Minnesota Twins 2026 Opening Day Roster Projection, v. 1.0

[arby58]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

If Festa, Matthews and Abel have better arms than three currently in the bullpen they should be in the bullpen. They can get AAA hitters out. They need work getting major league hitters out.

While I get your point, if the last two years have proven anything, it is that you need starting pitching depth at AAA. Given Festa's health issues, he might be the one I agree with you about moving to the bullpen, but having stretched out Matthews and Abel in St. Paul is at last some insurance when the inevitable starting pitching injuries manifest themselves.

[arby58]

12 hours ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

If it was up to me, I would put Zebby in the rotation in place of S-W-R. I know that S-W-R flashed a bit of upside in the second half of last season, but he has now thrown over 250 innings with the Twins, and has yet to show any real consistency. The Twins aren't likely to compete with this roster, and I think that Zebby is more likely to slot into their future plans than S-W-R is.  I would also put Festa in the bullpen in place of Prielipp. Ideally, I would want to give Prielipp a little bit more time to try to prove himself in the AAA rotation, and Festa seems destined toward the bullpen anyway. 

I know SWR isn't as flashy and doesn;t throw as hard as Zebby - all he does is put up solid numbers. Last year, SWR was 7-4, 4.04 ERA, 107 Ks in 111.1 innings, a WHIP of 1.275 and WAR of 2.0.

Last year, Zebby was 5-6, 5.56 ERA, 88 Ks in 79.1 innings, a WHIP of 1.487 and WAR of 0.2.

For his career in those 254.2 innings, SWR is 12-10, 4.21 ERA and a WAR of 4.0. In the aggregate, that doesn't look too bad to me.

 

[Mike Sixel]

NO chance, IMO, that Priellip is in the bullpen to start the year. Whether he should be or not is another question.

people keep questioning SWR, without looking at how he is compared to other ML pitchers. He's average or better at this point, short starts be damned. 

Outman and Julien on the roster make me sad, truly. That doesn't get to first base *ugh*. 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

NO chance, IMO, that Priellip is in the bullpen to start the year. Whether he should be or not is another question.

Do you think Falvey is going to lose that argument?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Do you think Falvey is going to lose that argument?

Not sure I understand the question? Did someone say he was going there? I mean, I don't really pay attn to most of what is said....

[StiltedGopher]

Pray for health for the starting pitching as that group looks okay.  
Excited to see Keaschall get extended time. 
Hope Royce gets back on track.  
Buxton is a true professional.  
A couple of the bullpen should pan out.  
 

But really, a bunch of sadness.  

Unless they over perform quickly, that roster is not going to sell many tickets or streaming TV packages.   

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

So we traded in July one of the best relievers in the ML's, Duran, for ML ready Abel and Abel will be in AAA. Makes sense.

You are either criticizing the blogger or believe clickbait. I am not sure which 

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not sure I understand the question? Did someone say he was going there? I mean, I don't really pay attn to most of what is said....

Quote

“I am excited about some of the arms we have at Triple A and Double A over the last couple of years that while they haven’t always hit their stride as starters, they might have an ability to impact us in different ways,” Falvey said last week. “I’d hate to put too much pressure on any of them, but you see Connor Prielipp throw the way he can at times, you see Marco Raya throw the way he has. … I’m excited about that group in aggregate and we’re going to figure out how to make it all work together.”

Falvey wants Prielipp in the bullpen. Do you think he's going to lose that argument?

[jorgenswest]

59 minutes ago, arby58 said:

While I get your point, if the last two years have proven anything, it is that you need starting pitching depth at AAA. Given Festa's health issues, he might be the one I agree with you about moving to the bullpen, but having stretched out Matthews and Abel in St. Paul is at last some insurance when the inevitable starting pitching injuries manifest themselves.

If they need a starter it won’t take that long to be stretched out. They can piggy back some paired combo of Abel, Matthews, Prielipp or Festa a few times in the rotation and go with the more successful one by turn after two weeks. If they are among the best 12 I prefer not to waste their pitches in AAA waiting for someone to get hurt. That is no guarantee to work out anyway if the needed date doesn’t sync up with their rotation schedule in AAA.

Before someone comments about the 12 I do realize there are 13. Most teams use that spot to shuttle relievers when the bullpen is overworked. I wouldn’t put one of those four in the last spot in the bullpen that is infrequently used waiting for a blow out. They need to win a job in the top 12.

[old nurse]

A lot of angst over what is a work in progress. The assumption that the current 40 man is what will be is a stretch. The bargain bin really has not been made available for shopping. 

