Twins Should Look to Baltimore for First Base Help

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

As the dust settles from MLB's Winter Meetings, the Orioles made one of the loudest moves by signing Pete Alonso to take over first base and provide the middle-of-the-order thump they have been seeking. It is a win for Baltimore, but it also creates a very real roster squeeze. The Orioles now have three players who primarily fit at first base or designated hitter, yet they only have two spots to place them. That imbalance should immediately draw the attention of a Twins team that desperately needs help at first base.

Minnesota has multiple avenues to improve its lineup, but first base remains one of the clearest openings on the roster. There are multiple free-agent options, but the Twins are operating on a shoestring budget with needs in the bullpen, too. Baltimore’s situation changes that, because the combination of Alonso’s arrival and the Orioles' depth makes them one of the few clubs that can trade from a surplus. If the Twins want to find a solution without paying premium free-agent prices, this is the kind of opportunity they cannot afford to overlook.

Here’s a look at Baltimore’s two first base options, besides Alonso. Each comes with different levels of intrigue.

Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle represents the most straightforward option for Minnesota, because his situation in Baltimore feels increasingly cramped. He is entering the final year of team control, which limits long-term risk for any acquiring team. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $7.8 million in his final arbitration season. That also means the Orioles have motivation to listen, especially after his worst season to date. In 2025, he hit seven home runs with a .653 OPS in 89 games, a steep drop from what he showed earlier in his career. His track record still matters, though, because through his first five seasons, he produced a .265 average with a .766 OPS and a 113 OPS+. He has been an above-average bat for most of his career.

Mountcastle’s cost should be manageable, because the Orioles no longer have room to give regular at-bats to Alonso, Mountcastle, and either Samuel Basallo or Adley Rutschmann. (On any given day, one of the latter two can catch, but the team will want the other's bat in the lineup most of the time.) That positional overlap lowers the asking price and allows the Twins to explore a short-term addition, without spending significant prospect capital.

His pros are easy to see. Mountcastle has proven big-league power, a history of above-average production, and the appeal of a one-year commitment if things do not work out. The cons include the uncertainty around his recent decline, questions about his ability to rebound, and limited defensive value beyond first base. Still, the affordability and upside make him a natural fit for Minnesota’s needs.

Coby Mayo
If the Twins want to chase ceiling rather than floor, Coby Mayo is the more ambitious target. Mayo was once a consensus top-50 prospect with big raw power and a profile built around offensive damage. His big-league performance has not met expectations so far, as in 102 career games, he has hit .201 with a .634 OPS and an OPS+ of 79. Even with those struggles, though, his long-term value remains significant. He is not arbitration eligible until 2028, and is under team control through 2031.

The pros with Mayo revolve around projection, as his power potential remains enormous and his underlying contact quality hints at untapped upside. Last season, his 74.7 mph bat speed would have ranked in the upper quartile of the league if he qualified. In September, he posted a .941 OPS with five homers. He could give the Twins a long-term answer at first base if he develops into the hitter scouts once envisioned.

The cons stem from risk, as his early performance raises reasonable questions about how quickly he can adjust and whether he will ever reach his ceiling. Acquiring him would require a substantial trade package, and Minnesota would need confidence in its ability to smooth out the rough edges in his game. Minnesota also doesn’t have the greatest track record with young hitters in recent seasons. He is the higher-ceiling play, but also the higher-volatility one.  

Baltimore created a roster bottleneck by signing Alonso, and the Twins happen to have a clear path to playing time at first base. Whether Minnesota targets Mountcastle for short-term stability or Mayo for long-term upside, the Orioles are one of the few organizations positioned to deal from depth. The alignment is there, and it is a path the Twins should seriously consider pursuing.

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Should the Twins trade for Mountcastle or Mayo? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[rdehring]

My question is whether or not one of the Twins excess corner outfielders would be a match for Mountcastle?  Seems to me either Wallner or Larnach would be a fair swap that solves a logjam for both teams.  And in Larnach's case, he will be making less than Mountcastle, but not all that much less to be a good budget fit.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Mayo, yes Mountcastle is a hard no. If we're going short term and him and France were the two choices I'll take France.

[High heat]

12 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Mayo, yes Mountcastle is a hard no. If we're going short term and him and France were the two choices I'll take France.

Have you seen Mountcastle play?  He is significantly better than France! 
 

If you could get Mountcastle for reasonable trade I would t mind him.

