5 Truths About the 2026 Twins We Can't Ignore

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

We're 86 games into the season, meaning the 2026 regular season is officially over halfway through. The Twins currently have a record of 41-45, in what has been a fairly eventful year. It hasn't necessarily all been good, but we've had a little bit of everything. There have been breakout performances, disappointing seasons, injuries, blown leads, and enough frustration to make this first half feel a lot longer than 86 games. With that in mind, here are my five biggest takeaways from the first half of the 2026 season.

The first is that Byron Buxton is a legitimate superstar. I think a lot of Twins fans have known just how good Buxton is whenever he's healthy, but it finally feels like the rest of the league is catching on, too. He's currently hitting .276 with 25 home runs and seven stolen bases. Those 25 homers are tied for second-most in baseball, while his .581 slugging percentage ranks third in the league. He's also doing it with some of the highest-quality contact in the sport. His barrel rate has climbed all the way to 19% of his batted balls, which tells you he's consistently making loud, optimal contact. We've always known the talent has been there. The only thing that's ever really held him back has been staying on the field—and occasionally, the inconsistency that has to result from not being able to play every day. Health permitting, this has a chance to be the best season of Buxton's career. He's been worth every bit of the praise he's received, and without him, this Twins team would find itself in an even tougher spot than it already is.

Takeaway number two is that the bullpen is exactly what we thought it was going to be. After last summer's fire sale at the trade deadline, when the Twins traded away several of their key relievers, there were a lot of questions surrounding what this bullpen would look like entering 2026. Unfortunately, those concerns have proven to be justified.

The Twins currently rank dead last in bullpen ERA (5.50) and 29th in WHIP (1.57), and that unit has been responsible for several late-game collapses throughout the first half. Yoendrys Gómez has been a really nice addition since arriving in early May, but outside of him, there really haven't been many reliable options. It's hard not to be frustrated watching this group struggle because honestly, this was one of the more predictable problems the Twins were going to have entering the season. The front office chose to move a large chunk of its bullpen depth last July, and rebuilding an entire relief corps in one offseason was always going to be difficult. The greatest source of frustration, perhaps, is that they don't seem to have tried very hard.

The third takeaway is that the Twins' starting rotation is still very much a work in progress. Outside of Joe Ryan, there just hasn't been much consistency. Taj Bradley has looked phenomenal at times, but then he'll turn around and give up three home runs in his next start. The same can be said for Zebby Matthews. 

Connor Prielipp has really struggled over the last month and a half, but had exactly the kind of start you'd have hoped for on Sunday. Bailey Ober's enigmatic velocity loss is unlikely to be cured by the weeks he's spent on the injured list with elbow inflammation, but he might at least bring the team some stability when he returns next month. Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas have both shown flashes of why the Twins are excited about them, but both have also battled injuries and inconsistency; Abel might miss the rest of the year after arthroscopic elbow surgery. When you look at the rotation as a whole, it feels like a group full of middle-to-back-end starters, with only one true frontline arm in Ryan.

To be fair, it's also a very young rotation, so growing pains were always going to happen. Still, how this group performs during the second half is going to be one of the biggest storylines to watch over the rest of the season.

Takeaway number four—and this one may be hard for some fans to accept—is that the hitters the Twins were hoping would take the next step really haven't done so. Luke Keaschall has been playing much better lately, but he's still hitting just .245. Royce Lewis is sitting down at .214. Matt Wallner is back in Triple-A.

Ryan Jeffers had a really nice offensive season before getting hurt, Brooks Lee has continued to swing the bat well, and obviously, Buxton has been everything you could ask for. But outside of those guys, the lineup hasn't consistently gotten enough production from some of its younger core hitters.

The Twins' offense, as a whole, actually hasn't been bad. There have been plenty of games where they've put together quality at-bats and have a bunch of runs to show for it. But there's also another level this lineup could reach if players like Keaschall and Lewis began performing closer to what the organization envisioned. Especially with Jeffers currently sidelined, the offense could really use another impact bat stepping up over the second half.

