Brooks Lee's Batted-Ball Data Says His Breakout is Fake. Is It?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Brooks Lee’s first few seasons in the major leagues haven’t exactly been what we all hoped for. Across his first 305 big-league games, Lee slashed just .238/.289/.383. For a player whose bat was supposed to be his calling card coming out of the draft, that isn’t the kind of production the Twins were looking for—and he's already slid to third base, where his glove looks good but not great.

There have been flashes, but nothing consistent enough to suggest that Lee was becoming the hitter Minnesota had hoped for. However, something does appear to be changing in 2026. Through 466 plate appearances, Lee is hitting .247 with a .303 on-base percentage. Those numbers certainly aren’t eye-popping, but they represent a noticeable step forward from what we’ve seen during his first two seasons. The biggest area of growth has been his power production. Lee’s slugging percentage is .054 higher than it was a year ago, and he has already established new career highs in doubles, triples and home runs. Pair that with the highest walk rate of his career, and on the surface, it looks like Lee might finally be breaking out. But is he actually doing so?

While Lee’s surface-level numbers are comfortably the best of his young career, the underlying data suggest that the improvement hasn’t necessarily come from him making better contact. In fact, compared to 2025, his quality of contact has regressed. Lee’s average exit velocity has dipped from 88.6 mph to 87.7 mph, while his hard-hit rate has fallen considerably, from 38.5% to 31.7%. His barrel rate (as a share of his batted balls) has also dropped by more than two percentage points. That’s not exactly what you want to see from a hitter whose offensive production is supposedly taking a step forward.

His expected batting average sits at just .224, while his expected slugging percentage is a whopping .095 lower than his actual mark. While Lee’s production on the surface has been as good as ever, he's making less impressive contact. The obvious question, then, is which indicator we should trust. Is Lee breaking out, or just shuffling sideways?

I’m going to say the surface-level numbers carry more weight, for now. Maybe that’s just me trying to be optimistic about a former top prospect who hasn’t quite lived up to expectations yet, but there are legitimate reasons to believe Lee’s improvement is more than just a statistical mirage. For starters, his calling card has always been his hit tool, and that part of his game has taken a step forward this season. Lee’s whiff rate and strikeout rate are both lower than they were a year ago. He’s putting the ball in play more often, and naturally, good things tend to happen when a hitter consistently gives himself a chance to produce. 

No, he isn’t hitting the ball quite as hard as he was a year ago. Yes, his hard-hit and barrel rates have gone backward. But if he’s putting the ball in play more frequently and giving himself more opportunities to find gaps, reach base and take advantage of defensive mistakes, hitting it hard becomes less vital.

There’s also been a pretty clear change in Lee’s overall approach at the plate. He’s pulling the ball more often this season, while also hitting the ball in the air at a higher rate. Those two changes tend to go hand in hand with increased extra-base production, even when the hitter isn’t consistently producing barrels. Lee has been more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone, too. That would suggest his improvement isn’t simply coming from getting lucky on balls in play. There’s intention behind some of the changes he has made at the plate. Even if the resulting contact isn’t always particularly loud, that approach gives him a better chance to turn his natural bat-to-ball ability into actual offensive production.

None of this means Lee is suddenly going to become a superstar. He probably isn’t going to be the type of hitter who puts up 30 home runs in a season. He’s probably never going to rank among the hardest hitters in baseball, either. But that’s alright. He doesn’t need to become that player to have a successful major-league career. He just needs to become the player the Twins thought they were drafting: a smart, fundamentally sound hitter who consistently puts the ball in play and can do enough damage to make pitchers pay.

At 25 years old, there should still be plenty of room for that player to emerge. The numbers underneath Lee’s 2026 breakout are certainly worth monitoring, and if the quality of his contact doesn’t eventually catch up, there’s reason to believe his current production could regress. But for the first time in his young career, there are also signs that Lee is figuring out how to make his skill set work at the major-league level.

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[Parfigliano]

I'm happy with Brooks Lee's progress.

[LambchoP]

He's looked pretty good this year. .250 batting avg with 20HR isn't bad.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Yes, the idea is to have as much power as possible, but it has to be throttled to where the player is still capable of making consistent contact. I, too, am happy if .450 SLG is the ceiling that allows Lee to get on base.

