Letting Sonny Gray Walk Sparked the Twins’ Downward Spiral

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

Gray was never going to sign with the Twins.  He wanted to play close to where he and his family lived.  That's the reason HE PICKED St Louis.  That is why he has chosen to remain there and has rebuffed any talk of being traded by them.  It is not about: the team's potential, his teammates, the front office, the league, the division, the manager, the coaches; it's LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION !!

and the fact that St. L offered more years and more guaranteed money than anyone else. It's always about the money first, everything else second. (and I'm not knocking Sonny Gray for it one bit! He took the money and job security and went somewhere that had other ancillary benefits to him. Good for him.)

[EGFTShaw]

No, Sonny Gray leaving did NOT begin the downfall of the Twins.

I liked Sonny, I wish we would have kept him, but this hypothesis just isn't true.

[bunsen82]

4 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So where is the next 1b 2b 3b SS C in this system thats so strong. I'll give you the OF .may be covered. Maybe. No matter how highly ranked. That is all just speculation and hope. Until proven otherwise 

Short stop Culpepper,  2nd Keaschall,  3rd Lewis/Lee/Amick   1st  FA???/Clemens/Sabato/Mendez/Amick

Catcher -  Short term we were gifted with getting Pereda  Long run - Tait/Jimenez/Diaw

That is a lot of options and possibilities.  Plus should have a damn good draft this year to add to it.  I am still more concerned with Pitching even though we have a lot of high ceiling arms.   

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Does Joe Ryan wish that Nelson Cruz was still with the Twins?  😀

Hope not.

[SkyBlueWaters]

“ … pairing him again with López at the top of the rotation. That duo provides a one-two punch that rivals almost any staff in the American League. Ryan slides comfortably into a mid-rotation role, while Ober and Chris Paddack round things out. Suddenly, Minnesota has depth, hierarchy, and stability.”

Exactly. This gets to the heart of it. Even with Lopez’s injury this year, the rotation would have remained competitive.

[Schmoeman5]

11 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Short stop Culpepper,  2nd Keaschall,  3rd Lewis/Lee/Amick   1st  FA???/Clemens/Sabato/Mendez/Amick

Catcher -  Short term we were gifted with getting Pereda  Long run - Tait/Jimenez/Diaw

That is a lot of options and possibilities.  Plus should have a damn good draft this year to add to it.  I am still more concerned with Pitching even though we have a lot of high ceiling arms.   

Which of those 8 bullpen arms are set? Sands? Topa?  High ceiling arms. They're not ready now, but they'll be ready in 26. Falvey has said for the past 3 or 4 years that the bullpen isn't an issue 🤔 

[SkyBlueWaters]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m conflicted who to believe. One of his teammates for 2 years that said Sonny loved it here and wanted to stay. Or Twins fans on a message board. Hmm…

Exactly. Plus, when the Cardinals played the Twins last year Gray himself said he liked playing here. But he made it clear he was going to follow the money.

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Which of those 8 bullpen arms are set? Sands? Topa?  High ceiling arms. They're not ready now, but they'll be ready in 26. Falvey has said for the past 3 or 4 years that the bullpen isn't an issue 🤔 

You never asked about pitching in the previous post.   You asked about the future infield and I just answered your question.   

So changing the subject to bullpen you have 2 different methods.  1. pick up a cheap FA or 2 and gradually start running through players pitching prospects and DFA's and try to build it up like we did the last 1.  

The second is,  if the goal is to compete in 2026, and the goal was really to just get a high draft pick.  You sign 1 high end reliever to 1 year deal,  1 decent reliever to a 1-2 year deal,  and then use prospect capital to trade for another.  You could be looking at $20-$25 million in salary to add to the bullpen.  Something we have never done before and doesn't match up with the current picture but isn't much more than we were going to pay for the arms next year.  

[jorgenswest]

Joe Ryan is absolutely correct that letting Gray go was the beginning of the downward spiral. I am glad he spoke out. Gray was a big piece of the payroll cut following their most successful playoff run in 20 years. That payroll cut ignited the downward spiral.

The Twins made the absolutely correct decision to let him go. Decline was coming and he was very expensive. He still has two years left at 65 million or the Cardinals can buy out the last year and it will be one year at 40 million.

The Twins should have taken his salary slot and replaced it with someone else. The Twins did that with the Berrios slot. He was traded for Martin and SWR and the in the offseason they traded a prospect for Gray who had essentially the same salary. Brilliantly done. The Twins traded a year plus of Berrios and prospect Petty and received two years of Gray as well as Martin, Woods Richardson, Peguero and a comp pick (DeBarge). that was brilliantly done. they should have done the same with Gray and reinvested that salary in another player. The best route would be to acquire that player in trade and look for someone with about two years of service time. With the benefit of looking back I think they should have focused on a position player. Failing to do that was the beginning of the downward spiral.

