Twins 13, Red Sox 6: This Team is Hot

[bunsen82]

15 minutes ago, arby58 said:

OTOH, Rocco had Ryan AND Lopez at the top of the rotation. Shelton has let Taj Bradley throw 92, 100, 104, and 106 pitches in his four starts. For context, the Twins had a starting pitcher throw 100 pitches in 28 of 162 games last year (17%). They've already done it 6 times in 17 games (35%). Even with big leads, Rocco had a quick hook, Shelton not so much.

To be fair the big leads have allowed Shelton to be much more judicious in leaving them out there,  especially with a bullpen that has been overworked.   Shelton has tried to get every out he can with the starters.  With this bullpen its a necessity.  

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Congrats to Buxton becoming the all-time Target Field home run king.

But I gotta be honest:  thinking back to the early days of Target Field, I'm kinda surprised it's not Jose Bautista

It was for a while IIRC! I was at Target Field on a day he hit two bombs, one was the second longest ever here (again IIRC).

[The Great Hambino]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd bet it was Dozier. That short left field corner was where he lived for a few years.

Not a bad guess, but apparently it was Kepler

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

If you want a hot take,  in his current form Lewis is not an asset to the team.  The defense is subpar,  the hitting is predicated on hitting home runs.  There are way too many empty at bats.  As bad as Lee has been at short,  some of Lewis's throws have left me the same way about Lewis at 3rd.  

Lewis platoons with Gray when he returns?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have been in almost every game this season. My gut told me that we'd have a good series against DET, TOR & BOS. After the Skubal/ Ober victory with the bats coming alive, I stated we could go 10-0. Right now, we should be 8-0. There were doubters entering this BOS series. After this game, I hope we have more believers. 

For years, I have been pessimistic about the Twins, even though they've looked good on paper. After the big sell-off of most of the Twins' impact players, I had all but given up on the Twins, even lost all interest in the Twins' prospects. All this changed when Falvey left with all his puppets. Twins weren't disappointing because they didn't have enough money (although, Falvey convinced many that it was so). They were disappointing because Falvey adopted a cheap version of the NYY model. Where defense, baserunning, offense SOs & fundamentals were insignificant. HRs were the only thing that was important. Players' evaluation & development were based entirely on wierd analytics & FA is the team's savior. Instead of being a better version of MIL/ CLE's model which is the mirror opposite of NYY.

The best offseason move was the removal of Falvey. We have a new Pohlad, new Business Opps, new Baseball Opps, new manager, many new coaches, many new young & veteran players; it takes time to gel. My hope is for Shelton to throw away the old playbook & Zoll to unlearn all that he learned under Falvey's mentorship & draw from his time in LAD. Even though we look much worse on paper now than before. Now, I'm looking into the future with much more optimism. Tom Polhad is doing the best he can under the conditions. I encourage every Twins fan to go out & support our Twins (they are our baseball team) & stop misguidingly boycotting the Pohlads by not going out to do so.

I've been absent from participating on TD for months, because I was unfortunately blocked in Brazil.

Welcome back from Brazil Doc. Were you able to escape, or did your sentence just time out?

[Senior Softball Guy]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have been in almost every game this season. My gut told me that we'd have a good series against DET, TOR & BOS. After the Skubal/ Ober victory with the bats coming alive, I stated we could go 10-0. Right now, we should be 8-0. There were doubters entering this BOS series. After this game, I hope we have more believers. 

For years, I have been pessimistic about the Twins, even though they've looked good on paper. After the big sell-off of most of the Twins' impact players, I had all but given up on the Twins, even lost all interest in the Twins' prospects. All this changed when Falvey left with all his puppets. Twins weren't disappointing because they didn't have enough money (although, Falvey convinced many that it was so). They were disappointing because Falvey adopted a cheap version of the NYY model. Where defense, baserunning, offense SOs & fundamentals were insignificant. HRs were the only thing that was important. Players' evaluation & development were based entirely on wierd analytics & FA is the team's savior. Instead of being a better version of MIL/ CLE's model which is the mirror opposite of NYY.

