Why Minnesota Twins’ Outfield Depth Could Be a Valuable Offseason Asset

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Larnarch has just over 4 years of service time.  The Twins have two more seasons of control over him.

Trevor Larnach Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

True, but next year will be more expensive than this year. If teams aren't interested in paying him $4.7M this year, will they be excited to pay him $6.5M next year?

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I guess I see zero reason to trade either Roden or Martin.

They're not trading Martin and probably not Roden. Martin was the clear winner in the last two months of 2025 tryout camp. He is your starting LF on Opening Day, will hit leadoff, 2nd or 9th (classic places for a speedy, high OBP guy with no power), and play pretty much every day until he shows he's not good enough. Don't miss the key defensive stat in the post - he went from -6 OAA in the OF in 2024 to +5 in 2025. Staying out of CF helped that but he showed he can be a plus defender in a corner, maybe even elite. You want a speedier, better defensive OF in 2026? Martin needs to be in it.  

Roden will get his shot in 2026 but he isn't a guy that would bring back much in a trade. He's more valuable to us a possible 1B or RF. He did tear up AAA last year so he should get a shot and let's see what happens. Trading him for some mediocre vet reliever makes no sense to me. He's only tradable if we could get a younger quality prospect in return or if he gets packaged with someone like Larnach for a real player. That seems pretty unlikely.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner .829 career OPS

 

Larnach .726 career OPS

See that "WAR" column? Pretty huge difference there.

Wallner makes $760k with 4 more years of control, Larnach will make $5MM with 1 year of control. 

In addition, Wallner (despite the TD fan narrative which is pretty easy to debunk with data...) was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, and substantially superior to Larnach. Even with RISP you can see Wallner walked more and struck out less... because pitchers were desperate to pitch around him.

Wallner is also much faster than the below average Larnach (26-27 ft/sec). Wallner's sprint speed was borderline center fielder level (28 ft/sec in prior years), and Wallner is neutral on the basepaths where Larnach has always been a below average base runner.

Summary, Wallner is an elite max exit velo power fly ball hitter with 30HR+ annual potential, above average speed and a cannon arm under team control for 4 more years at league minimum.

Larnach is a medium max exit velo, line drive hitter with 20HR potential, below average speed and an average to below average arm with just next year remaining under team control at 7x the cost of Wallner.

I agree with all of this with one nit - Wallner is a lousy RF. I wish he could play 1B and hope they try him there or he's going to wind up as a primary DH, RF once or twice a week guy. Even then, we would be stupid to trade him unless we get a serious return and even then I would hesitate. 

Larnach is ok but he isn't as good as his contract. Hopefully we can get something in trade and don't just have to DFA him, even if it's just an A or AA guy with potential. I'd try to trade him with one of our A or AA guys with potential for a bad contract with upside guy like Tristan Casas or Ryan Mountcastle.  Otherwise, get a prospect and move on. We have to sign him first to get that done. 

[Cris E]

So much stuff in this thread, both right and wrong, it makes me crazy. Mostly the Twins outfield situation comes down to giving guys a fair chance to come up and play, to work through or around injuries and prove who they are at the high minor and MLB levels.  

Buxton is a superstar when healthy, and he's been missing less time over the past couple years. Keep him as long as he'll play here. The idea that he "deserves" a post-season is trash. So do I, so do we all, and we're not getting paid millions. Everyone is happy if they win, so keep him.

Wallner is a hitter, and the roster does not have many guys with his power (and just not McCasker's empty 40% K power) so you can't be tossing that aside. He can throw real good, but no one cares if he's always starting with his back to the infield chasing a bouncing ball, so put him at 1B or DH and let him hit.  

Larnach has had that chance, and he has staked his claim to being a solid platoon lefty corner OF. That's it, not terrible with the glove, no untapped power potential, just an average LF. That's valuable, but not to the Twins at $4-5m. He might be able to be traded for something, but only an equivalent, fungible back of bullpen arm in the 4.90 ERA range, and not cheap. Do you want someone else's Michael Tonkin or Justin Topa? Because we had some and cut them last week. 

