BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[AceWrigley]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Where did you pick the Twins to finish?

They are finished. 🙂

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

SI gave the Phillies an A- and the Twins a B+. Their write up on the Twins side:

Digital literacy is at an all time low. You are giving a 19 year old from San Francisco more credit than warranted. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Digital literacy is at an all time low. You are giving a 19 year old from San Francisco more credit than warranted. 

SI used to be the gold standard back in my day. That and The Sporting News.

Now its a complete joke. 

Its a shame, if you ask me.

[Vanimal46]

Just now, USAFChief said:

SI used to be the gold standard back in my day. That and The Sporting News.

Now its a complete joke. 

Its a shame, if you ask me.

That’s the way sports journalism is going sadly. I support individuals who I know put in good work (they’re typically independent now) and the ones tied to SI, ESPN, etc. are no better than ChatGPT anymore. Sad, really. 

[FlyingFinn]

28 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I was hoping to see another WS in my lifetime. That just got delayed.

Okay, now you have me curious. How do you delay a lifetime?

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

The Athletic grades it pretty even, but the Twins take on all the risk in this deal.

I disagree. Durans velocity is gradually coming down. He has relied upon his superior velocity. 
 

Here is my take on the trade, the good bad and the ugly.  We have heard of the sellers market and assumed we would get an overpay, by most metrics this seem like fair value for Duran which is disappointing for some. With such a high value for Duran his value depreciates immensely over time.  Like the Rays value is dependent on what the organization believes they can achieve. In SWR case the risk was a lack of velocity (which he never really gained until some recent improvements) for Ryan it was that he was a fastball only pitcher.  Like Ryan I think they will really start working on the secondary pitches with Abel.  
 

Regarding the catcher, the Twins seem to have some specific qualities they look for, and when they have taken a swing they have hit. How many here complained when they took Jeffers in the 2nd round way above rankings, last year in the draft they took Diaw and Ferrer and both are looking solid. Ultimately the risk is you took an A to A+ catcher and not one in AA or AAA. 

I think theTwins have specific plans for both and likely value them higher than the trade calculators. 
 

Beyond the prospects I think then Twins had concerns on Duran continuing to be an elite closer. Between reliever volatility, Durans decreasing velocity, and the trade value diminishing over time we did achieve pretty good value for him. 
 

The ugly is 2 fold. This does appear to be motivated by money. I stated in the Paddack trade that I didn’t think we were selling for monetary reasons, I can no longer state that. It seems pretty clear we are shedding salary. The other is we are tanking for draft capital. I really wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a top 5 pick in the draft. That has additional value to adding better prospects to the org, but I have always said baseball is highly determinant on if you got on a hot streak. Like the Braves who were light buyers a couple years ago they caught lightening in a bottle and won. This team had the talent to catch lightening in a bottle. They were good enough other than the fringe players. We are taking away that chance now likely for the next 2 years especially if we trade Ryan.  As of now it appears we are keeping Jax, which is an odd that it felt like we were in a rush to trade Duran. We still had time. The Twins are still listening.  If they do trade Ryan it really has to be for significant value otherwise the pitchforks are coming. 
 

On a brighter note, the minor league system is getting stocked very well. There are some real opportunities to use some prospect capital to help the big league team in the offseason like we have done in prior years.  Overall I think Falvey did pretty well, but it wasn’t the knock I tout of the park I thought he could achieve.  

[arby58]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

SI used to be the gold standard back in my day. That and The Sporting News.

Now its a complete joke. 

Its a shame, if you ask me.

You sound like 'get off my lawn' grumpy old men.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Jeffers wasn't a developed catcher?

He was. 

And who else?

Jeffers will be Arb 3 next season... Did we not have enough time to produce more catching? 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm sorry, I can't get over this. With all the time & demand for Duran, is this the best he could do? If this is the best he could do at the deadline, I wouldn't trade him, I'd be too embarrassed & quit & let someone who knew what he was doing take over. Social media should roast this guy, but they'll praise him for giving PHI such a good deal.

[Mike Sixel]

 

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

You sound like 'get off my lawn' grumpy old men.

It literally got caught using fake people and AI last year ....

[S Bart]

Well, my guess is that there will be more changes on Thursday. I am happy that they will not trade Ryan or better not do it. My guess is that Castro, Bader and Columbe may be gone tomorrow and possibly Stewart. I would like to them to renew Bader's contract, since one never knows what's next with Buxton and his injuries. Bader also brings hustle to the team. The Correa rumors about returning to Houston (he states that he is open to it) would be fine as he is showing signs of aging. Unfortunately, the Twins would have to pick up part of his salary.  If he remains with the Twins, it is only matter of time before he is moved to another position or gets another foot issue. To me, it now seems as if the owners are doing their best to save money due to their huge debt issue of $400,000. It is sad and attendance will/should suffer. I'll still watch them on TV at times, but I will not spend money on Twins tickets or merchandise for the remainder of the season as I had previously planned. I will take my grandchildren across the river to watch the Saints in August instead. They at least have some fan friendly events including a pig on the field

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You sound like 'get off my lawn' grumpy old men.

