A Rare Commodity: Why Byron Buxton’s Trade Value Might Never Be Higher

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Byron Buxton has never been shy about his feelings toward Minnesota. Across multiple interviews last season, he made it clear that he wants to remain a Twin for life. His connection to the organization, the fan base, and the community is something he has spoken about with pride and sincerity. Under normal circumstances, that would make the idea of trading him seem almost unthinkable.

This offseason has created a different kind of challenge. Reports have surfaced suggesting that Buxton may be open to waiving his no-trade clause if the Twins continue to move veteran players such as Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, or Ryan Jeffers. That possibility introduces a significant layer of complication. Even if the Twins found a strong market for Buxton, no deal could happen without his approval. Any conversation about trading him must account for whether he views the franchise as moving toward contention or slipping away from it.

At the same time, the broader league context has changed in a way no one predicted. According to MLB.com, right-handed hitting outfielders have become the hardest type of player to find this winter. That reality could elevate Buxton’s value to its highest point in years.

Look across free agency, and the scarcity becomes obvious. Rob Refsnyder, Miguel Andujar, and Harrison Bader headline the group. Each offers something useful. Refsnyder and Andujar can handle left-handed pitching. Bader’s defense remains elite (as Twins fans saw last season). But none of them are stars, and none profile as everyday impact players for contending teams. They are better suited for supporting roles.

Beyond them is a class of respected veterans who have passed their prime. Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, and Chris Taylor have accomplished plenty in their careers, but they no longer have the upside or durability teams are seeking for a full season. They can help someone win, but they are not centerpieces.

Scarcity has already pushed teams to surprising decisions. MLB.com highlighted the deal in which Baltimore traded four years of control over 24-year-old starter Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for just one year of 31-year-old outfielder Taylor Ward. It shocked the industry, but it also revealed how aggressively clubs may act to secure a reliable right-handed outfield bat.

If that is the current price, Buxton becomes one of the most intriguing trade pieces (semi-)available. Even with the injuries, his ceiling remains extraordinary. When he is right, he alters games with power, speed, and strong defense. Last season was the most complete campaign of Buxton’s career, as he set career highs in home runs (35), RBIs (83), runs (97), walks (41), plate appearances (542), and at-bats (488) while topping 120 games played for the second time in 11 seasons. He posted a .264/.327/.551 line with a 136 OPS+ on his way to winning his first Silver Slugger.

No free-agent right-handed outfielder offers anything close to that combination. In a market starving for this player type, someone may be willing to take a big swing. Buxton has three years remaining on his deal at only $15 million per season, a very team-friendly contract for whatever team he suits up for in 2026.

For the Twins, the decision is delicate. Buxton’s desire to stay carries real weight, but so does the possibility that the roster could continue to change around him. If the team moves more veterans, he might view a fresh start as a better path. If they hold firm, he may want to remain the face of the franchise. Minnesota will need to balance his preferences, his health, the market forces working in their favor, and the long-term shape of the roster.

Trading a player like Buxton requires conviction and timing. This winter presents a rare confluence of events. Right-handed-hitting outfielders are scarce; Buxton’s value may be peaking; and the Twins are navigating a crossroads. Whether they act on that opportunity or choose continuity will define much of their offseason, and possibly much more of their future.

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Should Buxton be the first veteran traded by the Twins this winter? Can they take advantage of the right-handed-hitting outfielder shortage? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[tony&rodney]

Cody, you must have missed the news. The Twins have new investors and are now rich. The club is all in, Falvey likes the roster.

In a way, in an attempt to wish good things for the player, I wish Byron Buxton could play in the World Series. He has had a lifetime of injuries followed by rehab and it would be a treat to see him play well in the post season for the Dodgers.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

No.

[Cory Engelhardt]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Cody, you must have missed the news. The Twins have new investors and are now rich. The club is all in, Falvey likes the roster.

In a way, in an attempt to wish good things for the player, I wish Byron Buxton could play in the World Series. He has had a lifetime of injuries followed by rehab and it would be a treat to see him play well in the post season for the Dodgers.

 

Only because I read this from Aaron Gleeman last night. The Twins have picked 3rd in the draft two other times prior to the pick they earned for 2026. They took Willie Banks in 1987, and David McCarty in 1991. All of that means the player they will take in 2026 will probably not work out, but it DOES mean they win the world series in 2026, right? :)

[Road trip]

Well, yeah, even without the dearth of free agent outfielders, Buxton's trade value will likely never be higher.  He'll be 32, and finally stayed healthy for a full year last year.  A large part of his value is his elite speed, but this can only decline with increased age.  It is almost inevitable that Buxton would bring back a little less in 2027, less still in 2028, etc.  He is a depreciating asset.

It doesn't mean the Twins *should* trade him.  From a marketing perspective Buxton is one of the very few reasons a casual fan might buy a ticket to a Twins game.  By opening day he may be their only veteran bat, depending on how you define that.  Maybe none of that matters though... it's gonna be a rebuilding year(s).

