How the Red Sox Changed Everything for the Twins

[Matthew Taylor]

For much of the 2026 season, the American League has been defined by mediocrity. Outside of the division leaders and whichever AL East club happened to occupy second place between the Yankees and Rays, there were no clear playoff teams. Instead, the Wild Card race became a crowded collection of six or seven clubs hovering around the .500 mark, all believing they had a legitimate chance to reach October.

That environment has been one of the biggest reasons the Twins have remained in the playoff conversation despite an underwhelming season. Their record has often looked uninspiring, but so has almost everyone else's. On July 1, Minnesota sat at 42-46, yet still carried a 27 percent chance of making the postseason. At that same point, no non-division leader in the American League had playoff odds higher than 33 percent. It was an indication of just how unsettled the Wild Card picture had become.

As long as the Twins stayed within striking distance of .500, they were always going to remain part of that conversation. The math worked in their favor because there simply weren't enough teams separating themselves from the pack. The biggest threat to Minnesota's playoff hopes wasn't necessarily their own record. It was the possibility that another team would finally catch fire and turn a wide open race into a much more exclusive one.

That is exactly what has happened.

On July 1, the Boston Red Sox looked finished. They were 37-48, sitting in last place in the American League East and carrying just a 13.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. Reports had already surfaced that Boston was deep into trade discussions and preparing to sell ahead of the deadline. They appeared to be on the verge of waving the white flag on their season.

Instead, they completely changed the landscape of the American League.

Beginning on July 1, Boston ripped off a remarkable 15-game winning streak that transformed its season almost overnight. The Red Sox went from 11 games under .500 to 52-48 and suddenly found themselves two games clear of a Wild Card spot. Their playoff odds have skyrocketed to 61.3 percent, and rather than preparing to sell, they now look like one of the most aggressive buyers at the trade deadline. A team that was days away from pulling itself out of the playoff race is now firmly in the driver's seat for October baseball.

For the Twins, the implications are significant.

Minnesota has actually improved since July 1, climbing from four games under .500 to just two games below the break-even mark. Under normal circumstances, that would be encouraging progress in such a tightly packed Wild Card race. Instead, their playoff odds have actually declined because the overall landscape has changed.

There is essentially one fewer playoff spot available.

The American League once looked like six teams battling for two Wild Card berths. Boston's surge has effectively allowed one club to separate from the pack, leaving everyone else fighting over what may now amount to a single remaining opening. The margin for error has become much smaller.

That is the danger of relying on the struggles of everyone around you. It can be tempting to look at a mediocre field and believe that simply hanging around .500 will be enough to stay alive until September. The problem is that those standings are never frozen in place. Eventually, somebody gets hot.

This time it was Boston.

Could another team make a similar run? Absolutely. Could it be the Twins? They certainly hope so. There is still plenty of baseball left, and Minnesota remains close enough to make a legitimate push. Their front office can still justify buying at the deadline if they believe this roster has another level to reach.

What Boston's run should eliminate, however, is any thought that simply staying afloat will be enough. An 81-win season was never likely to earn a playoff berth, even in a weak American League. The Red Sox have reinforced that reality. Teams that want to play in October have to create separation, not wait for everyone else to stay mediocre.

The Red Sox have reminded everyone that playoff races are won by taking advantage of opportunities, not by waiting for opportunities to come to you.

Do you think Boston has effectively claimed one of the American League Wild Card spots, or is the race still wide open? Can the Twins put together a run of their own over the final two months, and should that possibility influence how aggressive they are at the trade deadline? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Brandon]

If you're a pessimist you give up.  Boston has already won.  They won't go on a losing streak or anyone else a winning streak.  Boston is only a half game ahead of Cleveland.  That doesn't mean anything at this point.  Detroit once came back from a 3 game deficit to overtake Toronto in the last 7 games of the season.  There are so many teams still in the race right now.  But Boston has changed the equation.  Going from Sellers to buyers, Boston has a chance to make the races more fun and interesting.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins have to play as well as the best team in the AL has played all year, just to get to 85 wins. Who thinks that is realistic?

[saviking]

Still to early to tell. There is a log jam for the final spot or spots. Anything can happen. Even the Twins winning the division .. 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins have to play as well as the best team in the AL has played all year, just to get to 85 wins. Who thinks that is realistic?