 

Mayo is going to cost much more in prospect/talent.  I would ask if Mayo for SWR package is something Orioles would be interested in.

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, rdehring said:

My question is whether or not one of the Twins excess corner outfielders would be a match for Mountcastle?  Seems to me either Wallner or Larnach would be a fair swap that solves a logjam for both teams.  And in Larnach's case, he will be making less than Mountcastle, but not all that much less to be a good budget fit.

That would be a great trade for the Twins but the Orioles have outfielders. They will be looking for pitchers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd be interested in Mountcastle to help for a season. I'd even think about Ober going there, as salaries are similar, if Baltimore attached a decent prospect.

I'd much prefer Mayo, and I'd be curious what the ask would be. Lopez and Ryan are non-starters in my opinion, but I'd at least listen after that. I do think he is close to ready to be a middle of the order bat the Twins have been missing since Nelson Cruz left.

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Mayo, yes Mountcastle is a hard no. If we're going short term and him and France were the two choices I'll take France.

Mayo has a value of 18

Mountcastle is a -3 

Mountcastle has upside as much as Hoskins.  I would still prefer O'Hearn,  but If you got Cash and Mountcastle for a lottery ticket - with a net salary around 3-4 Million.   It wouldn't be a terrible option.  He is one of the best defensive 1st baseman.   With Mayo are you willing to give up Lopez?  

 

[TNtwins85]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That would be a great trade for the Twins but the Orioles have outfielders. They will be looking for pitchers.

Exactly! Earlier this fall in a different article I had proposed a deal that went something like. Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers and SWR for Rutchman, Mayo, Bradfield, Watts-Brown and a lotto ticket like Wellington Aracena. Kind of a MLB for MLB “baseball” trade but it shook up the core. Got some pieces. Bet high on 2 higher ceiling guys while still getting you a potential BP arm and a high upside, further away lotto ticket while also extending your catching situation another year with Rutschman being controlled for a year longer than Jeffers I believe to give you a better bridge to Tait and some of these future catchers. Also, brings in Bradfield to allow Buxton to transition to a corner while also being an elite defender 4th OFer. Checks a lot of different boxes, shakes up the core, brings in some talent while still keeping MLB talent. Not sure if that works now still a few months later but I thought it was a good idea at the time.

[Drtwins]

I’d be interested in Mountcastle if it cost next to nothing. As noted he’s considered a negative trade asset at his projected cost. His bat has been trending downward the last 2 seasons and he’s only been an above average fielder one season his entire career. I’d much rather go after O’hearn. With that said Mountcastle would likely be an upgrade to the twins current options, so not opposed for the right cost. 

[jorgenswest]

I would only trade assets for multiple years of control. Mayo is the only option here.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

With that said Mountcastle would likely be an upgrade to the twins current options, so not opposed for the right cost. 

He's roughly 3 WAR better than Eddie Julien.

[chpettit19]

Mountcastle would be such a disappointing move, but I think it's probably a realistic one. I don't think Mayo is realistic. Mayo would cost current pitching talent, and if the Twins are moving that they need to go full rebuild and they don't appear to have any real plans to do that. Mountcastle would be yet another uninspiring, 1 year addition that doesn't move the needle in a meaningful way.

Unfortunately, I think Mountcastle is a real possibility if they can't get Hoskins, Goldschmidt, or whatever other uninspiring FA 1B. It's what they do. Run back nearly the exact same disappointing roster from the previous year, tell us they believe in the talent of the core, and add 1 year, bargain bin guys. Rince and repeat.

[Drtwins]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's roughly 3 WAR better than Eddie Julien.

Kewl, didn’t realize twins were considered Julien to start at 1st. I had read Clemens was the anticipated starter, who did have a higher war in 2025. Again, I think Mountcastle will likely be an upgrade.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

Kewl, didn’t realize twins were considered Julien to start at 1st. I had read Clemens was the anticipated starter, who did have a higher war in 2025. Again, I think Mountcastle will likely be an upgrade.

It doesn't really matter if Julien is named the starter. If he's on the roster, he'll get 400 plate appearances. Replacing Julien and Outman with better players is low hanging fruit for improving their overall win total.

[Chembry]

40 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would only trade assets for multiple years of control. Mayo is the only option here.

Would you be interested in Mountcastle if the Twins could extend him at a rate $5-7M average AAV? I assume the extension would include opt outs at various phases.  I would be in on Mountcastle if we could avoid arbitration and renegotiate a 2-3 year contract with options.  I understand not everyone would like that, but it would stabilize 1B and he is only 28.  He still has good upside.