[jmlease1]

I was a big Julien backer, but he hasn't done enough to merit a spot on the roster; beyond that he's a poor fit to back up Clemens or any of the likely DH candidates (LH bats all). While he's on the 26-man by default based on his lack of options, this is where sunk cost fallacy comes into play.

It's frankly the biggest concern I have about Outman: rather than "lose the asset" they'll keep a player who isn't good enough to be on a MLB roster hanging around. I'm not even very enthusiastic about keep Larnach, and he's been far better than either Outman or Julien over the past 2 seasons at the plate.

I don't hate the lineup that much outside of these problems, but it's predicated on better health or performance from several guys: Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, and Lee, while having continued health/success from Buxton, Jeffers (who wasn't great last season), and Martin. And that can go wrong in a hurry.

The rotation looks great, right up until the Cheap Pohlads force us to trade Lopez or Ryan. But right now? That's a pretty dang good rotation, especially if Ober bounces back.

Bullpen still needs experience and Kline doesn't have it. I don't mind running with some of the younger guys and converting some starters, but they need to add a guy who has experience late in games. I question whether Preilipp will go bullpen from the jump, but I'm here for it.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Falvey wants Prielipp in the bullpen. Do you think he's going to lose that argument?

I literally said I didn't know he said that, why so belligerent? 

Nope, he'll win.

[Major League Ready]

I sure hope they make significantly more change.  We all know the definition of insanity.

[tony&rodney]

51 minutes ago, old nurse said:

A lot of angst over what is a work in progress. The assumption that the current 40 man is what will be is a stretch. The bargain bin really has not been made available for shopping. 

No angst here. I watched the work in progress the last several years. Not much changed during the offseason. I'm remaining hopeful for some major changes.

[DocBauer]

Cody, I think your pretty close if the season started TOMORROW. But doesn't it also depend on whether Falvey continues to hold on to his precious "depth" MO instead of playing the best, and younger, talent on hand?

Just my opinion:

OF: Martin, Buxton, Rodriguez, and Wallner as the primary DH and backup corner OF. Larnach is moved, and Outman has a small chance, but more on him later. And this changes June/July 1st-ish when Jenkins is ready. (Gonzalez probably later in the season).

INF: Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and Fitzgerlad as utility/SS depth. Why not open up 1B to Roden and Fedko to compete and share 1B and ALSO be 4th OF if they both look like they can stick? Clemens then backs up 4 or 5 spots as a utility player. Outman has a chance to begin the season...ugh...as a backup OF if either Roden or Fedko don't stick. And do we really need to see more of Julien and just keep him because he's put of options? And we add another quality piece of the puzzle around July 1st when K-Pepper is ready.

CATCHER: Jeffers and Jackson.

ROTATION: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and Bradley. But Bradley has a lot to prove to me still. And I believe he's got an option remaining. And there's depth and competition with Matthews, Abel, and Morris. 

BULLPEN: Funderburk, Prielipp, Festa, Sands, Orze, Topa, Klein, and Ohl/Adams in a shootout. If they're serious about Prielipp moving to the pen, then they have to be serious about placing Festa there as well based on success 2 times through the rotation and his shoulder issues this past season. Klein has solid stuff and good K potential. 

Just my opinion based on today's candidates and options.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Only one team since 2014, not counting the Covid Season, has failed to score that many runs.  That would be the legendary '24 White Sox,  Are you suggesting we are entering legend-making territory?

That bunch?  Yes.

[Major League Ready]

One could argue that the July 1 roster will be a better indicator of the club's future.  The assimilation of Jenkins and Culpepper is huge and a couple other guys like Able / Prielipp / Rodriguez / Gonzalez could also be key to ongoing success.

[Jacksson]

What's the over/under on the offense having 30 shutouts for 2026?

[Major League Ready]

51 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

What's the over/under on the offense having 30 shutouts for 2026?

That makes absolutely no sense.  Did you mean what is the over under on the number of times the Twins offense gets shutout?  The record is 13 times so 30 is pure hyperbole.  

[PatPfund]

So, just for the record, the OP does NOT have Outman on the roster; he is listed as the 6th of a 5 man OF. Also, being out of options doesn't "lock" you to the 26-man. You can be DFA'd, clear waivers, and accept re-assignment. Happens all the time (can't remember how many Dobnak got DFA'd, and the Twins had a middle reliever a few years ago they DFA'd like 4 times in-season before someone else finally claimed them). I get this is an if-the-season-started-today kind of thing, but Julien is going to have to hit his way on to the roster in ST, and I've given up hope of that happening. I still think Larnach is pushed permanently out of the OF, and he'd make a nice target at 1b, which opens up the DH spot for rotation, and an OF spot for Rodriguez. Julien and Outman get shots, don't hit, and get DFA'd to work it out in St Paul or for someone else.