 

 

 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Would having another veteran solid starting pitcher who is healthy help this team or any team every year?  Of course it would, but I think that saying that this was the catalyst for the downfall to come is a little exaggerated.  They traded a high draft pick pitcher for one good and one career best year of Sonny Gray.  He left and they essentially got their money (pick) back.  I make that trade 10 out of 10 times and so do most teams in the league.  At the time, the hope was that Ryan and Ober would step up and take his place.  Ryan did and Ober got hurt.  Pablo was healthy when Gray was here but got hurt this year.  As much as we hate it, those aren’t unusual expectations or outcomes for a baseball team.  BTW, we just traded a player making only slightly more money because we couldn’t afford to pay him. 

[S Bart]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

All of 2023 it was pretty well known that Sonny was going to move on, and it almost didn't matter the salary offer that could have come that would have kept him there. I wasn't angry at the time so much at Sonny specifically leaving (players can choose where they want to play come free agency) but to drop the payroll THAT much (in the range of what Gray could have earned in 2024) was what was awful at the time. If it had been reinvested in any meaningful way at that time, I still think 2024 and into 2025 would have had better results. Ugh

I don't believe that Rocco and Sonny had a very good connection. My gut reaction is that many pitchers don't connect with Rocco's "pull philosophy. "

[Knotholemike]

Signing Carlos Correa, which committed a huge portion of the payroll to a slightly above average shortstop who really wanted to move to third base was the beginning of the end for the Twins. Had they let him walk after the 2022 season they would have spent the money elsewhere, including potentially re-signing Sonny Gray.  They most likely would have made the playoffs without Correa anyway. The return from Correa was minimal at best, detrimental at worst.

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, S Bart said:

I don't believe that Rocco and Sonny had a very good connection. My gut reaction is that many pitchers don't connect with Rocco's "pull philosophy. "

Huh? What in the world does “pull philosophy” mean? Sonny Gray pitched more innings in 2023 than he has in the last 11 seasons. He was second in Cy Young. In the two seasons prior to being with the Twins he had an ERA of 4.05. In his two seasons since leaving the Twins he had an ERA of 4.15. In his two seasons with the Twins he had an ERA of 2.90. Those Twins seasons led to a very nice contract. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So where is the next 1b 2b 3b SS C in this system thats so strong. I'll give you the OF .may be covered. Maybe. No matter how highly ranked. That is all just speculation and hope. Until proven otherwise 

We've had a strong farm system for the past 10 years. Look at where that's gotten us... 

[S Bart]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Huh? What in the world does “pull philosophy” mean? Sonny Gray pitched more innings in 2023 than he has in the last 11 seasons. He was second in Cy Young. In the two seasons prior to being with the Twins he had an ERA of 4.05. In his two seasons since leaving the Twins he had an ERA of 4.15. In his two seasons with the Twins he had an ERA of 2.90. Those Twins seasons led to a very nice contract. 

PULLING STARTERS FOR THE BULLPEN WHEN THE THE INDIVIDUAL IS PITCHING WELL. I agree with Ryan. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, S Bart said:

PULLING STARTERS FOR THE BULLPEN WHEN THE THE INDIVIDUAL IS PITCHING WELL. I agree with Ryan. 

Multiple pitchers were pulled last week after five innings of no hit ball by other teams.  This isn't a Rocco thing.

Also, as pointed out, Gray pitched more here, and better here, than anywhere else he's pitched ...

[jorgenswest]

47 minutes ago, S Bart said:

PULLING STARTERS FOR THE BULLPEN WHEN THE THE INDIVIDUAL IS PITCHING WELL. I agree with Ryan. 

I don’t disagree with Ryan. The decisions following the 2023 season initiated the downturn. 

I find it hard to argue that he was pulled early when between 2016 and 2025 the season that he pitched the most innings and faced the most batters was the one where Rocco Baldelli was his manager.

[Markdumont25]

I think harping on Gray specifically is a hindsight 20/20 type of argument. I think it made sense to let him go (also made sense to keep him, I think either path weas defensible), but I absolutely believe in the cascading effects of tightening the payroll and not at least trying to replace him. Besides the obvious effect on the overall talent we were able to put on the field, it sent a message to both the fans and the team that we weren't serious about winning and I absolutely believe all of that cascaded into the situation we're in now.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Markdumont25 said:

I think harping on Gray specifically is a hindsight 20/20 type of argument. I think it made sense to let him go (also made sense to keep him, I think either path weas defensible), but I absolutely believe in the cascading effects of tightening the payroll and not at least trying to replace him. Besides the obvious effect on the overall talent we were able to put on the field, it sent a message to both the fans and the team that we weren't serious about winning and I absolutely believe all of that cascaded into the situation we're in now.

