Why the Twins Should Immediately Start Extension Talks with Taj Bradley

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have spent the last several seasons searching for long-term stability in their rotation. They believe they found part of that answer when they acquired Taj Bradley, and his performance so far this season broadly affirms that. Through 19 starts, he has a 3.85 ERA in 107 2/3 innings, and has struck out over 27% of the batters he's faced.

Bradley is still three-plus years away from free agency, but that doesn't mean the Twins should wait. In fact, the months ahead represent the best opportunity they'll have to negotiate a contract extension that benefits both sides. With Bradley set to become arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, Minnesota has one last chance to offer him a chance to trade long-term financial security for the upside that comes with going year-to-year through the arbitration system.

For a stretch earlier this summer, there were legitimate questions about whether Bradley had fully recovered from the right pectoral inflammation that sidelined him in May. Those concerns have largely disappeared. Bradley opened the season looking like one of the American League's better young starters. Through his first 47 innings, he owned a 2.87 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 52 strikeouts against just 17 walks.

Everything changed after his injury. Minnesota gave Bradley only one rehab appearance before bringing him back to the major leagues. Whether they simply accelerated his return or Bradley was still feeling the effects of the injury, the results weren't there. Over his next five starts, he posted a 6.57 ERA and 5.57 FIP, while striking out 28 batters and walking 13 in 24 2/3 innings.

Since then, however, the version of Bradley that the Twins envisioned has returned. Across his next five starts, he compiled a 2.32 ERA and 3.29 FIP while striking out 38 batters with only 10 walks in 31 innings. He recorded back-to-back double-digit strikeout performances against Houston and Cleveland and worked at least seven innings in three of those five outings. That's the type of pitcher Minnesota believed it was acquiring. He stumbled in his first start out of the break, against the Cubs, but even that outing was better than his line will look.

Contract extensions are all about timing. Wait too long, and the player becomes too expensive. Pull the trigger too soon, and you risk investing in a player destined to underperform and disappoint. Bradley is entering the sweet spot. He's about to begin arbitration for the first time, meaning his earning power is about to increase significantly. At the same time, he still hasn't landed the life-changing contract that many players seek once they establish themselves in the majors, and the first trip through arbitration doesn't offer that, anyway. He has a long way to go to reach the massive money that the game offers players who reach or approach free agency.

For Bradley, an extension would provide financial security regardless of what happens over the next several years. For the Twins, it could lock in one of their top starters through multiple free-agent seasons, while creating greater payroll certainty in the short term. Minnesota would essentially be betting that Bradley continues pitching like the frontline starter he has shown he can be for much of 2026. If that happens, the contract could quickly become one of the organization's best values.

The Twins wouldn't be entering unfamiliar territory. Several young pitchers have recently signed extensions before reaching arbitration, creating a relatively clear framework for negotiations. The biggest agreement came when Chase Burns signed a seven-year, $105 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds. That contract reset the market for pre-arbitration pitchers. Burns reached that figure despite having considerably less major league experience than Bradley, though he's also considerably better than Bradley is. More realistic comparisons may come from the next tier of deals.

Boston signed Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55-million contract that includes a club option for 2030. While Bello averaged 2.6 rWAR during the previous two seasons, he has struggled this year and currently owns a -1.3 rWAR. Cleveland reached a five-year, $48-million agreement with Tanner Bibee, who has produced a 3.88 ERA, 4.16 FIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings across the past three seasons.

Baltimore committed to Shane Baz after acquiring him from Tampa Bay, signing the right-hander to a five-year, $68 million extension. Over the last two seasons, Baz has posted a 4.60 ERA, 4.05 FIP, and 8.9 K/9. In a move that offers a slightly cleaner match for Bradley's situation, the O's also signed Kyle Bradish this weekend, extending their other top righty on a five-year deal worth $90 million. Bradish is both older and a year closer to free agency than Bradley, so modify that deal to be a five-year pact worth $75 million and to include a pair of club options, and you're in the ballpark.

