The Twins Don't Need a Full Rebuild. They Need a Direction.

[S Bart]

[Eris]

I think the Twins have their direction it is now a matter of how well they can perform. Counting WAR. Can Lee, Culpepper, Keaschall and Clemens maintain current levels of production. If Yes then 10 - 12 WAR. Does Buxton comeback healthy. If yes, 2.5 to 4 WAR. Therefore between LF, 1B part time CF and C they will need about 8 - 10 WAR. Rodriguez looks legit. I could see him playing at RoY levels (3 WAR).  As things currently stand I would anticipate Ceratini and Lewis producing 1.5 to 2 WAR each. That gives 17 to 21 WAR. That math is a little fuzzy. People may notice I have not included a DH as I am expecting Keaschall and Buxton to occupy the DH. Which leaves room for Jenkins. In summary, if Culpepper, Rodriguez and Jenkins are all chasing RoY and put up 3 WAR each and if Buxton is healthy and gets to 3 WAR the Twins will be very competitive. The question is it realistic to expect that as outcome. Probably not, Twins fans are seldom that lucky and the previous core from 2023 flamed out faster than a falling meteorite. 
 

To be realistically competitive the Twins will need to add about 5 WAR by upgrading 2 positions. As things currently stand 1B and C are the most in need of upgrades. Maybe we really need to resign Jeffers. As pointed out on a different thread there are plenty of free agent 2B. 

[Coach]

1 minute ago, JCT66 said:

I agree with you on Clemens. But I  want Clemens playing 2nd base.  Sad to say, I think it’s time to move on from Royce and I want ownership to spend real money next season to bring in a big bat at first base. 

I was kind of projecting for when Houston takes SS and Culpepper 2B. I want to see that out of spring training. That will be a strong infield. I hate the mid-season call-up (which never happens, and if it does, they aren't ready).  Strong out of the gate, and if it doesn't work, back to St. Paul.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think there is a way to look at this systematically and get to the conclusion that while we have the complementary pieces, we're missing the tentpole pieces necessary to be the true contender. If you start with what I think is a realistic premise that Larnach and Ryan will be traded in the off-season and will at most it bring back one capable MLB bat that could potentially hit the middle of the order, there really isn't a lot of ambiguity. The only question marks are will we re-sign Lopez, who I sense wants to stay and would thus be within budget, and will Jeffers somehow re-sign with the team. I think the latter is unlikely but I still hold out hope. Now you know what you have and you can figure out the rest. Here's what we have:

Lineup - we have 1-3 hole hitters in Keaschall, Buxton, and maybe Culpepper, 6 and 7 hole hitters in Lee and Clemens, and some young guys who can fill out the backend of the lineup. What we don't have our two legitimate middle of the order bats that can hit 4 and 5. Maybe we can get one out of a Ryan trade or re-sign Jeffers for one of those spots but we don't have those guys on the roster at the moment. We have openings at 1B, C, DH, and possibly LF. 

Starters - We have good candidates for spots 2-5 in a solid rotation and at least a little depth. We do not have a number one starter whether or not Ryan stays (he's more of a solid 2/strong 3) and I think Ryan is gone anyway. I'm hoping we use a trade of him to either fill one of the holes in the lineup or augment the bullpen.

Bullpen - We have three pretty good late inning options, four if Minter comes back, and a couple of decent middle inning guys. We also have a lot of young arms that could potentially be somewhere in the 6 – 8 spots in a good bullpen and could graduate over the course of the year to a higher spot. Same thing here though; we need that dominant bullpen arm and we don't have it.

So while I agree we don't need a full rebuild in the sense of getting rid of everybody and starting over, I think were at least 4 guys away from a truly competitive team and we're missing the hardest 4 guys to find - 2 middle of the order bats, a #1 starter, and a dominant late inning arm. We can either try to get those as free agents or in trades, or we can simply go in missing those spots, promote young players and hope they develop over 2027 to fill all or some of those holes for 2028 and then try to fill holes. What we can't do or shouldn't do is what we've done in the past – find average to slightly above average guys, try to stretch them into roles they can't really fill (think Josh Bell as your #4 hitter, or Gomez as your dominant closer), all in an attempt to win 80 – 85 games and sneak into the playoffs. That's just a recipe continued mediocrity, rinse and repeat.