On the other hand, Mayo would would require Lopez or Ryan.   

[howeda7]

Mountcastle does nothing for me. I'd view Clemons as a wash with him. Mayo it would depend on the price. I would probably do SWR or Festa for him but not much more than that.

[jorgenswest]

48 minutes ago, Chembry said:

Would you be interested in Mountcastle if the Twins could extend him at a rate $5-7M average AAV? I assume the extension would include opt outs at various phases.  I would be in on Mountcastle if we could avoid arbitration and renegotiate a 2-3 year contract with options.  I understand not everyone would like that, but it would stabilize 1B and he is only 28.  He still has good upside.

On the other hand, Mayo would would require Lopez or Ryan.   

I don’t know about Mountcastle. Last year was really bad and the Orioles must not have felt he will return to his 2023 levels. It doesn’t appear to be bad luck. Even if he performs at his 2024 levels it will be below average for a 1B though above league an average for a hitter. Last year of the 40 first basemen with at least 300 PAs he ranked 39th. To get to the middle and 15th he would need a wRC+ of 123. The only year he reached that level was 2020 and his rookie season. His next best was 113.

I would trade prospects for Mayo. I don’t have access to BTV but I wonder how Emmanuel Rodriguez would compare. I think he might even be higher given his positional value.

 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, High heat said:

Have you seen Mountcastle play?  He is significantly better than France! 
 

If you could get Mountcastle for reasonable trade I would t mind him.

 

Mayo is going to cost much more in prospect/talent.  I would ask if Mayo for SWR package is something Orioles would be interested in.

Mountcastle could neither hit nor field last year. France could field 

SWR might be an overpay for Mayo.  SWR would be about their third best SP whereas Mayo is extra in AAA. With the dearth of. SP, SWR is worth mmore than a AAA player

[tony&rodney]

If forced to pick between them, I would refuse. JK. 

Mountcastle has talent, experience, and is what the Twins do most of the time. I'm taking Nancy Reagan's advice and just saying no.

Coby Mayo is without a defensive home, has big power, and wants a couple of thousand plate appearances. The upside is there and Mayo is a gamble.

Trade Bailey Ober and Justin Topa for Coby Mayo. Baltimore would be open to that idea. Maybe the Twins add Tanner Schobel.

Once Mayo is onboard, trade him and Cody Lewis for Jared Jones. Add Trevor Larnach or a lower level guy from the DSL.

I like Bailey Ober a bunch, but if the Twins can turn him into a healthy effective Jared Jones ..... that's good.

Hey, BBTV likes the moves except for it looks like I made the Twins pay too much twice. I'll take it anyhow.

Edit to add - pay no attention to BBTV concerning either Lopez or Buxton. Plenty of teams would love to have those two players.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

Would you be interested in Mountcastle if the Twins could extend him at a rate $5-7M average AAV? I assume the extension would include opt outs at various phases.  I would be in on Mountcastle if we could avoid arbitration and renegotiate a 2-3 year contract with options.  I understand not everyone would like that, but it would stabilize 1B and he is only 28.  He still has good upside.

On the other hand, Mayo would would require Lopez or Ryan.   

Mouncastle’s arb estimate is 7.8m.  5–7m accepted? Off his last year’s production maybe.    Opt outs do not benefit a team unless they are hoping for a 1 year deal.  If the player gets worse,  the team suffers, if they get better, they are gone

[Chembry]

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t know about Mountcastle. Last year was really bad and the Orioles must not have felt he will return to his 2023 levels. It doesn’t appear to be bad luck. Even if he performs at his 2024 levels it will be below average for a 1B though above league an average for a hitter. Last year of the 40 first basemen with at least 300 PAs he ranked 39th. To get to the middle and 15th he would need a wRC+ of 123. The only year he reached that level was 2020 and his rookie season. His next best was 113.

I would trade prospects for Mayo. I don’t have access to BTV but I wonder how Emmanuel Rodriguez would compare. I think he might even be higher given his positional value.

 

I understand your viewpoint.  I guess the way I look at is, Mountcastle has been at 2-3 WAR production between 2022-2024 and had OPS+ of 108-117, which is above average.  He would be a steady presence, but definitely had a down 2025.  He is only 28 so he could easily bounce back.      

