Twins Fall to Bottom of The Athletic’s Hope-O-Meter

[Cody Christie]

There was a time not long ago when optimism around the Minnesota Twins felt sustainable. Competitive rosters, postseason appearances, and a growing core gave fans reason to believe. Now, according to The Athletic’s annual Hope-O-Meter, that belief has all but vanished.

The latest fan survey, which included more than 11,000 respondents, paints a fascinating picture of the sport’s emotional landscape. Across Major League Baseball, optimism is actually trending upward. A strong 72% of fans reported feeling hopeful about their favorite team, a notable jump from 66% a year ago. Baseball, broadly speaking, is in a good place when it comes to fan confidence.

That makes what is happening in Minnesota stand out even more.

At the top of the rankings sit perennial contenders and rising powers. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way at an eye-popping 99.8% optimism, followed by the Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, and Kansas City Royals. The presence of Detroit and Kansas City is particularly notable for Twins fans, as two division rivals have surged into the league’s emotional elite.

Minnesota, meanwhile, sits alone at the bottom. The Twins posted a staggering 4.3% optimism rating, the lowest mark in all of baseball. The only team even within shouting distance is the Los Angeles Angels at 5.7%. After that, the gap widens significantly, with no other franchise falling below 24%. This is not just pessimism. It is a complete erosion of belief.

What makes the drop more jarring is how recent the optimism once was. In 2022, the Twins checked in at 70.1 %, placing them squarely in the middle of the league. By 2023, that number jumped to 91.3%, good for 10th overall, and they remained near that level in 2024 at 86.3%. Even entering 2025, there was still a baseline level of confidence at 52%.

Now, that foundation has collapsed, and the reasons are not difficult to identify. On the field, inconsistency and underperformance have chipped away at expectations. Off the field, uncertainty surrounding ownership has only deepened the frustration. There was a moment last winter when it seemed possible the Pohlad family might explore a sale of the team, offering a potential reset and renewed direction. That possibility has since faded, and with it, a significant portion of fan optimism.

The result is a five-year trend line that looks less like a normal fluctuation and more like a free fall. The Twins Hope-O-Meter arc resembles a slow climb to a peak followed by a sudden and dramatic plunge. There were real highs, but the landing has been hard.

Rebuilding that trust will not happen overnight. It will take more than a hot streak or a promising prospect. Fans are looking for a clear vision, a commitment to winning, and signs that the organization understands the weight of this moment. That responsibility falls on everyone, from the front office to the clubhouse to ownership itself.

For now, the numbers tell the story. In a league where hope is rising, Minnesota has run out of it. The next chapter for the Twins will not just be about wins and losses. It will be about convincing a disillusioned fan base that there is something worth believing in again.

 

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[Brandon]

I'm a 4.3%er.  I think the moves the Twins made were good ones.  I do think we have more variance than ever before.  I don't think Twins fans are not used to not having a floor.  We can be either real good if all plyers hit, real bad or most likely a mix in between with some great, some awful, some rookies coming up, and trades and injuries.... So the question is will there be just enough good and great on the team vs bad and awful to eek out a winning season.  I believe we can.  80-85 wins is where I think we will end up.  Though I wouldn't be surprised either if we end up with 70-79 wins either 

[Sjoski]

I think it's more realistic to say:

 

60-70 wins is highly probable 

71-82 wins is an over achievement 

83+ wins is highly improbable 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

22 hours ago, Brandon said:

I'm a 4.3%er.  I think the moves the Twins made were good ones.  I do think we have more variance than ever before.  I don't think Twins fans are not used to not having a floor.  We can be either real good if all plyers hit, real bad or most likely a mix in between with some great, some awful, some rookies coming up, and trades and injuries.... So the question is will there be just enough good and great on the team vs bad and awful to eek out a winning season.  I believe we can.  80-85 wins is where I think we will end up.  Though I wouldn't be surprised either if we end up with 70-79 wins either 

To put me in the optimistic category, the projections are going to need to be 95+ wins. Even before this optimism tank job, I was done with empty playoff appearances long, long ago. I'm only interested in competing for championships. 

And I'm not doom and gloom because I do believe that if the team puts in the effort, they can put themselves in position to compete as soon as 2027, but thus far, based on free agency, payroll and the absolute disregard for roster construction, I don't see them currently putting in any effort.

[jaimedude]

This is a 54 win team as constructed. Need to move on from Clemons, Larnach, Outman, and option Brooks Lee. None of those 4 guys is hitting a lick. 

[The Great Hambino]

Now I'm not exactly Professor Optimism when it comes to this team, but being below the Angels is pretty wild

[LakesPibble]

You wanna see something wild about the Angels?

