Why Minnesota Twins’ Outfield Depth Could Be a Valuable Offseason Asset

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

You need to keep all your prospects to give yourself the best chance to get some that actually make it.

This sentence right here.

Everyone needs to understand this sentence. 

I'd change "all" to most but this sentence right here describes how this needs to work. 

Outfield needs to be sorted out and how much sorting will get it's first clue when we find out how many outfielders end up on the 40 man when the rosters must be set. 

There is only X amount of space that any major league club can devote to 40 man OF roster spots without severely limiting roster space for all the other positions. I don't know what that number should be but... it seems like anything over 8 would start to compromise the space needed for Pitching, Catching and Infield on the 40 man. 

There are currently 9 OF on the 40 man and that's before you even consider GG, Rosario, Fedko and Mendez who are due R5 protection within a week or exposure is risked and that doesn't include Jenkins either. 

The Twins will need to clean this up. How much cleaning up? Let's see what it looks like a week from now.      

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

That could be too. With the 40 man deadline coming up on Tuesday to protect players from the rule 5 draft, I have to think lots of teams have players in the bucket that they don't REALLY want them on their 26 man roster anymore, and seeing if they can move that for something they need more of.

For example, I would LOVE Sam Hentges from Cleveland if he is healthy this offseason. He's set to make about 3 million or so in arbitration. They probably aren't trading him to Minnesota, and especially not for Larnach, but that's the type of move I'm hoping for. A reliever who has good stuff who is probably coming off an injury.

Sure, that'd be great, but I'm not sure why the other team would do that. Good stuff and just a health concern is a better player than Larnach simply not being good enough for his money. Why would the other team give up the guy with a legit chance to be good? 

I hope they can get something for him. Even if it's a no name prospect that likely never even reaches the majors. I always prefer to get something instead of nothing. I just don't see the motivation for other teams to trade for him when they can sign him or the equivalent for less at any time of the offseason. I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see a trade happening.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Sure, that'd be great, but I'm not sure why the other team would do that. Good stuff and just a health concern is a better player than Larnach simply not being good enough for his money. Why would the other team give up the guy with a legit chance to be good? 

I hope they can get something for him. Even if it's a no name prospect that likely never even reaches the majors. I always prefer to get something instead of nothing. I just don't see the motivation for other teams to trade for him when they can sign him or the equivalent for less at any time of the offseason. I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see a trade happening.

You very well could be right. Maybe there isn't a market for him. That wouldn't shock me at all.

I'm just guessing at the intention of what they would be looking for prior to just outright designating him. There very much are teams out there that have next to zero power who could see taking a chance on a former 1st round pick who actually hit righties pretty good in 2025. 

[TopGunn#22]

If you use BBTV as the baseline for defining "value" (this takes production, skill, age and contract into consideration) Buxton is valued at 19.0.  Wallner on the other hand is valued at 22.5.  In comparison, Martin is a 2.0, Gabe Gonzalez is 8.2, Roden 10.6, Larnach 1.3, E-Rod 24.1 and Walker Jenkins 53.3.

Larnach at 1.3 and someone like Pierson Ohl 2.2 would be worth a Camilo Doval 3.5 type of relief pitcher if the Yankees thought Larnach could MASH in Yankee stadium and the salary of Doval was in the ballpark of Larnach.  But that's a lot of "if's." 

 

The OF with the highest trade value who probably SHOULD be traded is Wallner at 22.5.  Wallner,  straight up for young Catchers like Kyle Teel (21.4) Edgar Quero (14.6) or Harry Ford (12.5) would be an overpay on the Twins part, with Quero and Ford requiring additional compensation.  Teel straight up works.

Would I be willing to gamble trading Wallner's tremendous power for a young, everyday backstop?  ABSOLUTELY.  Would the White Sox or Mariners be interested in this kind of deal?  But Falvey won't know unless he aggressively pursues it. 

The theme of this article isn't so much that the Twins are loaded with OF on the major league roster.  It's that the guys on the roster have some kind of value that could be capitalized on because Jenkins, E-Rod, and Gabe Gonzalez are coming, sooner rather than later.  And that Roden, Martin and Outman while not initially showing much on offense are each FAR superior defensively than Wallner & Larnach. 