Martin is at this point an outfielder. In 2025 he was up for two months and only saw 2B four times, and that included months after the starting SS was traded and Royce Lewis only playing about 100 games at 3B. In the minors he only played 2B six times vs 25 games in the OF and 4 at DH, and he was last seen at SS in 2022 in AA and never anywhere else. And now Keashall has ended that 2B experiment. But he did hit better this year, and improved his LF defense as well. So is he a future piece in the team's plans? An OBP-driven 106 OPS+ from LF that only stole at a 66% clip with average defense is not a great asset (unless you have a hole there.) Most teams can and should do better, so he stays on as a placeholder until a youngster steals his job (just as Luke took his 2B spot.)

I thought Rodan looked OK until he tore up his hand. He's had a good minor league track record, so I would expect him to start the year in LF.  Outman had a lot of looks and only had one good year in LA. He can reclaim a shot in Mpls with a few good months in St Paul to wash away his 2025. Then you get into the  new kids, and honestly none of them has enough outstanding history to demand a spot at the next level yet so we wait until mid-year.  

In short, move Larnach, play Buxton, Wallner, Roden, some Martin as the fourth and Outman when he demands a shot, and then wait until the kids evolve. They aren't going to spend with Jenkins and the others this close to being ripe. 

EDIT:  I crossed myself up a bit, but I believe Martin is the incumbent for 2026 but I expect Roden to take the starting job from him in spring. 

[rdehring]

Don't understand why so many of you see little to no value in Roden? 

Granted, he is a Wisconsin kid from Middleton where I once lived.  So, I have a bias.  I admit it.  But just look at what he did in the minors the past couple years.  Had he been in the Twins organization, many of you would be screaming that he be brought up and played, immediately.  

As for his brief experience for the Jays and Twins.  It was what, 100 at bats?  And in the middle of that the kid gets traded.  I don't see how that brief experience should tarnish what he accomplished prior to breaking in with the Jays.

I understand that he was traded for a local kid we all loved.  I get that.  But that is water over the dam.  It is time to move on and give this kid a chance.  The same chance Jenkins, EmRod and Gonzalez will soon be getting.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

More like 20% of Louie Varland. That trade was all about Rojas.

If true, then I like the trade even less - why exchange Varland, who's already young and under team control through 2029/2030, for a single pitching prospect and what is essentially a throw-in? I like Rojas as a pitching prospect, but we know with the rate pitching prospects hit that's really risky moving Varland for one legit prospect.

I guess if they really didn't believe in Varland going forward and think that he's not going to last as a high leverage / 7th/8th inning reliever then that's more logical. They had better be right about Rojas.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins OF need to go through a revision, A revision from raw power potential, SO prone, non-clutch, slow, poor glove & baserunner OFers to a good glove, rangy, good OBP, clutch hitter & wreak havoc on the basepath. So Buxton is a no-brainer, plus we'll never have enough for him in trade. Jenkins's upside is great. Emma checks all the boxes. These 3 are locks because they check the boxes & can hit for power. Martin checks the boxes & won't get enough in trade.  All the rest we can trade. On top of the list is Larnach (for a RP or as an add-on), Wallner & Gonzalez (who are completely different hitters), we can get a lot in trade & they don't check the boxes. Rodon & Outman don't get on base enough. Keaschall could also play OF, so IMO, we could do a sell-off of these OFers like we did with the BP with a lot less impact, for players we need. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

Outman when he demands a shot, and then wait until the kids evolve.

I think the kids are likely already better than Outman and I'd rather give them the innings.

[Riverbrian]

31 minutes ago, Danchat said:

If true, then I like the trade even less - why exchange Varland, who's already young and under team control through 2029/2030, for a single pitching prospect and what is essentially a throw-in? I like Rojas as a pitching prospect, but we know with the rate pitching prospects hit that's really risky moving Varland for one legit prospect.

