Roster Implications and 40-man Timelines for Every New Twin

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of David Malamut (photos of Hendry Mendez and Ryan Gallagher)

It’s been a few days since Minnesota’s whirlwind trade deadline. How is everyone doing? Frankly, the phrenetic pace at which everything occurred made it difficult for me to fully understand the nature of what just happened. Things certainly changed; but just how much? And how do we make sense of it beyond the obvious financial incentives?

Today, we’ll observe the moves through the lens of the major league roster. I’ll be honest: this will be a granular article, though I’ll add analysis where I see fit. At hand is a discussion on options, 40-man roster considerations, arbitration, prospect timelines, and all that joyous nerd stuff that you, the advanced baseball fan, care so much about. Let’s start with the players who arrived as big leaguers.

Already on the 40-man:
James Outman joins the team with a year of service time already under his belt; he’ll potentially be arb-eligible post-2026, and is in his final option year. That final point is a critical one: acquiring Outman was a head-scratcher—the last thing the team needed was a left-handed outfielder—and the Twins don’t have much time to potentially fix him. He can’t go back to the minors in 2026 without being DFA’d, thus exposing him to waivers. If he doesn’t turn it around in St. Paul soon, his time in Minnesota will be curt.

Taj Bradley becomes a Twin with a year of service time as well, making him potentially arb-eligible post-2026. He has an option year remaining. Minnesota has, well, options with him: the rest of 2025 could be spent entirely on adjustments and finding familiarity in the organization with no concern for roster shenanigans. The best news? If everything goes well, and Bradley hits his stride in 2026, the Twins will have three more years with the righty, as he enters arbitration prior to the 2027 season. 

Mick Abel still has not exhausted rookie eligibility, meaning the team has basically forever (six years) to mold the 23-year-old to their vision. He has two more option years after this season. 

I believe Alan Roden has passed the rookie threshold through time spent on the active roster, though he’s short on at-bats. It’s a moot point given that the Twins sent him straight to the big-league club, anyways, and look to give him consistent playing time. Because that clock has started, he won’t potentially be arbitration eligible until after the 2027 season, and he has two option years left after 2025. The team has the time and resources to be patient with the 25-year-old outfielder. 

Players eligible for the Rule-5 draft in 2025: 
Now we’ll begin to cover the players who will need to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid possible selection in the Rule-5 draft this year. Here’s a quick primer on the subject for those unaware of details about the draft.

The three players eligible following this season are Hendry Mendez, Matt Mikulski, and Kendry Rojas. 

With all due respect to the athletic abilities of Mikulski, his inclusion in the Carlos Correa deal was pure eyewash; he’s 26 and hasn’t made it out of A+ ball since being drafted in 2021. I doubt he remains in the organization following this season. 

Mendez is an interesting case. He’s displayed legitimate hitting ability throughout his time in the minors yet hasn’t been healthy enough to push himself into a higher echelon of prospect conversation. Again, the Twins have enough major-league outfielders to go around—and there’s three (four if you count Luke Keaschall; maybe a fifth depending on how much you like Kala’i Rosario) outfield prospects at AA and higher who will demand priority over the 21-year-old. I don’t think the organization will add him to the 40-man roster, but it’s also unclear at the moment whether another team will pick him. He’s a tweener. Consider this a José Miranda situation.

Finally, Rojas will certainly be added to the 40-man roster. No more analysis is needed. 

2026 
Sam Armstrong was the lesser-heralded pitching prospect arriving in the Willi Castro deal. His numbers are simply fine, but he deserves a spot in the AA rotation, and the Twins won’t have to decide whether to protect him until next year. By then, the answer should be apparent. 

2027
We have a quartet of players for this year: Enrique Jimenez, Eduardo Tait, Ryan Gallagher, and Garrett Horn. We can bunch them as “international youngsters” and “college arms.”

Let’s start with the pitchers. As 22-year-olds, their worthiness to be added to the 40-man roster should be self-evident by 2027. In fact, one would expect their major-league impact to arrive a year earlier, if either is, indeed, a legitimate prospect. Gallagher has the leg up in performance and level (he’s at AA), though Horn isn’t far behind, as he was sent to A+ ball, which would be his first taste of play at the level. 

I’m not going to insult your intelligence by predicting whether actual teenagers will still be notable catching prospects in two years. The only conclusion here is that the Twins can place the pair in the slow cooker for some time before they need to worry about pushing their development to the big leagues.  