The best offseason move was the removal of Falvey. We have a new Pohlad, new Business Opps, new Baseball Opps, new manager, many new coaches, many new young & veteran players; it takes time to gel. My hope is for Shelton to throw away the old playbook & Zoll to unlearn all that he learned under Falvey's mentorship & draw from his time in LAD. Even though we look much worse on paper now than before. Now, I'm looking into the future with much more optimism. Tom Polhad is doing the best he can under the conditions. I encourage every Twins fan to go out & support our Twins (they are our baseball team) & stop misguidingly boycotting the Pohlads by not going out to do so.

I've been absent from participating on TD for months, because I was unfortunately blocked in Brazil.

Great perspective! Welcome back!

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

 

That just leaves the bullpen. I wouldn't trust any of these relievers in a one run game, 9th inning.

Combat this by having a five to six run lead at that point...

[Western SD Fan]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

At this point, I wonder if Royce isn't approaching the Twins about a long-term, below market extension. Considering his injuries, the security might be nice - would the Twins say yes?

I just don't see that happening at this point.  The difference between Buxton's contract and what Royce would be offered is we did see what Buxton was capable of.  I'm not sure we have ever seen what Royce is capable of up to this point in his career.  I also remember a graphic earlier this year where they showed the number of games Royce as actually played compared tohis injury time.  IIRC, he played in 270 of 810 games, that's 33%.  You're not handing any kind of extension to a guy that is playing that few of games.  Even Buxton has played in more games than that.  Since this is all for fun, let's consider a possible extension.  Lewis becomes a FA in 2029 at 30 years old and is currently making $2.85M in arbitration.  Given his current injury history and the quality of play when his has been on the field.  A contract could be $5-6M a year with heavy accelerators for plate appearances and performance with a term not longer than 4 years.  Given that scenario, Royce will likely bet on himself.

[stringer bell]

9 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Not a bad guess, but apparently it was Kepler

Dozier hit 80 homers at Target Field. Buxton passed him late last year.

[Brandon]

9 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Jeffers has been valuable. He plays catcher. He has a wRC+ of 179. He is second in the league in WPA from overturning calls. He has to be among the leagues most valuable players thus far.

I wonder how frustrated Jeffers would get with blown calls as he seems to have lots of opportunities to overturn them.  I wonder if Yankees opponents have more opportunities as well 

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lewis platoons with Gray when he returns?

Gray has been great so far, but it is only 27 plate appearances. He is a 30-year-old career minor leaguer. I'd wait a bit before giving him that much playing time.

[Coach Wheels]

10 hours ago, Nshore said:

Lewis better hurry back - he's getting Wally Pipped by Kreidler and Gray.

Baseball can be a mind boggling game.  Watching them shell Crochet was surreal and astonishing.

The longest streak of healthy games for Lewis in his career is 35; according to Google. I'm not sure how he continues to be someone we count on.

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I wonder how frustrated Jeffers would get with blown calls as he seems to have lots of opportunities to overturn them.  I wonder if Yankees opponents have more opportunities as well 

Dive in

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Gray has been great so far, but it is only 27 plate appearances. He is a 30-year-old career minor leaguer. I'd wait a bit before giving him that much playing time.

The only thing on gray is even last year was showing he was striking the ball well with good exit velocities.  2 home runs in 20 at bats is the definition of small sample size.   He was showing some things under the hood that the bat could be an asset.   

At this point I hope he can keep succeeding more so that he can reap a bit of the rewards financially and otherwise for toiling for years as a minor league.   He gets about $4200 every day he is active.   League year is something like 182 days.  

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The only thing on gray is even last year was showing he was striking the ball well with good exit velocities.  2 home runs in 20 at bats is the definition of small sample size.   He was showing some things under the hood that the bat could be an asset.   

At this point I hope he can keep succeeding more so that he can reap a bit of the rewards financially and otherwise for toiling for years as a minor league.   He gets about $4200 every day he is active.   League year is something like 182 days.  

