The Twins’ Hidden Cost of Standing Pat at the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Jeremy Zoll is no longer operating in Derek Falvey's shadow. The 2026 MLB trade deadline represents a first opportunity for Twins fans to see how Zoll views a team with legitimate postseason aspirations and what risks he is willing to take to improve it.

That matters, because front office philosophies are often defined by the decisions they make in the biggest moments. Falvey had nearly a decade of trade deadlines that revealed his tendencies. He generally valued organizational depth, avoided sacrificing elite prospects for rentals, and searched for under-the-radar acquisitions. Whether fans agreed with every move or not, there was a blueprint.

Zoll hasn't had that opportunity yet. Since taking over baseball operations, there has been very little to evaluate when it comes to how he approaches acquiring major-league talent. The Twins haven't reached a point where they needed to choose between protecting the future and maximizing the present. That's what makes this deadline so fascinating.

Minnesota enters the last weeks of July hovering around the final American League Wild Card spot. The organization has repeatedly stated that it believes this roster can compete. Tom Pohlad has publicly acknowledged that ownership must invest in the team if it expects fans to return to Target Field. If the Twins remain in contention over the next two weeks, Zoll will face his first defining moment as the head of baseball operations.

Standing pat may sound like the safest option. History suggests it rarely feels that way once October arrives. The 2023 Twins were in the middle of one of the organization's best seasons in years. While they weren't playing their best baseball entering the deadline, the opportunity in front of them was obvious. The AL Central was there for the taking, and ending the franchise's historic postseason losing streak was within reach.

Then, everything slowed down. Minnesota lost five consecutive games leading into the trade deadline. Instead of aggressively addressing obvious needs, the front office chose to stand pat. The roster appeared to need another reliable late-inning reliever (as nearly every contender does in July) and another right-handed bat capable of balancing a lineup that had struggled against left-handed pitching. Neither addition came. The Twins, instead, trusted their clubhouse and internal depth.

To be fair, the decision wasn't a complete failure. Minnesota recovered, won the AL Central, and finally ended its 18-game postseason losing streak by sweeping Toronto in the Wild Card Series. It became one of the defining moments of the Falvey era and gave the franchise its first playoff series victory in more than two decades.

Yet, the lingering question has never disappeared. Would one more impact reliever have changed the Division Series against Houston? Would another dependable right-handed hitter have lengthened the lineup enough to produce another timely run? Those questions cannot be answered, but they continue to hang over a deadline that felt far too conservative.

The circumstances surrounding the 2020 trade deadline were unlike anything baseball had experienced. Teams had only 35 games to determine whether they were buyers or sellers. Expanded playoffs meant more organizations believed they had a chance to contend. There wasn't even a minor-league season, making it extraordinarily difficult to evaluate prospects being discussed in trade negotiations. Financial uncertainty also loomed over every organization, as clubs played in empty stadiums during the COVID-shortened season. Not surprisingly, many contenders remained relatively quiet.

The Twins found themselves in a familiar position. Like 2023, Minnesota entered the deadline riding a five-game losing streak that had dropped them from first place to third in the AL Central. Even after winning 101 games the previous season, the roster had areas that could have been strengthened. Another bullpen arm, a right-handed bat or additional starting pitching depth would have made sense.

Instead, the Twins trusted the players already in the organization. Given the unprecedented circumstances, that decision was easier to understand than the one made three years later. The uncertainty surrounding player evaluation, finances, and travel created obstacles no front office had previously encountered. Still, it represented another deadline where Minnesota chose continuity over aggression.

If the Twins ultimately choose not to buy, standing pat could actually be preferable to selling. Keeping Joe Ryan alone would make that worthwhile. Ryan would undoubtedly generate one of the strongest trade markets of any player available. Diamond Centric currently has him ranked as the third-best trade target, behind San Diego's Mason Miller and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. A controllable frontline starter entering his prime could command a massive return. But unlike an impending free agent, Ryan isn't disappearing after this season. Minnesota could revisit those conversations this winter and potentially receive a very similar package, while still giving itself every opportunity to compete for a playoff berth this year.