I guess if they really didn't believe in Varland going forward and think that he's not going to last as a high leverage / 7th/8th inning reliever then that's more logical. They had better be right about Rojas.

The short answer to your question... that really needs a longer answer. 

Starters always have more potential value than relief pitchers. If he develops into a major league starter... you've won the trade at the very moment regardless of what Varland does going forward. 

Development is always the key to winning trades. The Twins need Rojas to develop. 

I'm not sure if anyone puts any stock in BBTV but in case anybody does. Both Rojas and Roden are basically equal value at the moment. 11.6 and 11 respectively. Varland currently rates a 10.4. 

Again... if BBTV has any value at all... it suggests that both players were equally necessary in order for the Twins to cough up Varland and at the moment... The Twins got back 22.6 in value giving up 10.4

For what it's Worth. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Pirates

Strike while the iron is hot. Matt Wallner, a valuable outfield asset, moves to Pittsburgh and Jared Jones goes west to buy a winter coat for comfort in Minneapolis.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The OF with the highest trade value who probably SHOULD be traded is Wallner at 22.5.  Wallner,  straight up for young Catchers like Kyle Teel (21.4) Edgar Quero (14.6) or Harry Ford (12.5) would be an overpay on the Twins part, with Quero and Ford requiring additional compensation.  Teel straight up works.

It would be shocking if the White Sox traded their young catchers. I'm not sure what Seattle would require for Harry Ford. Maybe the Mariners exchange Ford for Wallner, but it might be a EmRod for Ford deal or Seattle wants Royce for Harry. Whatever, the conversations need to happen.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Trading him for some mediocre vet reliever makes no sense to me. He's only tradable if we could get a younger quality prospect in return or if he gets packaged with someone like Larnach for a real player. That seems pretty unlikely.  

The above references Alan Roden. Roden has some solid skills and potential. What are the Twins plans?

Without a direction it is tryouts for everyone, which could be good but young players also need a rope. They can't be benched after consecutive 0-4 days or be constantly looking for their names on the lineup card. The Twins will need to decide who they are hanging their hopes on. Perhaps Spring Training competition is the deciding point.

Another variable is whether the team trades players such as Joe Ryan. If Joe Ryan was traded and the Twins have an eye on a guy, there may need to be a player or two added to convince an opposing front office to part with the Twins target. In that case, Roden or others can be added to acquire a top prospect/player. Heck, Rojas would also fit as an add-on. 

This offseason should include some change. What it is we cannot know but a repeat of last summer's post All Star action is not a good idea.

[Stew]

Buxton is the best trade bait. But how much more money do  we need to save . The only way Buxton leaves is if we lose both ryan and lopez.. If that's the case, we will spending of about 55 million. And our attendance will be 4 or 5 thousand a game. Think about that. You run the risk of permanently losing some fans. And you can never financially recover . Because these owners will never let loose with enough money to get the talent back in.

[Major League Ready]

52 minutes ago, Stew said:

Buxton is the best trade bait. But how much more money do  we need to save . The only way Buxton leaves is if we lose both ryan and lopez.. If that's the case, we will spending of about 55 million. And our attendance will be 4 or 5 thousand a game. Think about that. You run the risk of permanently losing some fans. And you can never financially recover . Because these owners will never let loose with enough money to get the talent back in.

Without looking it up, I think Houston got down about $30M in payroll and they really sucked.  Fans will be back if they put a quality product on the field. It also won't hurt that the next generation looks like they will be more exciting players capable of a more well-rounded game.  Keaschall / Jenkins / Culpepper / Rodriguez / Roden / Martin are all much more athletic and more capable defenders than most of the players they have been rostering.  

[Brandon]

The projected arbitration salary for Larnarch is 4.7 million.  Who is to say the Twins can't get him signed before the contract offer deadline and get him signed for 4.1 million or so?  I don't think this is that big of an overpay if he continues to hit just better than Kepler.  If he can go back to being 15-20% better than league average then he is a value at that price.  I think that Falvey will want to give his first rounder another shot.  It would be different if Terry Ryan drafted him I think.  