If he continues to be successful, he could fill in at any of the infield positions vs. right handed pitching and become a platoon player. IMHO, replacing Lewis and Lee a couple times a week and perhaps Keaschall occasionally works. Also, if Clemens continues below the Mendoza Line and Gray keeps hitting, he could be an option at first base.

[Western SD Fan]

I do think that their success this year could be attributed to just the sheer number of lefties they have seen this season.  Last season, we might have seen one or two in a week or every two weeks and would always seem flummoxed by them.  The number of lefties they have seen have allowed the normal RH batters, who usually only get partial playing time, to get regular AB's and they have responded.  I don't expect this to last through to a random August game with a random LHP so I will enjoy this while I can!

[karcherd]

20 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

The longest streak of healthy games for Lewis in his career is 35; according to Google. I'm not sure how he continues to be someone we count on.

You might want to fact check Google, last year he was healthy from July 1st to the end of September.  I believe that would be more than 35 games.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

This is something that I noticed. As infuriating as it can be to watch hitters struggle out of the gate, I don't think you do them any favors with a yo-yo approach to playing time or the batting order. There's a lot more consistency and I think the hitters have responded. Something to be said for not having to look over your shoulder all the time.

Martin is playing routinely because they’ve faced 10 LH starters in 17 games.

Keaschall & Buxton have been in some combination, in the Top 3 spots, and neither have been nearly as productive as expected.

It’s much more about fairly consistent AB’s …….,, whether a guy hits 2nd - 5th - 7th doesn’t really affect guys IMO.

[DarrenPS]

10 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Disagree very respectably.  Go young.  OBP, speed, defense.  We will never compete with the dodgers with big contracts to Pablo, Jeffers. (Ryan I struggle with)

All good to disagree. It is fine to take a mentality of "go young" and I understand that, but if you take that position you can't expect a young team to compete. Teams always need vets to compete. A team of all of the best rookies would lose to a team of average vets.

I see Joe, Jeffers & Pablo (hopefully with Buck forever) as a solid foundation to grow around while still "going young" but having the necessary vets and experience all teams need.

[Teflon]

At least when Garrett Crochet falters, he has emotional support. His family is a really close-knit group.

[AceWrigley]

14 minutes ago, Teflon said:

At least when Garrett Crochet falters, he has emotional support. His family is a really close-knit group.

And I imagine any fallout from this joke will not stick to you.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

OTOH, Rocco had Ryan AND Lopez at the top of the rotation. Shelton has let Taj Bradley throw 92, 100, 104, and 106 pitches in his four starts. For context, the Twins had a starting pitcher throw 100 pitches in 28 of 162 games last year (17%). They've already done it 6 times in 17 games (35%). Even with big leads, Rocco had a quick hook, Shelton not so much.

Seriously? If ANYONE on the staff is in the 5th - 6th - 7th innings without surrendering a run (in any season) nor having any dips in velocity, they aren’t getting pulled. This is the 2026 Taj Bradley profile.

Bradley & Ryan’s actual RESULTS are what’s driving innings - Abel’s scoreless 6 last week - Ober’s last two outings with a bit of success - same with SWR when sharp.

Not sure what you don’t get about having a MUCH, Much stronger PEN in ‘25, at least through July. If one has a strong PEN (strength of the Club) one uses it………regardless of the Manager’s name.

After July deadline they had Bradley (mediocre) Festa - Matthews (both hurt off & on) - Abel a couple starts - ………….guys that are tender or not getting hitters out are going to get pulled, again, regardless of Team nor Manager’s name.

You gotta substantiate the, “even with big leads Rocco had a quick hook” …….just saying things doesn’t make them true.

