Is It Time to Sound the Panic Alarm On Bailey Ober?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

Coming into spring training, there was reason to believe that Bailey Ober could rebound this year. Last season never felt right. He was not fully healthy, his velocity was down, and his results suffered. The hope was that he’d get back to full strength, push his fastball toward 91 MPH, and let the rest of his arsenal do the work that has made him a reliable starter in the past. 

Ober has never relied on overpowering velocity. His game is built on command, execution, and pitch sequencing. When all of those elements are working together, he can be far more dangerous than the raw numbers suggest.

Back in 2024, Ober’s fastball averaged 91 to 92 MPH, and he could move and locate the ball well enough to miss plenty of bats that way. In 2025, a season marked by health issues and inconsistency, it dropped closer to 90 MPH. That decline might seem minor on paper, but for a pitcher like Ober, even a single mile per hour can make his off-speed and breaking pitches less deceptive. Over time, these small drops can translate into harder contact and fewer strikeouts, which is precisely what happened last season.

So far this spring, instead of bouncing back, his fastball has continued to drift lower. In his first outing, it averaged 89.9 MPH, a modest dip that could be explained as early-season pacing. Pitchers often need a start or two to ramp up, and coaches monitor pitch counts carefully, so his first outing did not raise alarms. In the second start, it fell to 88.8 MPH, a more noticeable decline that suggested the drop might not be about ramping up. 

In his third start on Tuesday, Ober’s fastball velocity dropped again, averaging 88.2 MPH and topping out at just 89.9. Each start has shown regression rather than progression.

It's not just about velocity, either. Ober’s effectiveness also depends on how well his pitch mix is playing. In that third outing, he generated only three whiffs on 58 pitches, which was a significant decrease from seven whiffs on fewer pitches in the second start. Combined with the decline in fastball velocity, it suggests that something fundamental is off. Ober’s fastball, despite over 7 feet of extension, is not going to blow hitters away, so even minor drops magnify mistakes and lead to harder contact and/or fewer strikeouts. His changeup and breaking balls, which usually play off each other to create deception, are less effective when the fastball loses life.

Spin rates, while not drastically different, have also ticked down slightly across the board. Looking at the bigger picture, these small changes over multiple seasons add up. The year-over-year velocity decline, coupled with far fewer swing-and-miss and slightly reduced pitch quality, raises real questions about Ober’s health and readiness with Opening Day just one week away. It's possible this is simply a cautious ramp-up, but it is hard to ignore the gradual pattern stretching from 2024 to now—especially because, even as he professes not to be concerned, Ober is at a loss to explain his inability to ratchet the stuff back up.

For the Twins, Ober’s struggles could have larger implications. The rotation already has questions, with Pablo López out for the year and David Festa unavailable to begin the season. Losing Ober (or having him pitch at less than 100 percent) adds another layer of uncertainty. The Twins may need to prepare contingency plans if he can't return to form quickly, which could affect everything from bullpen usage to early-season matchup strategies.

Ober’s next start will be crucial. If he can climb back toward 90 to 91 MPH and generate swing-and-miss like he has in the past, it may indicate that the early-spring dip was nothing more than a cautious ramp-up. But if he remains in the high 80s or continues to trend downward, concerns heading into Opening Day will only grow. It's a storyline worth watching closely, with the Twins set to take the field in less than a week, meaning there’s very little time to determine whether Ober is ready to pitch at full strength to start the season.

At this point, this situation is less about surface-level stats and more about the underlying signs. Velocity, whiffs, and spin rates all point to a pitcher who is not fully locked in yet. The hope is that with a full ramp-up, he’ll regain the form that made him a dependable starter. But the pattern across three starts and multiple seasons cannot be ignored, and for Ober and the Twins, the clock is ticking.

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[Parfigliano]

I think he better morph into a RH Jamie Moyer.

[DarrenPS]

I've been a Bailey fan since he debuted, my buddies all told me I was crazy at the time but I was right for awhile. it pains me to say he just might be cooked. Going to continue to hope he can just average 90 (clearly 91-92 is ideal) but at this point it's looking bleak

Positive vibes...

[Danchat]

Plenty of us in the comments section have been sounding the alarms already...