[Gamblerssoftball]

He will not be traded.....unless Lopez and or Ryan go first. And then, for who. That goes totally against what has been said out loud at the winter meetings.

[CRF]

I'm sure I'll be in the minority and get plenty of thumbs down, but I'd like to see him get moved to another team. Get his approval and get as much as you can for him.

[IndianaTwin]

48 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Only because I read this from Aaron Gleeman last night. The Twins have picked 3rd in the draft two other times prior to the pick they earned for 2026. They took Willie Banks in 1987, and David McCarty in 1991. All of that means the player they will take in 2026 will probably not work out, but it DOES mean they win the world series in 2026, right? :)

I'd be fine with redrafting David McCarty himself if it guarantees a World Series title in 2026. (Though I'd rather not redraft him in hopes that it wins a title.) 

[mickster]

36 minutes ago, CRF said:

I'm sure I'll be in the minority and get plenty of thumbs down, but I'd like to see him get moved to another team. Get his approval and get as much as you can for him.

I still hold out that hope that we keep all of our "high valued players" and add around them.   Rebuilding the bullpen can be done as relievers are fickle.   TD wanted to throw away Thielbar and Pagan, and both would look good now.   The Central is still winnable.    The trades that need to be made are possibly Ober, and then parting with Erod to supplement the roster.   1B is hole thought

[bunsen82]

Are these the same reports announcing Verde as the new limited partners?  

[SteveLV]

Send him to the Dodgers.  They are loaded as heck, he would have an excellent chance to win a few World Series, an excellent capstone to his career.

Dodgers have tons of OF prospects to load up on.

It would be waiving the white flag for 2026, but so be it.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Cody, you must have missed the news. The Twins have new investors and are now rich. The club is all in, Falvey likes the roster.

They do have 4 good players on the roster. They only need to add about 12 more in free agency and they'll be ready for the World Series. That $20M budget they have for free agency should get them up to 5 good players on the roster.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, mickster said:

The Central is still winnable. 

This is true. If the Tigers trade Skubal, I expect 84 wins would be enough to win the Central.

[Parfigliano]

18 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Send him to the Dodgers.  They are loaded as heck, he would have an excellent chance to win a few World Series, an excellent capstone to his career.

Dodgers have tons of OF prospects to load up on.

It would be waiving the white flag for 2026, but so be it.

Send Byron to where ever the best offer comes from.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

How does a team build a winning tradition by constantly trading away its best players when their trade value is highest (i.e. when they are playing their best and are affordable). Makes no sense to me. A team should want to keep players who are playing their best and are affordable. That is the way to consistent winning. Year after year, it should not be "wait til next year"!  The future is now !

[nova_twins]

There is no rational reason to trade Buxton, it's such a bad idea I don't even worry about it happening. 

[jorgenswest]

The 162 matter to me this year much more than the tiny chance trades could turn the roster into a World Series winner down the road. It wasn’t trades that turned the Astros into a World Series winner. It was high draft choices after several awful years. The Orioles went the awful year path and had the several top draft choices. No rings yet and that path has been shut down with the draft lottery. When was the last time a team tore it down completely and then rebounded to win the World Series via players they acquired in trade? It certainly wasn’t the Astros. They needed those top draft picks.

The Twins need right handed outfielders. They plan to play aggressively and need speed. The inexperienced pitchers need defense behind him. Why not keep a player at his peak value and enjoy more of the 162?

[tony&rodney]

Please explain why anyone would worry about Buxton being traded. He hasn't demanded a trade and Falvey is extremely risk adverse. My guess is that the odds are about the same as the Mets winning Draft Pick #1.

I commented above that it would be good for Byron to have the joy of playing in a World Series and excelling on the national stage, but I have never believed there was any chance whatsoever of him being traded. If he absolutely comes out and demands a trade, that would change the calculus. Does that seem like something Buck would do? I doubt it.

Team USA will have to be Buxton's playoff run.

[old nurse]

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

The 162 matter to me this year much more than the tiny chance trades could turn the roster into a World Series winner down the road. It wasn’t trades that turned the Astros into a World Series winner. It was high draft choices after several awful years. The Orioles went the awful year path and had the several top draft choices. No rings yet and that path has been shut down with the draft lottery. When was the last time a team tore it down completely and then rebounded to win the World Series via players they acquired in trade? It certainly wasn’t the Astros. They needed those top draft picks.

The Twins need right handed outfielders. They plan to play aggressively and need speed. The inexperienced pitchers need defense behind him. Why not keep a player at his peak value and enjoy more of the 162?

Only one team in the bottom half of revenue has won the WS in the past 20 years.  That would be KC in 2025.  Their best player as well as their starting SS were acquired by trading Greinke.

If we want to look at a larger sample, we can look at a more realistic measure like making the playoffs.  If that's the measure, you will find that trading for prospects has produced almost as much as drafting.  Cleveland and Tampa would have 1/3 of the number of playoff appearances without having traded for prospects.  Last year's Milwaukee team also had several prospects acquired in trade.

I do agree the chances of a trade meaning a WS win are very small but the chances trades contribute to getting in the playoffs with a team that has a real shot are very significant.