When a manager has little choice with a fairly putrid PEN, he’s going to lean on starters for innings.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

I just don't see that happening at this point.  The difference between Buxton's contract and what Royce would be offered is we did see what Buxton was capable of.  I'm not sure we have ever seen what Royce is capable of up to this point in his career.  I also remember a graphic earlier this year where they showed the number of games Royce as actually played compared tohis injury time.  IIRC, he played in 270 of 810 games, that's 33%.  You're not handing any kind of extension to a guy that is playing that few of games.  Even Buxton has played in more games than that.  Since this is all for fun, let's consider a possible extension.  Lewis becomes a FA in 2029 at 30 years old and is currently making $2.85M in arbitration.  Given his current injury history and the quality of play when his has been on the field.  A contract could be $5-6M a year with heavy accelerators for plate appearances and performance with a term not longer than 4 years.  Given that scenario, Royce will likely bet on himself.

This is correct. The question with Buxton wasn’t if he was good enough it was would he ever stay healthy. With Royce we don’t know if he is good enough or healthy enough. No way I would extend him 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

43 minutes ago, Teflon said:

At least when Garrett Crochet falters, he has emotional support. His family is a really close-knit group.

Underrated post...

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Welcome back from Brazil Doc. Were you able to escape, or did your sentence just time out?

Thanks, Tarheel. I'm still in Brazil. I really don't know what happened. But thanks to Brock, he figured it out.

[Old Twins Hat]

3 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

The longest streak of healthy games for Lewis in his career is 35; according to Google. I'm not sure how he continues to be someone we count on.

Let me help you with the syntax on that quote:  I'm not sure how he continues to be someone we can't count on.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Seriously? If ANYONE on the staff is in the 5th - 6th - 7th innings without surrendering a run (in any season) nor having any dips in velocity, they aren’t getting pulled. This is the 2026 Taj Bradley profile.

Bradley & Ryan’s actual RESULTS are what’s driving innings - Abel’s scoreless 6 last week - Ober’s last two outings with a bit of success - same with SWR when sharp.

Not sure what you don’t get about having a MUCH, Much stronger PEN in ‘25, at least through July. If one has a strong PEN (strength of the Club) one uses it………regardless of the Manager’s name.

After July deadline they had Bradley (mediocre) Festa - Matthews (both hurt off & on) - Abel a couple starts - ………….guys that are tender or not getting hitters out are going to get pulled, again, regardless of Team nor Manager’s name.

You gotta substantiate the, “even with big leads Rocco had a quick hook” …….just saying things doesn’t make them true.

When a manager has little choice with a fairly putrid PEN, he’s going to lean on starters for innings.

4/15, 5-0 lead, Ober pulled after 77 pitches.
6/3, 5-2 lead, Lopez pulled after 72 pitches.
6/19, 9-4 lead after 4 innings, Paddock pulled after 82 pitches.
6/26, 10-0 lead after 6, SWR pulled after 82 pitches.
8/1, 8-1 lead after 3, Hatch pulled after 81 pitches.
8/8, 7-1 lead after 4, Ryan pulled after 87 pitches.

My guess is with those leads, Shelton sends them back out for another inning. Keep in mind the Twins weren't a great offensive team so didn't have all that many big leads last year. Next I'll look at close games and see what that looks like.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

56 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks, Tarheel. I'm still in Brazil. I really don't know what happened. But thanks to Brock, he figured it out.

Wow, so you are in Brazil! This amazes me. I'm in my little home office in Statesville, Nort Carolina, USA, communicating with a friend in Brazil about our favorite baseball team. Doc I always appreciate your thoughtful posts. Keep up the good work and don't be a stranger. Best regards, David

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Dive in

18 of 35 against the Twins and 32 of 50 against the Yankees overturned.  

We had 28 out of 50 calls overturned that we challenged and Yankees have 21 of 38 calls overturned that they challenged.

 

[Doctor Gast]

1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wow, so you are in Brazil! This amazes me. I'm in my little home office in Statesville, Nort Carolina, USA, communicating with a friend in Brazil about our favorite baseball team. Doc I always appreciate your thoughtful posts. Keep up the good work and don't be a stranger. Best regards, David

Spent a bunch of time in Brazil & married a Brazilian & lived there for over 30 years. I've tried to follow the Twins the best I can,