What Should We Expect from Minnesota Twins in Jeremy Zoll's First Draft in Charge?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The 2026 MLB Draft gets underway on Saturday, and for the first time since 2017, the Twins will execute their strategy without Derek Falvey leading the room. That responsibility now belongs to Jeremy Zoll, who took over when Falvey parted ways with the team at the end of January. Every front office has certain player traits it values more than others. Sometimes it's power. Sometimes it's athleticism. Sometimes it's command over velocity. Over the last decade, Falvey's drafts revealed a few clear patterns. The question now is whether those patterns continue under Zoll, or whether we start to see some subtle philosophical changes.

If you look back at the Falvey era, one trend stands out: the Twins heavily prioritized premium defensive positions in the first round. Seven of their nine first-round picks under Falvey were either shortstops, starting pitchers, or center fielders. The only exceptions were Trevor Larnach and Aaron Sabato. That's not exactly a surprising strategy. Premium positions are generally viewed as the most valuable, because those players can always move down the defensive spectrum if necessary. A shortstop can become a second or third baseman; a center fielder can move to a corner outfield spot; and a starting pitcher can always end up in the bullpen. The opposite isn't true.

It's a philosophy that plenty of organizations share. Whether those choices have produced the results the Twins hoped for is another discussion. Some picks have become potential cornerstones of the organization, while others have fallen well short of expectations. Larnach has developed into a solid major-league left fielder. Walker Jenkins still looks every bit like one of baseball's top prospects. Kaelen Culpepper and Marek Houston have both gotten off to impressive starts in professional baseball and appear to have bright futures. On the other hand, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee haven't quite lived up to the lofty expectations that come with being top-10 overall selections, while Aaron Sabato still hasn't reached the majors and Keoni Cavaco is now playing independent baseball.

Every organization misses in the draft, so this isn't about saying Falvey's approach was right or wrong. The more interesting question is whether Jeremy Zoll shares those preferences. That starts with this year's draft.

There's a very good chance the Twins continue targeting premium positions in the first round. In fact, this year's class almost sets up perfectly for that. The top two players on many draft boards are prep shortstop Grady Emerson and UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky. Another prep shortstop, Jacob Lombard, has also been linked near the top of the draft, while college right-hander Jackson Flora is another player who could hear his name called early. If the Twins stick to the same positional philosophy they've shown over the last decade, they'll have plenty of options.

Where things could become more interesting is how Zoll values certain player traits. One thing that always stood out during the Falvey era was the type of hitters the Twins seemed to gravitate toward. They consistently targeted players with advanced hit tools and raw power, but with questions about either their ability to access that power in games or their plate discipline.

Jenkins fits that description; so does Lee. Luke Keaschall and Houston fall into that category, as well. None of those players entered the draft with massive power projection. Instead, they profiled as hitters who consistently put the ball in play and hit line drives. That's been a pretty clear organizational preference.

The same could be said on the pitching side. Falvey's front office often leaned toward high-upside arms, even if they came with a little more risk. Riley Quick, Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, James Ellwanger–they're all talented pitchers with legitimate upside, but each entered pro ball carrying some significant level of uncertainty. Maybe it was inconsistent command, an injury history, or maybe they were simply raw and needed significant development. Whatever the case, it always seemed like the Twins believed in their pitching development group and their ability to maximize those arms once they entered the organization. That confidence showed up in the players they selected. Will Zoll see things the same way?

Personally, I don't think we should expect a complete overhaul. The Twins still have Sean Johnson leading the scouting department, and much like Falvey did, Zoll will likely rely heavily on the evaluations coming from that group. It's not as though Johnson is suddenly going to throw out years of scouting philosophy because there's a new president of baseball operations. Organizations don't typically operate that way.

But at the same time, every executive has certain traits they value a little more than someone else. Maybe Zoll is more willing to chase power at the plate, and maybe he prefers pitchers with cleaner deliveries and better command over pure velocity. Beyond skill sets, there are questions of draft philsophy to consider, more broadly. Will Zoll have a different idea of how best to spread the money the team spends among its picks in the top 10 rounds? Will he have a firmer or more flexible stance with players and agents demanding huge bonuses?

That's what makes this weekend's draft so intriguing. It's the first real opportunity to see Zoll put his fingerprints on one of the most important responsibilities that comes with running a baseball organization. The people making many of the evaluations are still in place. The overall philosophy has produced plenty of talented prospects, even if not every first-round pick has worked out. There may be some subtle tweaks, and there may be a different emphasis on certain player traits. But if you're expecting Zoll to completely reinvent the Twins' draft strategy in his very first year, you're probably going to be disappointed. The differences, if they exist, will probably be much smaller than that.