If you look strictly at BBTV, EmRod has a surplus of 27.5 and Mayo has surplus value of 18.  Baltimore wants pitching though.  Mayo lost some value this year...but I don't think Baltimore parts with Mayo unless we part with Lopez or Ryan.  I don't think they even look at Ober/SWR/Festa/Matthews.  Mayo has struggled in his short time and would be a gamble, but he has big time power. 

 

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

Mouncastle’s arb estimate is 7.8m.  5–7m accepted? Off his last year’s production maybe.    Opt outs do not benefit a team unless they are hoping for a 1 year deal.  If the player gets worse,  the team suffers, if they get better, they are gone

Yes, MLBTR arb estimate is $7.8M...I am thinking off a down year he may accept guaranteed offer.  There are many ways to structure a contract to make up any sort of difference, incentives or signing bonuses for example.  If he gambles and on his FA value and has another down year, he may not even be looking at $5-7M guaranteed?  Just a thought.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

Would you be interested in Mountcastle if the Twins could extend him at a rate $5-7M average AAV? I assume the extension would include opt outs at various phases.  I would be in on Mountcastle if we could avoid arbitration and renegotiate a 2-3 year contract with options.  I understand not everyone would like that, but it would stabilize 1B and he is only 28.  He still has good upside.

On the other hand, Mayo would would require Lopez or Ryan.   

Good lord, Lopez or Ryan for Mayo sure sounds like a huge overpay to me? All-star pitcher for a maybe slugger at 1B? He's closer to Alan Roden than Emmanuel Rodriguez, other than the mythical "pedigree" of high draft status and prospect ranking. I think the O's would fall all over themselves to send Mayo out if it brought back a starter of Lopez or Ryan's caliber.

I'm unenthusiastic about Mountcastle, but he does look like a decent candidate for a bounce back season, considering he was injured and missed 2 months in 2025 and has been pretty consistent as a hitter in 4 previous seasons.

It's worth having a conversation with the O's about a 1B. If Lopez gets sent out for Mayo (even with another prospect or 2) though, it tells me that the Cheap Pohlads are at it again.

[tony&rodney]

Lopez or Ryan for Mayo? Did someone mean Holliday or Henderson? 

Mayo may be rated higher than a Alan Roden but he will not be rated as high as Emmanuel Rodriguez. Baltimore wants pitching and Bailey Ober must have about the same or slightly more value than Mayo. Mountcastle? I'm guessing Julien or Larnach are similar in value.

[jmlease1]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Lopez or Ryan for Mayo? Did someone mean Holliday or Henderson? 

Mayo may be rated higher than a Alan Roden but he will not be rated as high as Emmanuel Rodriguez. Baltimore wants pitching and Bailey Ober must have about the same or slightly more value than Mayo. Mountcastle? I'm guessing Julien or Larnach are similar in value.

Gotta say, even if we had to flip in a rookie ball prospect, I'd send Larnach out for Mountcastle. Gets us RH help at 1B, even if we would need a bounce back season to have him really show value, while also opening up the logjam of LH COF/DH types to allow guys like Roden/Rodriguez/Jenkins real chances for playing time, and saving the $ on Larnach's salary still keeps us within a Cheap Pohlad budget and would leave resources to add bullpen help.

While I don't love Mountcastle and would be concerned that he's backup material heading towards replacement level...I was also ready to cut Larnach rather than pay him for the roster spot. But historically, Mountcastle has hit LHP quite well.

Exploring possibilities with the O's is a fair idea. We may even have things they want. It'd be great if they'd want a Larnach?

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Gotta say, even if we had to flip in a rookie ball prospect, I'd send Larnach out for Mountcastle. Gets us RH help at 1B, even if we would need a bounce back season to have him really show value, while also opening up the logjam of LH COF/DH types to allow guys like Roden/Rodriguez/Jenkins real chances for playing time, and saving the $ on Larnach's salary still keeps us within a Cheap Pohlad budget and would leave resources to add bullpen help.

While I don't love Mountcastle and would be concerned that he's backup material heading towards replacement level...I was also ready to cut Larnach rather than pay him for the roster spot. But historically, Mountcastle has hit LHP quite well.

Exploring possibilities with the O's is a fair idea. We may even have things they want. It'd be great if they'd want a Larnach?

Not sure where they'd want to put Larnach. Wouldn't think he's pushing Ward, Cowser, or Beavers out of the outfield or pushing Alonso, Rutschman or Basallo out of the DH rotation.