[hitterscount]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner .829 career OPS

 

Larnach .726 career OPS

See that "WAR" column? Pretty huge difference there.

Wallner makes $760k with 4 more years of control, Larnach will make $5MM with 1 year of control. 

In addition, Wallner (despite the TD fan narrative which is pretty easy to debunk with data...) was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, and substantially superior to Larnach. Even with RISP you can see Wallner walked more and struck out less... because pitchers were desperate to pitch around him.

Wallner is also much faster than the below average Larnach (26-27 ft/sec). Wallner's sprint speed was borderline center fielder level (28 ft/sec in prior years), and Wallner is neutral on the basepaths where Larnach has always been a below average base runner.

Summary, Wallner is an elite max exit velo power fly ball hitter with 30HR+ annual potential, above average speed and a cannon arm under team control for 4 more years at league minimum.

Larnach is a medium max exit velo, line drive hitter with 20HR potential, below average speed and an average to below average arm with just next year remaining under team control at 7x the cost of Wallner.

Wallner is borderline CF material, get real. I get it, you love those solo HR' s when we are down 7 or or up 5. OPS most overrated stat there is.  The guy hit.202 last year, and couldn't field RF much less CF. He is near the bottom 90% in range, so yeah, that cannon comes in handy as he watches the ball go to the wall. Throw in he is injured more than healthy and he isn't a guy I am counting on in the OF. I stated many times last year I believe he could have some value at 1st and DH....  we had one of the least productive OF' s in all of baseball last year, hitting and fielding.... so by all means let's run it back. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

7 hours ago, Cris E said:

So much stuff in this thread, both right and wrong, it makes me crazy. Mostly the Twins outfield situation comes down to giving guys a fair chance to come up and play, to work through or around injuries and prove who they are at the high minor and MLB levels.  

Buxton is a superstar when healthy, and he's been missing less time over the past couple years. Keep him as long as he'll play here. The idea that he "deserves" a post-season is trash. So do I, so do we all, and we're not getting paid millions. Everyone is happy if they win, so keep him.

Wallner is a hitter, and the roster does not have many guys with his power (and just not McCasker's empty 40% K power) so you can't be tossing that aside. He can throw real good, but no one cares if he's always starting with his back to the infield chasing a bouncing ball, so put him at 1B or DH and let him hit.  

Larnach has had that chance, and he has staked his claim to being a solid platoon lefty corner OF. That's it, not terrible with the glove, no untapped power potential, just an average LF. That's valuable, but not to the Twins at $4-5m. He might be able to be traded for something, but only an equivalent, fungible back of bullpen arm in the 4.90 ERA range, and not cheap. Do you want someone else's Michael Tonkin or Justin Topa? Because we had some and cut them last week. 

Martin is at this point an outfielder. In 2025 he was up for two months and only saw 2B four times, and that included months after the starting SS was traded and Royce Lewis only playing about 100 games at 3B. In the minors he only played 2B six times vs 25 games in the OF and 4 at DH, and he was last seen at SS in 2022 in AA and never anywhere else. And now Keashall has ended that 2B experiment. But he did hit better this year, and improved his LF defense as well. So is he a future piece in the team's plans? An OBP-driven 106 OPS+ from LF that only stole at a 66% clip with average defense is not a great asset (unless you have a hole there.) Most teams can and should do better, so he stays on as a placeholder until a youngster steals his job (just as Luke took his 2B spot.)

I thought Rodan looked OK until he tore up his hand. He's had a good minor league track record, so I would expect him to start the year in LF.  Outman had a lot of looks and only had one good year in LA. He can reclaim a shot in Mpls with a few good months in St Paul to wash away his 2025. Then you get into the  new kids, and honestly none of them has enough outstanding history to demand a spot at the next level yet so we wait until mid-year.  