And finally, takeaway number five is that defense simply has not been one of the Twins' strengths. Lee is currently tied with Jakob Marsee of the Marlins for the lowest Defensive Runs Saved total in baseball at -10. Tristan Gray isn't far behind at -8, and several other regular starters also find themselves sitting in the negatives.

As a team, the Twins rank inside the bottom five in Major League Baseball in Defensive Efficiency. Defense really hurt this club throughout the first half. There have been far too many extended innings, too many extra outs, and too many blown leads that can be traced back to spotty defensive play. When you combine inconsistent defense with inconsistent pitching, it's really not that surprising the Twins find themselves sitting several games below .500.

There's still plenty of baseball left to play, and there's certainly enough talent on this roster to make things interesting if they put together a strong second half. But through 86 games, it's been a pretty frustrating season overall. It certainly hasn't been all bad. Buxton has looked like an MVP-caliber player, and there are still reasons to be optimistic moving forward.

At the same time, though, the bullpen has struggled exactly as expected, the rotation remains a question mark outside of Joe Ryan, several key hitters haven't taken the leap many hoped they would, and the defense has consistently hurt this team. Those are my five biggest takeaways from the first half of the 2026 season for the Minnesota Twins.

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[Saxophone Joe]

Geez. You'd think we'd have won 25 games by reading this article.

"The Twins offense actually hasn't been all that bad?" Huh? Remember when we batted like .180 last year with the bases loaded? Now that was bad! 

"All the negativity in this town SUCKS." 

 

[Saxophone Joe]

Here's another truth (imo):

Kody Clemens has lowkey been the team MVP over the past 2 months

[Mike Sixel]

Talking about Lee's defense, without the context of him moving positions? Or Bell no longer in the field? Or Wallner being gone? 

[Linus]

I’ve enjoyed watching this team. Maybe because my expectations were realistic going into the season - about 75 wins.  I think the handwriting was on the wall when they didn’t improve the pen over the winter. The problem with building a pen “on the fly” is that by the time you patch one together the season is cooked. Buck has been fantastic and Jeffers was a pleasure to watch hit before he got hurt. I was never a Taj fan when he was in Tampa but I’m changing my opinion- his command is improving just enough for him to succeed. Lee is moving in the right direction but for all his improvement is still a league average hitter. I’m glad they have been aggressive about moving guys to spots where they can be decent with the glove. There are pieces to build around but too many holes to fill before they can be really good. I just hope Zoll makes decisions at the deadline with a 5 year plan in mind. If they start squandering prospect capital on this club that would be a big mistake. 

[thelanges5]

1. Bullpen has been the biggest disappointment because they knew about it and haven’t done much of anything to address it. 

2. The defense has been bad, but they’ve now changed the infield 100% from opening day. Keaschall is arguably better in right field than he was at second base. If they start playing Kreidler instead of Gray, they’ve at least made meaningful changes to the defense.

3. Love me some 🦌🚛

4. I’d say the rotation has been holding its own. Especially considering that Prielipp got called up earlier that I thought and Paredes was at AA to start the season. 

5. The overall offense is out performing expectations. The post-hype prospects are not (Keaschall, Lewis, Wallner, Martin etc)
 

 

[LastOnePicked]

Here's my Twins truth: I wish Shelton had been managing this club for the last five years.

[twinssporto]

I actually enjoy watching this team now. It feels like they are a team of scrappers and have some heart. By the way, the Twins have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the American League right now. The starting pitching, even with the injuries, has been a surprising positive.

Bullpen....crap.

Overall, better than I expected. I think Shelton has helped out a lot too.

 

[Possumlad]

Nice article Sam, and I mostly agree. Trading Larnach & Jeffers for some real-deal bullpen help would make this a fun team. I don't think you need to sell much beyond that... Maybe Bell if you can get a real piece back.

[Twins GFP]

Truth #6:

Despite everything and everyone, the Twins are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. If they decided to do ANYTHING to bolster the bullpen, they would be fighting for the division. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Its been roughly as I expected to begin the season. Young guys coming up showing flashes.