[Brandon]

If Lee hits .250-.275 with 25-30 2Bs and 20 HRs he will be the type of hitter the Twins keep around.  See Cuddyer, Jacques Jones, Hunter, Hrbeck, Gaetti, Bruno, I'm sure there are more, Lawton, Dozeir has too much power here, Koskie maybe.  The Twins like an inexpensive deep lineup with 1 or 2 all-star type hitters.  Lee fits the profile of a low cost high floor guy.

[bean5302]

Over the past 3 years, there is not one of the 204 qualified hitters in MLB who have an xwOBA more than 36pts different than actual.

87% of batters fall into +/- 19pts. 

Brooks Lee over his first 2 seasons? -10pts

Brooks Lee this year? +44pts over expected.

Brooks Lee over his past 20 games? +35pts over expected.

Either he needs to dramatically improve the quality of his hitting or his production is going to utterly tank. He's due for an ice cold streak at this rate.

[LA Vikes Fan]

If I'm reading this right, Lee is making more contact, elevating the ball more, chasing less, whiffing less, and striking out less, while his swing speed is down and he is barreling the ball less often. Wow, that sounds like the profile of a guy whose batting average and OBP are both going to go up and should be expected to go up. A duck snort or seeing eye grounder to the opposite field counts just as much as a line drive single to the pull side. More balls in play, higher BA. Less chase, less whiff, less SOs, higher OBP. Really, the only outlier is the rise in SLG. But then, I realize that a ground ball double down the line counts just as much as a line drive in the gap or shot off the wall and it all starts to make sense. What's happening is he's putting the ball in play more and whiffing less, so he's sacrificing a little power/sting for more contact. Sounds like a positive, not a negative. 

To me, the only outlier here is the HRs. That may be the result of experience. He now knows which balls he can drive, sees them better and takes that shot when its available rather than swinging for the fences all the time. Sounds like a maturing hitter. His HR rate vs. times he swings for HRs is probably up (don't know how you would measure that), he just doesn't swing for the fences as often because he sees the balls he can drive better. 

Look, I love me some analytics but sometimes we put too much weight on small indicators. I'm no engineering whiz, but what I see is a player who now a has enough ABs to recognize how he's being pitched and can react accordingly. Can he be a consistent .270 plus./.325 plus/.450 plus guy with 25 or more HRs a year? Maybe. Is he likely to at least be a .245/.310/.450 guy with around 20 HRs a year? I think he 's showing us the answer is Yes.  The former is a borderline All Star who hits 3, 4,or 5, the latter a solid starting player who hits 5 or 6, lengthens the lineup, and is an important part of a contending team. I'd love the former but I'm very good with the latter and I think that's what Lee is or is very close to becoming.  

[Coach]

53 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Over the past 3 years, there is not one of the 204 qualified hitters in MLB who have an xwOBA more than 36pts different than actual.

87% of batters fall into +/- 19pts. 

Brooks Lee over his first 2 seasons? -10pts

Brooks Lee this year? +44pts over expected.

Brooks Lee over his past 20 games? +35pts over expected.

Either he needs to dramatically improve the quality of his hitting or his production is going to utterly tank. He's due for an ice cold streak at this rate.

Speaking of ice cold, Lee has ice in his veins, coming through in the clutch numerous of times.

[PuckettPond]

Looking forward to this time next year & see how he & his bat improves, develops & grows into 3rd base. Could he be our Mike Schmidt?

[Linus]

His hitting has been getting better ever so slightly year over year. Thats always a good sign. My late father would say about Brooks “he doesn’t get HIS pitch to hit”. Not very analytical on the surface but guys that make a lot of contact have to be good at getting their best pitch because if they don’t there will be way too much soft contact. He’s a perfectly acceptable third baseman- not a lot of spectacular plays but he turns balls that should be outs into outs reliably and there is value in that. If Brooks is your ceiling you aren’t winning any championships but if he is your floor you have a good team. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

Looking forward to this time next year & see how he & his bat improves, develops & grows into 3rd base. Could he be our Mike Schmidt?

I will go out on a limb and take the under on 3 MVPs, 12 all-star appearances, 10 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, and 1 Hall of Fame induction.

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I will go out on a limb and take the under on 3 MVPs, 12 all-star appearances, 10 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, and 1 Hall of Fame induction.

