Byron Buxton Has Been More Valuable Than You Think to the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Byron Buxton is once again on the injured list. This time, the issue is his hip, and the injury is serious enough that he will require offseason surgery. The Twins have not yet revealed exactly what procedure Buxton will undergo or what the recovery timeline might look like.

Naturally, the injury has led to plenty of familiar conversations among Twins fans. How much longer can the team count on Buxton? Is he being paid too much? Would Minnesota be better off moving on? Those are fair questions. Buxton's injury history is extensive, and the Twins can't simply pretend that availability doesn't matter. 

But there's another side to the conversation that deserves more attention. Buxton has been an incredibly valuable player when he takes the field. And despite the injuries, his current contract has worked out very well for the Twins.

2026 Has Been a Tale of Two Seasons

Buxton was having arguably the best first half of his career in 2026. He launched 25 home runs, posted a .904 OPS and earned a starting spot in the All-Star Game through fan voting. For a player who has spent much of his career fighting to stay healthy, Buxton looked like he was finally putting everything together over a prolonged stretch.

Then things started going sideways around the All-Star break. Buxton has appeared in only 18 games during the second half, and his production has fallen dramatically. He owns a .477 OPS during that stretch, and the hip issue ultimately sent him back to the injured list.

That's the frustrating part of Buxton. The Twins aren't paying for a player who provides average production when healthy. They're paying for one of the most impactful players in the game when he's on the field.

Even with the limited second half, FanGraphs estimates Buxton's 2026 value at $20.9 million. The Twins are paying him $15 million. So, once again, Buxton has provided more value than his salary would suggest. That can be difficult to reconcile when looking at his injury history, but that's exactly what makes his career so interesting.

The Contract Has Worked

When Minnesota signed Buxton to a seven-year, $100 million extension before the 2022 season, there was obvious risk involved. The Twins weren't betting on Buxton staying perfectly healthy. Nobody could reasonably make that assumption. Instead, they were betting that the production he could provide during his healthy stretches would make the contract worthwhile.

So far, that bet has paid off. Buxton made his first All-Star team in 2022 and posted a 133 OPS+ in 92 games. FanGraphs valued that season at $27.3 million. His 2023 season was the clear low point of the contract. Buxton played in just 85 games, struggled offensively with a 97 OPS+ and was limited to DH duties. FanGraphs valued his season at only $4.2 million.

Then he bounced back in 2024. Buxton played more than 100 games for only the second time in his career and posted a 137 OPS+. FanGraphs valued his production at $29.6 million. And then came 2025. Buxton produced arguably the best overall season of his career, posting a 138 OPS+, 4.9 rWAR and tremendous value on both sides of the ball. FanGraphs valued his season at $40.5 million.

Add it all together, and the numbers are pretty remarkable. The Twins have paid Buxton roughly $70 million through the first five seasons of the contract. FanGraphs estimates that he has provided approximately $122.5 million in value over that same span.

That's more than $50 million in surplus value. Obviously, those calculations don't erase the games he has missed. They don't make the injuries less frustrating. They don't guarantee anything about the future. But they do provide some important context. The Twins haven't been overpaying Byron Buxton. In fact, they've gotten a significant discount when he's been healthy enough to play.

The Twins Should Be Thinking Beyond 2028

Buxton is currently under contract for two more seasons. That means the Twins have some time to figure out what comes next, but they shouldn't necessarily wait until the end of his current deal to have that conversation. Buxton has been clear about his desire to finish his career in Minnesota. That's something the Twins should take seriously.

“We’re just really lucky that a player of his talent is that committed to this team, particularly when in recent years, I don’t know that we’ve fully earned that level of loyalty and commitment,” Twins owner Tom Pohlad said. “We’re gonna show him the same level of loyalty and commitment going forward. … You could say that no player is not tradeable, but that’s about as close as it gets. When you have that kind of relationship, some things have got to be bigger than other things. Buxton’s in that category.”

By the time his current contract expires, Buxton will be entering his age-35 season. That's obviously where the risk becomes even greater. The injuries aren't going to magically disappear because he gets older, and Minnesota shouldn't hand him a massive contract simply because of what he has accomplished in the past.