2029
Yes, this baby goes all the way out to 2029, which will happen when you trade for someone born the year Obama was first elected president. Geremy Villoria is so far away from 40-man consideration that this paragraph’s sole purpose is to be a reminder to set an alarm four years in the future. 

Broadly speaking, it seems that the Twins either focused on immediate talent or guys who won’t affect the roster until years down the road. Most executives will say they look for a blend of talent age, and Minnesota was no different here. The optimistic view is that the initial wave—Bradley, Abel, and Roden—will stabilize the club, while players like Tait and Gallagher serve as reinforcements. Hovering above all of this is the seemingly imminent arrival of Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, and Emmanuel Rodriguez, if he could ever stay healthy. At the very least, they appeared to have avoided an overwhelming wave of needed 40-man additions in any one year and instead should shuffle in talent through the seasons. Keep an eye out for 2027, especially.

Though 40-man implications aren't the sole driver of determining when a player becomes a big leaguer, it's a good predictor of one's timeline. Teams generally make prospects potential players when they have to, unless someone suddenly Juan Sotos their way through the minors. Consider these years to be approximations of when these players should become Twins. 

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[I Never Bet On Sports]

 

Really appreciate this article. Would like to know who from the rest of the Twins organization will need to be added to the 40 man this offseason or be rule 5 eligible as well.

By my calculations the Twins have 41 players on the 40 man (including injured Pablo Lopez) which includes the three mentioned above (Outman, Abel, Bradley). Vazquez will not be back so that puts the Twins at 40. If they add Rojas that's 41, 42 if also add Mendez. How many and who from the current organization need to be added this offseason or be eligible for the Rule 5?

Assume Topa, Urenas, and Ramirez will not be back as well opens up 3 spots. I just can't find a list of who becomes eligible this offseason.

[Doctor Wu]

23 minutes ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

Vazquez will not be back so that puts the Twins at 40.

Most everyone assumes that Vasquez won't be back, and he is in the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken. But if he leaves, what do we do for a backup catcher? Even with this flurry of recent trades and waiver pickups, I don't really see anyone ready to step up and replace Vasquez. 

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Most everyone assumes that Vasquez won't be back, and he is in the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken. But if he leaves, what do we do for a backup catcher? Even with this flurry of recent trades and waiver pickups, I don't really see anyone ready to step up and replace Vasquez. 

@Matt Braun Great write up. 

Vazquez turns 35 in about two weeks, he has a negative WAR and a OPS+ of 38 and the Twins don't have anybody to replace that? 

The Twins paid 30 million for -.4, -.2, -.1 of WAR the last three years, the idea that Vazquez is the Twins best option for platoon catcher is more proof of how terrible this FO has been. Vazquez shouldn't be a Twins next year and probably shouldn't even be in the majors unless he is coaching.

 

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Most everyone assumes that Vasquez won't be back, and he is in the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken. But if he leaves, what do we do for a backup catcher? Even with this flurry of recent trades and waiver pickups, I don't really see anyone ready to step up and replace Vasquez. 

Whether or not it's Vazquez, there will be 2 catchers on the 26 man and almost certainly 3 on the 40 man.

The roster spot is spoken for.

 

[Doctor Wu]

10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Vazquez turns 35 in about two weeks, he has a negative WAR and a OPS+ of 38 and the Twins don't have anybody to replace that? 

Well, that's my question. If they have someone to replace Vasquez, who will it be?

[Rigby]

According to Fangraphs the following are Rule 5 eligible players in 2025 :

Those that will merit a bit of consideration. (Some quite a bit less than others admittedly).

Andrew Morris, Gabriel Gonzalez, Cory Lewis, Ricardo Oliver, Aaron Sabato, Tanner Schobel, Noah Cardenas, Christian MacLeod, Kala'i Rosario, CJ Culpepper, Conner Prielipp, Rubel Cespedes, Kyler Fedko, John Klein, Jose Olivares and Nate Baez along with the aforementioned Mendez and Rojas.

 

 

[USAFChief]

@Matt Braun Are we sure Outman can be arb eligible this winter?

He entered 2025 with 1.095 years of service time and I believe has only added 37 days so far this season.

[Patzky]

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

@Matt Braun Great write up. 

Vazquez turns 35 in about two weeks, he has a negative WAR and a OPS+ of 38 and the Twins don't have anybody to replace that? 