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[Whitey333]

The MLB draft is probably the most inconsequential and more of a crap shoot then the drafts of NFL, NBA.and NHL.  It generally takes at least 2-3 years of development to see if the guy can play ball.  There are obviously very notable exceptions as a few top picks do succeed.  With the Twins it's been more frustrating.  Fir every Joe Mauer having a great career there are dozens of Jose Miranda's that slip away into oblivion.  Hard to get excited about the Twins draft.  After all they are all suspects until they prove themselves.

[tony&rodney]

The scouting department probably has 90+% say in who is picked. Zoll isn't out watching the draft eligible players. At least I don't think is. Calvin would actually go watch a few amateurs once in a while. 

I'm guessing that Zoll might have a say in general philosophy once the top 200 players are off the board.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The scouting department probably has 90+% say in who is picked. Zoll isn't out watching the draft eligible players. At least I don't think is. Calvin would actually go watch a few amateurs once in a while. 

I'm guessing that Zoll might have a say in general philosophy once the top 200 players are off the board.

There is a ton of video now. I would be surprised if Zoll hasn’t watched video of a few dozen players. I am sure Sean Johnson has watched video on hundreds.

[DJL44]

Zoll is the head, but Sean Johnson is the assistant GM in charge of amateur scouting and the draft.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

There is a ton of video now. I would be surprised if Zoll hasn’t watched video of a few dozen players. I am sure Sean Johnson has watched video on hundreds.

Yes, video is a part of the process. Video doesn't tell enough to make a decision where big money is invested. The first thing that comes to mind for me with video is source and context. There is a reason that MLB has these evaluation camps where clubs can watch the players in person.

[thelanges5]

Don’t get cute with the #3 pick. Take Emerson, Cholowsky, or Lackey. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

My personal opinion is they take the safe pick at 3,  the best player left of the 3 then we may see some tweaks.  Now this could get tested though which I will discuss.  

We have seen tweaks throughout the years,  more power less hit tool early on.   Originally primarily only taking college pitchers then around 2021 they really leaned into taking 1-2 HS pitchers each year.  

The biggest thing is the Twins have generally punted C for the last 10 years.  Now they took Jeffers with a 2nd round pick (which was considered a major reach at the time) and Khadim Diaw in the 3rd.  Otherwise several in the 8-10 round range or late in the draft.   I remember last year thinking Ike Irish being available would be an extremely smart pick in the 1st and they took Houston.  Sitting here today I think Houston is the better player of the 2.  Irish still has questions regarding his defense and Houston's power and speed is better than anticipated and the defense is already MLB level.   The hit tool was expected to be pretty good,  it was just whether he could do enough damage.   

So if Lackey is there at 3 do they take him?  This will be the test.  My personal opinion is yes.  Lackey had better offensive numbers than Irish and plays elite defense.  Add in the Twins have had evaluators at every single one of Lackey's games.  

Otherwise I expect small tweaks that effectively follow the same gameplan they have been using.  

[HerbieFan]

Personally I don't expect it to look much different than under Falvey.  Take whichever of the "Big Three" falls to you and then load up on college arms.

[Mike Sixel]

If Lee played the entire year at third, he'd be about tenth in fwar....... That's living up to the pick for sure. 

Assuming they stick to plan of the last few years, I expect on if the top three, followed by pitching and more pitching. 

[twinzcynic]

All I ask is that we don't go heavy on lumbering corner outfielders who can really hit (their ceiling is 15 hrs) and can't field a lick.

[Sampson5]

Don't think much changes maybe some minor tweaks but probably stays pretty similar considering zoll has been here so assuming he's agreed with the draft strategy. My hope is they bet on power more often alot of the drafts are full of hit tool guys with power questions same with other tools like speed,defense . With # 3 they gotta take whoever is left of the top 3 be tragic if they took a worse player to save money for later in the draft if you pick that high it's gotta be bpa imo 

[Blyleven2011]

Draft ... 

Good read sam ...

What i have seen in the past is that other organizations have selected players  after the twins have selected in the first round that have made their MLB debut either the same year or next and succeeded , it's hard to do but can be done  ...

It's hard to swallow when teams get better players ( mlb ready ) in the first round  after twins selection , Angel's Neto ,  Arizona's Carroll and some pitchers that go to bullpen and next year are premium starters the next year are some ...

Did falvey hire the best professionals ( his words not mine ) when he changed personal and cleaned house in the organization when he took over ...

[1985Fan]

I hope the organization understands that a focus on defensive ability for all position prospects is needed. It sounds like Houston is defensively MLB ready, so that is a great pick and a departure from most of Falvey past early round picks. 
I thought Falvey’s philosophy for pitching was to pick large body college pitchers in the late rounds and develop their velocity as they mature. That strategy has worked for the most part. Keep doing that. 
With Sean Johnson in charge of scouting, I don’t expect big changes. 

