BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[Maybe Next Year]

6 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

When the owners won't open the purse strings to add, what do you want to FO to do?  They won a playoff series and dropped the payroll $25M.  

Saying they got nothing of value to help us now or in the future is being extremely negative and reactionary unless you have a crystal ball.

To hell with the purse strings argument. Last year three AL teams with lower payrolls made the playoffs. The problem isn’t with money, it is with Baldelli and his damn analytics. The absolute worst manager in all of baseball. Name one, just one, rookie who he has developed into a decent player in his 8 years. He overthinks everything. He has ZERO baseball sense. He doesn’t do anything to give confidence to his young players. It’s not the money, it’s the piece of junk we have as a manager. I can’t wait to see how these new prospects pan out. Guarantee they will never be good under Baldelli. 

[GNess]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Too high you think?

LOL - But no

[Irishman]

This trade is absolutely bad.

Jim Pohlad and FO are freaking joke.    Jim is freaking hilarious.   He obviously doesn’t care about winning or losing.  I’m very disappointed.   

[Elliot]

It seems that Painter was never going to be part of any deal. Crawford was probably gettable, but it may be that a C and starting P were more attractive to the Twins than another OF at this point. 

Overall, Phillie’s #3 and #6 prospects is a pretty good return for a relief pitcher, even one as good as Duran has been. 
If it was Ryan heading out you might get one more out of their top 10 along with someone in the teens or twenties, but that is the higher value of a #1 or #2 starter  

For me, system rankings is the only realistic way I can evaluate minor leaguers from other teams, or even the Twins for that matter. I don’t see them play, and even if I did I doubt that my assessment would be more reliable than that of the Twin’s scouts. 

For Nelson Cruz and a minor league pitcher the Twins received the #10 and 17 prospects from a very strong TB minor league system. The #10 was Joe Ryan  

For Berrios they received Toronto’s #2 (Martin) and 4 (SWR). A very good return that doesn’t look so great now. 

Give it 3 or 4 years from now and we will have a better idea of what they received in this deal. It will also be interesting to see how Duran has aged and what his contract status is. 

[Woof Bronzer]

 

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

It's a title earned in human tournaments, so it's not going to go away. You call it slop - they used to say the same thing about accountants who used Excel rather than a 9-key keypads that produced paper tape output.  Time marches on - and productivity improves.

It's called slop because that's what it is -- a bunch of unvetted data slopped together from a variety of random, unvetted sources that may or, more likely not, be accurate, because AI is incapable of understanding the concept of "truth".  You cannot, and will never be able to, teach a computer the concept of truth. AI just gives you the most common data it finds.  (This is why Elon's bot often lapses into white supremacy or antisemitism; it's trained on X.  This doesn't make the conspiracy theories it slops out true though.)   

Good journalism requires lived experience, close study, practice, human empathy, intellectual curiosity...AI offers none of that.  Just slop.  

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Seriously? Are you seriously being ignorant.  We used almost the entire 2021 draft to supplement the MLB team. You are ignoring the Arreaz deal, the Gray deal, even signing Correa, even though that feels like ages ago and seems to be causing us to make some of these decisions pre-maturely.  The anti Falvey crowd is getting louder and louder and show the frustration is much more than just a return on a trade of Duran. 

Are you seriously being ignorant? These deals & others fell into their laps; all they had to do was basically to say yes. He never initiated any of these deals.  Even this Duran trade they did not initiate, they just sat back & waited for the best deal for an elite impact closer in demand & if they couldn't get a deal that significantly helps the team, then you say no. But he said yes!

And yes this Anti-Falvey has been there for a long time. Many ignore his blunders & many hope that he could change (me included), some, like Falvey, hope everything miraculously will work out but it hasn't. We are reaping what he has sown. To be clear, I do not dislike Falvey; I was one Falvine's biggest supporter. But I don't agree with how Falvey is running this ship.

 

[Irishman]

31 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

When the owners won't open the purse strings to add, what do you want to FO to do?  They won a playoff series and dropped the payroll $25M.  

Saying they got nothing of value to help us now or in the future is being extremely negative and reactionary unless you have a crystal ball.

We have power to hurt Pohlad's purse.  How?  Just do not come to Target Field.  He will lose revenues from tickets, foods, merchandise and parking.    

[T.O.]

