Why Minnesota Twins’ Outfield Depth Could Be a Valuable Offseason Asset

[harmony55]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Harmony55! You are back. What Twins do you have your eye on this year?

🙂

Mild interest in Royce Lewis with a FanGraphs projection of 2.6 WAR in 131 games and a projected arbitration salary of $3 million.

However, might prefer a return of Mariner third baseman Ben Williamson with his projected 1.8 WAR in 130 games at a league minimum salary.

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

However, might prefer a return of Mariner third baseman Ben Williamson

Somehow I think the Mariners want more than 1 HR from a third baseman, but he did manage to get his OPS over .600 and he does play a good glove at the hot corner. Never know though. We all start at the bottom.

What would the Mariners send over for Royce Lewis?

[harmony55]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Somehow I think the Mariners want more than 1 HR from a third baseman, but he did manage to get his OPS over .600 and he does play a good glove at the hot corner. Never know though. We all start at the bottom.

What would the Mariners send over for Royce Lewis?

Poor defense cost the Mariners this season. A step down from Ben Williamson to Royce Lewis could be tough:

https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leaderboard/players?position=5

The Mariners might have interest in Mick Abel or Taj Bradley but a Seattle trade package for either pitcher and Lewis is difficult to compile.

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Poor defense cost the Mariners this season. A step down from Ben Williamson to Royce Lewis could be tough:

https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leaderboard/players?position=5

The Mariners might have interest in Mick Abel or Taj Bradley but a Seattle trade package for either pitcher and Lewis is difficult to compile.

DRS doesn't like Royce Lewis while OAA does. Both are prone to pretty wild swings and neither is remotely accurate for a single year sample size.

That said, I expect Williamson is going to be elite at 3B, and he could probably cover SS more than adequately. Great glove, plenty of speed/range, and at least a passable arm at SS. Williamson isn't going to be replaced by Royce Lewis. Seattle would have to move somebody else.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 11/14/2025 at 7:40 AM, Mahoning said:

Depth? The only ones any other team would covet are Buxton and Jenkins. Total trade value of the rest is minimal. 

Depth? Or quality depth?

they certainly have volume of players who can theoretically play the outfield in AAA and the majors.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 11/14/2025 at 5:32 PM, Brandon said:

The projected arbitration salary for Larnarch is 4.7 million.  Who is to say the Twins can't get him signed before the contract offer deadline and get him signed for 4.1 million or so?  I don't think this is that big of an overpay if he continues to hit just better than Kepler.  If he can go back to being 15-20% better than league average then he is a value at that price.  I think that Falvey will want to give his first rounder another shot.  It would be different if Terry Ryan drafted him I think.  

Why would the Twins or Twins fans want Larnach back next year? to block Erod, GG, Jenkins, or even Martin or Roden, Larnach makes absolutely no sense on the Twins next year. 

The Twins need better than just better than Kepler, hopefully one of GG, Erod, Jenks is that guy. But keeping them three blocked by Larnach, Outman, Keirsay, Martin, Roden is a terrible plan.  

[KirbyDome89]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm wondering if the debate is now changing from Wallner and Larnach are the same player and worth the same value to whether or not Wallner is a guaranteed stud? A neutral source like BTV makes it very clear models don't support Wallner and Larnach being remotely comparable which is what I've been talking about.

Wallner was +0.70 WPA until last year, but like fielding metrics, WPA can have wild swings so let's remove Wallners 2 significant seasons before last year and focus only on 2025. @ashbury may have dug up some numbers, but there are always going to be stats that support a narrative if you work hard enough to find them. I did point out the fact Wallner's production was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, but lets ignore that and focus only on high leverage. With RISP and for high leverage (all 30 plate appearances🙄 ) his production was lower, but his walk rate was highest and his K rate was lowest.

When I'm going to use a stat like WPA, I want to know about sample size and why things happened the way they did. In Wallner's case, limited to last year only because the narrative isn't supported by his first 2 significant seasons.

High leverage last year, Wallner had a .000 BABIP on 18 balls in play despite his hard hit rate being the highest of the 3 categories (low/med/high leverage). Do you think that's sustainable? That's where WPA comes from. SSS often luck fueled results in high leverage situations. Toss out five games last year, and Wallner's WPA isn't even negative. In those worst WPA games, Wallner never struck out more than one time in the game. Ground out (8/20), pop up (6/22), fly out (9/5), line out+foul-tip (6/14), strike out (9/13). 6 plate appearances fed the vast majority of Wallner's negative WPA last year.

 

 

We're talking about 1,000 PAs. Sure, highest leverage can do the most damange positively or negatively, and that's going to be your smallest sample size, but if you want to start parsing it down to single events, his 5 highest WPA totals were nearly identical to his lowest 5. I'm not really buying the bad luck/lack of opportunities argument if the top mirrors the bottom in a sample size that spans 2+ seasons. 

Of course Wallner is more valuable via BTV, like you said, he costs a fraction of what Larnach does and that doesn't change for the next few years. Is anybody actually arguing otherwise? 

As far as the "narrative," stuff goes, your comparison seemed rather slanted, so I pushed back. If that means I'm pushing an agenda then guilty as charged I suppose. 

[KBJ1]

I agree wiith those who said we have Buxton, Jenkins and Who cares.

One has to assume the title of this article "outfield depth" is a joke.

Trading a cheap controllable potential closer in Varland for mediocrity was insane. We 2 OF, no bullpen, no 1B, no SS and a guy who should be playing LF, not 3B.

This franchise is a joke and it's MLB's fault. Until MLB implements a complete revenue sharing program, like the NFL, baseball will be 4 or 5 haves and 28 have nots. Outfield depth? Please.

Trading  Buxton, while perhaps tempting to ownership, would be foolish. Simply for the fact that a replacement with his ability would cost 2 or 3x more. If we had 3 Jenkins waiting in the wings, sure. But they don't even have serviceable replacents, let alone any potentual stars.

[jorgenswest]

Trevor Larnach for Luis Campusano?

It is possible neither will be then tendered and become free agents. The Padres have two right handed starting corner outfielders and Larnach would fit there better than here. The Padres did not give Campusano any time at catcher in his intermittent major league call ups last year. He played catcher and crushed the ball in AAA. The Twins need help at catcher.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Until MLB implements a complete revenue sharing program, like the NFL, baseball will be 4 or 5 haves and 28 have nots.

Nevermind that your # of teams adds to 33.

Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Astros, Phillies, Rangers, Giants, Braves and Red Sox would be "haves". That's 1/3 of the league. Toronto, Seattle, San Diego and St. Louis don't seem to have any problem competing. That makes half the league.

The only real "have nots" are the Athletics and Rays who are playing in minor league stadiums and the White Sox who have lost their market to the Cubs.

The Twins are estimated to have as much revenue as any other team in the AL Central. They can easily afford a $140M payroll. If everything was split exactly fairly, they would have $80M more revenue than they currently have.

[Brandon]

On 11/17/2025 at 5:09 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why would the Twins or Twins fans want Larnach back next year? to block Erod, GG, Jenkins, or even Martin or Roden, Larnach makes absolutely no sense on the Twins next year. 

The Twins need better than just better than Kepler, hopefully one of GG, Erod, Jenks is that guy. But keeping them three blocked by Larnach, Outman, Keirsay, Martin, Roden is a terrible plan.  

I was thinking Larnarch could move to 1B or DH and get traded if hitting at the trade deadline.  Would love to get something for him.  I doubt any of the above prospects would take too many at bats away from Larnarch at the start of the season.