This made me chuckle. 

[PuckettPond]

Quote

 

I will go out on a limb and take the under on 3 MVPs, 12 all-star appearances, 10 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, and 1 Hall of Fame induction.

Quote

 

Mike Schmidt was a great player as his numbers were off the charts. We need more Mikes.

[mnfireman]

He's due for an ice cold streak at this rate

If 1-18 counts, he just ended an ice cold streak a couple of games ago....

 

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

Mike Schmidt was a great player as his numbers were off the charts. We need more Mikes.

Yes. I think every team would argue they "need more" Hall of Famers.

[Stone Temple Twins]

Brooks Lee is just too smart for analytics honestly. As someone who is a stat nerd, I have also noticed his expected stats aren't as good as his surface level stats, but I do think in his case it does not matter. Brooks Lee reminds me of that one guy on your high school baseball team, who bats consistently in the bottom half of the lineup because they have no power (in Brooks Lees case he actually does posess power) but they also never strike out. This allows them to put more balls into play then most other hitters, and putting balls into play leads to a higher batting average, even if the contact is weak or strong. I also think Brooks Lee has perfected the art of "hitting it where they aint". Guys like this tend to have an ability of thinking where to hit the ball in the field, and then hitting it there. In a way he kinda reminds me of Ichiro, just with a little less contact and more power. I think he'll be smart enough to stick around.

[Stone Temple Twins]

3 minutes ago, Stone Temple Twins said:

Brooks Lee is just too smart for analytics honestly. As someone who is a stat nerd, I have also noticed his expected stats aren't as good as his surface level stats, but I do think in his case it does not matter. Brooks Lee reminds me of that one guy on your high school baseball team, who bats consistently in the bottom half of the lineup because they have no power (in Brooks Lees case he actually does posess power) but they also never strike out. This allows them to put more balls into play then most other hitters, and putting balls into play leads to a higher batting average, even if the contact is weak or strong. I also think Brooks Lee has perfected the art of "hitting it where they aint". Guys like this tend to have an ability of thinking where to hit the ball in the field, and then hitting it there. In a way he kinda reminds me of Ichiro, just with a little less contact and more power. I think he'll be smart enough to stick around.

I think the most worrisome part of Brooks Lees game is he chases too much. If he stops chasing that'll lead to his BB% going up and likely every other surface stat.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I will go out on a limb and take the under on 3 MVPs, 12 all-star appearances, 10 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, and 1 Hall of Fame induction.

I’d just be thrilled with “just” a Corey Koskie or Gary Gaetti!

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Stone Temple Twins said:

Brooks Lee is just too smart for analytics honestly. As someone who is a stat nerd, I have also noticed his expected stats aren't as good as his surface level stats, but I do think in his case it does not matter. Brooks Lee reminds me of that one guy on your high school baseball team, who bats consistently in the bottom half of the lineup because they have no power (in Brooks Lees case he actually does posess power) but they also never strike out. This allows them to put more balls into play then most other hitters, and putting balls into play leads to a higher batting average, even if the contact is weak or strong. I also think Brooks Lee has perfected the art of "hitting it where they aint". Guys like this tend to have an ability of thinking where to hit the ball in the field, and then hitting it there. In a way he kinda reminds me of Ichiro, just with a little less contact and more power. I think he'll be smart enough to stick around.

Then why wasn't he too smart for them in the 2 previous seasons?

[Major League Ready]

Several of us have been saying Lee looks like an average player since he was hyped in the minors.  What do you know ... His wRC+ is exactly average and so are his defensive metrics.  He is an average player which is just fine if he is hitting 7th or 8th.  

[Riverbrian]

Brooks has been fine this year but I struggle applying "breakout" to his 2026 performance. 

He has come up big at times in key moments but his production in total has been squarely average and that's OK. 

Hope he keeps improving. 

[chpettit19]

Average bat, too slow and too weak an arm to play SS, is about where I saw his most likely ceiling coming up. I think that's playing out so far. Expected numbers show he's likely maxing out his performance to this point. Maybe he finds a way to be a guy who consistently outperforms what he "should" do. Maybe he goes back down to what the data suggests he should be.

He's a useful player if he can perform to this level. Not the star many were hoping for, but a legitimate major leaguer who can hit at the bottom of a good lineup is a perfectly fine result. 