My view is we pick the "rebuild" Lane, not the "reload" Lane. That means trading Larnach, re–signing one of Lopez and Ryan and trading the other for hopefully a strong bat, and promoting younger players at the expense of averageish veterans. To me that means you can't keep both Ober and Kremer, keep one at most, play Keaschall, Lee, and Culpepper every day, and keep at least one of EmRod, Jenkins and Roden playing every day. Choose two of Prielipp, Matthews, Abel and Rojas to be the #4 and #5 starters behind Lopez, Bradley and Ober or Kremer, and I would think about transitioning one of them into the bullpen along with Festa if he's healthy unless we can pick up some good relievers. I'd advocate playing one of the young catching prospects but I just don't think anyone will be ready until late 2027 at the earliest.

I think next year is for taking the next step, but that next step doesn't really mean true contention. It really means being competitive within a fairly weak division and possibly competitive for a backend playoff spot as you build towards an contention window in hopefully 2028 – 2030.

[MeleMouth]

19 minutes ago, JCT66 said:

This is the 2nd post I’ve seen stating tha a winning team needs 4 to 5 4+ WAR players. Where are you getting that stat?  I can’t find any teams single team in 2026 with 4 players with 4 + WAR on FanGraphs. The Brewers, Braves, and Dodgers all have 3 players that will finish the season with over 4 WAR. The Rays have 2.  The Guardians have 1.  
 

We need the talent we have to play to its potential. We need to hang on to our higher end starting pitchers, we need to add to the Bullpen, solve our situation at catcher and add a big bat at 1st Base.  If we do that I think we would be very competitive in 2027. 

Maybe that was unclear: you need four or five players with that talent level because not all will make it in the same year. You can't have three players with 4 WAR talent and expect all three to make it in the same year.

Also, just having three players with 4 WAR won't get you there. Among your three WAR players, one needs to be great. For example, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, which were the team with the worst record to win the World Series in the playoff era, had just three players with at least 4 bWAR, but they were Carpenter at 5.1, Rolen at 5.9, and Pujols all the way at 8.5. Similarly, the 2021 Atlanta Braves, perhaps the "luckiest" team to win the World Series in recent memory, also had just three players with at least 4 bWAR: Fried at 4.2, Freeman at 4.8, and Riley up at 6.3. They also had Acuna, who was definitely a 4 WAR player, but he missed the playoffs with an injury. 2023 Rangers: Garcia at 4.3, plus Semien and Seeger at 7+. 2026 Brewers have Miz and Turang at well over 5 or 6 WAR, plus Chourio at 4, and several above 2.5.

The Dodgers are an exception, because they pay to roster stars just for the playoffs, although they had four last year, including Ohtani at 7.7; four in 2024, including Ohtani at 9.0; and four already this year - Muncy, Pages, Ohtani, and Yamamoto. (Pages has 3.9 fWAR - maybe that's where you came up with 3.) 

Even so, who do you think could be the three 4 WAR players on the Twins next year, including at least one well over 4 WAR? None have even 3 fWAR this year. To expect at least three to make a leap, with one making a really big leap, is hope over experience.

Your last paragraph about talent "playing to it potential", etc., for 2027 could have been written almost word for word in September, 2025. It can be paraphrased as "if everyone plays to their potential and make several additions who also play well, we can be competitive." The problem is that it is rare that everyone plays to their potential and making good additions is really hard, especially for a low-budget team that doesn't have much high-end prospect capital to trade.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't know. I do think he will be better than Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley though.

Right now, we better hope he's at least better than one-time superstar Spencer Strider was after his second UCL. Lopez was never as good as Strider, and Strider, who is younger than Lopez, has been awful this year.