But that doesn't mean an extension should be off the table. What if the Twins offered Buxton something like $20 million per season with additional performance and award incentives? Adding three or four years could potentially keep him in Minnesota through the remainder of his 30s while protecting the team against some of the risk associated with his availability.

The structure could be particularly important. Instead of simply guaranteeing a massive salary regardless of how often Buxton plays, the Twins could build incentives around games played, plate appearances, awards and performance.

That's similar to the framework that has already worked with his current contract. There are no guarantees with Buxton's body. There aren't supposed to be. The goal isn't to eliminate the risk. It's to structure the contract so the Twins are appropriately compensated if that risk becomes reality.

Let Buxton Finish What He Started

There will always be a segment of the fan base that sees Buxton's injury history and believes the Twins should move on. That's understandable. But there's another question worth asking.

What would Minnesota look like without Byron Buxton? When healthy, he is still capable of changing games with his bat, his defense and his speed. Few players on the roster can impact a game in as many ways.

And while his availability has been inconsistent, the financial results of his current contract tell a different story than the injury list does. Buxton has already provided the Twins with more value than they have paid for.

Now Minnesota has an opportunity to make sure he finishes his career where it began. The Twins shouldn't blindly give Buxton another four-year contract. They shouldn't ignore the injury risk. They shouldn't pretend his age won't matter. But they also shouldn't allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good. If Buxton wants to finish his career in Minnesota, the Twins should explore a creative extension that makes sense for both sides.

Because when Buxton is healthy, he's still one of the most valuable players the Twins have. And if the Twins can find the right way to manage the risk, there is no reason his final chapter can't be written in Minnesota.

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Should the Twins approach Buxton about an extension? Has he lived up to his contract? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[ashbury]

"When Healthy."  The two words that have to preface any discussion of Buxton.

Platooning guys on a lefty-righty basis is something a manager can handle.  Healthy-injured is no way to platoon.

I don't know what could convince me to offer Buxton another guaranteed contract.  And the CBA protects veterans to a degree that I wouldn't be able to do it in good conscience - much as I love Buxton's contributions ... "When Healthy."

[ewen21]

Quote

If Buxton wants to finish his career in Minnesota, the Twins should explore a creative extension that makes sense for both sides.

Why should it be about what he wants?  If they are serious about running the organization it should be about what is best for the Minnesota Twins.  You can't make preset accomodations for players the way the Twins have for Buxton all these years.  When his contract expires he will be heading into his 35 year old season.  These injuries and untimely exits can happen at any time.  Have we learned nothing?

 

People keep romanticizing the idea that he wants to be "a Twin for life" but at this point who cares?  I would be much happier to see a team of young players as with the teams of the early 2000s than to see a team with one "face of the franchise" guy who gets special accommodations.  The reality is, Buxton has just 862 hits to show for his 12 seasons with the Twins.

[thelanges5]

The Twins haven’t had adequate Buxton insurance since 2023. They had MAT and that worked out pretty well. This is another part of where not spending payroll hurts them depth wise. Look at guys like Snell and Glasnow. They pitch to begin the season, they pitch to end the season and playoffs, and spend the middle of the season on the IL. Maybe this would work with Joe Ryan too?

[PuckettPond]

No extension just a watch & retirement party. Twins future success does not include Buxton.

[Mike Sixel]

Extension? Utterly mad idea. Wow. 

You need four starting OF on the roster if he's one. But that fourth might not play much for long stretches. 

Buxton is an amazing player, when he's healthy. But they've been unwilling to IL him right away. They bring him back early because he's a veteran. I'm not sure how people think it's realistic for most teams to plan for their star to be hurt half the year. This isn't a pitcher....

[D.C Twins]

Huge fan of Buck, Buuuuuuuuut..... 

20 mil/yr for age 35+ Buck is a dash of ludicrous sprinkled on a large helping of silly. 

Buck's current contract has been a win for the Twins even with the injuries. Any extension would most certainly not be.

Both sides can discuss yearly contracts based on his current health status and the team construction when the current contract is done. 

Year to year.... if he can and still wants to play.