The disquieting development in this conversation is that Byron Buxton's name has seeped into the discussion.  At $15 million per year Buxton is the BEST bargain in all of baseball !!  That his frustration with ownership and the FO has reached the point that he may request a trade is a crushing blow to the fan-base that has already taken enough body blows.  Trading Buxton would be the knockout punch to Twins fans.  Far more than trading Joe Ryan.   

[rv78]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It could be, but I think it'd be a bad one. Taking on $5 million deals for guys who aren't worth $5 million is not good team building strategy. It's why teams don't do it often. I think the Larnach situation is far more of a comp to Eddie Rosario than Nick Gordon. They'll try to trade him but he's much more likely to be non-tendered at that price point.

All they need to do is find a FO that thinks Gallo is worth $11M. Yeah, that Falvey guy might go for it. Crap, Falvey's is on our team.

[Nashvilletwin]

I’m dreaming of a Gonzalez, Jenkins, ERod starting OF after the all star break/trade deadline timeframe.  Let them get a solid almost 1/2 year under their belts before the lockout.  I’d tune in to watch those three every day with Keaschall. Sadly, I still have the under on ERod as a major leaguer, but let’s see.

Trade Buck.  I’d love to watch him play some meaningful October baseball.  He deserves it.  His haul should be incredible.  Keep building with 2028 in mind.

Wallner gets a year to mostly DH and develop against lefties.  Maybe Shelton will make the investment Rocco never did.  Might as well see how he does given his power.  He can platoon in RF as needed.

Martin is the spark plug utility player every team needs. Maybe Shelton can teach him how to improve his base running. He stays as a 4th outfielder/late inning pinch runner/ pinch hitter type who can play in the infield in an emergency.

The rest? Meh.  Get a reliever for Larnach if you can.  Rhoden and Outman may see major league innings early in the year, but should be AAA injury call up guys come mid July/early August.

 

[Brandon]

Or..... instead of trading the extra outfielders for an area of need.  Since these guys are not making much we could MOVE them to an area of need too.  We need a 1B.  Enter Walner.  We could use a DH.  Enter Larnarch.  Now we have two OF spots open and 3 OF prospects E Rod, Jenkins, and Gonzales ready to step in. 

If Lee succeeds at SS or if Culpepper comes up and succeeds we could finish the year with a really good lineup the second half of the season if all goes well  developmentally.  

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You very well could be right. Maybe there isn't a market for him. That wouldn't shock me at all.

I'm just guessing at the intention of what they would be looking for prior to just outright designating him. There very much are teams out there that have next to zero power who could see taking a chance on a former 1st round pick who actually hit righties pretty good in 2025. 

He hit even better in 2024.  I think you both have a point.  Hopefully, there is a team that believes the 2026 version of Larnach will be like the well above average 2024 Larnach.   That should yield an A baller with a shot at someday contributing.  Seems reasonable.  

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Sure, that'd be great, but I'm not sure why the other team would do that. Good stuff and just a health concern is a better player than Larnach simply not being good enough for his money. Why would the other team give up the guy with a legit chance to be good? 

I hope they can get something for him. Even if it's a no name prospect that likely never even reaches the majors. I always prefer to get something instead of nothing. I just don't see the motivation for other teams to trade for him when they can sign him or the equivalent for less at any time of the offseason. I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see a trade happening.

I've been a staunch Larnach defender in the face of stiff winds on Twinsdaily. However... I would certainly consider a trade of Larnach for a decent reliever... if possible and the possible part is what I just don't know. 

In regards to Cleveland specifically. Even with Larnach's extremely average .727 OPS last year. That OPS would have ranked third behind Ramirez and Manzardo if he was with Cleveland last year. 

Cleveland isn't going to spend significant free agent money and rumors are heavy that Kwan is on the trade block.

I can't rule out Cleveland interest in Trevor Larnach.  

[rv78]

Isn't it great to have another article pointing out the poor condition of this organization? We have a glut of outfielders and once you move beyond Buxton, there really isn't any one of them in that glut, that anyone else would want. Maybe Martin but he hasn't proven anything beyond his 2 months at the end of the 2025 season. Wallner and Larnach are poor defenders and situational hitters. Outman and Roden have shown nothing. The rest are prospects with no major league experience. If you think Falvey has only destroyed the bullpen, then you haven't looked at the outfield lately. He has turned the "No rain drops fall" into a leaky dam patched with bubble gum and silly putty.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've been a staunch Larnach defender in the face of stiff winds on Twinsdaily. However... I would certainly consider a trade of Larnach for a decent reliever... if possible and the possible part is what I just don't know. 