The Twins paid 30 million for -.4, -.2, -.1 of WAR the last three years, the idea that Vazquez is the Twins best option for platoon catcher is more proof of how terrible this FO has been. Vazquez shouldn't be a Twins next year and probably shouldn't even be in the majors unless he is coaching.

 

Vazquez would be a sneaky good catchers coach. If he's ready to hang em up.

[In My La Z boy]

Looks like those 2 kids in Wichita Jenkins & Culpepper might break through by next year. 2 #1 draft picks tearing up AA. Add them to your 40 man equation, and Rosario down there is also a star in the making. By next spring we might just have the best crop of kids in the system as any team out there. I think Buxton's gonna like this team next year. Great looking crop of starters, and a lot of talented youth.

Keaschall looks like a star along with Wallner, Lewis & Jeffers. Love Lee but Culpepper is coming fast, and can Clemons really be this clutch and possibly this useful to us? What a gift that would be! I am old but there is hope. It was good to win last night!

[Doctor Wu]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

Vazquez would be a sneaky good catchers coach. If he's ready to hang em up.

Indeed he would. I understood the concern about his poor production, but he's stayed healthy all season and seems to have the respect of the pitching staff. I think we could do a lot worse if we looked for a replacement. Hopefully, we DO find a young and more productive backup, but right now I can't see who that will be. 

[SaberNerd]

I'm not sure that Mendez would get taken in the Rule 5 draft, but I'd be way more surprised if he isn't added to the 40 man to prevent that option.  No way you trade Bader for him and then risk losing him for nothing.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great article Matt. Thank you for this really good information.

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, Doctor Wu said:

Indeed he would. I understood the concern about his poor production, but he's stayed healthy all season and seems to have the respect of the pitching staff. I think we could do a lot worse if we looked for a replacement. Hopefully, we DO find a young and more productive backup, but right now I can't see who that will be. 

Having 'baseball smart' guys like Vazquez and Pablo have value. I'd be ok with them both hanging around as they'll have us.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 minutes ago, Rigby said:

According to Fangraphs the following are Rule 5 eligible players in 2025 :

Those that will merit a bit of consideration. (Some quite a bit less than others admittedly).

Andrew Morris, Gabriel Gonzalez, Cory Lewis, Ricardo Oliver, Aaron Sabato, Tanner Schobel, Noah Cardenas, Christian MacLeod, Kala'i Rosario, CJ Culpepper, Conner Prielipp, Rubel Cespedes, Kyler Fedko, John Klein, Jose Olivares and Nate Baez along with the aforementioned Mendez and Rojas.

 

 

The Twins need to get rid of any older deadwood (Tonkin) and add Morris, Gonzolez, Prielipp and maybe Oliver and Cardenas. Sorry to leave out Cory Lewis and Rosario. 

[Doctor Wu]

2 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins need to get rid of any older deadwood (Tonkin) and add Morris, Gonzolez, Prielipp and maybe Oliver and Cardenas. Sorry to leave out Cory Lewis and Rosario. 

I'd love to see more youth next season, especially like prospects such as Prielipp and Gonzalez. Lewis seems to have lost his mojo this season, but with that knuckleball, maybe he can still show us something. But time is running out for him. 

[Rigby]

6 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins need to get rid of any older deadwood (Tonkin) and add Morris, Gonzolez, Prielipp and maybe Oliver and Cardenas. Sorry to leave out Cory Lewis and Rosario. 

There will be quite a bit of flux on the 40 after the season. Many that should definitely be removed - Tonkin, Urena, Davis, Ramirez, Misiewicz, Gasper, Vasquez (FA), Fitzgerald. Others that have a distinct possibility of being removed - Perada, Outman, Keirsey, Funderburk, Topa, Julien, Hatch, Kriske and Miranda,

[thelanges5]

Jhonny Pereda was signed recently and is on the 40-man (AAA) Don’t know much about him but he’s got better offensive numbers than Vazqy. 
 

Here are the projected FA catchers 

Austin Barnes (36)
Victor Caratini (32)
Elias Diaz (35) – $7MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Austin Hedges (33)
Danny Jansen (31) – $12MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Luke Maile (35)
Martin Maldonado (39)
James McCann (36)
Tom Murphy (35) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Tomas Nido (32)
Salvador Perez (36) – $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
J.T. Realmuto (35)
Gary Sanchez (33)
Jacob Stallings (36)
Christian Vazquez (35)

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, thelanges5 said:

Jhonny Pereda was signed recently and is on the 40-man (AAA) Don’t know much about him but he’s got better offensive numbers than Vazqy. 
 