[JCT66]

Thanks for writing this. I could not agree more and I get so frustrated with the commenters who seem to willfully misunderstand what you are saying.  You mention a creative extension.  He’s 32 and signed for two more years.  I would argue for a  1 year extension with multiple year options after that. That would keep him signed through age 35 with the possibility to keep him through the end of his career if both sides agree.  now he may not agree to those terms, but I suspect he might given the loyalty he has shown the Twins to date. 

Sure he has been injured a lot, but as your article makes clear he still has provided excess value to the Twins despite his injuries (a lot of excess value).  He remains one of the fastest players in the league.  And he would be a natural candidate to finish his last year or two as a DH given his power.  A creative extension could be done  that would minimize risk while offering an opportunity to an all time Twins great to accomplish what he has repeatedly said he wants.  To finish his career as a Twin. 

[LastOnePicked]

"'We’re just really lucky that a player of his talent is that committed to this team, particularly when in recent years, I don’t know that we’ve fully earned that level of loyalty and commitment,' Twins owner Tom Pohlad said."

I remember reading this from Pohlad. I didn't get it then, and I don't get it now.

The "loyalty and commitment" the Twins owe Buxton is the paycheck they promised him in the contract he signed. Twins management/coaching had never once said anything remotely disparagingly about Buxton's health and its impacts on the team. This fawning over a player who is seemingly too scared to play elsewhere strikes me as really, really odd. If Buxton is driven by a need for championship, then why hasn't he signaled a strong desire for a trade? 

And why would the Twins put a player at the center of their organization who isn't driven by a need for a championship?

I like Buxton a lot. I don't think any of his injuries are personal failings. But I don't want the face of the Twins to be a loyal guy - I want him to be a fierce, able competitor. I think when you fawn all over a veteran who is simply never available in a stretch run, you run the risk of alienating your younger players. I think this is what soured Royce's attitude in 2024.

Going forward, it's fine to tell Buxton he's valued here. But it's also fine to tell him he's no longer the de facto starting CF here.

[Twins 72]

I have no problem having Buck as a veteran guy that elevates the clubhouse and is still productive when he is healthy but he can't be the guy that is relied on to be the main man in the lineup. Next year, someone needs to be the "All Star". If Buck has another first half like this year, it has to be icing on the cake. I would love to see him have a great 2 years to finish his contract. Any extension needs to come after his contract expires. Then you have a true picture of whether that is something the organization should do. I would not extend before that. Too risky for an older player that already can't stay healthy.

[MeleMouth]

As the theme of the article states, Buxton has been a very good player and his current contract has proven to be a great value.

But signing a regularly-injured guy going who is into major hip surgery to an extension two years before from the end of his contract at $20 million a year for his ages 35-38? Sorry for direct criticism, but that is a ridiculous clickbait idea.

Circle back in July 2028 to see how he's doing and what he wants.

 

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

The Twins haven’t had adequate Buxton insurance since 2023. They had MAT and that worked out pretty well. This is another part of where not spending payroll hurts them depth wise. Look at guys like Snell and Glasnow. They pitch to begin the season, they pitch to end the season and playoffs, and spend the middle of the season on the IL. Maybe this would work with Joe Ryan too?

It could work with Ryan, if (1) his ceiling was as high as Snell's and Glasnow's, which isn't the case; and (2) the Twins could afford another $250 million in the budget to carry all of those pitchers, which also isn't the case.

[PDX Twin]

Speed and defense will decline, possibly fast. So what's left? Homeruns perhaps and good hitting overall. But the contract you propose is foolhardy. Too long. Too much. Perhaps 10-15m base and an equal amount based on games played. Just because we can afford it doesn't mean we should. 

What is the opportunity cost? We have a lot of young players whom we hope will be worthy of large contracts. The Twins' revenues only allow a limited number of those. I'd choose to keep the powder dry for the likes of Jenkins, Keashall, Culpepper, Ryan, etc. If they all crash and burn, well, no one's going to be buying tickets anyway so low revenues and low costs. Ugly scenario.

[JBK]

Love Buck.  But he's injury prone.  Put him in position to succeed.  DH.  Corner OF once a week.

[Andy MacPhail]

Quote

"But they also shouldn't allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good."