In regards to Cleveland specifically. Even with Larnach's extremely average .727 OPS last year. That OPS would have ranked third behind Ramirez and Manzardo if he was with Cleveland last year. 

Cleveland isn't going to spend significant free agent money and rumors are heavy that Kwan is on the trade block.

I can't rule out Cleveland interest in Trevor Larnach.  

I don't doubt at all that Larnach will be on an opening day roster in 2026 (assuming health). I'm absolutely not trying to suggest he isn't worthy of an MLB roster spot. My only contention is that he's worth anything in trade. He isn't worth the 4.7 or 5ish mil in arb money he's due next year. Teams don't generally trade useful pieces for guys that aren't worth their contract. 

I think Cleveland is definitely a team that would call Trevor's agents if/when he's non-tendered. Just like Eddie Rosario landed in Cleveland after he was non-tendered. But it'll be for more like 3 mil instead of 5. 

Trevor will get a spot on a roster as a platoon DH/cOFer next year. I don't have any doubts at all about that. I just don't think it'll be here and I don't think he'll be traded.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't doubt at all that Larnach will be on an opening day roster in 2026 (assuming health). I'm absolutely not trying to suggest he isn't worthy of an MLB roster spot. My only contention is that he's worth anything in trade. He isn't worth the 4.7 or 5ish mil in arb money he's due next year. Teams don't generally trade useful pieces for guys that aren't worth their contract. 

I think Cleveland is definitely a team that would call Trevor's agents if/when he's non-tendered. Just like Eddie Rosario landed in Cleveland after he was non-tendered. But it'll be for more like 3 mil instead of 5. 

Trevor will get a spot on a roster as a platoon DH/cOFer next year. I don't have any doubts at all about that. I just don't think it'll be here and I don't think he'll be traded.

All possible. 

This better be an interesting off-season for our Twins. 

[Nashvilletwin]

When you think about it, if things go really well, the Twins could enter 2028 with an outfield of GG, Jenkins, and ERod, an infield of Culpepper, Chowolsky, Houston and Keaschall, and a super young catcher in Tait.  All could have some major league experience entering that year.  They’d all be basically on rookie/minimum type deals.

Sure, there will be growing pains and that lineup shouldn’t be expected to win right out of the gate.  But they sure as hell would be fun to watch and many of them should be the core of a contending team from 2029 on.

Given we should not be expected to compete in 2026, and with a long lockout pending in 2027, developing these players and building around them on the mound and with some veterans (C, 1B, DH, etc.) should be the strategy.  Go for it.  Don’t lay up with settling for mediocrity over the next couple of years at these players expense.

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Tell me what's the difference between them, a couple OPS points... I will never understand how people think they are that different and I stated this last spring training. Both below average defenders (although some love Wallners arm to make throws on the balls he couldn't get to) slow on the base paths, low contact that rarely advance runners, pretty high K rates, cannot hit left handed pitching. In all honesty, I'd take Larnach over Wallner, IMO if you need a clutch hit Id prefer to see him at the plate. 

Wallner .829 career OPS

 

Larnach .726 career OPS

See that "WAR" column? Pretty huge difference there.

Wallner makes $760k with 4 more years of control, Larnach will make $5MM with 1 year of control. 

In addition, Wallner (despite the TD fan narrative which is pretty easy to debunk with data...) was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, and substantially superior to Larnach. Even with RISP you can see Wallner walked more and struck out less... because pitchers were desperate to pitch around him.

Wallner is also much faster than the below average Larnach (26-27 ft/sec). Wallner's sprint speed was borderline center fielder level (28 ft/sec in prior years), and Wallner is neutral on the basepaths where Larnach has always been a below average base runner.

Summary, Wallner is an elite max exit velo power fly ball hitter with 30HR+ annual potential, above average speed and a cannon arm under team control for 4 more years at league minimum.

Larnach is a medium max exit velo, line drive hitter with 20HR potential, below average speed and an average to below average arm with just next year remaining under team control at 7x the cost of Wallner.