[Blyleven2011]

Panic alarm ...

The season is lost , no reason to panic  ...

The pohlads may be panicking to put fans in the stands with this " we will be competitive prediction " ....

[DocBauer]

He was throwing 90-91 in January workouts and then took a brief rest of a couple weeks before ST started. He says he feels good, and there is no injury and no pain. Assuming that's true, where did his velocity go? He's been 88-90 so far, maybe touched 91 a couple of times. He's still ONLY 30yo? This is not an "old man" or "old" arm. So either he's hurting and not telling anyone...I'm questioning that...OR he's still not mechanically in sync yet, (hoping that's the case)...OR his body type has his arm aging faster than expected. 

A healthy 30yo with somewhat limited miles just shouldn't be dropping 3mph. And those 3mph make a big difference with Ober. His extension adds a couple perceived MPH, which sets up all his additional offerings. So SOMETHING just isn't right here.

He either needs to ramp up over the next couple of weeks...hopefully...or he better learn how to drop velocity on his other offerings to compensate for changes of speed to confuse batters still, which has always been his strength as a pitcher.

I'm not in panic mode yet, but I'm approaching that area. 

Unfortunately, it's possible the Matthews vs Abel debate might be settled with both making the club and Ober going to the IL and sticking around Ft Myers for extended ST. I'm betting they roll with him to open the season and see if mechanics settle in, adrenaline kicks in, and we might see him take a step forward. But the rotation depth we thought we had may be tested sooner than hoped for or expected. 

[Jacksson]

YES.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

If he's not right by July 1

[CRF]

If he's tossing 88 mph cookies up there, it'll be batting practice for the team he's facing. Not good. 

[Doctor Wu]

7 hours ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

If he's not right by July 1

I might be willing to give him until May 1, but no longer.

[bean5302]

Ober's in a lot of trouble right now.

Obviously, ST stats are clean because players are working on things. That's how a guy like Mickey Gasper rocks 1.000 OPS' in Spring Training, after all.

Coupled with the drop in velo, there are some glaring concerns. That chase rate is not playable. 22.6% O-Swing and 85.7% O-Contact says Ober's not fooling anybody at all. He's being forced to work in the zone more despite not getting the first pitch over for a strike. If that's just a function of him working on stuff, which it shouldn't be for a veteran like him, then fine. If it's Ober's real stuff, he's absolutely cooked as a starter.

[JD-TWINS]

Strife - every day here at TD!

Ober threw 4 innings on Tuesday and didn’t break 90MPH …..4 innings - 2walks and 2 hits and 1 run. ……….. Over 8 1/3 this spring he has a 2.08 ERA - he’s NOT facing the ‘27 Yankees in the box this spring, granted. He’s coming off an injury and trying to work on refreshed - reworked mechanics. It’s Spring Training. He (& the rest of the starters) will ramp up over first 3-4 starts of the season……just like every year.

With today’s access to information/analytics, every single detail is scrutinized. Obviously, I don’t know if Ober will be able to get guys out at a reasonable rate in ‘26 but with two guys on the IL - Matthews still trying to master his craft - Ryan not exactly pitching “workhorse” innings in Spring - with ABEL/TAJ/SWR as locks in the rotation ……….. Bailey seems to be lower (or at least not worse) on the list of potential worries in the big picture.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am trying to understand...

Everybody knows that Spring Training, especially for pitchers, is 100% about season prep with virtually every single number being meaningless, yet there always seems to be a high level of panic when someone does not perform to regular season expectations during this time.

I know the word panic is used in the title for clickbait. I get it. If you want to be concerned about 3 starts and 8 IP during "practice", I get that too.

Let's stop over-reacting (for the millionth time on this site) and see where he is after a few regular season starts...

[TJSweens]

I continue to be baffled by a 6'9 pitcher who can't sit at least 93 mph with a fastball in his prime. There are some pitchers who's velo starts out a few ticks low in ST and see a jump as they get stretched out. Ober isn't one of them. If anything his best velo is early in the spring. 

Ober should have been traded in the off season while he still had any value. Some will argue that would have been selling low. I think his value was as high as it will ever be. 

