There is Still Time For Minnesota Twins to Recast Griffin Jax as a Starting Pitcher

[Cody Schoenmann]

As MLB's trade deadline looms, your 2025 Minnesota Twins (who rise as one, mind you) continue to grow increasingly more likely to undergo their first substantial sell-off since parting ways with then-ace starting pitcher José Berríos at the 2021 trade deadline. Veteran players in the final season of their contracts in Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, and Chris Paddack are the likely candidates to depart from the land of 10,000 lakes. Yet, if the club were to push the envelope and undergo a genuinely significant changeup, Twins Territory could be subject to witnessing fan favorites like Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, or Joe Ryan exit the graces of 1 Twins Way. 

Nevertheless, with a soft sell (at the very least) likely, the Twins could find themselves in a unique position to test new methods of operation come August. If Minnesota finds itself in that scenario, team decision-makers should consider revisiting a roster shakeup they were exploring early last offseason: converting Griffin Jax back into a starting pitcher. For those who don't remember (amidst the emotional whirlwind that has been the first half of the 2025 regular season), Jax and Twins decision-makers were contemplating converting the starter-turned-reliever back into a starting pitcher. Ultimately, the 30-year-old elected to stay in the bullpen in late January. 

Despite possessing a subpar 4.12 ERA, Jax has performed well as Minnesota's primary set-up reliever, generating a 1.91 FIP, 64-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while possessing some of the best raw stuff in the sport. Pitching backwards, the hard-tossing righty has been able to effectively attack hitters of either-handedness, utilizing his elite sweeper and change. Jax still possesses a well-above-league-average fastball velocity. However, the pitch has been hit hard this season, resulting in him using it less (16% of the time) than ever before since he converted to a full-time reliever in 2022. 

Another reason Jax's fastball usage rate is down is that he has implemented a sinker and cutter this season, pitches he has used a combined 13% of the time. The Air Force product naturally utilizes his sinker as a fastball variation to move in on right-handed hitters and cutter as a fastball variation to dive in on left-handed hitters. Still, considering he now has three fastball variations, Jax is functionally using his fastball at 29% of the time, which resides in the same ballpark as his prior usage rates. Nevertheless, what is essentially a three-pitch mix while being able to add extra horizontal movement to his fastball variations, Jax possesses the diverse pitch arsenal necessary to transition into a starting pitcher. 

In the past, Jax has mentioned that he is an adrenaline-based pitcher, meaning he believes he thrives in high-leverage scenarios and can add more velocity and movement to his pitches. While this is likely the case behind his significantly improved velocity and movement profiles on his breaking and offspeed pitches since turning into a reliever, there is reason to believe he makes more mistakes due to the rush of adrenaline he endures, causing him to make simple mistakes like misplaying balls that should be easily fielded or overthrowing first base on what should be routine plays for a major league pitcher. 

Again, Jax possesses the arsenal and frame necessary to stick in the rotation, and if the club elects to part ways with Paddack at the July 31 trade deadline, a rotation spot could open up for Jax. Barring further injury, the impending return of Pablo López and Zebby Matthews will crowd the starting rotation. Yet, with uncertainty surrounding when or if Bailey Ober will rejoin the club's rotation and performance concerns surrounding David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson, there could be more space to maneuver Jax back into the rotation than previously anticipated. 

Now, Jax departing from the bullpen would meaningfully thin the unit. Yet, with fellow high-leverage arms Jhoan Durán, Louis Varland, and Brock Stewart also performing at well-above-average rates, there is reason to believe the club could absorb the impact of losing one of their late-inning right-handed throwing arms. The club would need to demote Jax to the minors (likely to High-A so he could train in Fort Myers) to stretch him out over multiple weeks. Yet, his short-term absence from the team could yield the fruits of the club unearthing an above-average starting pitcher who still has two-and-a-half seasons of club control remaining. Minnesota still has multiple years of team control left for frontline arms López, Ryan, and (hopefully) Ober. Yet, adding another frontline arm to the mix would further bolster Minnesota's chances of returning to the postseason, while mitigating the growing pains younger arms like Festa, Woods Richardson, and Matthews are still enduring at the major league level. 

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[dberthia]

Well, this IS the team that thought it would be a good idea to put Royce Lewis in CF and Miguel Sano in RF. This move seems comparable.

[Dman]

I think I'd rather use the time to have the young guys figure it out.  There is already talk of Jax being traded and he gets expensive faster than the younger arms. I'm not sure I see the benefit unless you think he would be a top of the rotation arm.

I thought they talked about this to start the year and Jax felt more comfortable in his current role?  Starting is so different from relieving I'm not sure how that would go.  I guess if he pitched well as a starter it would increase his value, but the downside is if he hurts his arm with a starters load then we are really in a pickle.

If anyone could do it it would be Jax.  Guy is just a tough competitor. Personally I'd be inclined to let him do what what he does best which is be an elite pen arm.