In short, move Larnach, play Buxton, Wallner, Roden, some Martin as the fourth and Outman when he demands a shot, and then wait until the kids evolve. They aren't going to spend with Jenkins and the others this close to being ripe. 

EDIT:  I crossed myself up a bit, but I believe Martin is the incumbent for 2026 but I expect Roden to take the starting job from him in spring. 

Agree with your analysis but not your conclusions. I think Martin is your starting LF and they will work with him on his stealing. That's why Grady Sizemore is now a coach - to work with guys on their baserunning. I think Roden has a real shot at a staring OF job or 4th OF position in ST - but it's in RF, not LF.  Wallner is likely to be the primary DH, 2 days a week OF guy, with Roden in RF or at 1B. 

[bean5302]

33 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Wallner is borderline CF material, get real. I get it, you love those solo HR' s when we are down 7 or or up 5. OPS most overrated stat there is.  The guy hit.202 last year, and couldn't field RF much less CF. He is near the bottom 90% in range, so yeah, that cannon comes in handy as he watches the ball go to the wall. Throw in he is injured more than healthy and he isn't a guy I am counting on in the OF. I stated many times last year I believe he could have some value at 1st and DH....  we had one of the least productive OF' s in all of baseball last year, hitting and fielding.... so by all means let's run it back. 

That's what you took away from my comment? I never said Wallner was a good outfielder. I just addressed your point(s) which aren't backed up by the stats I can pull. 

Injured all the time? Wanna go there?

2025 - 100G
2024 - 142G
2023 - 143G
2022 - 146G

[DocBauer]

Sorry, but the OF depth is good for the Twins, but I don't really see trade value here.

Buxton is going nowhere, and doesn't want to go anywhere. He's only stated that IF the Twins continue to break down the roster to a complete rebuild, he'd consider waiving his no trade clause. Who could blame him? I sure wouldn't! He is a face of the franchise type of player, classy, and very dedicated to the Twins. IF he feels alienated by ownership in any way, that is complete malfeasance.

Wallner had a down season. We all get that. But he's only 28yo, is inexpensive, and provides the best LH power this team has currently. His combined OPS in 2023-24 was around .870. He's PERFECT as the primary DH who can play some OF for the Twins going forward. But they would be silly to move him. They really need his LH power bat. Period.

I actually like Larnach. He's an OK OF who is better as a DH. He's a league average hitter overall, but above league average if platooned against LHP. I still think that might be of value to a team out there, but I'm not sure about the value in return for an expected price tag of about $4.5-4.7M. I'm HOPING that he, or with a marginal prospect, might bring back someone's #4-5 pen arm back in a deal from a team short of solid LH bats. I hope I'm right, but he's the only OF that I see actually being traded. 

Martin? He finally begins to look like a ML hitter who has suddenly is playing good defense, isn't old, is inexpensive, and they would move him now? Absolutely don't see the return value vs what he can bring to the 2026 team.

Apologies to new hitting coach Keith Beauregard and sorry to Falvey's ego, but there is virtually ZERO reason to have Outman on the Twins 40 man roster. He should be dropped and offered a MILB deal. He's not going to get a better offer from anyone else.

Roden is getting a bum rap after a poor rookie debut between TWO teams and a very limited number of AB. And he sure doesn't have trade value despite having some potential. He could be a quasi platoon corner OF who can cover CF here and there, and could be a possible 1B candidate depending how the offseason goes. It wouldn't be absolutely crazy to see him and 2025 surprise player Fedko function as a quasi platoon at 1B who both can also function as 4th OF depending on their performance and the offseason and how payroll and possible additions take place.

And the Twins aren't going to move Jenkins, and moving Rodriguez could be a disaster if he's healthy and ready to go. That has the potential to be another Ortiz type haunting of the franchise. 

And Gonzalez and even Rosario weren't even mentioned for depth purposes. More and more, there's just no reason for Outman to even have a 40 man spot for MILB adds, potential FA roster adds, and maybe even a good rule 5 BP potential add.