The same logic applies, to varying degrees, to Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, and Trevor Larnach. Bell and Larnach aren't likely to produce franchise-altering prospect hauls, while Jeffers's value as a rental would be modest. Trading those players simply to make transactions would create more holes than long-term benefits. If the Twins believe they can remain competitive, keeping that core together is probably the better baseball decision. Standing pat would preserve the roster. The problem is that preserving the roster isn't necessarily enough.

The upcoming stretch of games may ultimately determine the direction of the franchise. If the Twins fall several games out of the Wild Card race, the conversation changes dramatically. Selling becomes much easier to justify, particularly if the front office no longer believes the current roster has a realistic path to October.

But if Minnesota continues winning and remains firmly in the playoff picture, the calculus changes. At that point, standing pat becomes far more difficult to defend.

Tom Pohlad has repeatedly discussed the importance of investing in the baseball team. He has acknowledged that winning games will bring fans back to Target Field. He's spoken publicly about making bold moves and providing the resources necessary to build a consistent contender. Those comments have created expectations.

If the Twins prove over the next 10 days that they belong in the postseason race, ownership must be willing to back those words with action. That doesn't necessarily mean sacrificing elite prospects for a blockbuster trade, but it does mean finding meaningful upgrades that improve the club's chances of playing in October. The front office has to allow the team's performance to dictate its strategy. If the players earn the right to receive reinforcements, those reinforcements need to arrive.

The Hidden Cost of Doing Nothing

Standing pat often feels like the safest decision, because it avoids the criticism that comes with trading top prospects or increasing payroll. The hidden cost is far less obvious.

If the Twins miss the playoffs by one or two games after refusing to add a reliever who could have secured a handful of late leads or a bat that could have lengthened the lineup, the deadline will become impossible to ignore. Every blown save, every missed opportunity, and every close loss will be viewed through the lens of what wasn't done.

That's the risk facing Zoll at his first defining trade deadline. Tom Pohlad has spent the last year talking about investing in the roster and giving fans a reason to believe again. Those statements now require action. If Minnesota plays well enough to remain in contention, ownership and the front office must reward that performance.

Selling would be understandable if the Twins fall out of the race. Buying would be justified if they prove they're legitimate contenders. But if the Twins are still in the playoff hunt, standing pat can't be the answer. It may save prospects and payroll in the short term, but the hidden cost could be another October spent wondering what might have happened had the organization chosen to push its chips into the middle of the table.

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Are there other hidden costs to standing pat? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

It wouldn't be the worst case outcome.  The Twins would still be eligible for the lottery as its currently structured and would likely still have a decent shot at another top 6 pick.   I still see them being light buyers and they may do a bit of buying and selling.  Hancock is the only player where the Twins may give up some decent prospects for and I would be extremely happy about it.   Seattle and the Twins have done some good trades in the past so I think they would be willing to work with us.   Beyond that lets just wait and see what happens the next week with the team and then see what they do at the deadline.   We still only have a 25% shot at the playoff so this shouldn't be an all in scenario and standing pat would be fine as well.  

Jeffers can be offered the QO.   Larnach is abritration eligible another year as well as Joe Ryan.  Standing pat would be a perfectly acceptable option.  Even still another reliever would be nice.   

[Patzky]

One of those two games in question was won yesterday in part due to pickups Nance and Anderson. Could it be Zoll is way ahead of us..

[Twins GFP]

As with Falvey before, Zoll is not truly driving the bus. Tom Pohlad has continued the Pohlad tradition of saying one thing and doing another.

How many GM's do the Twins need to go through before the fans realize they are not the ultimate problem? When the Twins miss out on the postseason in a year where a few small moves could have realistically put them over the top, it is 100% on Tom.