[Doctor Gast]

You can't have too much pitching. When Lopez our anchor went down, it would have been nice if Jax could have stepped in & picked up the slack. We have been floundering in the rotation except for Ryan & now SWR & Festa has started to pitch well again.

But I'm not in favor of selling off our players, it's very complicated.

[Vanimal46]

7 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

The club would need to demote Jax to the minors (likely to High-A so he could train in Fort Myers) to stretch him out over multiple weeks. Yet, his short-term absence from the team could yield the fruits of the club unearthing an above-average starting pitcher who still has two-and-a-half seasons of club control remaining.

Oh my. You’re talking about doing this in-season? Come on man. 

Anyone can look in the archives last winter and see me beating the drum for this happening. That ship sailed months ago. Prepping his arm for the additional workload is a winter activity 

[Pdxtwins]

Why?  You don't take away a strength to create a weakness. Almost all of relievers were failed starters.  

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Oh my. You’re talking about doing this in-season? Come on man. 

Anyone can look in the archives last winter and see me beating the drum for this happening. That ship sailed months ago. Prepping his arm for the additional workload is a winter activity 

I was right there with you. It was dumb for the Twins not even considering it. We were definitely in the minority on this site though. 

And I agree that it would be incredibly dumb to attempt it midseason. He should be traded if we're being honest, but I can understand how many would prefer to keep one of Jax or Duran. 

[tony&rodney]

Jax must be highly sought after by several teams. Listen to the offers and bite only if delicious.

Starting? That was clearly an offseason decision .... that ship has sailed. 

Soon, before August most likely, the Twins will have Matthews back and perhaps Ober. The Twins waited too long to find a buyer for Paddack. 

[Vanimal46]

35 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I was right there with you. It was dumb for the Twins not even considering it. We were definitely in the minority on this site though. 

And I agree that it would be incredibly dumb to attempt it midseason. He should be traded if we're being honest, but I can understand how many would prefer to keep one of Jax or Duran. 

Out of the 2 I would keep Duran. He’s got the most sturdy frame to withstand future arm injuries. 

[Mike Sixel]

No. Just no. 

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You can't have too much pitching. When Lopez our anchor went down, it would have been nice if Jax could have stepped in & picked up the slack.

When you pitch an inning at a time, you can't just 'step in' and pick up 4, let alone 5 or 6 innings.

[jimbo92107]

First, it's a reversable decision. If he sucks as a starter, Jax can move back to the pen.

Second, the Twins appear to be good at converting starting prospects to bullpen arms. If one of them can finally become a starter, that may provide hope to the rest of the guys that still dream of being a starter. 

Third, Jax doesn't need to be great to become a starter for the Twins. Not like this squad is going anywhere.

[Doctor Wu]

We've talked about this before, and sure, it makes some sense on one level, especially if Jax still feels like he can take on that role. But doing it the middle of the season? No way. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Jax must be highly sought after by several teams. Listen to the offers and bite only if delicious.

Starting? That was clearly an offseason decision .... that ship has sailed. 

Soon, before August most likely, the Twins will have Matthews back and perhaps Ober. The Twins waited too long to find a buyer for Paddack. 

Agree 100 %.

[Riverbrian]

Can you flip a switch? I wouldn't. 

Can you dial it upward? Yes you can. Get the innings count up from 70 to 90 or 100 innings. 

But... I get it. Boxes. Players must be placed in boxes. There is either or and nothing in between. He either starts and throws 180 innings or he makes one inning appearances for 60 innings a year. Nothing in between. 

Can you hang a zero and how many can you hang? 

[arby58]

9 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I was right there with you. It was dumb for the Twins not even considering it. We were definitely in the minority on this site though. 

And I agree that it would be incredibly dumb to attempt it midseason. He should be traded if we're being honest, but I can understand how many would prefer to keep one of Jax or Duran. 

In the winter, the Twins appeared to have a surplus of starting pitching. If you take Jax out of high leverage situations, my guess is you would lose as many games as you might win with him starting. Besides, when you've spent years working in one-inning  situations, it isn't as easy as flipping a switch to move to 5 or 6 innings of work. There are far fewer examples of relievers successfully going back to being starters than starters becoming relievers - and Duran, Varland (and Jax) are prime examples. 

[Bodie]

Guy having a hellofatime getting three outs... lets have him try 15 to 18!

[Paul Walerius]

12 hours ago, dberthia said:

Well, this IS the team that thought it would be a good idea to put Royce Lewis in CF and Miguel Sano in RF. This move seems comparable.

They only people that discussed Jax as a starter were the people at Twins Daily.   Jax is were they want him and that isn't changing.  They have guys at AAA that they would bring up if they sell off any starters.

[jmlease1]

Yeah...no.