Larnach is the only realistic OF that might be moved for something. 

Trading the talented, powerful, inexpensive, and relatively young Wallner for a team looking for offense just makes ZERO sense!

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

That's what you took away from my comment? I never said Wallner was a good outfielder. I just addressed your point(s) which aren't backed up by the stats I can pull. 

Injured all the time? Wanna go there?

2025 - 100G
2024 - 142G
2023 - 143G
2022 - 146G

846 careercAB's in 3 1/2 seasons, You think he's a really good OF, I get it. I happen to  believe he's a lousy defensive OF whose value is all those solo HR's at  meaningless moments, until the season was over, than he heated up slightly. Look, this seems a lot like the president, you either believe every word he says or you don't. There's no changing anyone's mind at this point. What I will say , we have some high upside minor league OF talent, personally I would prefer for them to get a shot. If Wallners is as good as you claim and we get a  haul in a tradecI will admit I didn't see his value.

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner .829 career OPS

 

Larnach .726 career OPS

See that "WAR" column? Pretty huge difference there.

Wallner makes $760k with 4 more years of control, Larnach will make $5MM with 1 year of control. 

In addition, Wallner (despite the TD fan narrative which is pretty easy to debunk with data...) was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, and substantially superior to Larnach. Even with RISP you can see Wallner walked more and struck out less... because pitchers were desperate to pitch around him.

Wallner is also much faster than the below average Larnach (26-27 ft/sec). Wallner's sprint speed was borderline center fielder level (28 ft/sec in prior years), and Wallner is neutral on the basepaths where Larnach has always been a below average base runner.

Summary, Wallner is an elite max exit velo power fly ball hitter with 30HR+ annual potential, above average speed and a cannon arm under team control for 4 more years at league minimum.

Larnach is a medium max exit velo, line drive hitter with 20HR potential, below average speed and an average to below average arm with just next year remaining under team control at 7x the cost of Wallner.

Wallner is at 0 WPA for his career, his stats also start to cave as the game situation tightens up. I think it was Ashbury that dug up the numbers, but they matched the eye test. 

Saying Wallner is neutral on the bases while Larnach is below average is hyperbolic, they're within a single run year or year as far as baserunning runs or run value. Neither steals enough or is aggressive enough on the bases for anything else to matter. They're basically the same player in that category. 

Wallner's top speed might exceed Larnach's, but it sure isn't helping him in the field. Either his reads are poor and/or he takes too long to reach that speed because his range is awful, even playing one of the smallest RFs in baseball half the time. The arm strength isn't enough to make up for his lack of range either. He's going to give up way more hits failing to get to balls than he'll ever wipe away throwing out runners trying to advance. Daulton Varsho was starting in CF for Toronto during the WS with one of the worst arms (post recovery) in baseball because he could still get to everything. 

Both guys are negative defenders who do nothing on the bases. Their BB rate is nearly identical. Larnach will hit for a slightly higher average and K less often, Wallner will hit more HRs plus like you said he costs less and has more years of team control. 

[Bodie]

Have a hard time taking this seriously...

One (and precisely one!) MLB outfielder hardly qualifies as depth. And that one cannot be counted on as a regular. 

#FireFailvey.

[Bodie]

21 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

agree wiith @Mahoning what the Twins have is Buxton, a left handed platoon/DH (Wallner), a couple of prospects and bunch of replacement level players. 

 

Not even replacement level...

Seatle has the "Big Dumper", we've got the the Big Dumpster Fire...

[rv78]

Currently, there are 10 outfielders on the Twins 40 man. Why are Keirsey Jr, Kreidler, Outman and McCusker there? Are the barely above .100 batting averages they provide that valuable? Who the H E doubletoothpicks would take them? I understand needing depth, but these guys are absolutely a waste of roster spots. Add in Gasper and Fitzgerald from the infield and you need to start drinking the hardest liquor you can find. You can be passed out drunk and it still doesn't make sense. 