[LambchoP]

I think we can trade Jeffers and/or Larnach and still be buyers. We just need to get young, controllable, MLB or near MLB ready arms 

[terrydactyls]

IMHO, standing pat is the dumbest path.  Either pretend that you believe the Twins are a playoff team and buy additional help.  Or face reality and admit that, even if they make the playoffs, they will be golfing soon after and trade all expiring contracts (and I'm including Ryan if he is not willing to sign an extension).  They should also be willing to listen to all offers for any player who is not "essential" (open to interpretation). 

[HarmonK03]

31 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

As with Falvey before, Zoll is not truly driving the bus. Tom Pohlad has continued the Pohlad tradition of saying one thing and doing another.

How many GM's do the Twins need to go through before the fans realize they are not the ultimate problem? When the Twins miss out on the postseason in a year where a few small moves could have realistically put them over the top, it is 100% on Tom.

How can Milwaukee have one of the best records in the league with a below average payroll.  Are their owners making all the personnel decisions.  Every decision maker in any industry has to work within the parameters given to them by their bosses.  In baseball teams have been able to build winning teams with smaller payrolls.

Should the payroll have been reduced two years ago the way it was, no.  But how high do you think it should have gone.  It's not all about money.  This offseason Falvey had at least $14m at his disposal and he signed Bell and Caratini, which at the time were questionable signings.  And allocated no resources to the bullpen.

So we make the playoffs this year and go play two games on the road and lose both.  I would prefer to build towards a sustainable winning team, not worry about one year.

[DJL44]

Standing pat is great if the goal is to finish with 78 wins this year and next year. The roster has too many DH types, not enough pitching and still no starting Shortstop. Kaelen Culpepper could fill SS, but he is currently injured and we should assume unavailable for 2026. I don’t see a way to buy a rental SS so I would sell at this deadline to build for 2027.

[tony&rodney]

The idea that an owner puts the team together is an odd one. Most owners are busy with non baseball pursuits or in meetings elated to the business side of the game. While I will say that I have no idea of Tom Pohlad's familiarity with all of the players in professional baseball, I'm willing to bet his knowledge in that area is limited. He is backing his front office, the dugout staff, and players; trying to show sustained support and interest. The players on the roster and in the system are the work of the baseball side of the franchise. I highly doubt that Tom Pohlad vetoes a trade that makes sense or sits in a meeting and says, "HEY, why don't we go ahead and get that player from San Diego ...."

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Standing pat is great if the goal is to finish with 78 wins this year and next year. The roster has too many DH types, not enough pitching and still no starting Shortstop. Kaelen Culpepper could fill SS, but he is currently injured and we should assume unavailable for 2026. I don’t see a way to buy a rental SS so I would sell at this deadline to build for 2027.

and the year after and after that and then again in 2030. Nothing like aiming hard for mediocre to satisfy this fan base. If I was Tom Pohlad and Zoll stood pat at the deadline, I'd order security to delete his access and fire his *** at 6AM the next morning I woke up.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

and the year after and after that and then again in 2030. Nothing like aiming hard for mediocre to satisfy this fan base.

 Do you see this as being a massive winning year?   Yes or No  

This team has outperformed and Joe said as much.   So then the question becomes do they have to sell off.  The 3 assets most likely to be traded are Jeffers - who can be offered QO,  Ryan  who still has all of 27 under contract,  Larnach who is arbitration eligible.     The Twins do not have to be sellers.   

If they buy lightly so be it,  but putting a lot of chips into a season or a team that is not ready to compete is mediocrity itself.    I have readily admitted I would be fined with a Hancock deal,  beyond that small deals.  If they didn't and they continued to let this team play and the title of this article "hidden cost" -  there is zero hidden cost.  All assets can be traded later, and if we miss the playoffs so be it.    What is the advantage of going to the playoffs and getting booted in the 1st round?   

[Dman]

Any decision can be second guessed no matter what direction you go.  a Few years back the Tigers sold everything they could sell at the deadline and still went on to claim a playoff spot.  Selling doesn't have to mean you are giving up. Standing pat can be better than trading the farm for one long shot chance at the playoffs and World series. It's all a matter of what your current and future goals are for your team.