[Andy MacPhail]

We had good players, but we were going in the wrong direction. I wasn't against selling at the '25 deadline, but I was against Falvey heading it. I didn't trust his player evaluation or ability. There were players I wish we kept, Players we obtained we didn't need & if lucky we broke even on trades when we should have made a killing. Our team was gutted. This season there were players, IMO, that should have been traded that we lost out on. I'm always in favor to trade away surplus to strengthen our weak points.

The direction we need to go is focusing on better player evaluation (which leads to better drafting & trades) & development. When was the last time that MIL rebuilt? They don't have to because they know how to run a team. IMO, by shaking up management is the right direction, Can Zoll lead us down the right path? I sincerely hope so. But Tom Pohlad will be the judge of that.

[Glorybound]

57 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can't imagine there is any front office in baseball who truly believes they can win solely with their internal prospects.

With the exception of Banda who have the Twins aquired via trade the last two off seasons that had any long term value?  And Banda might be a stretch to say he qualifies. They didn’t sell at the deadline so now it’s time to pony up during the off season. I said in June it would be GM malpractice not to trade Ryan and Jeffers before the deadline as this team was not a playoff team. The bullpen was not addressed during the offseason after a botched Varland trade. Likely still don’t have a real closer unless Gomez can get to the next level. 

[GNess]

Rebuilding like any other approach requires adept player evaluation and development. prowess for it to be successful.

Promising young players in the system are not projecting as elite or even all star MLB players at this juncture. Perhaps a few may rise above their current projection based on their actual performance in the minors. Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez etc.)

The. team the Twins regularly put on the field in 2025 were gritty and battled, but ultimately proved to be middling at best.

While it's still early the great sell-off of 2025 has brought to the Twins one player having an impact (Bradley). A few have shown promise (Rojas, Abel, Mendez) but are not certain to be significant contributors going forward.

In Duran and Varland alone the Twins gave up two of the better RP in the game in the sell-off as the Twins BP dragged the team down in the first few months of the 2026 season.

The FO has yet to prove they can execute trades in a way that truly moves the needle. 

I acknowledge a rebuild might be the prudent path for a franchise with the limited collection of star potential. 

The assets most suggest need to be moved this offseason include two SP one with an injury concern (Lopez) and another with a 2nd half issue (Ryan), a meh corner OF (Larnach) and who else? Ober? 

So the hope for the future is that a FO leader (GM) and. ownership with an unproven track record are going to turn those three-plus assets into something special. Yikes.

It appears to me no matter where you stand on. rebuild vs direction hope is really the best Twins' fans have right now. It's a tough assessment but fair imho.

 

 

[JCT66]

4 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Maybe that was unclear: you need four or five players with that talent level because not all will make it in the same year. You can't have three players with 4 WAR talent and expect all three to make it in the same year.

Also, just having three players with 4 WAR won't get you there. Among your three WAR players, one needs to be great. For example, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, which were the team with the worst record to win the World Series in the playoff era, had just three players with at least 4 bWAR, but they were Carpenter at 5.1, Rolen at 5.9, and Pujols all the way at 8.5. Similarly, the 2021 Atlanta Braves, perhaps the "luckiest" team to win the World Series in recent memory, also had just three players with at least 4 bWAR: Fried at 4.2, Freeman at 4.8, and Riley up at 6.3. They also had Acuna, who was definitely a 4 WAR player, but he missed the playoffs with an injury. 2023 Rangers: Garcia at 4.3, plus Semien and Seeger at 7+. 2026 Brewers have Miz and Turang at well over 5 or 6 WAR, plus Chourio at 4, and several above 2.5.

The Dodgers are an exception, because they pay to roster stars just for the playoffs, although they had four last year, including Ohtani at 7.7; four in 2024, including Ohtani at 9.0; and four already this year - Muncy, Pages, Ohtani, and Yamamoto. (Pages has 3.9 fWAR - maybe that's where you came up with 3.) 