12 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

    Name one, just one, rookie who he has developed into a decent player in his 8 years. He overthinks everything. He has ZERO baseball sense. He doesn’t do anything to give confidence to his young players. It’s not the money, it’s the piece of junk we have as a manager. I can’t wait to see how these new prospects pan out. Guarantee they will never be good under Baldelli. 

I can't think of anyone. Most fans are not happy with Wallner, and Larnach, and Lee (oh, my!). 

For weeks so many have been calling for Sell, Sell, Sell. I wonder what they thought was going to happen.

[Parfigliano]

18 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

To hell with the purse strings argument. Last year three AL teams with lower payrolls made the playoffs. The problem isn’t with money, it is with Baldelli and his damn analytics. The absolute worst manager in all of baseball. Name one, just one, rookie who he has developed into a decent player in his 8 years. He overthinks everything. He has ZERO baseball sense. He doesn’t do anything to give confidence to his young players. It’s not the money, it’s the piece of junk we have as a manager. I can’t wait to see how these new prospects pan out. Guarantee they will never be good under Baldelli. 

Baldelli better not be here then

[SD happy]

Quick fyi. Paddock pitched six innings giving up three hits, one run and no walks in a Tiger win.

[Kevin Sheehan]

I haven't read all the comments. In my opinion, Duran is the keeper. Griff hasn't proved he's a closer. It seems to me this is a capitulation. I need help justifying this in my head. You guys are far smarter than me. Struggling to understand this

[NYCTK]

58 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Why would I care about your human vs human accomplishments? You said yourself AI is way better. That’s pretty sweet. I like the computer more. 

Yeah. Why anyone would care about human chess players. They can't beat a computer. Clearly that means we should value the computer. 

Screw writers. Screw coders. Screw artists. Screw paralegals. 

Long live the AI revolution and the 1% that no longer have to pay those *******s. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

6 minutes ago, Kevin Sheehan said:

I haven't read all the comments. In my opinion, Duran is the keeper. Griff hasn't proved he's a closer. It seems to me this is a capitulation. I need help justifying this in my head. You guys are far smarter than me. Struggling to understand this

I think what you said about Duran is the consensus in this thread, with much disappointment (and worse) to go along with it. However, it is not universal.

The arguing is about the return from Philly, and doing the deal a day early, and not improving the offense in the near term. Not too much being said about Jax one way or the other. 

Also some arguing about chess—let me promote our chess thread here 🙂 https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/54299-chess-world-championship/#comment-1256384

 

[h2oface]

Falvey is a wimp. He gives up the farm for a mediocre Mahle, who was even injured (recovering) when acquired, but blinks with a day to go with the reliever every contender wants. 2 players. Hope and dreams for the MLB stud. Not a rental, but 2 1/3 years of control on top of it. What a joke. What a waste. Keeping his can’t hit can’t field can’t run bases core. 
 

I guess it’s the players fault. From last August 17 to now, they really have sucked, minus one 13 game streak. They are tanking again now. But no Duran doesn’t make the team better. Neither do the prospects now, and if the success odds pan out…. they never will. 

[Elliot]

Just read an article at MLB.com that listed all of the prospects that have changed hands in trades since June 15th, starting with the Rafael Devers trade. Out of a total of roughly 35 prospects named, only 2 are MLB top 100 prospects. Guess who they are. 
Acquired from the Phillies in the Jhoan Duran trade:
Eduardo Tait, C, Twins (MIN No. 4/MLB No. 56)
Mick Abel, RHP, Twins (MIN No. 6/MLB No. 92)

I know that some big chips are yet to fall, and more top 100’s will probably be on the move, but as of now it seems as if the Twins FO did just fine in their Duran trade.  Whether or not they should have traded him is certainly open for debate, but the return certainly does not look as weak as some are insisting. 

[Vanimal46]

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Yeah. Why anyone would care about human chess players. They can't beat a computer. Clearly that means we should value the computer. 

Screw writers. Screw coders. Screw artists. Screw paralegals. 

Long live the AI revolution and the 1% that no longer have to pay those *******s. 

Apologies in advance to the mods for being off topic, but we’re 13 pages into 1 trade of many that will happen in the next day. 

You’re touching the surface of roles that are affected. It’s literally going to be multiple millions of jobs today that will be extinct in less than a decade. Every single industry and role will be impacted. The only things I see as futures for young children are manual labor/service based jobs and getting extremely lucky in STEM. 