In July the pen hasn't been the problem for this team as much as poor starting pitching and poor hitting in some games.  I don't think a shut down reliever would have done any better than the collection the Twins threw out there to hold Cleveland to no runs through extra innings. The current pen did though.  Not saying they don't need more shut down arms, just that there are lot's of ways to look at things.

The Twins could easily sell and buy at this deadline.  If they like the chemistry of this team they could stand pat.  Still, for as much as this team has exceeded expectations especially on the hitting side they are still below .500. 

Personally I'd sell Ryan and Jeffers and Larnach and Bell,  As @chpettit19 mentioned 2027 is going to be a nightmare for baseball if the owners are serious about changing things.  Fan engagement is likely to be down if the season doesn't start on time. If Tom is worried about fans for 2027 he shouldn't be. It's likely to be a down year no matter what.

Trading at this deadline should set this team up nicely for 2028 and beyond.  They currently have 7 prospects in FanGraphs top 100.  They have young arms breaking into the majors right now and young bats waiting for their chance.  If selling added more depth to that they could create a team that might actually have a chance at a world series run for multiple years if they get the right pieces back.  That's the chance or risk I would like to see taken versus just barely over .500 same old same old.

We'll see what they do, but no matter what they do they will be second guessed.

[ashbury]

In the current standings for the wildcard race, the last spot is held by the Red Sox with a 52-49 record.  It's starting to look like finishing at .500 won't let anybody sneak into the post-season.

How many wins will be the minimum?  How about 85?  it was 87 last year.  

Right now the Twins are 51-53.  To get to 85 wins, they need to win 34 of the next 58.  That would be a .586 winning percentage, which is higher than the Rays (best in the AL) have achieved so far this year.

Is there anything about this squad that suggests adding a few pieces will make them capable of playing like the best team in the league for two months?

I'd like to see the Twins conduct an active, wheeling-and-dealing trade deadline.  But the aim should be to acquire controllable talent that can give us a boost in 2027-29, and maybe have a little fun in 2026 while we're at it.  Not expiring contracts for a pennant push in 2026 specifically.

[terrydactyls]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The idea that an owner puts the team together is an odd one. Most owners are busy with non baseball pursuits or in meetings elated to the business side of the game. While I will say that I have no idea of Tom Pohlad's familiarity with all of the players in professional baseball, I'm willing to bet his knowledge in that area is limited. He is backing his front office, the dugout staff, and players; trying to show sustained support and interest. The players on the roster and in the system are the work of the baseball side of the franchise. I highly doubt that Tom Pohlad vetoes a trade that makes sense or sits in a meeting and says, "HEY, why don't we go ahead and get that player from San Diego ...."

Mostly I agree.  But Pohlad can easily veto a trade by saying "I ain't paying for that."

[DJL44]

If Tom Pohlad wants to spend cash on the 2026 team, that is his prerogative. There are salary dump players available. The organization cannot afford to spend talent on 2026. Teams with a budget like the Twins can’t afford to give away cheap talent.

[terrydactyls]

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 Do you see this as being a massive winning year?   Yes or No  

This team has outperformed and Joe said as much.   So then the question becomes do they have to sell off.  The 3 assets most likely to be traded are Jeffers - who can be offered QO,  Ryan  who still has all of 27 under contract,  Larnach who is arbitration eligible.     The Twins do not have to be sellers.   

If they buy lightly so be it,  but putting a lot of chips into a season or a team that is not ready to compete is mediocrity itself.    I have readily admitted I would be fined with a Hancock deal,  beyond that small deals.  If they didn't and they continued to let this team play and the title of this article "hidden cost" -  there is zero hidden cost.  All assets can be traded later, and if we miss the playoffs so be it.    What is the advantage of going to the playoffs and getting booted in the 1st round?   

I agree that "all assets can be traded later" but they would be traded for diminished returns. 

[HarmonK03]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Mostly I agree.  But Pohlad can easily veto a trade by saying "I ain't paying for that."