Even so, who do you think could be the three 4 WAR players on the Twins next year, including at least one well over 4 WAR? None have even 3 fWAR this year. To expect at least three to make a leap, with one making a really big leap, is hope over experience.

Your last paragraph about talent "playing to it potential", etc., for 2027 could have been written almost word for word in September, 2025. It can be paraphrased as "if everyone plays to their potential and make several additions who also play well, we can be competitive." The problem is that it is rare that everyone plays to their potential and making good additions is really hard, especially for a low-budget team that doesn't have much high-end prospect capital to trade.

Well if they only need the potential to reach 4 WAR as opposed to actually do it that becomes a whole lot easier. 
1). Buxton. (He’s already done it 3 times in his career)

2). Lopez, Bradley or Ryan (Ryan did it in 2025) Bradley and Lopez have not but I think in a good year any of these three could reach 4 WAR

3). One of our 3 call ups from this year (if one of Jenkins, Rodriguez, or Culpepper have a 75th percentile outcome I think that’s a 4 WAR season)

4). If they resign Jeffers he won’t hit 4 WAR playing catcher but he could definitely have another all star caliber season which is what we are really talking about. 
5) My big ask for Christmas is a big bat at 1B.  Whoever that guy is could reach 4 WAR

There are a lot of ways this team could have 4 to 5 guys with the potential for 4 plus WAR in a season 

My words on “playing to potential” were poorly chosen.  I meant something like if the majority of our players would play to the 50th percentile or better of their potential in the same year we have enough solid players with enough high ceiling talent to be a competitive team. 

[LastOnePicked]

Tom Pohlad has painted this team into a corner. By keeping Ryan and Lopez past their expiration dates for maximum trade return, the only real value they have left is as solid starters for a contending ballclub.

The trouble is that neither Ryan nor Lopez are aces at this point. Neither is Bradley. Abel, Matthews and Kremer are question marks, and the others on the staff are even bigger question marks.

Hey, it all might click - I can't read the future. If it does, the folks here who are eating crow about wanting to "go for it" in 2026 are going to be serving the same dish to us in late 2027. I'd happily eat it, feathers and all.

But if it doesn't, it sets the team up for a repeated worse case scenario: clearly not good enough to win, but not bad enough to trigger the kinds of deadline trades and draft positions that can help a system add elite future players.

The next thing you know, you're the new Anaheim Angels.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

With the exception of Banda who have the Twins aquired via trade the last two off seasons that had any long term value?  And Banda might be a stretch to say he qualifies. They didn’t sell at the deadline so now it’s time to pony up during the off season. I said in June it would be GM malpractice not to trade Ryan and Jeffers before the deadline as this team was not a playoff team. The bullpen was not addressed during the offseason after a botched Varland trade. Likely still don’t have a real closer unless Gomez can get to the next level. 

Bradley, Ryan, Lopez, Abel, Tait, Clemens, Hoffman, 

[HarmonK03]

Larnach is either going to be non tendered or he will be on the team for the year.  If he gets the projected arb number of $7m to $8m, there is going to be no market for him.  If they decide to move on from him, which I am not against why would you tender him, the opportunity to get anything for him was lost at the trade deadline.

[ewen21]

59 minutes ago, Coach said:

I agree with everything you said, but I will add that Clemens is 2.6 WAR, hit 26 homeruns, led the league till the end of May in 1B defense.  I don't know why everyone leaves him out?

Kody Clemens and his lifetime .279 on base percentage?  He's thirty and we were the first team to play him fairly regularly,  This isn't to disparage the man, but come on now.  His WAR this year at age 30 more than doubles his lifetime WAR prior to this season.

Clemens has been a functional player this year.  I do not think we can have honest expectations for him to be part of some turnaround for this organization.  How's that for leaving him out?

[ewen21]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Bradley, Ryan, Lopez, Abel, Tait, Clemens, Hoffman, 

Define "long term"

[Coach]

3 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

Kody Clemens and his lifetime .279 on base percentage?  He's thirty and we were the first team to play him fairly regularly,  This isn't to disparage the man, but come on now.  His WAR this year at age 30 more than doubles his lifetime WAR prior to this season.