You hit the nail on the head. Buxton has MVP performances for a half season or more, covering most of his contract. Yeah, it'd be great if Buxton stayed healthy every year but do you know how difficult it is to find a player who can give you that type of performance for part of the year much less for the whole year even less who'd want to make MN home for his career!!!!!????. That is not being realistic. Why do some people want to get rid of Twins players who are dedicated to give their all, sacrificing their bodies for the team? It happens far too often & I don't understand it. Those are the players you want to keep on your team above all.

Yeah, Buck gets hurt more than we like, so we better get better depth. Buck is a great asset besides his offense, defense & baserunning, it's also his character, his leadership, clubhouse presence & his willingness to mentor the younger ones. We don't deserve Buck, we need to find ways to keep him playing for us for as long as we can. He suffered from injured knees a while until they operated. Hopefully this surgery will fix his hip.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I actually think he has been really valuable.

 

This is me only answering the headline :)

[Jacksson]

Buxton's best days are in the past.  His value is diminished when he moves out of CF and into either RF, 1B or DH.  Should have cashed in on his value when the team could.  Now, although value priced and if he consistently is able to take the field in a defensive position, he is just an unreliable, injury prone, old beyond his calendar years, ballplayer whose presence on the roster is gumming up the organization's player pipeline of outfield prospects. 

[Whitey333]

Just another in a lo g line of articles about hoe great Buxton is.  His contract is far from being just team friendly.  He didnt have to sign that deal.  Who forced him?  Besides 100 million is great deal for a part time player.  Hes totally undependable. Extend him? Absolutely not.  Hes only played 2 "full" seasons s out of 10.  And those weren't full seasons.  We all got shortchanged by Byrons injuries.  Especially Byron.  What could have been, at least possibly.  " when he plays" will be his epitath.

[AceWrigley]

Byron Buxton . . . hmmmmm . . . Byron Buxton. Oh yeah, he's that guy that plays centerfield sometimes, right?

[TNtwins85]

7 hours ago, ewen21 said:

Why should it be about what he wants?  If they are serious about running the organization it should be about what is best for the Minnesota Twins.  You can't make preset accomodations for players the way the Twins have for Buxton all these years.  When his contract expires he will be heading into his 35 year old season.  These injuries and untimely exits can happen at any time.  Have we learned nothing?

 

People keep romanticizing the idea that he wants to be "a Twin for life" but at this point who cares?  I would be much happier to see a team of young players as with the teams of the early 2000s than to see a team with one "face of the franchise" guy who gets special accommodations.  The reality is, Buxton has just 862 hits to show for his 12 seasons with the Twins.

Yeah he’s the best player but that’s exactly the problem. You build these teams around a guy who can’t play more than 100 games a season. Maybe you have that in a Jenkins or a Rodriguez but at least not for another season. You’ve gotta put talent around this guy. Another bat that can’t play provide an .800 OPS for a season. They’ve got too many hot/cold guys. When it goes good they’re amazing. When they’re not you’re talking about replacement level guys and they’re not good enough in other parts of the game to make up for shortcomings in the batters box. He’s a good player. But he’s not great. Great players put up the big numbers because they play 130-150 some games a year. You can’t build a team around a guy that’s only on the lineup card 50-65% of the season. 

[jkcarew]

The idolatry for someone who has accomplished so little confuses me. 7 post season PA. Averages a little less than 3 WAR per season. Horrible availability and perennially struggles in leverage. No longer a plus defender in CF. Exiting to watch…immensely talented, doesn’t always translate to valuable.

[HarmonK03]

3 hours ago, Jacksson said:

Buxton's best days are in the past.  His value is diminished when he moves out of CF and into either RF, 1B or DH.  Should have cashed in on his value when the team could.  Now, although value priced and if he consistently is able to take the field in a defensive position, he is just an unreliable, injury prone, old beyond his calendar years, ballplayer whose presence on the roster is gumming up the organization's player pipeline of outfield prospects. 

He's not moving to 1B.

[sweetmusicviola16]

An extension for Buxton now? Absolutely not. If he recovers from the latest and is still useful and fits the teams needs in two years then you can discuss 2029. Not now. How can you get more silly?