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Would you just stop ....

.... beating that horse. It's not nice.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Only one team in the bottom half of revenue has won the WS in the past 20 years.  That would be KC in 2025.  Their best player as well as their starting SS were acquired by trading Greinke.

If we want to look at a larger sample, we can look at a more realistic measure like making the playoffs.  If that's the measure, you will find that trading for prospects has produced almost as much as drafting.  Cleveland and Tampa would have 1/3 of the number of playoff appearances without having traded for prospects.  Last year's Milwaukee team also had several prospects acquired in trade.

I do agree the chances of a trade meaning a WS win are very small but the chances trades contribute to getting in the playoffs with a team that has a real shot are very significant.

Good find. Escobar was the #12 prospect in 2010. They also received Odorizzi who was #69. Jeffers also made top 100 lists. Cain is not listed as ever making a top 100 list but he had a solid few months with an OPS of .763 before returning to the minors with the Royals the next year and showing some power he hadn’t previously shown.

I just don’t think those kinds of trade happen in this decade. Not only did the Royals get an elite prospect but they received two other top 100 players and Cain who significantly outperformed his prospect status. If the Twins can get that elite level prospect plus another I am in. 

The Twins don’t need to trade right now to get a guy like Cain as a Brewer. They need to identify someone who is going to be a lot better than his prospect ranking as they did Joe Ryan and like the Royals did with Cain.

I am not saying never trade Buxton or Ryan. I just need the return to be someone in that #12 range plus more. I said the same thing about Duran. I don’t want them to settle for a couple of FV50 or FV 45 players. They can’t wait to make that deal.

 

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I just don’t think those kinds of trade happen in this decade. Not only did the Royals get an elite prospect but they received two other top 100 players and Cain who significantly outperformed his prospect status. If the Twins can get that elite level prospect plus another I am in. 

You might be right in terms of superstars but let's be realistic.  How many players have the twins had in the past decade that put up 6 WAR like Cain did in 2015.  If we take a more encompassing look at roster building, the modest revenue, trading for prospects is extremely important.  Take the 2025 Brewers for example.  If we look at the top 50% of the 2025 Brewers roster (top 13) by WAR, 3 were drafted, 1 (Yehlich) was acquired as a proven player, 2 were international draftees, and 7 were players acquired as prospects.  

Look at the 99 win 2023 Rays.  two-thirds or their WAR was from prospects acquired in trade.

The 2016 Guardians team that went to the WS produced 44% of their WAR from players acquired as prospects.  This percentage from prospects acquired in trade is about average for the Guardians over the past 20 years.  Same is true for the Rays.  We hold them up as an example but don't want to follow their lead.

[S Bart]

6 hours ago, CRF said:

I'm sure I'll be in the minority and get plenty of thumbs down, but I'd like to see him get moved to another team. Get his approval and get as much as you can for him.

You are not alone. He has fan appeal but it is highly unlikely that he will be free from repeated injuries in 2026 and 2027 looks to be a lock out scenario. I hope not, but my gut says that 2025 was an anomaly for the Buck Truck. 

[tim5189]

On 12/10/2025 at 8:34 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

 but it DOES mean they win the world series in 2026, right? :)

You are a dreamer, as am I! I would LOVE to see them in the WS within the next few years

[jkcarew]

I don’t think there’s any “might be” about it. It’s highly, highly unlikely his trade value goes anywhere but down from here. And for multiple reasons.

It MIGHT go down relatively slowly…we can hope for that…but it’s going down.

[tony&rodney]

On 12/10/2025 at 1:24 PM, jorgenswest said:

Good find. Escobar was the #12 prospect in 2010. They also received Odorizzi who was #69. Jeffers also made top 100 lists. Cain is not listed as ever making a top 100 list but he had a solid few months with an OPS of .763 before returning to the minors with the Royals the next year and showing some power he hadn’t previously shown.

I just don’t think those kinds of trade happen in this decade. Not only did the Royals get an elite prospect but they received two other top 100 players and Cain who significantly outperformed his prospect status. If the Twins can get that elite level prospect plus another I am in. 

The Twins don’t need to trade right now to get a guy like Cain as a Brewer. They need to identify someone who is going to be a lot better than his prospect ranking as they did Joe Ryan and like the Royals did with Cain.

I am not saying never trade Buxton or Ryan. I just need the return to be someone in that #12 range plus more. I said the same thing about Duran. I don’t want them to settle for a couple of FV50 or FV 45 players. They can’t wait to make that deal.

 

There are likely quite a few teams willing to pay (in prospects) big for Buxton. I'm not sure where the fit in a return is though from other teams to benefit the Twins.  Byron would leave a big hole. 

One wonders what type of return Joe Ryan could deliver, especially if the Twins enticed a team with a couple of good prospects. Would Ryan, Kendry Rojas, and Kyle DeBarge for Leodalis De Vries be good for both teams? That is a big price to pay for a young player.

I was disappointed by the return for Jhoan Duran and yes i know he is just a relief pitcher and only has two years left before free agency.