[Kevin Sheehan]

JD is THE CLOSER. Jax is not. Now they gotta trade Griff and maybe insert LV into closer role. Anyway, Paddack said it all today. Twins on field attitude is below zero. Gotta have your head right to pitch, hit, field and run the bases. Time to start over. As I've written before; the fish ALWAYS stinks from the head. It's time to do what's right. Break it down, start over and bring up the kids

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

He is throwing significantly less pitches over 100 each year yes the e velocity is coming down. He still creates a lot of weak contact, if it begins to become louder contact you run into problems.  
 

in the low minors you have Dasan Hill and Soto and Bohorquez as high end young pitching prospects. As of now the mid round and late round pitching prospects have not panned out as well as say 2022. This current draft class should fix that issue with quality and quantity. 
 

As to Abel, there is clay to work with for a good starting pitcher.  Worst case you let him cut lose as a reliever and maybe he fills Durans spot. 

Soto might pitch one month this year .... I'm not counting on any HS pitcher given the extreme difficulty of developing them. 

But this three have high ceilings for sure. 

They might fix Abel. But they gave up multiple years of an elite closer and took on a ton of risk. And at least some of that is three years away, after Ryan and Lopez leave. 

[bunsen82]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Soto might pitch one month this year .... I'm not counting on any HS pitcher given the extreme difficulty of developing them. 

But this three have high ceilings for sure. 

They might fix Abel. But they gave up multiple years of an elite closer and took on a ton of risk. And at least some of that is three years away, after Ryan and Lopez leave. 

Abel has 5 pitches that are 100+. Yes he has to wrk on control if remains a starter he is 23, otherwise he is a Duran starter kit. Abel is much further along than Ryan ever was. 
 

Duran has lower velocity, lower K and higher BB.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

24 minutes ago, Elliot said:

I know that some big chips are yet to fall, and more top 100’s will probably be on the move, but as of now it seems as if the Twins FO did just fine in their Duran trade.  Whether or not they should have traded him is certainly open for debate, but the return certainly does not look as weak as some are insisting. 

So let say you are the GM of the Twins.

Most people agree the Twins fell out of contention for this season. Thus, you are sellers. However, you will want to regroup and compete again in 2026 (fan excitement, ticket sales, ads, etc).

Some team has offered you Jhoan Duran, and in return, they are asking for Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait. Would you do that trade to boost your team for next season and the season after?

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs seems ok with the deal, but the article makes Tait sound like a sure thing super star, even though their prospect writer keeps lowering his ranking. It's like they didn't talk?

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

It is easy to trade a Duran. It is very hard to acquire one. 

Really? All it took was 2 prospects. Not even 3. Or 4. Pretty easy if you are dealing with Derek Falvey, apparently. And that is 2 1/3 years of control And one prospect isn’t even close to helping the team we all care about. 

[Kevin Sheehan]

8 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Really? All it took was 2 prospects. Not even 3. Or 4. Pretty easy if you are dealing with Derek Falvey, apparently. And that is 2 1/3 years of control And one prospect isn’t even close to helping the team we all care about. 

I need help with this. Jax has shown us that he's not an elite Closer. In my opinion he goes next. Then what? This year we're obviously done. Stewart? Louie? Who closes in  2026? A retreat? What is the direction? Tell us fans! I'm not asking for much. Give us a sign

[Kevin Sheehan]

Just now, Kevin Sheehan said:

I need help with this. Jax has shown us that he's not an elite Closer. In my opinion he goes next. Then what? This year we're obviously done. Stewart? Louie? Who closes in  2026? A retreat? What is the direction? Tell us fans! I'm not asking for much. Give us a sign

Retread not a retreat. I f#<&%*/g spellcheck

[glunn]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I have a hard time thinking Mauer is going to leave his family and go ride busses in Florida for months coaching A ball catchers.

For one thing I doubt he needs the money.

Maybe a week at spring training.

I think that the new owners might pay for a limo for Mauer.

I also think that Mauer might be willing to take a week here and there to give back to the world by teaching young players how to be great.

 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

Have you watched this offense at all this season… seriously… the defense is horrible, baserunning…. horrible (a ball off the wall a couple of days ago with men on 1st and 2nd no one out and we end up with the bases loaded and don’t score, ,that sums up the season) Walner Larnich, Jeffers all taken steps backwards, yet our team development is good… got it.