Here are the projected FA catchers 

Austin Barnes (36)
Victor Caratini (32)
Elias Diaz (35) – $7MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Austin Hedges (33)
Danny Jansen (31) – $12MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Luke Maile (35)
Martin Maldonado (39)
James McCann (36)
Tom Murphy (35) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Tomas Nido (32)
Salvador Perez (36) – $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
J.T. Realmuto (35)
Gary Sanchez (33)
Jacob Stallings (36)
Christian Vazquez (35)

Not much on Pereda this year, Vazky like .200 BA. Curiously he has pitched three innings this season.

[TwinsDr2021]

34 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Well, that's my question. If they have someone to replace Vasquez, who will it be?

Anybody, Literally anybody!

 Vazquez has the sixth most stolen bases attempts against (55)in the league and his caught stealing is slightly above average (24%)  

He has started 56 games a Jeffers 57, while Jeffers has a lower caught stealing they only attempted 38 against him. 

 

[mnfireman]

8 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Jhonny Pereda was signed recently and is on the 40-man (AAA) Don’t know much about him but he’s got better offensive numbers than Vazqy. 
 

Here are the projected FA catchers 

Austin Barnes (36)
Victor Caratini (32)
Elias Diaz (35) – $7MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Austin Hedges (33)
Danny Jansen (31) – $12MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Luke Maile (35)
Martin Maldonado (39)
James McCann (36)
Tom Murphy (35) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Tomas Nido (32)
Salvador Perez (36) – $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
J.T. Realmuto (35)
Gary Sanchez (33)
Jacob Stallings (36)
Christian Vazquez (35)

Not a very inspiring group is it?

[Doctor Wu]

16 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Not a very inspiring group is it?

Pereda looks like he COULD be a help next season. You are right; he seems to have more offense than Vasquez. Besides him, most of the promising catchers in our system are still a year or two or three years away. I can't see the Twins spending much or any money on a free agent catcher next season. 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Not a very inspiring group is it?

Which is why a number of people were pushing hard for the Twins to add someone like Rushing, Ford, Quero, or another MLB ready catcher. As it is, Noah Cardenas or Vazquez returning are the options.

[bunsen82]

43 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Well, that's my question. If they have someone to replace Vasquez, who will it be?

If our true long term goal is to develop these young pitchers, resign Vasquez for 1 year deal 3-4 million. Honestly we get more long term benefit from that than signing any other catcher. 

[Matt Braun]

42 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

@Matt Braun Are we sure Outman can be arb eligible this winter?

He entered 2025 with 1.095 years of service time and I believe has only added 37 days so far this season.

Definitely not this winter and likely not even post-2026, though that's what Fangraphs claims is a possibility. I tried to stick with their information even if the arb timelines weren't realistic. 

[mnfireman]

50 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

@Matt Braun Are we sure Outman can be arb eligible this winter?

He entered 2025 with 1.095 years of service time and I believe has only added 37 days so far this season.

Baseball-Reference shows arb eligible 2027, FA 2030, not sure how this year's
(lack of) MLB playing time affects that. 

[mnfireman]

26 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Which is why a number of people were pushing hard for the Twins to add someone like Rushing, Ford, Quero, or another MLB ready catcher. As it is, Noah Cardenas or Vazquez returning are the options.

We can push for who we want or think should be added, but real world value gets in the way. Seeing how none of those three were moved at the deadline, the Twins weren't the only team that wouldn't meet the asking price.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

We can push for who we want or think should be added, but real world value gets in the way. Seeing how none of those three were moved at the deadline, the Twins weren't the only team that wouldn't meet the asking price.

Sometimes you need to meet the price if you want a guy.

[USAFChief]

41 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Baseball-Reference shows arb eligible 2027, FA 2030, not sure how this year's
(lack of) MLB playing time affects that. 

Because arb eligibility and free agency are based on MLB service time?

 

[USAFChief]

56 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

Definitely not this winter and likely not even post-2026, though that's what Fangraphs claims is a possibility. I tried to stick with their information even if the arb timelines weren't realistic. 

Were he to spend all of 2026 on tbe 26 man, I'd imagine he could be a super-2 maybe that winter?

But I just don't think arb eligibility or free agency are much of a concern for James Outman.  He's 28 and in AAA. 

For that matter, who even knows what the pertinent rules will be under a new CBA in ?2027?  .... ?2028?  ?however long the lockout lasts?