Clemens has been a functional player this year.  I do not think we can have honest expectations for him to be part of some turnaround for this organization.  How's that for leaving him out?

I started to reply, but it was wasting my time.

[SE23]

Add:

Luiz Arraez

Yandy Diaz

Carson Kelly

1 starting pitcher (FA or trade)

1 relief pitcher (FA or trade)

 

[ewen21]

13 minutes ago, Coach said:

I started to reply, but it was wasting my time.

I suppose it is far more expedient and graceful for you to bail out simply by hitting the "disagree" button.   I guess do what you are going to do, but you said you wondered why nobody mentions him.  You feel him to be more noteworthy.  Why not explain why that is?  Nothing I said was wrong, but if you disagree with my belief that he should not be part of some turnaround for this organization I would really like you to offer your perspective. 

 

That is really what is being talked about.  The way forward next year.  Clemens is more of a transitional, stop-gap player to me.

[Eris]

46 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The problem is that it is rare that everyone plays to their potential and making good additions is really hard, especially for a low-budget team that doesn't have much high-end prospect capital to trade.

I would add to this that it is also really hard to upgrade from average to excellent and the Twins have a lot of average players. Take Trevor Larnach and his 2.2 fWAR. His replacement (Rodriguez or Jenkins) would need to have about 3.5 fWAR to make a meaningful difference. There will be about 15 outfielders with more 3.5 fWAR for this season. If either Rodriguez or Jenkins achieves that they will likely be a top contender for RoY. It does happen but it is very unrealistic to expect a prospect to come up and deliver that level of production. 

[bean5302]

39 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Tom Pohlad has painted this team into a corner. By keeping Ryan and Lopez past their expiration dates for maximum trade return, the only real value they have left is as solid starters for a contending ballclub...

Yeah, he's doing a terrible job cleaning the bathrooms in Target Field, too.

Also, I'm shocked he approved Byron Buxton's surgery and IL placement. Guess his last examination must have really been rough.

[Coach]

12 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

I suppose it is far more expedient and graceful for you to bail out simply by hitting the "disagree" button.   I guess do what you are going to do, but you said you wondered why nobody mentions him.  You feel him to be more noteworthy.  Why not explain why that is?  Nothing I said was wrong, but if you disagree with my belief that he should not be part of some turnaround for this organization I would really like you to offer your perspective. 

 

That is really what is being talked about.  The way forward next year.  Clemens is more of a transitional, stop-gap player to me.

I really hate repeating what I had previously written: Cody Clemens should be the first choice within the Twin's organization.  He's under control through 2029, made a base salary of $800K this year, as of the end of May he led all of MLB in Runs Saved at 1B, he's a ballplayer, a good club house guy, and hit for power.

[ewen21]

7 minutes ago, Coach said:

Cody Clemens should be the first choice within the Twin's organization. 

The "first choice within the Twin's organization" FOR WHAT?  What do you even mean with this?  The article says we need to "choose a direction".  So you're saying Kody Clemens ought to be the first choice in choosing a direction?

 

Far out dude

 

 

 

 

[bean5302]

Why there should be some concerns about Lopez.

K rate is rapidly declining which, in combination with his waning ability to generate ground balls means his xFIP is increasing. Furthermore, his xERA is skyrocketing because he's being hit harder and squarer than he was.

On top of that, he's now going to be age 31 coming off a major elbow surgery, and 2025 was a season where he had a shoulder muscle strain along with missed time for a hamstring and then the forearm issue that ended his season 2025.

Lopez looks like a pitcher who is in significant decline both in terms of stuff and health. 

[bean5302]

I think the Twins are in the middle of a total rebuild and haven't even recognized it.

[ewen21]

Although he isn't in the same atmosphere as far as what has been achieved and is much larger than Johan Santana, Pablo Lopez has a career trajectory that is frighteningly similar.