Its been MUCH more fun watching the younger players develop instead of all the constant retreads and overcooked veterans stay for WAY too long as in recent seasons. I have a lot more patience for a guy like Keaschall, Prielipp, Paredes, etc than any washed up vet. 

Kody Clemens has been one of the top players on the team this year. Good to great defense anywhere you put him and the bat has come around. Career year or new norm? I dont know, but its been a heck of a good time watching the energy he brings every day. 

Buck has been great when on the field. 

The Rotation is performing about how youd expect with all the injuries. Ryan is showing why he is necessary to the team long term. My hope is the team can somehow keep him in a Twins uniform. The rest are all young and/or rookies. 

Offense has the most runs in the AL? Or near that. Keaschall has massively underperformed expectations. The move to RF should help his defensive numbers atleast. 

The BP is bad. Everyone knew that going in. Banda getting hurt after the great streak he was on makes it worse. Gomez has been great. I think if it were my decision, Id be talking to the Red Sox about Aroldis Chapman and trying him away. We'd have our closer. Gomez moves to 8th inning set up. Morris in the 7th. Maybe get another solid arm or 2 and you have yourself, theoretically, an acceptable BP. It would allow you to clear out guys like Funderburk, Rogers, Adams, maybe even Orze. Ober comes back, im hoping its one of them sent down and Paredes can stay up in the pen. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't know how the rest of Lewis's season will go. But his bat has been completely different since he came back up compared to the beginning of the year (since June 6th, 277/322/518 with a strikeout rate of only 22%) which is certainly an improvement from the time before his demotion, which was 163/261/279 and a strikeout rate of 31%.)

I'd also argue he looks pretty good at 1B defensively.

Anyway, very much still small samples. But he is playing different now than he did the first months of the year.

[Craig Arko]

The obvious truth not to overlook is the poor attendance at Target Field.

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Geez. You'd think we'd have won 25 games by reading this article.

"The Twins offense actually hasn't been all that bad?" Huh?

 

I think many writers are terrified to say something overtly positive. They assume they'll get pushback. They probably will, but it'll be from miserable people who like to complain about everything. 

This offense has been good. It's ok to say that because they've literally scored the most runs in the AL. It's incontrovertibly true.

Do I expect them to end the year there? No. Not really. But that doesn't change what's happened.  

[Saxophone Joe]

15 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I think many writers are terrified to say something overly positive. They assume they'll get pushback. They probably will, but it'll be from miserable people who like to complain about everything. 

This offense has been good. It's ok to say that because they've literally scored the most runs in the AL. It's incontrovertibly true.

Do I expect them to end the year there? No. Not really. But that doesn't change what's happened.  

For sure. This is the first year I've really ever consumed Twins content online - Gleeman's podcast, the new one with Tyler Duffey and Dan Hayes (which has become my favorite), Skor North, etc. Pretty much the tone is, Welp, I guess they're not as bad as we thought. And, of course, the old standby (which is getting tired af imo): Imagine if we still had Varland and Duran. Well, we did have those guys last year and we have the same record this year after 86 games. So...? 

I do appreciate the insight and passion on here. And some pretty good writing, too. 

[weitz41]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Here's my Twins truth: I wish Shelton had been managing this club for the last five years.

100% and Zoll (unlike Falvey) for allowing needed changes to happen.

I'm pleasantly surprised by the rotation without Pablo. It's shame SWR didn't take a step forward. Such is baseball.

I think the defense needs to be graded as April, May vs July, August. Same for the player's defense. Buxton is about the only player starting in the same position he did opening weekend.

BP? I blind squirrel could have seen that coming...

[Road trip]

Truth 6:

Twins offense has been incredibly "clutch" thus far.    https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1&params=bases|RISP|ML|2026|bat|AB|

As much as we like to complain about players hitting with runners in scoring position, this year the Twins as a team are hitting .288 which easily leads MLB (Philly is a distant 2nd place at .266).  You can look at OBP, 1st.  Slugging, 2nd.  BABIP, a thoroughly out of character .340!