Agreed. Many fans seen to further these are people. Mentors matter. Actions from management matter. 

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Multiple pitchers were pulled last week after five innings of no hit ball by other teams.  This isn't a Rocco thing.

Also, as pointed out, Gray pitched more here, and better here, than anywhere else he's pitched ...

And what were the circumstances? Guys or teams gearing up for the playoffs? Younger guys who they want to limit their innings.  Don't just throw out some blanket statement to defend your beloved Rocco

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Multiple pitchers were pulled last week after five innings of no hit ball by other teams.  

"Multiple pitchers"? Pulled with 5 no-hit innings? Last week?

Names, or I call bull****.

In fact, I preemptively call bull****.

 

 

[BillyBallLives]

Seems to me, Ryan is sending a message for the Twins to trade him.  Once players stop believing the organization is serious about winning, they start checking out mentally.

Ryan has been very shaky since the trade deadline. All-Star to Fallen Star.

[BillyBallLives]

Seems to me, Ryan is sending a message for the Twins to trade him.  Once players stop believing the organization is serious about winning, they start checking out mentally.

Ryan has been very shaky since the trade deadline. All-Start to Fallen Star.

[USAFChief]

Concur with the thought Ryan is letting everyone know he'd be OK with pitching elsewhere. 

[Mike Sixel]

Cade Horton..... Also, apparently I was misinformed as the other guy was hurt after five. So only one ...

[DocBauer]

(HEAVY SIGH)!

It's still AMAZING to me how many comments come from people who just refuse to actually read or listen to REAL data and further comments made post Gray leaving the Twins.

Gray is a competitor by nature. I recall a comment last season with the Cardinals where he said again he wants a chance to go as long as he can. He's NEVER been an innings eater. He's been used almost EXACTLY as he was as a Twin. He hasn't been quite as good with St Loius since he left.

But somehow, this mantra keeps going on, and on, about he wasn't used to his full capacity. The numbers are easy to look up if doubters would take even a moment to look at them instead of just spitting out vitriol. 

I appreciate Ryan's comments as he's a heart on the wrist, emotional competitor. And I'm sure his competitive nature is very frustrated right now. But last I knew, Lopez was the leader of the staff now. Last I knew, the things that Gray brought to the table like; all pitchers watching the pen for the day's starter were still intact.

When Gray was let go, initially, the Twins had Lopez re-signed, and Ryan and Ober right behind them, with some solid young arms behind them. Right or wrong, they couldn't afford having a $30M SS and TWO $20M SP, one of which was approaching his mid 30's on a deal.

Ask the Brewers about letting a quality SP go. In their situation they traded 1yr of Burns for some prospects because they couldn't afford to keep him.

Since they traded Burns they've won 93 games in 2024 and 89 games so far in 2025.

No, the problem HASN'T been losing out on an "unaffordable" deal for Gray. 

The problem has been an inconsistent offense in 2024, and a putrid offense in 2025, despite a coaching change. A lack of defense sure hasn't helped.

But unlike ********, that rolls downhill, the biggest issue with the Twins rolls UPHILL. How better is a manger if he has better players? Meanwhile, the FO and scouting department are drafting more athletic players with a mix of speed, defense, and power mixed but will take time to develop and actually reach the ML level. Meanwhile, the Ownership has borrowed so much $ towards the franchise due to external debt that they CUT payroll just as the team is becoming an actual contender, ready to add a couple complimtary pieces to advance forward while waiting for the new direction of prospect talent, that the FO has their legs cut out under them.

No wonder Levine left, though he won't state it publicly. 

No, the downfall of the Twins has nothing to do with Gray being gone, despite Ryan losing a mentor.

And honestly, while he might not be a great manager, Rocco and his staff are not the DIRECT ISSUE. (He and his staff could be better for sure). But where are his players? What exactly is the PLAN for the team?

And while I have issues with certain decisions made, and still being made, by the FO here and there... and what is their PLAN for the future...it still comes back to ownership and how badly they've mishandled the entire Twins organization. 

I'm NOT dismissing Rocco and his staff. And I'm  NOT dismissing perceived errors by the FO, but how better might have 2024 and this season been with a league average payroll instead of worrying about the ownership debt? I'm not saying a new FO and new manager might not be in the cards. But temper your roll a bit fans.

The current demise of the Twins is not for effort, directly, from Rocco and his staff, or necessarily from the current FO directly, 

But when the genie's lantern has been rubbed and you get your wish and build your team with promises...and then those promises are suddenly swept away...what are you to do?

No. Again, it wasn't losing Gray that brought about this sudden demise. It was ownership mismanagement spouting off rhetoric to cover their own ass.

Sometimes ******** actually DOES roll uphill!