[Cory Engelhardt]

54 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

Define "long term"

Of those players I mentioned, only arguably Hoffman and Clemens won't be here after 2027. That's my opinion., Probably also Ryan.

What do you mean by long term? 2 years? 5 years?

[ewen21]

30 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Of those players I mentioned, only arguably Hoffman and Clemens won't be here after 2027. That's my opinion., Probably also Ryan.

What do you mean by long term? 2 years? 5 years?

Thanks for your response.  

[jimbo92107]

Twins need to shut down Luke Keaschall today, so he can have surgery on his shoulder. He can't throw a baseball overhand right now. We all know what that is. Get it fixed this month, be ready to throw a baseball around spring training. He's too good a player to have a wet noodle arm.

[rv78]

Weren't you listening to Tom? They chose a direction and it was to compete. The current team is what they thought it would take. They even added at the trade deadline. This is what you get when you are incompetant at running a team. Adding has-beens, DFA's and just more average players like (Bell, Caratini, Clemens, Gray, Roden, Jackson, Kreidler, Outman, Arcia, Paredes, Nance, Topa, Orze, Lawrence, Go, Kremer) from other teams won't make you a contender. Having your young core (Lewis, Lee, Martin, Matthews, Prielipp, Morris) be average at best won't get it done. Keaschall is the only consistant hitter in the lineup. Buxton and Jeffers are only in the lineup half the time, Bradley has been the only starting pitcher that gives any consistant chance of a win when any of them take the mound. Ryan collapsed, Ober is a coin flip. SWR is gone. With all of the talk of Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach leaving only means more reliance on the average guys to make improvements to their game, which probably isn't there or we would have seen it by now. Who's going to take the next step and even get close to becoming an All-Star? Because that is what it is going to take. 95% of the roster being average gets you another season like we have now, and I don't see the Owners or the Front Office willing to do what it really takes to take this team to the level it needs to be to really be competive. Watching another failed season only proves to me they don't know what they are doing, or they do and just don't care as long as the fans keep supporting their failed product on the field.

 

Sorry, rant over!

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, HeresWaldo said:

Zebby has had a couple good starts but overall has looked terrible

I'm not a Zebby woofer, but this is a really unfair take.

He's had 22 starts this season.  b-r.com provides a version of Bill James's old "game score" that provides a quick-and-dirty guide to how a starting pitcher did in a game.  Sorting Matthews's starts by this tool, he had 13 starts that are solidly above average.  You can look at the game logs of them below.  You'll see that the Twins won 9 and lost 4 of those games - the losses were 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 and 2-1 - his team's offense let him down completely in those 4 well-pitched losses. 

In the other 9 games, at the bottom of the list in the display, the team managed to go 3-6 because the offense bailed him out three times.  When Zebby is bad, he can be REALLY bad.  But the three absolute worst games look very odd in the one-line summary, as if the manager was hanging him out to dry.  I don't actually think there was malicious intent - in those games, the Twins offense was contributing little (4 runs total by the end of those 3 games) so the braintrust in the dugout may have judged that the game was not likely to be won so the starter might as well eat some more innings if he can (if so, this blew up in their faces all three times), and/or the bullpen was stressed so they didn't want to turn the game over to them any sooner than necessary in a lost cause (5+ innings of shutout relief wouldn't have salvaged these games).  Sometimes a pitcher "wears one" for the team, and I see three such games that dragged his ERA down more than if the manager had come and got him like might be expected on those days his team wasn't hitting.

All in all, he's had more good games than bad, 13-9, That's not easy to do at the major league level, and you certainly don't do it with no talent.  His team has gone 12-10 in his starts, representing a little bad luck, and his official W-L record of 9-10 is even less lucky.  

Again, I'm not apologizing for Zebby - I' m trying to make sense of his season.

In my view, if the coaching staff can unlock something more - something new he can do when a game starts to go bad for him - there's cause for optimism.  If not, then he remains a .500 pitcher, which is not "terrible."

I like averages, but sometimes it pays to look deeper at the underlying data.