I think his RISP numbers make it feel like he's doing better than he is. That emotional spike carries more weight in our minds. Similar to how the team feels like it's overperforming even though it's performing almost exactly how the projections and many fans predicted. The league is just down so they're "in contention" and it feels like they're performing better than they are.

If the Twins can back into playoff contention every year and Lee can outperform most every metric every year, we'll mostly be happy. But both should be looked at with a healthy level of skepticism until they start doing things in a more stably sustainable manner.

[Stone Temple Twins]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Then why wasn't he too smart for them in the 2 previous seasons?

Probably has something to do with adjusting to the league pitching/different offseason planning. It sometimes takes time for players tools to transfer to MLB pitching or any other major league. Look at guys like Aaron judge 2016 or ichiros first two seasons in the Japan

[DataNerd]

The big reason that he is overperforming his xwOBA is that he pulls the ball in the air alot, and balls pulled in the air significantly outperform their xwOBA (0.621 xwOBA, 0.877 wOBA for the league as a whole).  He has had a lot of HRs pulled down the line that have low xwOBA even though they would be a HR at almost if not every park.  These balls don't get classed as barrels because the exit velo isn't enough, but they are consistantly going out of the park.

 

While he should overperform, I'm not sure if he can do it at this level.  The big question is if the number of HRs right down the line is noise or if it is a skill.

[DocBauer]

Isn't funny how prospects are initially viewed and debated as opposed to hiw they turn out. My favorite Twins example is the drafting of 1B Dave McCarty out of Stanford...I want to say he was All American...in the early 90's and turned out to be a bad choice. But a local HS kid like Kent Hrbek, drafted in the 17th round a little over a decade previously became a Twins icon. You just never know...until you know...how a prospect is going to turn out.

I've basically given up trying to "figure out" Brooks Lee. He has more HR power than was expected, but isn't the sure fire HITTER he was supposed to be. And when you read all the numbers presented in the OP, you still end up with an enigma as to whe he is, and who he might yet be. The actual production doesn't seem to mesh with some of the underlying numbers.

As a hopeful fan, this is what I DO know, this is only his 2nd full ML season. And I think we often forget that. YES, he debuted in 2024 as a TOP prospect. But 185 PA and 172 AB is barely above rookie status, (150 AB), and less than half a season. And it was a mediocre debut. In 2025, his 1st full season, he improved his quad slash line numbers across the board in all categories, and the HR power began to appear. It wasn't a great season, but it did show improvement. 

Now 25yo, in only his 2nd full ML season, he has once again raised all of his quad slash line numbers yet again. He's also already surpassed his XB hit totals, and HR mark, with a month and a half of the season yet to go. 

For giggles, his 3yr OPS numbers are .585-.654-.721, though 2026 is not over yet, of course. His OPS+ numbers are 64-81-101 again with the caveat that 2026 still has a month and a half left to play. 

So we can look at positive numbers, and negative numbers, that don't necessarily align. I think we're looking at a still young player who is improving as a hitter, and improving his power and production, but in a way that not only defies a few underlying metrics, but is also different from the player we THOIGHT we drafted. He's SUPPOSED to already be a .270-.280 hitter with good contact, a solid OB%, with good DBLS power, but somewhat limited HR power.

Instead, we're getting less AVG and OB%, and less contact, but more power. He runs hot and cold, but he's also had some great moments and key AB with key hits that have won games.

So who is Brooks Lee as a hitter? I still don't know. I think the question should be, deapite analysis, who MIGHT he be? Again, I just don't know. But I do think he's growing and adapting as a ML hitter. He's currently on pace for about 46 XBH, which includes 21 HR, and is targeting around 78 RBI. That's not a bad ballplayer. 

And while I don't expect him to ever win a Silver Slugger award, if he just maintains the growth path he's shown going in to 2027 as a 26yo, we might be looking at a .260-ish AVG, a .315-ish OB%, and a .450-ish SLG%. That's a .765 OPS. Now, he could regress, or he could do better. But continued improvement for someone who will only turn 26yo during ST next season, with 2 full seasons behind him, I don't think growing as a hitter should be unexpected. 