The Twins have the best offense in the AL and they have minor leagues ready to step in.  Culpepper at SS and a number of OF prospects.  Roden is getting his chance now.  We could use an upgrade in the rotation and a top reliever.  And that makes 85 wins more likely.  

[Craig Arko]

Twins go on a 5 game win streak; Boston a 5 game losing streak. Things can change quickly.

[bean5302]

The new playoff format has certainly cracked the door open a bit for mediocre teams to serve as first round fodder for good teams, but the Twins' fate doesn't feel connected to Boston at all to me. Does anybody actually believe the Twins had a true shot if they stayed on an 81-81 pace or worse? Some team is going to win some games. It's rare to see teams in the playoffs under 90 wins historically (except in the embarrassment to baseball AL Central).

We should know soon what the Twins are going to do. Are they buyers or sellers or pretenders?

[terrydactyls]

Reality is for the faint of heart.  Go Twins.

[Nashvilletwin]

Wow, just read what the Bosox offered for Ryan at last year’s deadline.  No wonder Falvey was fired…

[darin617]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

If you're a pessimist you give up.  Boston has already won.  They won't go on a losing streak or anyone else a winning streak.  Boston is only a half game ahead of Cleveland.  That doesn't mean anything at this point.  Detroit once came back from a 3 game deficit to overtake Toronto in the last 7 games of the season.  There are so many teams still in the race right now.  But Boston has changed the equation.  Going from Sellers to buyers, Boston has a chance to make the races more fun and interesting.

The Twins could be a wild card team and then get instantly destroyed in the first round.

In order to have a chance they would need at least a #3 starter, at least 2 or 3 quality bullpen arms, and at least one more bat I would say an outfielder. 

Then you need everyone to stay healthy and exceed projections.

I would rather make some trades to improve the future. Jeffers needs to be dealt for sure. I would trade Ryan if they get blown away.  If Boston would have traded Early and a couple of prospects fir Ryan it would have been great.

[darin617]

17 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The Twins have the best offense in the AL and they have minor leagues ready to step in.  Culpepper at SS and a number of OF prospects.  Roden is getting his chance now.  We could use an upgrade in the rotation and a top reliever.  And that makes 85 wins more likely.  

The pitching is very suspect to say the least. Maybe 2 starters and possibly 2 relief pitchers you might trust. 

I'm happy they have been competitive so far and I'm realistic about their playoff chances.

[Brandon]

2 minutes ago, darin617 said:

The Twins could be a wild card team and then get instantly destroyed in the first round.

In order to have a chance they would need at least a #3 starter, at least 2 or 3 quality bullpen arms, and at least one more bat I would say an outfielder. 

Then you need everyone to stay healthy and exceed projections.

I would rather make some trades to improve the future. Jeffers needs to be dealt for sure. I would trade Ryan if they get blown away.  If Boston would have traded Early and a couple of prospects fir Ryan it would have been great.

The Twins have a few bats in AAA.  We would need to trade for a starting pitcher.  Preliepp to the pen and we are off to the races.

[darin617]

6 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Wow, just read what the Bosox offered for Ryan at last year’s deadline.  No wonder Falvey was fired…

What was the offer you saw?

[Nashvilletwin]

2 minutes ago, darin617 said:

What was the offer you saw?

24 year old leftie starter Payton Tolle (3.31 era and 1.1 WHIP with 90+ Ks) and 20 year old SS Franklin Arias - the #7 overall prospect.

So we passed on a #2-3 at worst multi year control starter plus an infielder who along with Culpepper and Houston would likely have made up our SS, 2B, and 3B lineup for six to seven years starting no later than 2028. 
 

Geez.  Falvey really was a clown.

 

[shimrod]

Left unsaid is what prompted the turnaround. Red Sox fired their manager and multiple coaches. 

Twins are currently playing at or above their talent level - this is not a call to remove Shelton. Just a reminder for the "a manager doesn't make much difference" contingent from a couple years back. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, shimrod said:

Left unsaid is what prompted the turnaround. Red Sox fired their manager and multiple coaches. 

