Byron Buxton's Injury Complicates Everything At The Deadline

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Stop me if you've heard this before: Byron Buxton is currently injured.

The Twins' star center fielder left Tuesday night's game against the Royals with right hip soreness–the same hip that's given him trouble on and off for a good portion of the season. And sure enough, it led to another trip to the injured list. Minnesota officially placed Buxton on the 10-day IL with a right hip impingement, and considering how long this issue has lingered throughout the year, it wouldn't be surprising if this ends up being much more than just a minimum stay.

Obviously, the front office knows far more about the severity of the injury than any of us do. Maybe this is something he'll be able to play through after a couple of weeks, and it's just a precautionary move. But there's also a very real chance we don't see Buxton again for quite some time. If that's the case, this injury could have a MASSIVE impact. Not just on the Twins' trade deadline plans, but also on what happens with several of the organization's top prospects over the final two months of the season.

Let's start with the trade deadline because this changes quite a bit. For one, if the Twins are going to be without Buxton for a significant portion of the remainder of the season, their view of themselves as legitimate contenders becomes a little more tentative. At the moment, Minnesota sits a game above .500, three games behind the White Sox and Guardians in the AL Central, and tied with Cleveland for the final American League Wild Card spot. They're right there. With a healthy roster, it's not difficult to picture this team making a run over the final two months; especially if the front office adds another impact player or two before the deadline.

But doing that without the face of the franchise in the lineup becomes a whole lot more difficult. Buxton has been the engine behind so much of the Twins’ success this season. His production at the plate and his defense in center field simply aren't things you can replace with one player. This injury could force the Twins to become more conservative over the next few days.

That doesn't mean the team will switch to sellers; that die is cast. But if the front office no longer believes this team has a serious chance of making the playoffs without Buxton, it becomes much easier to justify thinking about the bigger picture instead of pushing additional chips into the middle of the table. Perhaps that means being less aggressive in their trade pursuits.

At the same time, there's another scenario that's become much more interesting. What if the Twins still decide they're going to be just as aggressive? If that's the case, there's now an even bigger need for another outfielder. You could argue that was already one of Minnesota's biggest needs heading into the deadline; now it feels impossible to ignore. And not just any outfielder, either. The Twins likely need another right-handed bat.

Without Buxton in the lineup, Austin Martin and Luke Keaschall are the only right-handed hitting outfield options currently on the major league roster. With Tristan Gray being recalled in a corresponding move with Buxton, that likely means Ryan Kreidler will take on a bigger role in the outfield as well.  The Twins also have Gabriel Gonzalez and Kyler Fedko putting together solid seasons in Triple-A St. Paul, but if you're trying to replace anything close to Buxton's production, it's hard to imagine the answer coming from within the organization. That's probably a need you'll have to address externally.

As a matter of fact, fellow Twins Daily writer Matthew Taylor recently wrote about some right-handed outfield targets Minnesota could target.  Even before Buxton landed on the injured list, you could've argued adding a right-handed hitting outfielder was the Twins' second-biggest need behind bullpen help. Now, that need becomes even more urgent if this team still believes it can make a postseason push.

On the other hand, if the Twins decide Buxton's injury changes everything and they pull back at the deadline, that could end up creating opportunities for some of the organization's top prospects. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez returned to the St. Paul Saints' lineup earlier this week, and Buxton's absence could eventually open the door for his long-awaited major league debut. There's another interesting domino that could fall as well. If Minnesota eventually decides Buxton's injury requires a move to the 60-day injured list later this season, that would create an opening on the club's 40-man roster. That spot could very well be reserved for the Twins' top prospect, Walker Jenkins. In fact, if Buxton misses an extended period of time, the chances of seeing both Rodriguez and Jenkins in the majors later this summer increase considerably. That's obviously not the way anyone wants those promotions to happen, but it's a possibility worth monitoring over the next several weeks.

I'm not going to sugarcoat it; this really, really sucks. It finally felt like the Twins had started building some legitimate momentum. There was reason to believe this team was beginning to turn the corner at exactly the right time, and then the worst possible thing that could’ve happened actually happened. Hopefully, this ends up being a relatively short absence, and we're looking back on all of this in a couple of weeks wondering why we were so concerned.

But until we know more, it's impossible to ignore just how much this injury could change—not only the Twins' outlook for the rest of the season, but also everything they planned to do before the trade deadline.

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[Dave Lemke]

I think this comes under the heading of a panic attack. Lets wait and see what the rest of the weekend brings. Trust the people that know more about the situation than we do. 

 

[90stwinskid]

Maybe I'm a bit too chill about Buxton being injured, but I'm not sure our deadline approach changes all that much with him on the IL. The FO has been clear that pitching is our top priority, and shown as much in their actions so far. And the offense has still been good enough throughout the season to make up enough for his absence (granted, you can never truly replace Buxton and his impact). 

Don't get me wrong -- missing Buxton in the lineup hurts, a lot. I just don't see his absence changing our deadline approach, at least to the extent that we part with top-10 or top-15 prospects to get a bat.

Pitching is the priority, as it should be, imo.

Someone call me out if I'm crazy or missing something!

Edited 3 hours ago by 90stwinskid
Addition qualifiers needed

[Gamblerssoftball]

Actually,  the Twins have moved closer to a playoff spot mostly without Buxton in the lineup. It certainly does hurt to not have him in the game right now, but this team has shown some fight without him. I don't think his absence will change the plans of the team heading into the trade deadline. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Keep calm and carry on.  This is a team of never say die players. The bullpen is looking really good now and Keaschall is hitting really well.  He should be moved up in the batting order now.  The switch hitters will be batting righty against lefthanded pitchers.  Keep calm and carry on. The best is yet to come.

[bean5302]

This is so overdramatic. Buxton's injury has no impact on the Twins deadline plans, and I think that was outright proven already when the Twins took on the largest AAV reliever contract they've had since 2011 when Joe Ryan departed.

The Twins are buyers. 

[mikelink45]

I am not as worried about Buxton as I am the team reluctance to bring up its prospects to fill the roles.  Alan Roden is up because we traded for him and he is hitting above his career mlb record - but that means his 205 BA is a high water mark - that is not enough.  And they are giving him a nice set of starts unlike what they did with Fedko.  But don't misunderstand I am not lobbying for Fedko.  While I would not mind Wallner is hitting the cover off the ball and has good MLB history.  Gonzales, Rodriguez and Jenkins are highly rated but we won't know what to expect until we give them a chance.  

But Roden has a -0.7  career WAR and is hitting a career 194 in 175 ABs with a 542 OPS which is a 51 OPS+ 269 OBP - he is slightly better this year 289 - a career 2 HR and this year his Slug is 205 down from a career 274 which is also terrible.  

[Andy MacPhail]

WOW, maybe the Twins will decide to sell Ryan, Jeffers & Larnach, to take advantage of the market because Buxton is hurt, while saying we're still competing. Nah, Twins have been hanging on there even w/o Buxton. Twins will take that into consideration, IMO. nothing much will change.

[Coach]

My biggest concern is moving Kreidler from SS to CF, leaving Gray to try and play SS.  Any outfielder we put in center will help the twins more because they will replace Gray's defense and offence (or lack thereof).  Gray does not make the Twins better, no matter where he is, and the bench is included.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Coach said:

My biggest concern is moving Kreidler from SS to CF, leaving Gray to try and play SS.  Any outfielder we put in center will help the twins more because they will replace Gray's defense and offence (or lack thereof).  Gray does not make the Twins better, no matter where he is, and the bench is included.

Agreed.