I get that we're short on starters right now because Lopez, Matthews, Ober, and Morris are injured. It really sucks that once again our injury problems have hit on the same position at the same time (a few years ago it was the OF), but that's not a reason to make a desperation/panic move that would have little chance of success and a large chance of failure.

Yes, Jax is a different and better pitch now than when he flunked out as a starter...but it doesn't mean that he's well-equipped now to transition back to the role and succeed. Unless you think he can still go max effort while trying to pitch 5-6 innings (let's be kind and call this overly optimistic) then he's almost certainly going to lose some velocity on his fastball, and that gain he's made has been important to his success in the bullpen. Maybe he can do better because his other offerings are better now, but it's a big maybe. And the fact that he'd have to go down to AAA to get stretched out only makes it more likely we'd lose more games while trying to fill the starting pitching hole...which would be close to getting filled again by the time Jax is ready to start again.

Basically, this scheme seems like one designed to help tank this season, make the team sellers, and basically give up. (which the most likely result is a windfall for the hopefully outgoing ownership group as they dump payroll; it's highly unlikely that it will result in increased prospects for 2026) I suppose it'll also guarantee the front office gets fired and a housecleaning occurs under the new ownership, which certainly seems like the primary goal for many around here anyways...

[BillyBallLives]

The time to secure your rotation is in the winter, not July. That said, I think the Twins set themselves up for 2025 to have very good rotation. 

-- Lopes
-- Ober
-- Ryan
-- SWR
-- Paddack
-- Festa
-- Matthews


No need to revisit why it hasn't worked out as planned.

[old nurse]

Derek Lowe was the last player that I can think of that went from established major league reliever to established major league starter. That was 25 years ago.  The Santanas and Sales that were relievers starting out were only there a couple of years in their young 20s development stage. Jax is a 30 year old.  It doesn’t make sense to risk an arm for the limited chance of success.

[old nurse]

7 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

The time to secure your rotation is in the winter, not July. That said, I think the Twins set themselves up for 2025 to have very good rotation. 

-- Lopes
-- Ober
-- Ryan
-- SWR
-- Paddack
-- Festa
-- Matthews


No need to revisit why it hasn't worked out as planned.

The Twins did not set themselves up for a good rotation. No number eight starter, questions for 4-7

[Steve Lein]

Yeah, to be quite honest this time was run out before they actually switched him to a reliever... I don't know why this article keeps getting put out every 6 months.

His stuff improved because of the switch. It will do the opposite in reverse.

[TheLeviathan]

[jorgenswest]

Let’s suppose this is an idea worth trying. It seems like the right time. They don’t have a viable fifth starter and they could be in selling mode.

I don’t think it would be wise to send him to the minors to stretch out. Could they stretch him out in the majors? They don’t have a fifth starter. Start him in that slot and maybe he pushes towards 40 pitches. Make it a bullpen day. The next start he might get through 3 innings and around 45 pitches. It seems like this would give a better chance for the Twins to win those games than sending him out.

Should they wait until next spring? I wouldn’t. Let’s find out if Jax is a playoff caliber starter as we close this season. If not return him to the relief role.

I don’t know if it is worth considering. If the linked article hadn’t sourced Jayce Tingler in stating the Twins were considering it I would dismiss it as a possibility. Maybe the Twins considered and dismissed it this spring.

[AKTwinsFan]

With Paddack on the way out it's likely. We got others who could step up into his role as a setup guy for the closer.

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

When you pitch an inning at a time, you can't just 'step in' and pick up 4, let alone 5 or 6 innings.

Totally agree, IF Jax had been prepared in spring training, & maybe used in long relief & some spot starts; he could have stepped up when Lopez went down. But arguably, he wasn't, so he wouldn't be available. I wasn't against him preparing for a SP role last spring training & I still wouldn't be next spring season to have more options, whether we trade off any SP (which I'm not for) or not.

[LambchoP]

Jax is one of the best relievers in the league. Why mess around with that. We've got plenty of SP in the minors leagues with a lot of potential. They should prioritize developing the kids we have coming up.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Derek Lowe was the last player that I can think of that went from established major league reliever to established major league starter.

Uh...there's been quite a few over the last 3 seasons. This is becoming a fairly common practice now, due to the low risk and high reward. 

3 of those converted relievers to starters earned CY votes last season - Lugo, Lopez, and King. 

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Jax is one of the best relievers in the league. Why mess around with that. We've got plenty of SP in the minors leagues with a lot of potential. They should prioritize developing the kids we have coming up.

What if you're passing up on the chance of him being Michael King? 

He struggled as a starter right away and was then relegated to the pen until he proved he had grown as a pitcher and was given another chance as a starter and has flourished.

Bubic, moreso due to rehab was put into the bullpen last season but was given another chance to win a spot in the rotation and has done extremely well. 

The Twins haven't provided that sort of chance despite Jax saying he wanted to try to start again.