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/angels-start-season-2-0-for-first-time-of-mike-trouts-professional-career-050423924.html

15 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Now I'm not exactly Professor Optimism when it comes to this team, but being below the Angels is pretty wild

 

[The Great Hambino]

8 minutes ago, LakesPibble said:

You wanna see something wild about the Angels?

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/angels-start-season-2-0-for-first-time-of-mike-trouts-professional-career-050423924.html

 

Wow

It's hard to be surprised by the futility of a franchise that had Trout and Ohtani together for six seasons without making the playoffs, but damn

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, Sjoski said:

I think it's more realistic to say:

60-70 wins is highly probable 

71-82 wins is an over achievement 

83+ wins is highly improbable 

100% correct. I sadly expect the Twins to finish as a bottom 3 team in overall standings. Chicago White Sox will pass us this year and that will be painful. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, LakesPibble said:

You wanna see something wild about the Angels?

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/angels-start-season-2-0-for-first-time-of-mike-trouts-professional-career-050423924.html

 

Aaaaaand now they're already 2-3. 

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

100% correct. I sadly expect the Twins to finish as a bottom 3 team in overall standings. Chicago White Sox will pass us this year and that will be painful. 

Eh, no one will care by the time school is out.

And no one caring is exactly what the Pohlads deserve.

[DarrenPS]

Twins fans have always been and will continue to always be so dramatic. Am I happy with the Pohlad's? No of course not. Do we deserve to be that far at the bottom of that list? Not even close

[LakesPibble]

12 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

Twins fans have always been and will continue to always be so dramatic. Am I happy with the Pohlad's? No of course not. Do we deserve to be that far at the bottom of that list? Not even close

I think the team would love dramatic.  What they've really gotten though is apathetic.

[JADBP]

Yeah I put the twins clearly under 70 wins this season. But, not because the team in the field today underperforms—but rather because they will have to bring up all the kids and  trade Ryan + others exactly because the team on the field today is soooo bad!

This “competitive” team will likely end up in the bottom. 2-3 teams in September.  
 

I understand the optimism but then reality smacks you in the face.  
 

I wonder how long it will take for TP to figure out that fans would rather watch Jenkins and Emma struggle and learn than Larnach and Wallner striking out?!?!?  

[USAFChief]

Chief's Hopemeter running below 4.3

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

This is so sad. Maybe if the Twins would move to North Carolina, hope for the Twins will spring eternal in the human breast. In other words, "You don't miss your water until your well runs dry."

[Riverbrian]

So... forcing a go for it 2026 without adding go for it players in order to energize the fan base isn't working. 

This was the most head scratching off-season I could imagine.

These poll results are a reflection of some terrible instincts since 2023.

Pulling the financial plug after the 2023 playoff win just gut punched a momentarily happy fan base. Ahh... You guys are in a good mood... we can change that. 

Instincts should have told them to go young this off-season. Instead they invested 14 million into a fulltime DH and a backup catcher who will play 1B and DH to get playing time. While also putting together a bullpen of old crafty arms. 

Tom Pohlad is the last man standing in the front office... he is clearly in charge. We don't have to guess about the level of ownership involvement and I will no longer wonder who to look at, when the 2026 results roll in. 

Tom will get credit or Tom will get blame but we know who. 

Even with all that negativity typed by me. I am one of the hopeful 4%... until my words above are proven correct.  

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Tom Pohlad is the last man standing in the front office... he is clearly in charge. We don't have to guess about the level of ownership involvement and I will no longer wonder who to look at, when the 2026 results roll in. 

Tom has publicly demanded that he be judged on results this year.  It is going to be fascinating to see how he handles this season as a leader.  It will tell me a lot about what hope I have for the future.  

In my career I have observed that it's easy to be a CEO when times are good; how a CEO navigates adversity tells you what you need to know.   And by the looks of it there will be plenty of opportunities to navigate adversity in 2026.  

[twinstalker]

10 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

Twins fans have always been and will continue to always be so dramatic. Am I happy with the Pohlad's? No of course not. Do we deserve to be that far at the bottom of that list? Not even close

What Kool-aid are you drinking that you think the Twins don't deserve to be that far at the bottom of the list?  The only reason they won't finish 30th is because it's difficult to say anyone will finish 30th,  But they stand a really good chance.  The best chance, imo.

[DarrenPS]

57 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

What Kool-aid are you drinking that you think the Twins don't deserve to be that far at the bottom of the list?  The only reason they won't finish 30th is because it's difficult to say anyone will finish 30th,  But they stand a really good chance.  The best chance, imo.

If you think they're worse than the Rockies you aren't even really worth responding to

[ashbury]

In response to Chief's gauge:

(Also, I found a givea****meter, another in a similar vein, and an even more vulgar givea****meter, and I'm providing links instead of the direct images to those so you can decide for yourself how affronted you wish to be.  You're welcome.  The Rick-Astley-O-Meter is zero for each of these links.)