As for anyone thinking The Twins are going to move Wallner or anyone else to 1B, think again. They have Clemens, who with his 19 HR last year has become Falveys favorite to keep the job. Those 19 HR in 348 AB's translates into a 30+HR guy over a full season. If Falvey keeps the 6 guys listed above, that can't hit, he isn't going to replace Clemens with anybody. 

[SteveLV]

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Clemons a FA?  The Twins may re-sign him, but we don't "have" him as of today, do we?

[Major League Ready]

26 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Clemons a FA?  The Twins may re-sign him, but we don't "have" him as of today, do we?

He is not even arbitration eligible yet.  He will be a free agent in 2030.   My guess is he will be here for a while.  A guy that can hit league average and play decent defense at 1B/2B and outfield is a good bench player.  If he can hit a little above average, he is basically Willie Castro.

[harmony55]

On 11/14/2025 at 7:22 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

If you use BBTV as the baseline for defining "value" (this takes production, skill, age and contract into consideration) Buxton is valued at 19.0.  Wallner on the other hand is valued at 22.5.  In comparison, Martin is a 2.0, Gabe Gonzalez is 8.2, Roden 10.6, Larnach 1.3, E-Rod 24.1 and Walker Jenkins 53.3.

***

The OF with the highest trade value who probably SHOULD be traded is Wallner at 22.5.  Wallner,  straight up for young Catchers like Kyle Teel (21.4) Edgar Quero (14.6) or Harry Ford (12.5) would be an overpay on the Twins part, with Quero and Ford requiring additional compensation.  Teel straight up works.

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Seattle catcher Harry Ford a surplus value of $21 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=harry+ford

The Mariners have more pressing needs at other positions given the pending returns of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley and Victor Robles to the outfield.

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Wallner is at 0 WPA for his career, his stats also start to cave as the game situation tightens up. I think it was Ashbury that dug up the numbers, but they matched the eye test. 

I'm wondering if the debate is now changing from Wallner and Larnach are the same player and worth the same value to whether or not Wallner is a guaranteed stud? A neutral source like BTV makes it very clear models don't support Wallner and Larnach being remotely comparable which is what I've been talking about.

Wallner was +0.70 WPA until last year, but like fielding metrics, WPA can have wild swings so let's remove Wallners 2 significant seasons before last year and focus only on 2025. @ashbury may have dug up some numbers, but there are always going to be stats that support a narrative if you work hard enough to find them. I did point out the fact Wallner's production was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, but lets ignore that and focus only on high leverage. With RISP and for high leverage (all 30 plate appearances🙄 ) his production was lower, but his walk rate was highest and his K rate was lowest.

When I'm going to use a stat like WPA, I want to know about sample size and why things happened the way they did. In Wallner's case, limited to last year only because the narrative isn't supported by his first 2 significant seasons.

High leverage last year, Wallner had a .000 BABIP on 18 balls in play despite his hard hit rate being the highest of the 3 categories (low/med/high leverage). Do you think that's sustainable? That's where WPA comes from. SSS often luck fueled results in high leverage situations. Toss out five games last year, and Wallner's WPA isn't even negative. In those worst WPA games, Wallner never struck out more than one time in the game. Ground out (8/20), pop up (6/22), fly out (9/5), line out+foul-tip (6/14), strike out (9/13). 6 plate appearances fed the vast majority of Wallner's negative WPA last year.

 

 

[killertwinfan]

To a team with few valuable assets I suppose these guys make it onto the balance sheet.  However, trading some these pieces for a player who may make a difference in our line up this year or next is a pipe dream. 
 

I feel bad for the writers trying to find information that will draw interest. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Seattle catcher Harry Ford a surplus value of $21 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=harry+ford

The Mariners have more pressing needs at other positions given the pending returns of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley and Victor Robles to the outfield.

Harmony55! You are back. What Twins do you have your eye on this year?