[Patzky]

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've been a staunch Larnach defender in the face of stiff winds on Twinsdaily. However... I would certainly consider a trade of Larnach for a decent reliever... if possible and the possible part is what I just don't know. 

In regards to Cleveland specifically. Even with Larnach's extremely average .727 OPS last year. That OPS would have ranked third behind Ramirez and Manzardo if he was with Cleveland last year. 

Cleveland isn't going to spend significant free agent money and rumors are heavy that Kwan is on the trade block.

I can't rule out Cleveland interest in Trevor Larnach.  

Mets, Orioles, Dodgers, anyone but Cleveland please.

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

All possible. 

This better be an interesting off-season for our Twins. 

If they sit around and do nothing I'm going to somehow find another level of disappointment in them. They absolutely can't just sit on their hands and go into 2026 with this roster.

[Riverbrian]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

If they sit around and do nothing I'm going to somehow find another level of disappointment in them. The absolutely can't just sit on their hands and go into 2026 with this roster.

Whatever started at the trade deadline last year.

It certainly isn't finished. 

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Mets, Orioles, Dodgers, anyone but Cleveland please.

The most plausible candidates will be teams that lack above average hitters. 

The White Sox would be another candidate based on that criteria. 

[The Great Hambino]

The Curious Case of Matt Wallner makes me wish RBI were presented as a rate stat and not a counting stat.  RBI opportunities are not distributed equally

This is Wallner last year.  4 fewer RBI than average for his number of PAs ... but 41 fewer runners on base than average, including 28 fewer runners in scoring position than average.  That's important context in trying to figure out why his RBI totals were lagging behind the rest of his statistical profile

[Brandon]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner .829 career OPS

 

Larnach .726 career OPS

See that "WAR" column? Pretty huge difference there.

Wallner makes $760k with 4 more years of control, Larnach will make $5MM with 1 year of control. 

In addition, Wallner (despite the TD fan narrative which is pretty easy to debunk with data...) was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, and substantially superior to Larnach. Even with RISP you can see Wallner walked more and struck out less... because pitchers were desperate to pitch around him.

Wallner is also much faster than the below average Larnach (26-27 ft/sec). Wallner's sprint speed was borderline center fielder level (28 ft/sec in prior years), and Wallner is neutral on the basepaths where Larnach has always been a below average base runner.

Summary, Wallner is an elite max exit velo power fly ball hitter with 30HR+ annual potential, above average speed and a cannon arm under team control for 4 more years at league minimum.

Larnach is a medium max exit velo, line drive hitter with 20HR potential, below average speed and an average to below average arm with just next year remaining under team control at 7x the cost of Wallner.

Larnarch has just over 4 years of service time.  The Twins have two more seasons of control over him.

Trevor Larnach Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

The Twins liked Roden enough to value him at half of Louie Varland... they had better be right about him.

More like 20% of Louie Varland. That trade was all about Rojas.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Am I wrong in assuming that Martin is set to be a Willi Castro type utility option? If he plays like he did in September I don't know that he needs to be penciled into one starting role. He can play 4-5 days a week even at all 3 outfield spots and also maybe some 2b. 

 

Willi Castro played 20 games at 5 different positions, including 3B and SS. Austin Martin cannot climb the defensive ladder to become that sort of utility player. Willi Castro he is not. 

A utility player that is mostly limited to LF and 2B is not a utility player but just a role player. That doesn't mean he can't be valuable in that role, but it's not utility. 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Am I wrong in assuming that Martin is set to be a Willi Castro type utility option? If he plays like he did in September I don't know that he needs to be penciled into one starting role. He can play 4-5 days a week even at all 3 outfield spots and also maybe some 2b. 

 

I think Castro was misued playing all those positions and I think it would be worse for Martin.  Castro was overplayed in 2024 resulting in a significant decline the last 2 months of the season.  In 2025 he was not great at any of his positions.  Martin should be limited to left field and 2nd base as, to my eyes, those are his two best defensive positions.  I hope they hang onto Martin because I like that he brings speed and athleticism to the lineup.  That said, he is not a guy to build around.  He is a decent piece. 