Those contracts establish a logical starting point for discussions with Bradley. Given his age, upside, and flashes of top-of-the-rotation production, it's reasonable to expect Bradley's camp would seek a deal at or above that buzzy Bello-Bibee-Baz-Bradish tier, especially if he finishes 2026 pitching the way he has over the past month.

Of course, extensions require both sides to see value. Bradley may prefer to bet on himself and maximize his earnings through arbitration before testing free agency. Many players take that route, especially when they believe their best seasons are still ahead.

The Twins can't control that. What they can control is making the offer. Minnesota has often talked about building around homegrown talent and young players entering their prime. Bradley fits that timeline perfectly. He's under club control through 2029, but every strong season makes a future extension more expensive.

This winter may represent the only opportunity to buy some of those free-agent years before Bradley's value climbs even higher. If the Twins believe he's part of the next winning core (and his recent stretch suggests he absolutely can be), they shouldn't wait for the price tag to rise. They should begin those conversations as soon as possible.

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What will it take to sign Bradley to a long-term deal? Leave a comment and start the discussion

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think this would be a fantastic idea.  All pitcher contracts are risky, but even more risky is to not have good pitchers.  If something like 6/$75M would get it done, that seems like a good ballpark to be in. It would cost the Twins some money in the near term but likely be a bargain on the back end.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I also think that this would be a good starting point for Tom Pohlad to start investing in the team.  It's not signing a $300M+ free agent, but it's a reasonable first major task.  

[laloesch]

I 100% agree.  THIS is a pitcher you lock up immediately.  Sign him to a 5 or 6 year deal.

[Linus]

I can get behind this idea as long as we get the first two years of free agency. He’s 25 so he may want to hit free agency earlier so he can get another big contract during his career. 

[Dman]

The Twins have rarely extended starting pitchers.  The injury risk as arms creep over the 30 years old mark makes it a tough gamble for small market teams. Even Lopez whom they did extend proves their point getting TJ at exactly age 30.  

Still even with a 5 year deal Bradley would only be 29 so if they are ever going to get ahead of the game and do it he would be the rare arm that would makes sense for them.  The Twins or his agent might want to wait and see how the new CBA works out first, if their is mutual interest I think this is a case where it makes sense for the Twins to take a leap of faith that his arm stays healthy.

I don't have a lot of hope it will get done, but it's hard to find good arms.  You can see at this deadline pretty much every teams is looking for arms. We'll see what the Twins decide. Maybe Tom has a more open pocket book and appetite for risk.

[thelanges5]

It would be wise and financially prudent for the Twins to identify some of their young talent to offer a deal like this. We have seen many of the small to mid market teams do this in recent years.

[terrydactyls]

An extension should be a no-brainer.  On the surface, it appears riskier than it really is.  If the Twins can get Bradley to sign a 8-year, $120M contract, that would put his end-of-contract (age 32) salary at about $25M.  That sounds excessive, right?  But that's 8 years from now.  $25M for a pitcher in 2035 might be what a middle of the road starter or a slightly above average reliever would be signed for.  Baseball salaries always go up, never down.

[mnfireman]

Looking at Spotrac Contracts, there aren't too many comparisons for Bradley by age and years of team control:

Logan Webb is probably the closest I saw, He signed an extension before his age 27 season that bought out his last 2 years of Arb and his first 3 years of FA, 5 years/$90 MM and he's a FA before his age 32 season

Brandon Pfaadt signed an extension before his age 27 season that bought out his last year of pre-arb, all 3 years of Arb, and 1st year of FA, 5 year/$45 MM guaranteed contract, with a team option of $21 MM, with a $1 MM buyout, with a possible mutual option of $21MM - 7 years/$90 MM total contract if options are picked up and he's a FA again before his age 34 season.

Tanner Bibee signed an extension before his age 26 season that bought out his last year of pre-arb, all 3 years of Arb, and his 1st year of FA - 5 years/$48 MM with a $1MM buyout of a team option for his 2nd year of FA. If the option is picked up the contract becomes 6 years/$68 MM and he's a FA again before his age 32 season.

There are others that have contracts that bought out more pre-arb, were International signings, or were just too long ago, but these 3 give a pretty good idea what a Bradley extension would look like.