Weirder things have happened, but I can't imagine Larnach is high on their list of desires from the Twins. I'd think it's pitching, pitching, and more pitching that they'd ask for.

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Good lord, Lopez or Ryan for Mayo sure sounds like a huge overpay to me? All-star pitcher for a maybe slugger at 1B? He's closer to Alan Roden than Emmanuel Rodriguez, other than the mythical "pedigree" of high draft status and prospect ranking. I think the O's would fall all over themselves to send Mayo out if it brought back a starter of Lopez or Ryan's caliber.

I'm unenthusiastic about Mountcastle, but he does look like a decent candidate for a bounce back season, considering he was injured and missed 2 months in 2025 and has been pretty consistent as a hitter in 4 previous seasons.

It's worth having a conversation with the O's about a 1B. If Lopez gets sent out for Mayo (even with another prospect or 2) though, it tells me that the Cheap Pohlads are at it again.

MLBTR was discussing fits for Ryan earlier in the year and Mayo or Westburg was talked about as the headliner.  I'm not coming out of nowhere with that assumption...of course that could always change 

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, Chembry said:

MLBTR was discussing fits for Ryan earlier in the year and Mayo or Westburg was talked about as the headliner.  I'm not coming out of nowhere with that assumption...of course that could always change 

Oh, I'm sure someone was floating it and there are even credible people around MLB tossing it around. It just feels like a deal where you'd better be damn sure Mayo is going to break out in 2026 or you're in real trouble. And I'm not talking "Mayo as an all-star", I'm talking Mayo as a 2-3 bWAR player. And I'd be very concerned that Mayo's value is inflated because of the draft position and previous prospect ratings more than his actual ability and projections at this point. Players should stop getting scholarship bonuses in "value" for their prospect rankings once they've lost their rookie of the year eligibility, IMHO. But it consistently feels like they still get that "extra" in these kinds of deals, whether they deserve it or not.

Especially for Ryan. If it was Pablo, then at least you'd be gaining significant salary relief (which I hate is a consideration, but we have Cheap Pohlads as owners), but Ryan is not expensive. Mayo has been ok for a guy getting his first significant playing time in MLB. But he's proven nothing.

[Chembry]

6 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Oh, I'm sure someone was floating it and there are even credible people around MLB tossing it around. It just feels like a deal where you'd better be damn sure Mayo is going to break out in 2026 or you're in real trouble. And I'm not talking "Mayo as an all-star", I'm talking Mayo as a 2-3 bWAR player. And I'd be very concerned that Mayo's value is inflated because of the draft position and previous prospect ratings more than his actual ability and projections at this point. Players should stop getting scholarship bonuses in "value" for their prospect rankings once they've lost their rookie of the year eligibility, IMHO. But it consistently feels like they still get that "extra" in these kinds of deals, whether they deserve it or not.

Especially for Ryan. If it was Pablo, then at least you'd be gaining significant salary relief (which I hate is a consideration, but we have Cheap Pohlads as owners), but Ryan is not expensive. Mayo has been ok for a guy getting his first significant playing time in MLB. But he's proven nothing.

100% agree with that.  

Someone asked on today on the MLBTR chat what it would take to get Mountcastle from the O's and Anthony Franco said a 35 grade prospect...so we are talking none of our top 30...Seems like a decent value to me.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Weirder things have happened, but I can't imagine Larnach is high on their list of desires from the Twins. I'd think it's pitching, pitching, and more pitching that they'd ask for.

They're much more likely to want someone in A-ball than Larnach in return for Mountcastle. Maybe Bohorquez or Olivares.

[jmlease1]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure where they'd want to put Larnach. Wouldn't think he's pushing Ward, Cowser, or Beavers out of the outfield or pushing Alonso, Rutschman or Basallo out of the DH rotation.

Weirder things have happened, but I can't imagine Larnach is high on their list of desires from the Twins. I'd think it's pitching, pitching, and more pitching that they'd ask for.

I'm sure that's true, but a boy can dream, right? (The O's can actually use a competent LH hitter I think; YMMV on whether or not Larnach really is one)

But if the O's want pitching, I would make them really pay for it. No "oh, what a lovely deal for Baltimore" crap that the east coast bobos that wish they didn't have to get on a plane to cover baseball or stay up for a west coast game would like, no "the midwest teams are supposed to be the farm system for the AL East" Bee Ess. :P