[Doc Lenz]

Abel in …Ober and out.

[karcherd]

Outman is a near certain 26 man lock, Falvey is not going to let him go that quickly.  Falvey is convinced he can fix Outman and he will not let him go anytime before July or August if we are lucky. 

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

"Fitzgerald is penciled in as the backup shortstop and third baseman. Yet, the front office could elect to acquire a higher-upside option like Isiah Kiner-Falefa"

Quite possibly the most depressing statement ever written on Twins Daily.

Please No! Where do I stand to picket?

I will take Fitzgerald over a one year rental. Fitzgerald has years of control if he somehow... someway... makes himself worth more years. However... one of the most important things for the front office to do this off-season is remove Fitzgerald from any 26 man projections. 

Trade Ryan or Jeffers or James Outman if you can spare him and bring in a young close to major league ready SS... Please!

If you looking at free agents... look in the bullpen aisle stay clear of the sale priced one year position player freezer section. 

 

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Could well be; that often happens with players obtained on waivers in the first place.

I'm planning to second guess the timing of this strategy if we lose someone via Rule-5.

Meanwhile, "if the season began tomorrow...."

McCusker could easily be dropped to open up a pre rule-5 roster spot. 

[Riverbrian]

@arby58 makes some great points... the quick return from reliever to starter is something seldom done.

However... I agree with you completely. 

Just roster your best arms. Sort it out. Can you hang zeroes? How Many? The ones that hang more... those are your starters. 

[arby58]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

If they need a starter it won’t take that long to be stretched out. They can piggy back some paired combo of Abel, Matthews, Prielipp or Festa a few times in the rotation and go with the more successful one by turn after two weeks. If they are among the best 12 I prefer not to waste their pitches in AAA waiting for someone to get hurt. That is no guarantee to work out anyway if the needed date doesn’t sync up with their rotation schedule in AAA.

The 'it won't take that long to be stretched out' flies in the face of actual practice. Any examples you can cite that 'it won't take that long?' Piggybacks are also hard on a bullpen. There is a reason teams don't often adopt this 'strategy' when constructing a bullpen or a way to deal with a starting pitcher going down.

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Piggybacks are also hard on a bullpen. There is a reason teams don't often adopt this 'strategy' when constructing a bullpen or a way to deal with a starting pitcher going down.

This is what the team is doing with some of its pitchers in the mInors...

[Fatbat]

Thats a very young group of guys on the roster. Prepare for speed bumps! 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The 'it won't take that long to be stretched out' flies in the face of actual practice. Any examples you can cite that 'it won't take that long?' Piggybacks are also hard on a bullpen. There is a reason teams don't often adopt this 'strategy' when constructing a bullpen or a way to deal with a starting pitcher going down.

The Tigers were very successful with many bullpen days after the deadline in 2024. To start August they had Skubal and Montero from their starting rotation. Flaherty was traded. Maeda was in the pen. Mize and Olson were injured. That didn’t stop them from a great last two months of the season to make the playoffs. They lengthened the relief outings of Brieske and Holton. They followed with a second pitcher giving them 3 to 5 innings of length. It worked. The key here was they weren’t fixated on the role of a starter followed by a bunch of one inning relievers. Teams have taken notice. The number of bullpen games were on the rise in the 2024 and 2025 playoffs and teams were winning a majority of those games.

Can a team use a series of bullpen games to build up one of their relievers to the rotation? I don’t see why that can’t happen. It might not be the best path. It might be better to have some pitchers in your bullpen that have the pitch mix to see the batting order more than once and then utilizing them with two or three days rest in bullpen games.

In any case if Abel doesn’t win a job in the rotation I am not sending him to the minors if he is more ready to get major league hitters out than some guys in my pen. When a starter is needed I would begin with bullpen days in that slot and build him up. 

 

[LewFordLives]

Given who's on the roster at the moment, this all seems about right, for better or worse. A lot of guys who shouldn't be on a major league roster, but it is what it is. 

I might quibble about the bullpen. I think they find a spot for Adams. His overall results were bad, but there were moments where he flashed some good stuff and there is enough to build on.

The infield is downright depressing.