[RpR]

 

 

When your day is long
And the night, the night is yours alone
When you're sure you've had enough

Sometimes everything is wrong
Now it's time to sing along

When your day is night alone (hold on, hold on)
If you feel like letting go (hold on)
If you think you've had too much

 

Don't throw your hand, oh no
The days and nights are long
When you think you've had too much
Well, everybody hurts sometimes
Hold on, hold on, hold on
Hold on, hold on, hold on

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DarrenPS said:

If you think they're worse than the Rockies you aren't even really worth responding to

Is that what the Hope-O-Meter is supposed to be measuring?  I don't think the question posed to respondents is how their team ranks to (other) bottom-dwellers.  Colorado has had decent attendance, above 2.4M last year, in support of a ballclub that hasn't sniffed .500 for seven years.  Minnesota's fan base is in a foul mood, and it needn't be that way.  Twins ownership and their FO delegates should be studying the Rockies franchise to understand where the "fun factor" is that accounts for people coming to the ballpark for a good time even "if they don't win it's a shame." 

[The Great Hambino]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Is that what the Hope-O-Meter is supposed to be measuring?  I don't think the question posed to respondents is how their team ranks to (other) bottom-dwellers.  Colorado has had decent attendance, above 2.4M last year, in support of a ballclub that hasn't sniffed .500 for seven years.  Minnesota's fan base is in a foul mood, and it needn't be that way.  Twins ownership and their FO delegates should be studying the Rockies franchise to understand where the "fun factor" is that accounts for people coming to the ballpark for a good time even "if they don't win it's a shame." 

The Rockies also recently addressed their biggest problem by breaking the chain of internal nepo-hires and bringing in someone in Paul DePodesta that can pull their baseball ops out of the stone age.  The Hope-o-Meter is determined by direction as well as current standing.  And after the Charlie Brown-esque pulling of the football that was the potential team sale last summer, the hopes of Twins fans are pointing in the opposite direction.  Doesn't surprise me at all to see the Rockies above the Twins and a few other teams in that regard

[Cris E]

I don't understand COL fans.  They have been outright bad and management has been without a clue for a long time, and yet people buy tickets and come to games. Good for them, I'm happy they enjoy baseball, but I don't understand it.

MN, OTOH, I totally get.  We were on a long upwards trajectory that culminated in winning a playoff series for the first time ages, we had some kids on the way that were promising, we'd finally spent on some free agents that seemed to put us over the top, and in under two years we were flat on our butts with ownership lying to us. The losing was familiar, but the lying about Winning, Results and Spending were a new form of gaslighting that really showed a contempt for fans. 

All obscenities to the Pohlads. I'm going to Saints games this summer.

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I don't understand COL fans.  They have been outright bad and management has been without a clue for a long time, and yet people buy tickets and come to games. Good for them, I'm happy they enjoy baseball, but I don't understand it.

MN, OTOH, I totally get.  We were on a long upwards trajectory that culminated in winning a playoff series for the first time ages, we had some kids on the way that were promising, we'd finally spent on some free agents that seemed to put us over the top, and in under two years we were flat on our butts with ownership lying to us. The losing was familiar, but the lying about Winning, Results and Spending were a new form of gaslighting that really showed a contempt for fans. 

All obscenities to the Pohlads. I'm going to Saints games this summer.

Baseball fans go to, or regularly watch games because they are genuine baseball fans, not fair weather, here today, gone tomorrow;  end of story.

[laloesch]

22 hours ago, Sjoski said:

I think it's more realistic to say:

 

60-70 wins is highly probable 

71-82 wins is an over achievement 

83+ wins is highly improbable 

 

 

I agree.  I think this team is an easy 100 loss ballclub this season.  The pitching has talent but the offense is just abysmal, actually brutally bad.   

[shortround81]

What worries me is how long the hopelessness is going to seemingly last. This isn't just a 2026 concern.

But, considering how close we came to being contracted back in 2001, s***** baseball is better than no baseball. Right, Montreal?

[SteveLV]

They are a bottom 5 team on paper.

PLUS, they are not bringing up their young players so there is little reason to go to the games and pay money to watch older, never-going-to-be-good or great players run around the field and flail away at the plate.

I would much rather watch a 95 loss team that is loaded with youngsters ala the 1982 Twins.

If Tom Pohlad wants to REALLY build up trust with the fan base, sign Joe Ryan to an extension.  Good luck with that, by the way.  He wants out of here too.

[Sjoski]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

I don't understand COL fans. 

They built a huge party deck out in right field...called The Roof Top i believe. It’s a different world at Coors. They’ve successfully marketed the 'experience' over the standings....you’re telling the fans the score is secondary to the scenery and the social scene...why try to beat the Dodgers when you don't need to???