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

All I ask is that we don't go heavy on lumbering corner outfielders who can really hit (their ceiling is 15 hrs) and can't field a lick.

Past the second round, what you described is a positive outcome.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Don’t get cute with the #3 pick. Take Emerson, Cholowsky, or Lackey. 

The White Sox and the Rays may have the luxury to “get cute”. They can essentially offer pick #3 slot money ($9.7M) and see if the player they like best will take it. Emerson might take pick #3 money to go #1 which would leave the White Sox with $1.6M to use elsewhere in the draft.

The Twins are just going to pick the best guy remaining and give him a slot value bonus.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just to show how tightly grouped the top 3 picks are,  if they were to be included in the top 100 list - 1 evaluator would put Cholowsky at 19,  Emerson at 24,  Lackey at 25.   Flora would then be 49 and Booth is outside the top 100 at 110.   

Salas is rated currently as a top 20 prospect and has a current value of around 40 on the trade calculators (highly subjective).   You are getting an elite talented prospect - Chowolsky and Lackey are extremely polished with extremely high floors.   Emerson is the best high school prospect since Bobby Witt Jr.  

[Dman]

The Twins don't have to do much thinking for their first pick.  They just need to take the last player left of the top 3.  It will be interesting to see if they go bat or arm at 43.  There should be some intriguing players at that pick.

After that I hope they go arm heavy.  They have been light on arms everywhere in the system this year except maybe A ball.  They get and will have decent position players from their International signings, but they don't get much for arms there.  I am hoping for a draft somewhat similar to last years where they take more arms in the top 5 rounds and then later like usual.  

They'll get their big bat early and they have players waiting at AAA for chances at the MLB level.  They've used all their AAA arms.  Time to restock the system with more arms.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The White Sox and the Rays may have the luxury to “get cute”. They can essentially offer pick #3 slot money ($9.7M) and see if the player they like best will take it. Emerson might take pick #3 money to go #1 which would leave the White Sox with $1.6M to use elsewhere in the draft.

The Twins are just going to pick the best guy remaining and give him a slot value bonus.

I don't see any of these players willing to take a discount.  Add in that you have the Giants who are actively stating they will overpay to try to get Chowolsky, Emerson or Lackey to fall to 4.   They traded a Bailey to the Gaurdians to get the #29 pick and increase their bonus pool.   

[amjgt]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I don't see any of these players willing to take a discount.  Add in that you have the Giants who are actively stating they will overpay to try to get Chowolsky, Emerson or Lackey to fall to 4.   They traded a Bailey to the Gaurdians to get the #29 pick and increase their bonus pool.   

There was an interesting think-piece that I read maybe a month ago (might have been Baseball America) that talked about the perfect storm situation that the Giants are in, where they could go scorched earth and violate all of the MLB Draft spending rules. 

I haven't heard much about it since, but it's an interesting concept. 

Many teams violate the first tier of bonus pool penalties. It's purely a financial penalty. After 5% overage things get harsh. Losing future draft picks. No team has ever done that. 

Once you hit 15% you've maxed out the penalties. You lose your next two first round picks (and maybe next year's second round pick). That's harsh. You also pay a 100% financial penalty on the overage. But here's the thing, once you clear 15%, there are no additional penalties. So, at that point you might as well get really crazy and double or triple your bonus pool. 

No team has ever been in as good of a position to pull that off as this year's Giants. They have deep pockets and they aren't eligible for a top 10 pick next year even though they suck this year. So, what's stopping them from telling Roch that they'll pay him $15M? And then paying $4-5M to all the rest of their picks who might be elite HS players looking for a big bonus, to forego college? They could load up on ten or more 1st/2nd round talents.

So that scares me, since the Twins are drafting right before them.

[DocBauer]

As stated, just take the best available at #3 and don't overthink it. 

Take a couple arms early and make sure you end up with at least a dozen. 

This is a big year for HS arms. That makes it a perfect time for the Twins to go over total $ and add the extra 5% available that doesn't incur a penalty. This would be the FIRST TIME, but a great time. That's something like an extra $500-600K. That might be enough to get a top prep arm to sign with us.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, DocBauer said:

As stated, just take the best available at #3 and don't overthink it. 

Take a couple arms early and make sure you end up with at least a dozen. 

This is a big year for HS arms. That makes it a perfect time for the Twins to go over total $ and add the extra 5% available that doesn't incur a penalty. This would be the FIRST TIME, but a great time. That's something like an extra $500-600K. That might be enough to get a top prep arm to sign with us.

HS arms are the biggest bust rate players. Just say no.