters and different reserves at every position except for Buxton in CF and maybe Jeffers at C. They will have at least two starting pitchers with less than three full years of experience, probably three, plus Bradley was not with the team until last year. The bullpen has completely turned over with at least six of the eight spots to be occupied by players who have been with the team a year and 1/2 or less. 

I think if you compare the 2024 or 2025 starting roster with the 2027 starting roster, you will find at least 60-75% change and it may be more. There may be as few as 5 or 6 players that were on the opening day roster in 2024 or 2025 that will be on the opening day roster in 2027. Will they be any better? Who knows. What we do know is that the Twins decided during 2025 that the team wasn't good enough to contend, decided to do a tear down and rebuild, and next year will be the year when we see if that strategy starts to show signs of success. We won't know for sure until 2028 after guys like Jenkins, Rodriguez, Prielipp, Morris, Gomez, Culpepper, etc. have gotten some real experience. Some of us may not like what they've done, we may complain about particular moves, but I don't think it's fair to say that the Twins are in any way "lost". They have a plan and they are executing it. We'll find out if it's a good plan or well executed the next two years.

[old nurse]

Upside means there is talent there that just isn’t happening. So you keep upside and hope they don’t turn into Balazovic or trade it and hope the upside on your mlb roster works? Hindsight they king of patched the bullpen, but the upside on the roster was lacking

[Brandon]

The Buxton injury killed our post season hopes.  The trades for these pitchers gave us extra time with hope.  My grades for the trades. 

Minter was an A.  Billy Amick is not going to be a starter here.  He could be a bench player or platoon bat maybe.  He is a 3 outcome hitter.  Agbayani is only interesting because of his father and more so for the Mets.  We got a top notch lefty reliever.  He gave us best possible outcome.  I hope he liked it here and we resign him for the pen next year.  

Nance is a A-.  We gave up a 21 year old A Ball C at Fort Myers.  We have plenty of A ball C now.  Nance would be an A or A+ but he had some moments that didn't go his way.  

Kremer surprised and pitched way better than expected.  He is either a trade candidate or back of rotation arm for next season.  Either way it's a good value for an 18 year old prospect with a high upside.  He seems on track for the majors at some point.  But good starting pitching is hard to find.  B+/ A- 

Hoffman trade is a bear to grade.  He pitched great and we have him for next season with 4 million of his 11 million salary paid by Toronto.  However, Dasan's control was vastly improved with Toronto If he makes it up and becomes a star, what a deal for Toronto.  I am not sure where to grade this one.  On one hand a A-  for the creativity and he is back with us next year for .65 cents on the dollar..  On another, Toronto had Dasan was pitching closer to what we were hoping for which makes this trade an incomplete. Since The odds of Dasan becoming a top of rotation arm are still pretty low, I think a B-/C+ is in order until we have more certainty how good Dasan will be.

[Sampson5]

Thing I don't get about hoffman is why it took so much to get why if you were giving up 3 prospects feel like the pitchers should of been a lower level arm not our #1 or #2 if you think quick passed him on top on a decent reliever , young infield prospect. Feels like if you gave up hill should of been a straight swap maybe they had to overpay to outbid other teams . It's worked out well so far but still think at some point hill makes the deal look bad he's the only piece id be worried about moving out of everyone twins moved reyes is a guy I enjoyed but hard to know what he will be when he's so far away 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I think you may be confusing the value of each trade with the stupidity of thinking that the Twins were a playoff-bound team.  Looking at each trade as a standalone entity, they aren't that bad (as Sam pointed out).  The value lost by not trading Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, and Bell (if anyone wanted them) is the what makes the trades look bad.

What you're advocating is trading for things which add no value and fill no need.

You need to get to the airport to catch your flight. Instead of calling an Uber to bring you to the airport, you request an Uber to bring you a sandwich. The sandwich was tasty. You miss your flight. In your world, the sandwich was a good trade.

[Mike Sixel]

F in context of the actual talent level of the roster. They should have sold, not bought. F is the only realistic grade for buying. 

Kremer is a number four or five starter. All he's going to do is stop them from pitching a guy with real upside. He's a floor move, not ceiling. But this is the best trade by far. 

[Nashvilletwin]

As a result of these trades are the Twins better positioned to compete in ‘28?  Will any of the players acquired or the key assets kept bring any value post next year’s strike shortened season?  The answer to both questions is assuredly no.

Therefore, regardless of the individual trade grades, the overall grade is a solid F.

Embracing delusion and short-term PR gains at the expense of building a true competitive team is precisely why the Twins under Tough Talking Tom and his minion JZ will never field a winner.  Sad, but true. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

As a result of these trades are the Twins better positioned to compete in ‘28?  Will any of the players acquired or the key assets kept bring any value post next year’s strike shortened season?  The answer to both questions is assuredly no.

Therefore, regardless of the individual trade grades, the overall grade is a solid F.

Embracing delusion and short-term PR gains at the expense of building a true competitive team is precisely why the Twins under Tough Talking Tom and his minion JZ will never field a winner.  Sad, but true. 

Also, they got zero PR gains ..... If anything, it confirmed to people they aren't close, because they added and got worse.