[DJL44]

Is Zebby is better than Ober? If so, Zebby should move into the rotation and Ober should start working as a reliever. If not, then the Twins have no choice but to take whatever they can get from Bailey Ober.

[farmerguychris]

Not all pitchers are made to have 10 year careers, even if they start well.  Not sure if he's the kind of guy who can dial it up for 2 innings in the pen - but maybe time to consider if he can do that?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, TJSweens said:

I continue to be baffled by a 6'9 pitcher who can't sit at least 93 mph with a fastball in his prime. There are some pitchers who's velo starts out a few ticks low in ST and see a jump as they get stretched out. Ober isn't one of them. If anything his best velo is early in the spring. 

Ober should have been traded in the off season while he still had any value. Some will argue that would have been selling low. I think his value was as high as it will ever be. 

Next time you go to a stadium with a speed pitch game, find a random tall person and ask them to throw their hardest. If they can't hit at least 93mph, ridicule them relentlessly.

Throwing 93 is hard. Really hard. Height doesn't really matter for pitch velocity.
https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/06/pitcher-height-comparison-velocity-elbow-injuries-mechanics/?srsltid=AfmBOoqgTETs-R370YXnhYSyaF0RbGa9luPkj78aukaPq5fpi9u5PUbm

Luzardo is 6'0" and averaged 96.4mph on his fastball last year. Skubal is 6'3" and averaged 97.7mph. There's a higher ratio of pitchers who are in that 6'6" range at the top of the chart, but just in general, MLB teams look for tall guys as starters now.

[TJSweens]

23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Next time you go to a stadium with a speed pitch game, find a random tall person and ask them to throw their hardest. If they can't hit at least 93mph, ridicule them relentlessly.

Throwing 93 is hard. Really hard. Height doesn't really matter for pitch velocity.
https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/06/pitcher-height-comparison-velocity-elbow-injuries-mechanics/?srsltid=AfmBOoqgTETs-R370YXnhYSyaF0RbGa9luPkj78aukaPq5fpi9u5PUbm

Luzardo is 6'0" and averaged 96.4mph on his fastball last year. Skubal is 6'3" and averaged 97.7mph. There's a higher ratio of pitchers who are in that 6'6" range at the top of the chart, but just in general, MLB teams look for tall guys as starters now.

There is major difference between a random tall fan watching a ballgame and a trained 6'9 professional athlete. Your quip is rather pointless. 

The average 4 seam fastball velocity in MLB is 93.6-95 mph. I'm not asking Ober to melt down the radar gun. I'm asking him to be a tick below major league average. 

Height does not guarantee velo, however it is an advantage in achieving velo. Ober clearly does not have an efficient transfer of energy through his delivery. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am trying to understand...

Everybody knows that Spring Training, especially for pitchers, is 100% about season prep with virtually every single number being meaningless, yet there always seems to be a high level of panic when someone does not perform to regular season expectations during this time.

I know the word panic is used in the title for clickbait. I get it. If you want to be concerned about 3 starts and 8 IP during "practice", I get that too.

Let's stop over-reacting (for the millionth time on this site) and see where he is after a few regular season starts...

I'd agree that statistics that measure on productivity are often useless this time of year. Particularly the kinds of numbers you see on a baseball card.

But biometric related numbers seem to be a bad omen as they would indicate physical limitations. How hard you can throw seems more akin to how much Miguel Sano weighed on opening day. Or how many inches Eddie Gaedel grew when he showed up to camp.

[laloesch]

14 hours ago, Danchat said:

Plenty of us in the comments section have been sounding the alarms already...

Exactly.

And yet we are being told by the homers in this forum that were being ridiculous and making outlandish statements.  Really? The guy is not even hitting 90?  Perhaps Ober needs to start throwing a knuckle ball to save his career.

[The123bigalguy]

He's a head case, isn't he? I like him at his best. A good sports psychologist might be the ticket.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

46 minutes ago, The123bigalguy said:

He's a head case, isn't he? I like him at his best. A good sports psychologist might be the ticket.

“Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical” -Yogi Bera 

i do not agree at all with the head case label, and really dislike it, it’s over simple and disrespectful.

