The Twins Can Buy Without Sacrificing Tomorrow, by Targeting Emerson Hancock

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

For the past several weeks, the biggest debate surrounding the Twins has centered around one question: should they buy or should they sell? With the club hovering around the Wild Card race, there are compelling arguments on both sides. Buyers believe the Twins have enough talent to make a postseason run if they reinforce a few weaknesses before the August 3 trade deadline. Sellers point to the club's roughly one-in-three playoff odds and argue that it would be wiser to shift focus toward building the next core of championship-caliber players. The Twins staked out their position Tuesday, though: they're buying. The goal now is to do it responsibly.

Most trade deadline decisions force teams to pick a lane. Emerson Hancock is one of the few players who could allow the Twins to both shore up this year's rotation and carry that help forward for multiple seasons.

The Seattle Mariners find themselves in an interesting position. They sit at 53-55, third place in the AL West, with three teams (including the Twins) standing between them and the final Wild Card spot. Despite those standings, FanGraphs still gives Seattle a 59.1% chance to reach the postseason, making them one of the more fascinating teams to watch over the next several days. Even with those favorable playoff odds, nearly every report surrounding the Mariners suggests they are expected to move at least one of their starting pitchers. During his trade deadline preview on YouTube, Jeff Passan said he expects Seattle to trade Emerson Hancock before the deadline.

Trading Hancock would not necessarily signal a sell-off. Quite the opposite. The Mariners simply possess more starting pitching than almost anyone else in baseball. Their current rotation is six arms deep, and help is already on the way. Two of baseball's premier pitching prospects, Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan, are nearing the majors, giving Seattle the luxury of dealing from an area of tremendous organizational strength.

What the Mariners desperately need is offense. Seattle owns one of baseball's weakest lineups, entering the deadline with a .690 team OPS. Their struggles become even more pronounced against left-handed pitching, where their .656 OPS ranks third-worst in baseball. If the Mariners intend to chase a playoff spot, their priority will almost certainly be acquiring impact bats.

From the Twins' perspective, Hancock checks nearly every box. The former top-50 prospect debuted in 2023, and while his first taste of the majors came with growing pains, 2026 has looked much more like the version scouts envisioned when Seattle selected him sixth overall in the 2020 draft. This season, Hancock owns a 3.16 ERA while posting career bests nearly across the board. His strikeout rate has climbed to 23%, and his 3.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio reflects the improved command that made him such a highly regarded prospect. 

His arsenal has taken another step forward, as well. Hancock's fastball has become one of the more effective pitches in his repertoire, while his sweeper has generated a 37% whiff rate. Just as importantly, he has handled both right-handed and left-handed hitters effectively, avoiding the dramatic platoon splits that often limit young starters.

Perhaps the most attractive part of his profile has nothing to do with this season. Hancock remains in his pre-arbitration years and is under team control through the 2030 season. That's exactly the type of pitcher the Twins should be targeting. Rather than acquiring a rental starter who only helps for two months, Minnesota could add a pitcher capable of sliding immediately into the middle of the rotation while also becoming a foundational piece for several seasons. Whether the Twins ultimately sneak into the playoffs or not, Hancock would remain one of the organization's most valuable long-term assets.

That makes him one of the rare deadline acquisitions who strengthens both the present and the future. Of course, acquiring that kind of pitcher will not come cheaply.

Making things even more interesting is the schedule. Minnesota travels to Seattle this weekend for a three-game series, the final series before both clubs reach the August 3 trade deadline. Those games could dramatically alter the outlook for both organizations. If the Twins win the series and bury the Mariners a little deeper in the Wild Card standings, Seattle could become much more motivated to prioritize future value over a playoff chase. On the other hand, if the Mariners surge over the next week, they could still view themselves as buyers while remaining motivated to move Hancock in exchange for immediate offensive help.

In that scenario, the Mariners would likely seek hitters who can help them immediately, especially a right-handed bat. Minnesota is one of the few organizations capable of satisfying that need. A package centered around Royce Lewis and a couple of the team's higher-level prospects could make sense, if Seattle believes Lewis can regain his All-Star form while giving them another impact right-handed bat. Another possibility would be a deal built around Luke Keaschall, whose offensive upside and ability to play the outfield would fit well with what the Mariners are trying to accomplish.

Those kinds of moves become much more palatable for Minnesota because of the talent waiting in the upper levels of the farm system. Kaelen Culpepper continues to move toward the majors, Walker Jenkins remains one of baseball's top prospects, and the Twins have enough young position-player depth to replace a player like Lewis or Keaschall internally while strengthening a rotation that still needs another dependable arm. 

That flexibility is exactly what makes Hancock such an appealing target. Most deadline additions force teams into an all-in approach or push them toward selling off pieces for tomorrow. Hancock represents something different. He would improve Minnesota's chances of competing this season while giving the organization another controllable starter to build around for 2027, 2028 and beyond. If the Twins are looking for a way to invest in the present without sacrificing the future, there may not be a better trade target available at this year's deadline.