I can't imagine Larnach on the team next year even though he may not bring back much, if anything in trade value.  I also have no problem if they trade Wallner.  The Twins need to be more athletic.  Lastly, I am not terribly bullish on Emma and think he might be able to bring some value as part of a trade.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Willi Castro played 20 games at 5 different positions, including 3B and SS. Austin Martin cannot climb the defensive ladder to become that sort of utility player. Willi Castro he is not. 

A utility player that is mostly limited to LF and 2B is not a utility player but just a role player. That doesn't mean he can't be valuable in that role, but it's not utility. 

See, even last year Martin did play all 3 outfield spots and 2b. I'm not saying he should also play 3, but he can be a role/utility player on this team. 

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Or..... instead of trading the extra outfielders for an area of need.  Since these guys are not making much we could MOVE them to an area of need too.  We need a 1B.  Enter Walner.  We could use a DH.  Enter Larnarch.  

I'd rather cut Larnach, DH Wallner and spend the $5M on someone who already knows how to play 1B.

[Riverbrian]

54 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Larnarch has just over 4 years of service time.  The Twins have two more seasons of control over him.

Trevor Larnach Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Bottom Line. It's a critical year for Trevor and I wish him well... and I also believe he can do what needs to be done.   

Next year he will be on an expiring contract with an Arb number around 8 million. 

If Larnach is with the Twins or someone else this year. Trevor needs to OPS over .800 which is something he hasn't done before.

I still believe he can do this but he will need around 25 dingers over 450 AB's or so to get there. A little increase in OBP would aldo be helpful. 

I'm not crazy enough to bet anything of value to support my belief in Trevor but the guy is a major league level hitter.    

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m dreaming of a Gonzalez, Jenkins, ERod starting OF after the all star break/trade deadline timeframe.  Let them get a solid almost 1/2 year under their belts before the lockout.  I’d tune in to watch those three every day with Keaschall. Sadly, I still have the under on ERod as a major leaguer, but let’s see.

Trade Buck.  I’d love to watch him play some meaningful October baseball.  He deserves it.  His haul should be incredible.  Keep building with 2028 in mind.

Wallner gets a year to mostly DH and develop against lefties.  Maybe Shelton will make the investment Rocco never did.  Might as well see how he does given his power.  He can platoon in RF as needed.

Martin is the spark plug utility player every team needs. Maybe Shelton can teach him how to improve his base running. He stays as a 4th outfielder/late inning pinch runner/ pinch hitter type who can play in the infield in an emergency.

The rest? Meh.  Get a reliever for Larnach if you can.  Rhoden and Outman may see major league innings early in the year, but should be AAA injury call up guys come mid July/early August.

 

If Outman is getting MLB innings at any point in the year TC is in big trouble.

[PatPfund]

Ah, the eternal myth of the Twins OF depth. Their starting OF is roughly one star (Buxton); a mediocre player who is likely to be non-tendered and therefore has no trade return (Larnach); and a guy with mediocre defense, huge power but also huge holes in his swing, and an inability to stay on the field (Wallner, who goes into his age 28 season next year only clearing 80 MLB games played once, and who peaked last year at 104 where he looked a bit exposed). Backing them is a promising Martin whose athleticism flashed once Rocco stopped treating him like Castro, Roden who might be good, but hasn't been so far, Outman and Keirsey who can get the ball but can't hit it at an MLB level, and the prospects.

On the trade market, that essentially boils down to Buxton and the prospects if you want any meaningful return, and Buxton has a no-trade deal he has been clear (despite speculation) about not waiving. While trading the prospects like Emma and Jenkins is just goofy. 

I expect they non-tender Larnach, try Wallner at 1B, and Outman/Keirsey are either DFA'd/org-depth at best holding spots until Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and/or Jenkins displace them. Maybe when Martin and Roden get pushed to the bench you can say we have depth, but right now we just have bodies and a no-trade star.

[The Great Hambino]

Any word on where Keaschall's arm recovery sits at this point in time.  Because if it doesn't look great for the future, then I think he might be a better internal candidate to wind up at 1B over any of the current outfielders.

I just can't get past the thought that if they thought Wallner and/or Larnach were good candidates to make that move, then they would've at least tried doing so already

[Parfigliano]

24 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The most plausible candidates will be teams that lack above average hitters. 

The White Sox would be another candidate based on that criteria. 

Pirates