Why the Twins Should Immediately Start Extension Talks with Taj Bradley

The Minnesota Twins have spent the last several seasons searching for long-term stability in their rotation. They believe they found part of that answer when they acquired Taj Bradley, and his performance so far this season broadly affirms that. Through 19 starts, he has a 3.85 ERA in 107 2/3 innings, and has struck out over 27% of the batters he's faced.

Bradley is still three-plus years away from free agency, but that doesn't mean the Twins should wait. In fact, the months ahead represent the best opportunity they'll have to negotiate a contract extension that benefits both sides. With Bradley set to become arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, Minnesota has one last chance to offer him a chance to trade long-term financial security for the upside that comes with going year-to-year through the arbitration system.

For a stretch earlier this summer, there were legitimate questions about whether Bradley had fully recovered from the right pectoral inflammation that sidelined him in May. Those concerns have largely disappeared. Bradley opened the season looking like one of the American League's better young starters. Through his first 47 innings, he owned a 2.87 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 52 strikeouts against just 17 walks.

Everything changed after his injury. Minnesota gave Bradley only one rehab appearance before bringing him back to the major leagues. Whether they simply accelerated his return or Bradley was still feeling the effects of the injury, the results weren't there. Over his next five starts, he posted a 6.57 ERA and 5.57 FIP, while striking out 28 batters and walking 13 in 24 2/3 innings.

Since then, however, the version of Bradley that the Twins envisioned has returned. Across his next five starts, he compiled a 2.32 ERA and 3.29 FIP while striking out 38 batters with only 10 walks in 31 innings. He recorded back-to-back double-digit strikeout performances against Houston and Cleveland and worked at least seven innings in three of those five outings. That's the type of pitcher Minnesota believed it was acquiring. He stumbled in his first start out of the break, against the Cubs, but even that outing was better than his line will look.

Contract extensions are all about timing. Wait too long, and the player becomes too expensive. Pull the trigger too soon, and you risk investing in a player destined to underperform and disappoint. Bradley is entering the sweet spot. He's about to begin arbitration for the first time, meaning his earning power is about to increase significantly. At the same time, he still hasn't landed the life-changing contract that many players seek once they establish themselves in the majors, and the first trip through arbitration doesn't offer that, anyway. He has a long way to go to reach the massive money that the game offers players who reach or approach free agency.

For Bradley, an extension would provide financial security regardless of what happens over the next several years. For the Twins, it could lock in one of their top starters through multiple free-agent seasons, while creating greater payroll certainty in the short term. Minnesota would essentially be betting that Bradley continues pitching like the frontline starter he has shown he can be for much of 2026. If that happens, the contract could quickly become one of the organization's best values.

The Twins wouldn't be entering unfamiliar territory. Several young pitchers have recently signed extensions before reaching arbitration, creating a relatively clear framework for negotiations. The biggest agreement came when Chase Burns signed a seven-year, $105 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds. That contract reset the market for pre-arbitration pitchers. Burns reached that figure despite having considerably less major league experience than Bradley, though he's also considerably better than Bradley is. More realistic comparisons may come from the next tier of deals.

Boston signed Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55-million contract that includes a club option for 2030. While Bello averaged 2.6 rWAR during the previous two seasons, he has struggled this year and currently owns a -1.3 rWAR. Cleveland reached a five-year, $48-million agreement with Tanner Bibee, who has produced a 3.88 ERA, 4.16 FIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings across the past three seasons.

Baltimore committed to Shane Baz after acquiring him from Tampa Bay, signing the right-hander to a five-year, $68 million extension. Over the last two seasons, Baz has posted a 4.60 ERA, 4.05 FIP, and 8.9 K/9. In a move that offers a slightly cleaner match for Bradley's situation, the O's also signed Kyle Bradish this weekend, extending their other top righty on a five-year deal worth $90 million. Bradish is both older and a year closer to free agency than Bradley, so modify that deal to be a five-year pact worth $75 million and to include a pair of club options, and you're in the ballpark.

Those contracts establish a logical starting point for discussions with Bradley. Given his age, upside, and flashes of top-of-the-rotation production, it's reasonable to expect Bradley's camp would seek a deal at or above that buzzy Bello-Bibee-Baz-Bradish tier, especially if he finishes 2026 pitching the way he has over the past month.

Of course, extensions require both sides to see value. Bradley may prefer to bet on himself and maximize his earnings through arbitration before testing free agency. Many players take that route, especially when they believe their best seasons are still ahead.

The Twins can't control that. What they can control is making the offer. Minnesota has often talked about building around homegrown talent and young players entering their prime. Bradley fits that timeline perfectly. He's under club control through 2029, but every strong season makes a future extension more expensive.

This winter may represent the only opportunity to buy some of those free-agent years before Bradley's value climbs even higher. If the Twins believe he's part of the next winning core (and his recent stretch suggests he absolutely can be), they shouldn't wait for the price tag to rise. They should begin those conversations as soon as possible.

What will it take to sign Bradley to a long-term deal? Leave a comment and start the discussion