Twins are currently playing at or above their talent level - this is not a call to remove Shelton. Just a reminder for the "a manager doesn't make much difference" contingent from a couple years back. 

 

We don't KNOW that's why.....like, just because it happened doesn't mean it was the cause. IF it was, they should pay the new manager like 30 million, if he's worth them playing that much better. More value than any one player.

[Danchat]

I tire of the "anything can happen" argument, I've heard it so many times over the last 15 years and yet all we have is a single playoff series win to show for it. I am all for pushing in the chips when the time comes (looking at you, 2019 and 2023), but adding on to a middling team that might push for one of the recently added extra wild card spots is not wise. Especially when the AL is historically bad, and we'd be in 4th place in two NL divisions.

There's reason to be excited about the core of this team going forward, I think there is a legitimate chance this team could run away with the division next year if everything breaks right after we've seen plenty of players take steps forward in 2026. But a World Series run in 2026 isn't happening. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, shimrod said:

Left unsaid is what prompted the turnaround. Red Sox fired their manager and multiple coaches. 

Twins are currently playing at or above their talent level - this is not a call to remove Shelton. Just a reminder for the "a manager doesn't make much difference" contingent from a couple years back. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

We don't KNOW that's why.....like, just because it happened doesn't mean it was the cause. IF it was, they should pay the new manager like 30 million, if he's worth them playing that much better. More value than any one player.

Alex Cora was considered one of the best managers in baseball for years. He suddenly forgot how to manage this year? 

Cora was fired on April 26th. I mean, it's not like he was fired and a week or 2 later the Sox went bonkers. It was 2 months later. The sox were 11-17 when he was fired. Certainly underperforming. 2 months later, on June 26th, the Sox were 34-46. 23-29 in those 2 months. Better than the start, but nothing crazy. They went on a wild winning streak. The Twins had double digit winning streaks each of the last 2 seasons. Was Rocco some master manager for that?

A crazy winning streak does nothing to dissuade me from being in the "manager doesn't make much difference" contingent. And doing it 2 and a half months after the change certainly doesn't make me think the manager is the reason for it.

[darin617]

18 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

24 year old leftie starter Payton Tolle (3.31 era and 1.1 WHIP with 90+ Ks) and 20 year old SS Franklin Arias - the #7 overall prospect.

So we passed on a #2-3 at worst multi year control starter plus an infielder who along with Culpepper and Houston would likely have made up our SS, 2B, and 3B lineup for six to seven years starting no later than 2028. 
 

Geez.  Falvey really was a clown.

 

That was a very good offer. I just saw the Connelly Early trade and would have loved him in a Ryan trade now.

[darin617]

28 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The Twins have a few bats in AAA.  We would need to trade for a starting pitcher.  Preliepp to the pen and we are off to the races.

Are you saying the rotation is fine?  We hope Ryan is healthy, with Taj Bradley you could have a top of the rotation guy or a guy knocked out early, Ober is like a 5th starter and you should only need 4 starters in a playoff series 

[Nashvilletwin]

6 minutes ago, darin617 said:

That was a very good offer. I just saw the Connelly Early trade and would have loved him in a Ryan trade now.

Yep on both counts.  To make matters worse, Ryan’s value is dropping daily as well…

[DJL44]

Changing the subject slightly, is Sonny Gray pitching himself into the Hall of Fame? His stats don’t compare to past generations but they’re WAY better than most of his contemporaries. 36 WAR (8th among active pitchers), 2000 strikeouts, 137-104 record (5th in wins and 3rd among pitchers under age 40). CYA runner up and 3rd place finishes. He’s clearly better than any relief pitcher of his generation.

[IndianaTwin]

Um, Boston is only 1.5 games ahead of the final wild-card and there are five teams within 3.5 games of them.

Would I rather be where Boston is than where any of the teams following them is sure. Sure. Has Boston wrapped up a playoff spot? Not even close. Teams make up 3.5 games in a week all the time, let alone with more than a third of the season left. 

[Linus]

I think the Twins have no shot at the wildcard. Too many teams to beat out if they make the playoffs it will be from winning the division. And yes, their chances are slim and none. 

[weitz41]

So, the Twins need to win the division or take 2nd place to maybe make the playoffs. Not all that much different than before