Growth as a ballplayer eventually hits a ceiling and you are what you are. But I don't think we've seen the best of Lee yet. I expect he's got another level yet to reach. He's probably never going to come close to being an All Star caliber player, and maybe that's a disappointment considering his draft status and hype coming out of college. But if he can raise his game that one more notch, he's a really solid ML BAT who fits anywhere from 5-7 in a good lineup. 

Again, I've stopped trying to figure out who he is, and might be, as a ML hitter. But I believe he has one more level he can reach. And that level plays nicely. 

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Several of us have been saying Lee looks like an average player since he was hyped in the minors.  What do you know ... His wRC+ is exactly average and so are his defensive metrics.  He is an average player which is just fine if he is hitting 7th or 8th.  

A regular who is average is a valuable player. Yes, clubs need a few better players and all teams covet the all star types, but if Lee can be average in the field and at the plate it is ok. 

Coming out of college Brooks Lee was identified as a player capable of moving quickly through the minors and providing average play as a third baseman. Scouts did not see him holding down shortstop and he also does not project well at second base due to limited range. There is plenty of room for Lee to improve at the plate and in the field but he is not a big concern. Lee batting in the bottom of the order is a good idea.

[Cris E]

You can't focus on everything, and having someone just hold down a position reliably and hit seventh like a professional is as valuable as having someone show up and give you 28 decent starts in the #4 spot. He's not in the #3 spot, but you don't ever have to worry.  It simplifies team building and management immensely. 

It may turn out that Lee gets bumped from 3B when Culpepper gets pushed out (either from SS by Houston or some later guy taking 2B) but Brooks will be Clemens by then, fielding OK at a lot of spots and giving a decent at bat whenever asked. He's a low key pro and should find a role on this team for a lot of years to come.

[bean5302]

19 hours ago, Stone Temple Twins said:

Probably has something to do with adjusting to the league pitching/different offseason planning. It sometimes takes time for players tools to transfer to MLB pitching or any other major league. Look at guys like Aaron judge 2016 or ichiros first two seasons in the Japan

So let's take a look at Aaron Judge's teeny tiny 95 PA sample size in 2016. wOBA .267. xwOBA = .281. 14pts difference. Falls within the 87% of players over a 3 year period. The next two years, Judge was within 20pts, he just hit the ball better. Judge went from 9.5% BB and 44.2% K in year 1 to 18.7% BB and 30.7% K in year 2. That shows in expected metrics. 

When you see a player adapt, you see the expected performance change because the balls are being hit differently. Contact squares, up, hard hit and barrel rates climb, walk rate jumps, strikeout rate drops. Brooks Lee? None of that. He's hitting balls the same, walking and striking out the same, chasing the same, whiffing the same. That's actually not exactly true. He's actually having the worst year of his career in terms of expected results.

Royce Lewis in 2023 is an excellent example. His first 13 games was all luck. wOBA .317 vs. xwOBA .249. He was getting results (singles) for no good reason. He didn't take a single walk and struck out 32% of the time. The next 24 games wOBA .396 vs. xwOBA .334. The wOBA was insane, but the part that matters is the 85pt improvement in xwOBA. BB rate jumped from 0.0% to 8.2%. K rate dropped by 40% down to 22%. ISO jumped 50% where Lewis was getting extra bases, not just singles. Then the last 21 games is where the magic happens. wOBA .431 with an xwOBA of .422, again an 88pt improvement. Lewis was literally playing like an MVP. Walk rate 13.2%, K rate 18.7%. ISO to an elite .329. Lewis' actual production was mirrored by his expected production. This is why people like me continue to believe in Royce. What Royce was doing at the end of 2023 was no fluke, unlike Brooks Lee's 2026. Royce had no vulnerabilities to pitch type or pitch location. His .304/.396/.633 OPS 1.029 wRC+ 179 production was legit, and right in line with expected production. That's what adaptation looks like.

[ashbury]

On 8/14/2026 at 8:22 PM, Cris E said:

You can't focus on everything, and having someone just hold down a position reliably and hit seventh like a professional is as valuable as having someone show up and give you 28 decent starts in the #4 spot. He's not in the #3 spot, but you don't ever have to worry.  It simplifies team building and management immensely. 

The trouble is when you end up with a 26-man roster chock full of professional #7 hitters and what-me-worry #4 starters.  😄