False  

I dont just sound like a grumpy old man.

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

False  

I dont just sound like a grumpy old man.

I’ll let you be grumpy and concede a bit on the org trying to save money in these deals. 

[USAFChief]

Just now, bunsen82 said:

I’ll let you be grumpy and concede a bit on the org trying to save money in these deals. 

You'll let me be grumpy??

GET OFF MY LAWN YOU WHIPPERSNAPPER YOU!!1!

[notoriousgod71]

14 minutes ago, GNess said:

I think it is an unfair characterization to label Abel a "4th" starter at this point.

Correct, give him a chance. He may be a 4A starter.

[Shs_2]

The f.o. : Johnson, Falvey , Brad Steil , and other guy need to be shown the door.

 

I'm sorry but theres no way at this time tomorow that is still the best deal for Duran on the table ( like 18 more hours to hard deadline)

 

Phillies probably would of added Miller to the deal smh

[AceWrigley]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

It literally got caught using fake people and AI last year ....

Sounds like Wells Fargo.

[Woof Bronzer]

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You sound like 'get off my lawn' grumpy old men.

If preferring actual human journalism to AI slop makes me a grumpy old man then get off my lawn.  

[S Bart]

1 hour ago, Nshore said:

Next up - Correa to Houston for a flying squirrel and some baseline chalk.

Please...make it be so !!!

[S Bart]

Duran will need to perform in Philly. The fans in that location are pretty rough and ranked as one of the most annoying in all of baseball.

[AceWrigley]

Hey, maybe Falvey is as fed up with ownership as we are and every trade here will be for a catcher, lol.

[DJL44]

I would have been fine with this return for Jax, but wanted another prospect (Seth Johnson would have been nice) in return for Duran. "Proven closer" still carries some extra weight.

I will point out that Duran wasn't nearly as highly regarded as Abel when the Twins acquired him for Escobar. If it turns out well, the Twins just got Jeffers and Ober (or Jeffers and Jax) in return for Duran, however, as has been pointed out elsewhere, the Twins took on more risk in the deal.

The really sad part to me is the Twins missed their opportunity to get Duran to sign a deal that locked him up with the Twins until he was 30. They're going to miss out on Jeffers as well. Those are huge failures by the current front office. The Twins have to extend their talent below cost when they have the opportunity.

I hope this means they are going to be able to dump Correa's salary on Houston. There is no reason at all to pay him $32M a season to play for a rebuilding team. Sell Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Jax and Stewart as well.

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, GNess said:

I think it is an unfair characterization to label Abel a "4th" starter at this point.

Too high you think?

[S Bart]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

SI used to be the gold standard back in my day. That and The Sporting News.

Now its a complete joke. 

Its a shame, if you ask me.

Well, even though it is no longer a weekly publication and has faded,,,at least SI still has the swimsuit issue, 

[Blyleven2011]

54 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

I'm surprised they didn't. 😂

I would have preferred painter and trade rumors said the twins were  asking for him and moved on to other teams , I guess they didn't move on , they just settled for second best  ...

I'm sure if we would have gotten painter they would have made us take Kepler  ,     kinda like the paddack trade , they made Detroit take dobnak   ....

[T.O.]

2 hours ago, Nshore said:

Next up - Correa to Houston for a flying squirrel and some baseline chalk.

So there is room for hope.

Either way we have a Rocky road ahead.

[USAFChief]

You know who made out like a bandit in this deal?

@Matthew Trueblood

[Randy Griffith]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

It's not Painter. 

A minor league catching prospect and a pitcher currently on the Phillies roster.

This front office needs to go.

Wow, this was not what I thought we would get in return.  Two prospects for a proven MLB pitcher under team control through 2027 and the most dominant closer in the league?  Let's hope they treated the front office to a really nice dinner (and here's to you, Dave Winfield)!  Now is NOT the time to be Minnesota Nice!  

[Aggies7]

15 minutes ago, S Bart said:

Duran will need to perform in Philly. The fans in that location are pretty rough and ranked as one of the most annoying in all of baseball.

Correct on both counts. You’ll hear more boos in one game in Philly then you’ll hear all year at TF

[Riverbrian]

From an in game entertainment standpoint. We lost a lot. 

The Duran entrance was perhaps... the only moment of produced game experience dramatics to bring some energy into the place. 

With that gone... the produced entertainment trying to create energy will all fall on TC Bear. That's a lot of pressure for any Bear to bear.

I always bet on Louie the Loon. But, I can't say I rise to my feet as the racers hit the home stretch.