Censor me TD watchdogs if you want to. But I'm speaking the bare truth.

[S Bart]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Multiple pitchers were pulled last week after five innings of no hit ball by other teams.  This isn't a Rocco thing.

Also, as pointed out, Gray pitched more here, and better here, than anywhere else he's pitched ...

Totally disagree. Rocco does way more than other managers. I have been to probably 30 games this year in person and have seen many teams. 

[S Bart]

3 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

(HEAVY SIGH)!

It's still AMAZING to me how many comments come from people who just refuse to actually read or listen to REAL data and further comments made post Gray leaving the Twins.

Gray is a competitor by nature. I recall a comment last season with the Cardinals where he said again he wants a chance to go as long as he can. He's NEVER been an innings eater. He's been used almost EXACTLY as he was as a Twin. He hasn't been quite as good with St Loius since he left.

But somehow, this mantra keeps going on, and on, about he wasn't used to his full capacity. The numbers are easy to look up if doubters would take even a moment to look at them instead of just spitting out vitriol. 

I appreciate Ryan's comments as he's a heart on the wrist, emotional competitor. And I'm sure his competitive nature is very frustrated right now. But last I knew, Lopez was the leader of the staff now. Last I knew, the things that Gray brought to the table like; all pitchers watching the pen for the day's starter were still intact.

When Gray was let go, initially, the Twins had Lopez re-signed, and Ryan and Ober right behind them, with some solid young arms behind them. Right or wrong, they couldn't afford having a $30M SS and TWO $20M SP, one of which was approaching his mid 30's on a deal.

Ask the Brewers about letting a quality SP go. In their situation they traded 1yr of Burns for some prospects because they couldn't afford to keep him.

Since they traded Burns they've won 93 games in 2024 and 89 games so far in 2025.

No, the problem HASN'T been losing out on an "unaffordable" deal for Gray. 

The problem has been an inconsistent offense in 2024, and a putrid offense in 2025, despite a coaching change. A lack of defense sure hasn't helped.

But unlike ********, that rolls downhill, the biggest issue with the Twins rolls UPHILL. How better is a manger if he has better players? Meanwhile, the FO and scouting department are drafting more athletic players with a mix of speed, defense, and power mixed but will take time to develop and actually reach the ML level. Meanwhile, the Ownership has borrowed so much $ towards the franchise due to external debt that they CUT payroll just as the team is becoming an actual contender, ready to add a couple complimtary pieces to advance forward while waiting for the new direction of prospect talent, that the FO has their legs cut out under them.

No wonder Levine left, though he won't state it publicly. 

No, the downfall of the Twins has nothing to do with Gray being gone, despite Ryan losing a mentor.

And honestly, while he might not be a great manager, Rocco and his staff are not the DIRECT ISSUE. (He and his staff could be better for sure). But where are his players? What exactly is the PLAN for the team?

And while I have issues with certain decisions made, and still being made, by the FO here and there... and what is their PLAN for the future...it still comes back to ownership and how badly they've mishandled the entire Twins organization. 

I'm NOT dismissing Rocco and his staff. And I'm  NOT dismissing perceived errors by the FO, but how better might have 2024 and this season been with a league average payroll instead of worrying about the ownership debt? I'm not saying a new FO and new manager might not be in the cards. But temper your roll a bit fans.

The current demise of the Twins is not for effort, directly, from Rocco and his staff, or necessarily from the current FO directly, 

But when the genie's lantern has been rubbed and you get your wish and build your team with promises...and then those promises are suddenly swept away...what are you to do?

No. Again, it wasn't losing Gray that brought about this sudden demise. It was ownership mismanagement spouting off rhetoric to cover their own ass.

Sometimes ******** actually DOES roll uphill!

Censor me TD watchdogs if you want to. But I'm speaking the bare truth.

It wasn't losing Gray but his presence would have been more valuable than spending money on the "affordable Correa". I agree that the owners/ FO are the centerpiece but the management sets the tone. Rocco has a year at the.most.

[Launch Angle]

7 hours ago, old nurse said:

The Twins gave him a qualifying offer. If Gray wanted to be here, he would have been. 

What a dumb take. 18/mil for one year vs 25 per year for 3. Nobody in their right mind would agree to that even if they really wanted to stay.

[Nshore]

Gray's departure is water under the bridge now - but it gives them a good template for the future.  If, and it's a big IF, the Twins hang on to Lopez and Ryan and sign a quality free agent starting pitcher, all of a sudden they look pretty good there with Ober and other candidates rounding out the rotation.  I get lost in the doom and gloom sometimes - but really they aren't that far away from a strong rotation.

Also - if the Twins fail to retain Lopez and Ryan, they probably won't be able to be taken seriously for 3 or 4 years minimum.