[DataNerd]

Always depends on if he wants to do it, but this is a great time for the team to do it because there is a good chance Bradley will trade some of his expected earnings if he doesn't sign for set-for-life money.  750k signing bonus, never made more than MLB minimum, hard to pass up something that would probably be between 75-100M, especially as a pitcher.

[Parfigliano]

How do you contract with a guy when neither the owner or player know what the rules under a new CBA will be?

[rdehring]

Agree with an extension, just not sure what you mean by 'immediate,' Cody.  Expect it makes more sense to have these discussions over the winter.  Is he eligible for arbitration?  If so, that would be a good time to do it.  Also, must consider what Dman mentioned above regarding the CBA.  So, my thoughts would be sometime between the arbitration process and opening of spring training, whenever that will be, after the new CBA has been signed.

[DataNerd]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

How do you contract with a guy when neither the owner or player know what the rules under a new CBA will be?

There has been an uptick of long-term extensions this year because nobody knows and the players/teams know that voiding existing contracts is off the table in negotiations.  There may be a maximum contract length that is shorter than what Taj could get now, so if he waits until the new CBA is signed he might not legally be able to get as many years as he would like to increase his minimum career earnings.

[Wedman13]

18 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

How do you contract with a guy when neither the owner or player know what the rules under a new CBA will be?

This is a really good point to an interesting conversation.  While I agree with you, the Red's didn't see the hurdle, maybe dumb on their part or smart.  

Just so scary these days investing in pitching.  Probably the most important position on the team, then an overnight a guy is out for a year with UCL tear.  Makes me miss the days of a 90mph fastball being serious heat.  These guys arms are falling off.

No thanks to being a GM these days

[Dman]

31 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

There has been an uptick of long-term extensions this year because nobody knows and the players/teams know that voiding existing contracts is off the table in negotiations.  There may be a maximum contract length that is shorter than what Taj could get now, so if he waits until the new CBA is signed he might not legally be able to get as many years as he would like to increase his minimum career earnings.

Yeah I think IIRC that in the new CBA free agents signed by another team the max is 5 years and original team is 6 years.  So if passed and that is a big if max contract years would be 6.  So if teams\players want to go longer than that now might be the last time they can do that.

Personally I think the perfect mid point for the Twins and Bradley would be a 5 year deal.  He gets his life changing money and doesn't have to worry about losing out on a big payday if his arm gets injured or he regresses. He would only be 29 when that contract is up and if he has performed well would set himself up for an even bigger payday after that.  That seems like a decent compromise for both sides if you ask me.

Maybe Bradley would want to go longer hard to say, but even if they went 8 years and price was right I'd still think the Twins would\should be interested.  The Twins know him best so we'll see if they do anything or not.

[Dman]

53 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

How do you contract with a guy when neither the owner or player know what the rules under a new CBA will be?

I agree with you.  I think it will be hard as leverage can change depending on the outcome.

My two cents on this. First it seems doubtful the owners will get everything they want in the new CBA and with what players said at the all star break (i.e. Baseball, the sport has never been in a better place with current rules in place) it seems changing things will be hard to do.

Still one has to calculate what the future looks like both ways if doing deals before that agreement is complete. Unless an entire season is cancelled I don't see the players moving off their position and the PR hit both ways could really hurt the game and everyone's pocket book. 

Even if changes are made there is going to be some type of grace period for teams to get ready for a cap.  Since the Twins are so far away from what the cap would be I don't think negotiating a contract with Bradley should matter too much for either side especially if they only go 5 years.

Still it would be nice to know what the rules will be and as others have mentioned on this board some teams are hedging their bets by signing guys to 8 year deals while they can. So teams or player agents are preparing for those changes to happen even if they don't come to fruition. It's going to be an interesting offseason in a bad way IMO.

[Larry Janisewski]

4 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

It would be wise and financially prudent for the Twins to identify some of their young talent to offer a deal like this. We have seen many of the small to mid market teams do this in recent years.

The Brewers have signed 3 minor leaguers with no major league experience to long term contracts and all 3 of them a in the majors contributing to the team with the best record in baseball. Of course the key is identifying the right players.