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What do you think? Should the Twins pursue Emerson Hancock if the Mariners make him available? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[thelanges5]

[DFlow]

The problem is Hancock has below average peripherals for a  guy who is already 27 years old. This feels like a classic "sell high" on a guy having a pop up season who is really no more than a #5 starter. I'm not saying he does not value, but I don't think Hancock is anywhere near the pitcher quality that Taj Bradley was a year ago in a ML-ML talent swap. The Mariners are going to ask for a decent chunk of change here and I think the Twins only pathway is a trade from the outfield (due the density of ML and AAA ready bats). 

Further- I just do not see the value in offloading Royce. We do not need to open up at bats for someone else here. It makes more sense to see if he comes out of this (he's got like a .770 OPS since coming back from the minors anyways). 

[Dman]

I'd think the M's would want more proven players than that to deal Hancock.  Maybe Jeffers plus one of those two would do it.  We'll have to see where the M's are at the deadline.  They have a 3 game set with the Dodgers and then Twins before the deadline.  They could be quite a ways back by then.

[Mike Sixel]

I think Seattle loses too much the rest of the rest to do this 

But if they can get him for Jeffers and Larnach, I'm in. Call up Jenkins to replace Trevor. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Meh. Not sure. He's controllable so there's that but before this season, his numbers were below league average. 

[bean5302]

Hancock is a questionable playoff caliber starter. He's changed his slider and added a cutter this year which has paid dividends, but the scouting reports probably haven't fully caught up. He probably makes the Twins a little better at the back end of the rotation.

Royce Lewis has like +8 surplus value (minimal.) Keaschall is probably like +30. They're going to be viewed dramatically different by teams.

In any case, Hancock would not be my target. Moving the Twins from 1.8% to win the World Series to 1.9% doesn't make me interested. Gausman isn't going to cost a ton of prospect capital. He's at like +4MM surplus. He's the kind of starter the Twins should target.

[gmwannabe]

Reid Detmers!

[tony&rodney]

Hard to know where the team leans on trading players from their starting batting order (Jeffers, Lewis, Keaschall in this article) right now. It seems like the Twins are going to keep Jeffers unless a club pays more than is expected, which can happen. 

Many people have talked about the mediocrity of the American League on the one hand and then do not want the Twins to take a shot now because they are not a very good team. I'm of the belief that all of the teams in baseball are good. There are a few teams that are better and a few are not as good. I have enjoyed watching the Rockies a few times lately. They have some fun players. So much discussion about needed parity but it seems like MLB is very competitive at this moment in time.

Thus, I am a fan of the Twins making a few moves to strengthen what has been a fun, albeit flawed, team. Focusing on the positive, there really aren't any teams in the AL that are much better than the Twins. A few strategic additions and perhaps a little more attention to small ball at appropriate moments sounds fine with me.

Emerson Hancock sounds ok but the return to Seattle would be my concern.

[nicksaviking]

The Mariners have been loaded at starting pitching for four years now but have refused to trade any. Now they're finally willing, but firmly only willing to move this one in particular? That should be a red flag. Looks like he was forced to give up the changeup because it got crushed. In place of that off speed pitch, he turned his slider into a sweeper. That's a pretty new development. Is that new pitch awesome? Or is the book just not out on it yet? You really need a reliable off speed pitch as a starter, so if this new sweeper wasn't a silver bullet to fix his repertoire, he's almost certainly destined for the bullpen.

Starting pitching typically takes a pretty big over-pay this time of year. I'm guessing another club would offer the Mariners a package that's much more than what I'd be comfortable with the Twins offering.

 

[MMBoys93]

Yeah I don’t love Hancock. He benefits greatly from Safeco and nearly every metric points to him coming back to earth as a good number 4 starter at best. 

classic sell high situation for Seattle 

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is perfectly reasonable to have doubts about him.

Detmers was a RP before this year, mostly, and people don't seem worried his arm will fall off.....

[chpettit19]

I'd very much like the Twins to get Hancock. Yes, he's a sell high guy, but so is Jeffers and Lewis is a sell middle to low guy. If they can get Hancock for a package built around either of those guys, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Keaschall is a little more difficult to peg. I don't at all think he's got the type of power that got people excited last year, but I do think he's a solid OBP, speed, gamer guy. Wouldn't be super upset with a Keaschall for Hancock deal but would prefer Jeffers or Lewis being the guy heading to the pacific northwest.

[The123bigalguy]

No. Keep Royce and Luke. Jeffers? Okay, given his status. Jeffers for Hancock. With Wallner or Larnach? Okay. I think, though, the Twins can do better.

[laloesch]

Meh. Pass

[DataNerd]

No way would I be willing to pay the cost.  He's a 4-5, and getting another guy like that for next year isn't a good use of resources (Ryan/Pablo/Bradley are all in front of him, with Abel/Prielipp having much more upside).  I'd rather go for the rental equivalent of Hancock who we won't have to pay near the price for.

[S Bart]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think Seattle loses too much the rest of the rest to do this 

But if they can get him for Jeffers and Larnach, I'm in. Call up Jenkins to replace Trevor. 

Or maybe Buxton if stays injured..