But has he done that since taking over, none of us know.  But everyone is making the assumption he has.  In my opinion based on his comments that if Zoll came to him with a reasonable request it would be approved.

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 What is the advantage of going to the playoffs and getting booted in the 1st round?   

This team, with the hole they've dug for themselves by now, would have to be playing at the level of a division winner, going into the post-season, simply to make it to the post-season.  That in turn would elevate their chances against their first-round opponent.

Not that I see it happening.  But going to the playoffs as a wild card isn't worthless, if the team elevates itself to make it.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I agree that "all assets can be traded later" but they would be traded for diminished returns. 

Diminished how so?  With the potential strike,  Ryan getting traded for just as much prior to the season than now.   Larnach if he keeps hitting could increase value and a comp pick for a QO for Jeffers could be just as valuable as a prospect.   

Just stating there may not be a hidden cost at all.    

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 Do you see this as being a massive winning year?   Yes or No  

This team has outperformed and Joe said as much.   So then the question becomes do they have to sell off.  The 3 assets most likely to be traded are Jeffers - who can be offered QO,  Ryan  who still has all of 27 under contract,  Larnach who is arbitration eligible.     The Twins do not have to be sellers.   

If they buy lightly so be it,  but putting a lot of chips into a season or a team that is not ready to compete is mediocrity itself.    I have readily admitted I would be fined with a Hancock deal,  beyond that small deals.  If they didn't and they continued to let this team play and the title of this article "hidden cost" -  there is zero hidden cost.  All assets can be traded later, and if we miss the playoffs so be it.    What is the advantage of going to the playoffs and getting booted in the 1st round?   

I think you mean Tom, not Joe. From Tom's statements, he doesn't believe this team is capable of winning a World Series, and winning a World Series is the goal.

Quote

But Pohlad expressed confidence in general manager Jeremy Zoll, saying, "I think JZ’s done a phenomenal job,” and was emphatic that whether it’s this summer or in upcoming offseasons, he understands that Twins fans are clamoring to see ownership commit to building the roster.

“This is a ‘build and they will come’ situation,” he said. “The fans are not going to come back based on words. They're going to come back once they see investment in the team and success on the field. I know that.

“Early on, I may have made comments like, 'We've got to build a business that can support more investment on the field.' Well, to build the business, we've got to win. And to win, we've got to put a better product on the field. There does need to be an upfront investment made. But when we make an investment, we have to be successful. We have to [expletive] win. If we do that, then people will come and it will all work.”

from July 10th article https://www.mlb.com/news/tom-pohlad-discusses-2026-trade-deadline-twins-payroll or the Athletic's coverage https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7436928/2026/07/10/minnesota-twins-tom-pohlad/

[Chad93]

If they get to the playoffs with this roster they have 2 chances slim and none there not close to a Championship level team 

[mikelink45]

Not sure of the articles conclusion.  Many of the statements are circular - we could do this but we might not do this...

I am indifferent.  The team will not win the WS and that is the real goal.  Time to reshuffle the roster rather than just saying everyone can play everywhere.  Roster construction is crucial.  And learning how to transition prospects into stars is essential too.

The reason Cleveland and Milwaukee succeed each year is the fact their system knows how to produce pitchers.  What is our developement strength?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

27 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think you mean Tom, not Joe. From Tom's statements, he doesn't believe this team is capable of winning a World Series, and winning a World Series is the goal.

from July 10th article https://www.mlb.com/news/tom-pohlad-discusses-2026-trade-deadline-twins-payroll or the Athletic's coverage https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7436928/2026/07/10/minnesota-twins-tom-pohlad/

Yes Tom,  a Pohlad never the less.  At that same breakfast he stated the team had outplayed their sum of parts by having such a great clubhouse.     He is talking out of both sides of his mouth,  just like when he said they would be buyers and bring in more bullpen help in the offseason.  I guess he though signing Rogers to a $2 million contract and trading for Banda was enough.    He has tried to thread a needle all year by having a decent team to increase attendance while utilizing minimal prospects in trades.   