The negativity on this board - you all need to find things that bring joy into your life. I like baseball - it's a beautiful game, but it is a game. 

Really, does the result of a Twins game or a season define you? Is it really that important? 

Living in Iowa, I know lots of Cubs fans - now those are fans! They hadn't tasted a World Series or a win for a lifetime! Yet they kept rooting and believing, and finally it happened. Good for them!

Most of you are baseball crybabies, and I'm sick of it. I will not return.

I will love baseball, and the Twins, though - and hope maybe some of you might do the same.

[twinstalker]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Unless one is going off of some very dated prospect rankings, I think the Giants got just as good if not a better return for 2 months of the soft tossing Tyler Rogers.

Uh, no.

[h2oface]

38 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The negativity on this board - you all need to find things that bring joy into your life. I like baseball - it's a beautiful game, but it is a game. 

Really, does the result of a Twins game or a season define you? Is it really that important? 

Living in Iowa, I know lots of Cubs fans - now those are fans! They hadn't tasted a World Series or a win for a lifetime! Yet they kept rooting and believing, and finally it happened. Good for them!

Most of you are baseball crybabies, and I'm sick of it. I will not return.

I will love baseball, and the Twins, though - and hope maybe some of you might do the same.

That’s pretty negative. 😇

I hope that rant brought you some joy. 

[Western SD Fan]

I'm the crazy person that read most of the comments on this thread.  🤪  With that being said, I have a few points to make that I haven't seen as of yet or haven't been fully fleshed out.

1.  The Phillies:  I'm not sure how many teams were still involved in the Duran sweepstakes.  It sounds like the Mets walked away and went to go sign Helsley.  Falvey seemed paranoid on trading Duran to another AL team.  If that is true, then Falvey had already cut his potential suitors by half and may have got the best deal that he thought he could get with the parameters he set for himself.  

2.  The money:  Agree with the previous commenter that the Paddack trade seemed like a smart trade, expiring contract that will save some money.  This one seems like a potential salary dump.  Let's assume that Duran would have commanded $8-$10M next year.  I personally believe they could have received a similar package in the offseason and still dumped said potential payroll.  

3.  Perception:  Idk if this was a Falvey or Pohlad thing, but it seems one of them got sucked up in the national media attention that a Duran trade had to happen.  Almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Maybe they got into the mindset that there was this huge market for Duran, got into it and realized that it wasn't as hot as was advertised, then couldn't get out as they were fielding too many calls.  This is where Falvey needed to be firm and be willing to walk away ala Mason Miller of the A's.  

4.  The Team Sale:  I don't know where the negotiations are at with the sale of the team, but this trade could give some clues about this as well.  This may be a sign they are very close as Falvey is trading everyone that has a contract of any value to save the Pohlads money on the way out.  If that is the case, the Pohlads could do one last kindness to the Twins and fire Baldelli.  They basically have created a rebuilding team and Baldelli can't manage a quasi-pretender much less a clear, rebuilding team.  This is the decision I wished that a new ownership would have been to make much less try to negotiate through the pieces that are left from the current one.

[twinstalker]

I, too, would of course have wanted Painter, but you're not getting Painter for a reliever.  This is a pretty damn good return for Duran.  Not that it really matters, but MLB.com has Tait at 56 and Abel at 92.  I'm not sure I have a fix on Abel, but if there's one team who might "fix" Abel, it's the Twins.  Simply, he walks too many guys.  I trust the Twins pitching development, but this guy's quite far along, so we'll see what they can do with him.

Tait is, appropriately, the headliner.  The most important numbers are age 18 at low A in a tough hitting league and, wait for it, a 19.3% K rate.  This is bordering on fantastic for age and level.  I'm not sold that the Twins need to make catcher a priority (if a top prospect is dangled elsewhere), but this is maybe one of the three best catching prospects out there.  We got a young Wilson Ramos.  Ramos was a full year older with more similar low A stats than you might catch at first glance.  That is, Tait maybe won't seem to hit like Ramos did in the minors, but he projects just was well, arguably better.

In a vacuum the Twins did just fine here if they insist on selling a top reliever and we can't see the other offers they had.  If they can fix Abel, it's a haul.