Ober speaks very well to the mechanical aspect of his game, and his process adds some complexity to his mechanics in order to take advantage of his height and extend his release point.

i think some day he’ll make a great pitching coach or tv broadcaster, hopefully in the interim he’ll make a very good starting pitcher again

[Mike Sixel]

I have real doubts at this point, but I'm giving him 4-5 starts to see what's up. 

[farmerguychris]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have real doubts at this point, but I'm giving him 4-5 starts to see what's up. 

I just hope that 4-5 starts doesn't turn into 9-10 or 15-20 because they want to let the 'veteran' figure things out as we lose most of his starts.  I've seen some pretty long leashes for this franchise.

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I just hope that 4-5 starts doesn't turn into 9-10 or 15-20 because they want to let the 'veteran' figure things out as we lose most of his starts.  I've seen some pretty long leashes for this franchise.

Definitely been a real issue with this team!

[Cris E]

4 hours ago, TJSweens said:

The average 4 seam fastball velocity in MLB is 93.6-95 mph. I'm not asking Ober to melt down the radar gun. I'm asking him to be a tick below major league average. 

That's really a surprising number. For the average to be a window that reaches down to 93.6 there have to be a lot of pitchers living at 90-91 to offset the huge number of guys that regularly throw 98 these days. Seriously, everyone hits 94 easily and many starters can reach back for 96+, so who is dragging it down that far? 

As far as how it affects Ober, not much at all. His game has always been long extension and changing speeds. Go look at him on Baseball Savant and you'll see no walks, lots of chase, huge offspeed value. The problem for him isn't a loss of velo so much as his control falling apart. While he's never been a strikeout guy he should be much close to 7 k/9 than the 3 he's posted so far, and that is paired with a 10 BB/9 that's multiples of his career 1.94 rate.  

People are seizing on the MPH because it's easy and available during spring training, but if he's on his game he should still be able to make it work. Those changeup guys live in another world, but they have to be perfect. The reason he worked on new mechanics should be to make it easier throw strikes and repeat his pitches as much as it increases velocity. Hopefully he can keep making progress as the calendar flips towards next week and into April. 

[puckett_34]

This guy’s cooked. 

[bean5302]

22 hours ago, TJSweens said:

There is major difference between a random tall fan watching a ballgame and a trained 6'9 professional athlete. Your quip is rather pointless. 

The average 4 seam fastball velocity in MLB is 93.6-95 mph. I'm not asking Ober to melt down the radar gun. I'm asking him to be a tick below major league average. 

Height does not guarantee velo, however it is an advantage in achieving velo. Ober clearly does not have an efficient transfer of energy through his delivery. 

No, the point is tall pitchers don't have any major inherent advantage in velo. It is NOT a significant advantage in achieving velocity. I even linked you to Driveline's analysis and gave you examples of short (6'0") pitchers near the top of the MLB starting pitcher leaderboards. If you'd like to provide some credible source which conflicts with Driveline's analysis, please feel free.

[TJSweens]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

No, the point is tall pitchers don't have any major inherent advantage in velo. It is NOT a significant advantage in achieving velocity. I even linked you to Driveline's analysis and gave you examples of short (6'0") pitchers near the top of the MLB starting pitcher leaderboards. If you'd like to provide some credible source which conflicts with Driveline's analysis, please feel free.

I'm not impressed with thre Driveline analysis, using a whopping sample of two pitchers. In any event, the analysis doesn't disprove the laws of physics. Arms and legs are levers. Longer levers possess more potential energy. Driveline doesn dispute that.

There are other factors in achieving velocity. I never denied that. In fact that has been my point. Ober seems to lack the ability to efficiently transfer potential energy to kinetic energy. Again, I'm not asking Ober to be one of the hardest throwers in baseball. I'm asking him to be just below average. Right now he's 5 mph below average.

[Doctor Wu]

On 3/20/2026 at 10:01 PM, bean5302 said:

Throwing 93 is hard. Really hard. Height doesn't really matter for pitch velocity.

I'm no pitching analyst, but I've heard that the arm angle and the higher delivery point of the pitch can be a factor in the effectiveness of taller pitchers too. Is that true or another nonsense argument?