Rebuilding the bullpen has honestly gone about as well as can be expected, but even still it is not a shutdown bullpen for the playoffs.   

Ill gladly wait and see what happens.  I think the most plausible scenario is them being buyers and sellers but who knows at this point.  

[terrydactyls]

33 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

But has he done that since taking over, none of us know.  But everyone is making the assumption he has.  In my opinion based on his comments that if Zoll came to him with a reasonable request it would be approved.

I agree.  I was just responding to the comment that Pohlad can't veto a trade.

[terrydactyls]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Diminished how so?  With the potential strike,  Ryan getting traded for just as much prior to the season than now.   Larnach if he keeps hitting could increase value and a comp pick for a QO for Jeffers could be just as valuable as a prospect.   

Just stating there may not be a hidden cost at all.    

The "potential strike" makes Larnach and Ryan more valuable now than post season.  If there is a prolonged strike (or work stoppage), both of these players are pretty useless as trade targets next year.

[NYCTK]

Not only did this team screw up by standing pat in 2023 at the trade deadline, and their refusal to add any pieces prior to the 2024 offeason. But they also refused to add at the 2024 trade deadline. 3 straight opportunities that they decided to punt on success strictly for monetary gain. 

As painful as it was to rip off the bandaid last trade deadline, it was the first action in 2 years that showed the front office was actually making a decision about how they wanted the team to progress.

I will similarly be upset this offseason if they stand pat. Buy or Sell. Do anything you do with conviction. 

[Andy MacPhail]

My hope is that Zoll will glean from what he had learned from LAD, 10 years ago. I agree that Tom Pohlad should bring some credence to what he had said. Frankly, I had hoped that he had Zoll go out & make a safe MLB RP for a MLB bat trade after he let Falvey go, before now. A high leverage RP is someone that we could easily trade away for a profit at the deadline if things don't work out. 

I also agree with the consensus that in the Twins position; that it makes the most sense to sell off players in demand who can be substituted, for players who are controllable & fits a need for us to be more competitive now.

[HarmonK03]

14 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

. I agree that Tom Pohlad should bring some credence to what he had said. Frankly, I had hoped that he had Zoll go out & make a safe MLB RP for a MLB bat trade after he let Falvey go, before now

I do not think it is in the best interests of any team to have owners making suggestions of who should be signed or what holes need to be filled, they can play fantasy baseball if they want to do that.  If they do not trust their staff to have the knowledge and expertise to know what holes to fill and how to fill them they should be firing them and bringing in new people.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

In the current standings for the wildcard race, the last spot is held by the Red Sox with a 52-49 record.  It's starting to look like finishing at .500 won't let anybody sneak into the post-season.

How many wins will be the minimum?  How about 85?  it was 87 last year.  

Right now the Twins are 51-53.  To get to 85 wins, they need to win 34 of the next 58.  That would be a .586 winning percentage, which is higher than the Rays (best in the AL) have achieved so far this year.

Is there anything about this squad that suggests adding a few pieces will make them capable of playing like the best team in the league for two months?

I'd like to see the Twins conduct an active, wheeling-and-dealing trade deadline.  But the aim should be to acquire controllable talent that can give us a boost in 2027-29, and maybe have a little fun in 2026 while we're at it.  Not expiring contracts for a pennant push in 2026 specifically.

100 times this. Some objectivity would go a long way in this discussion. The Twins can use an upgrade at every lineup spot but CF and catcher, and Jeffers has to be traded. We have some nice prospects that are close - some will make it, others will not. We need the additional talent only trading some guys can bring. 

[thelanges5]

If you keep Ryan, you’d have him and Bradley as a 1-2 punch in the wild card round. I like our chances there but ALDS would be a challenge at best. 

I think you need Jeffers to remain competitive. You’d also be trading him to the teams you are going to be competing with. It’s not my money, but I’d keep him and extend the QO. 

The big question then is how do you add to the bullpen without giving up too much prospect capital? Can the offense keep going without Larnach, Bell? That’s why Zoll makes the big bucks. I’m interested to see what he can do.