[mickster]

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd very much like the Twins to get Hancock. Yes, he's a sell high guy, but so is Jeffers and Lewis is a sell middle to low guy. If they can get Hancock for a package built around either of those guys, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Keaschall is a little more difficult to peg. I don't at all think he's got the type of power that got people excited last year, but I do think he's a solid OBP, speed, gamer guy. Wouldn't be super upset with a Keaschall for Hancock deal but would prefer Jeffers or Lewis being the guy heading to the pacific northwest.

I think Seattle wants a ready now RH but, I would try and sell them on Martin and Erod and maybe throw in Wallner

[mike8791]

Let's at least be realistic.  While some sceptics might disparage Hancock's 2026 performance as a freak occurrence, I look at his record and ask - would he be a significant upgrade in our rotation?  Absolutely!

Behind Ryan and Btadley, we have no one who can be counted on in a playoff.  Ober would probably get the nod for game 3 but can we really count on a guy who can't even touch 90 with his fastball?  Mathews is likely to be torched for the HR ball by a good hitting team and Prielipp is nearing the end of his useful life with more IP than he has ever achieved.  Hancock would be a massive improvement over the current roster.

Of course, the big question is what would it take in a trade?  They need RH offense, which makes Jeffers a leading candidate.  Holding onto a player who will most surely seek green pastures next year makes little sense; however, Cal Raleigh is one year(far) removed from an MVP year.  Would the M's relegate him to a bench role?  Guys like Lewis and Keaschall might be of interest but they are not sure bets to immediately bolster the M's moribund offense.  Nor do we want to get rid of arguably our two best hitters now, Jeffers and Larnach, without killing our offense.  

Hancock would be a very welcome addition but does Zoll have the cajones to pull off a big trade?  He's shown little aptitude yet, but one can only hope the Twins surprising season motivates him to rise to the occasion and find a way.

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

I'd think the M's would want more proven players than that to deal Hancock.  Maybe Jeffers plus one of those two would do it.  We'll have to see where the M's are at the deadline.  They have a 3 game set with the Dodgers and then Twins before the deadline.  They could be quite a ways back by then.

I’ve been pushing a trade for Hancock on other threads here, but I don’t think giving up Lewis or Keaschall should be necessary or is a good idea. They need a right handed hitting catcher in the worst way with Raleigh still suffering from the strained oblique and hitting .167. How about trading them Jeffers and a high-end hitter from our system like Emma, Gonzales or Mendez? Maybe they throwing a reliever like Ferrer or Speier and we throw in a middle ranked prospect to even have the deal. I think something like that would make sense for both sides. They get that right handed bat they need plus some real future upside that could help them as early as next year, we get a controllable number three or number four starter and some help in the bullpen.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, DataNerd said:

No way would I be willing to pay the cost.  He's a 4-5, and getting another guy like that for next year isn't a good use of resources (Ryan/Pablo/Bradley are all in front of him, with Abel/Prielipp having much more upside).  I'd rather go for the rental equivalent of Hancock who we won't have to pay near the price for.

Yeah there is a reason he is the one they are willing to trade. I like Abel, Prielipp and Rojas better. He's also 27 and doesn't line up as well for 2028 when I think this next core should be established or establishing itself. I'd think big bucks Mr. Pohlad could find something similar (i.e 4th 5th starter) in the offseason for just money.

I wouldn't be opposed to getting him. If the price was right.  I just don't think we have what they need especially if we are going for it.

[HerbieFan]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Hancock is a questionable playoff caliber starter. He's changed his slider and added a cutter this year which has paid dividends, but the scouting reports probably haven't fully caught up. He probably makes the Twins a little better at the back end of the rotation.

Royce Lewis has like +8 surplus value (minimal.) Keaschall is probably like +30. They're going to be viewed dramatically different by teams.

In any case, Hancock would not be my target. Moving the Twins from 1.8% to win the World Series to 1.9% doesn't make me interested. Gausman isn't going to cost a ton of prospect capital. He's at like +4MM surplus. He's the kind of starter the Twins should target.

Love me some Kevin Gausman!

[Greglw3]

4 hours ago, DFlow said:

The problem is Hancock has below average peripherals for a  guy who is already 27 years old. This feels like a classic "sell high" on a guy having a pop up season who is really no more than a #5 starter. I'm not saying he does not value, but I don't think Hancock is anywhere near the pitcher quality that Taj Bradley was a year ago in a ML-ML talent swap. The Mariners are going to ask for a decent chunk of change here and I think the Twins only pathway is a trade from the outfield (due the density of ML and AAA ready bats). 

Further- I just do not see the value in offloading Royce. We do not need to open up at bats for someone else here. It makes more sense to see if he comes out of this (he's got like a .770 OPS since coming back from the minors anyways). 

Peripherals? The guy has a winning record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.006 WHIP. He’s having a dominating season and he’s in his athletic prime. That’s all I need to know.

 

[Greglw3]

I’m all in on him. 

Giving up a Keaschall or Lewis would be tough but it’s the old baseball expression - you have to give up something to get something. I’d prefer to give up Larnach and slide Walker Jenkins in. 

Would they be interested in E-Rod? We’d still have Jenkins and Mendez and Roden.