 

 

[Brandon]

If Buxton wants to finish his career here, he will likely be the 4th OF in terms of games.played.  probably 10-20 in CF and 60 in RF and 40 DH.  For his age 35 and 36 seasons.  I would only offer a 2 year contract at the end of this one.  I would have agreed with you on your contract proposal before this hip injury.  I think this is his second hip injury.  He will likely retire young.  He might play at 37 and 38 and we can resign him again.  But for his 35 and 36 year old seasons I would sign him to a 10 million base and have incentives at 85 and 120 games played to get to 15 and 20 million and 5 million more with a top 10 MVP vote. Buxton and the Twins can negotiate the details but Buxton should be signed as a 4th OF / DH.

CF has almost always been a strong position for the Twins since I started following them at age 12.... Conveniently 1987.  We had Puckett, Hunter, Span, Buxton and now coming Jenkins.... Also pointing out his one or two decent  seasons of Rich Becker and Otis Nixon in the late 1990's

[LastOnePicked]

7 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

it's also his character, his leadership, clubhouse presence & his willingness to mentor the younger ones.

This is a lovely idea, but how exactly does this seem to be working? Our "younger ones" don't seem to acclimate to the game all that well. The team's repeated collapses wouldn't suggest much of a boost in leadership.

The Twins need to focus on the fundamentals of creating a winner. Then maybe we can start to hand out praise for the intangibles.

[Mike Sixel]

49 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is a lovely idea, but how exactly does this seem to be working? Our "younger ones" don't seem to acclimate to the game all that well. The team's repeated collapses wouldn't suggest much of a boost in leadership.

The Twins need to focus on the fundamentals of creating a winner. Then maybe we can start to hand out praise for the intangibles.

I mean, it hasn't worked at all, given their performance. 

[Twins GFP]

Buxton has overplayed his contract in terms of dollars. Can't argue that. Regardless of what anyone says, you can't say with certainty you knew his career would play out the way it has with the injuries. The Twins knew the risks when they signed him and determined that he was worth the value when he was on the field. They were correct. They also tried to mitigate the risks by having capable backups most years.

On a side note, is there any other team that has seen injuries strongly redirect/derail the careers (not just seasons) of so many potential top line players over the last 30ish years?

Koskie
Kubel
Morneau
Mauer
Buxton

You could go further back and add Puckett, Castino, Oliva. I am sure the Twins aren't the only team with a list like this, but these are all all-star level guys. Without going on a deep dive, it feels like a lot...

Gleeman touched on this a few years ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3340279/2022/05/31/twins-top-prospects-injuries/

[bean5302]

Fangraphs has never provided a value for the production of a player. Ever. The site has cautioned against drawing value from WAR for several reasons. Perhaps, most notably, that wins have different value from team to team each season. 1 added WAR means dramatically more to an 85 win team than it does to a 100 win or 60 win team. Furthermore, there's much more value per WAR for a 5 WAR player than a 1 WAR player due to scarcity and limited roster sizes. 1 WAR players grow on trees.

Fangraphs.com has provided a field called value which represents the collective cost in salary for all free agent contracts divided by the production in WAR that season for all the contracts. This represents the average cost of acquiring production similar to what the player produced through free agency. Buxton has never been a free agent.

Buxton's contract is fine at this point. In my opinion, the contract was an overpay by a panicked Falvey when the Twins offered it to him. I remain convinced Buxton would have struggled to get more than a 2 year contract from any other MLB team in free agency, but whatever. On a repeating 1-2 year contract each season, Buxton would have earned more than $15MM a year. In addition to the years, Buxton eats up 2 roster spots. You need 2 starting caliber center fielders to roster Buxton. That's just how it is.

The Twins don't owe Buxton ANYTHING. 

[ewen21]

22 hours ago, JCT66 said:

Thanks for writing this. I could not agree more and I get so frustrated with the commenters who seem to willfully misunderstand what you are saying. 

You are very wrong about that in the case of me.  I cannot speak for others, but I willing to bet those who are against an extension aren't interested in making all sorts of creative accommodations to retain Buxton just so he can fulfill his wish to be a lifetime Twin.

 

I am interested in moving on from the Buxton era.  It is nuts to me that a guy who has 862 lifetime hits in 12 seasons winds up to be our "face of the franchise".  We need to build a roster with youth and hopefully a reasonable amount of depth.  We have had to load manage Buxton with all the complications he presents.