Can it continue?  Possibly not, but the stats back up the performance so far.  We can certainly point to the failings of individual players, and I think everyone *feels* like the Twins need to upgrade offense at several positions, but as a whole the Twins offense has performed well beyond expectations.

[amjgt]

27 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

For sure. This is the first year I've really ever consumed Twins content online - Gleeman's podcast, the new one with Tyler Duffey and Dan Hayes (which has become my favorite), Skor North, etc. Pretty much the tone is, Welp, I guess they're not as bad as we thought. And, of course, the old standby (which is getting tired af imo): Imagine if we still had Varland and Duran. Well, we did have those guys last year and we have the same record this year after 86 games. So...? 

I do appreciate the insight and passion on here. And some pretty good writing, too. 

I'm a decade-plus Gleeman and the Geek consistent listener, a long term on again off again SKOR listener, and a recent spotty listener of Destination the Show.

My biggest problem with GaTG is that Aaron just flatly refuses to be positive for more than 10 seconds. And taken further, he often does his best to stifle John's positivity. But the Twins content they put out is second to none, so yeah, put me down for about 4 hours per week :) 

I tend to wander over to SKOR when:
a) the Twins are hot and I want more content
b) It's speculation season. They have ZERO problem wildly speculating, whereas Aaron and John tend to stay away from that

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, Possumlad said:

Nice article Sam, and I mostly agree. Trading Larnach & Jeffers for some real-deal bullpen help would make this a fun team. I don't think you need to sell much beyond that... Maybe Bell if you can get a real piece back.

At first blush The article is not great.  But masterfully, Sam got the responses he intended, so maybe actually it is. :) great dialogue, good writing!   there is something a bit odd going on with this club, and it's fun to see it play out.

[LA Vikes Fan]

29 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

100% and Zoll (unlike Falvey) for allowing needed changes to happen.

I'm pleasantly surprised by the rotation without Pablo. It's shame SWR didn't take a step forward. Such is baseball.

I think the defense needs to be graded as April, May vs July, August. Same for the player's defense. Buxton is about the only player starting in the same position he did opening weekend.

BP? I blind squirrel could have seen that coming...

I completely agree. One of the refreshing things about this season has been Twins' willingness to change when things aren't working, something that Rocco and Falvey always seemed unwilling to do. We tried Lee at SS. He couldn't cut it in the field, so we moved him to 3B where he may turn into an above average regular. Same with Keaschall. Paredes showed more than we expected so now he has a rotation spot, not just a bulk role after an opener. We've brought up players, we've sent down players who aren't performing. We went on the waiver wire for relief pitchers and actually found one (out of about five) who can actually perform and be an important part of the bullpen. We have moved guys around the diamond to improve the defense. Shelton and Zoll are trying to make the team better; they aren't just sitting back and hoping that doing the same thing will lead to different results.

I think the big take away from the first half of the season is that this team could actually compete for a Wild Card spot this year if they can even just get to having an average bullpen. I don't think we can get there just with calling up guys may have or just when Sands returns. We are going to have to make trades for bullpen guys. I wonder if it's worth doing it because teams are going to want some of our better prospects for older bullpen pictures. I'm a relentless optimist but even I don't think we have a chance of doing anything in the playoffs even if we could miraculously sneak in.  Any trade for bullpen piece should be for a guy under 30 with a future if we're giving up a decent or better prospect. Still, it's been a lot more fun to watch than I expected.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

I think many writers are terrified to say something overtly positive. They assume they'll get pushback. They probably will, but it'll be from miserable people who like to complain about everything. 

This offense has been good. It's ok to say that because they've literally scored the most runs in the AL. It's incontrovertibly true.

Do I expect them to end the year there? No. Not really. But that doesn't change what's happened.  

I have a text chain that's been going for years with some other friends and family who are diehard baseball fans. We all agree that they aren't a great team this year, but they are at least interesting to watch this year. Can't always say that about bad teams. Last year at this time I certainly wasn't tuning in as often.